Sreister wrote:Ghost of Kleine wrote:Sreister wrote:You're missing the one big thing with him. Availability is the best ability. He's 31 and downhill, and somewhat injury prone. All that makes sense on paper, sure. But that's assuming he comes in and plays 82. That's not a promise and it's something you can't just glance over when you talk about numbers. It's deeper than just "hes better than x and y together".
That's when it comes down to whether the risk is worth it. No one is worried about the money assuming we get rid of Tyler. I think if we knew he would be who we think he is, without getting hurt, then yeah I think it's an easy move to make. But it's not so cut and dry and that's the big 'other side' you ignored in your argument.
Honestly, So what about the risk of injury, Injuries are just part of the game. Any player can get injured at any point of their career, therefore you can say the same of any player.
For example Warren who everyone's clamoring to hold onto at all costs, has had a lengthy injury history and is lucky if he plays about half the season each year.
You just can't predict injuries, but to avoid taking any risks that would allow us to get better, due to fear of the possibility of injury or reinjury is a model for continuual mediocrity.
At some point, You have to take a gamble if you're going to change, progress and improve.
There's no reward without risk. Right now we are at the very bottom of the league, We're a laughingstock, At what point exactly does it become reasonable to take a risk on a proven, productive player so that our team can start improving??
Next, about his age, 31 is too old??? ......have you looked at his production, now compare that to Johnson or even Collison:
Mike Conley https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/conlemi01.html .
21.1 points/ 3.4 rebounds/ 6.4 assists / 2pt% 48.3/ 3pt% 36.4/ Efg% 50.7/ Free throw % 84.5.
Tyler Johnson:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/johnsty01.html .
10.9 points/ 3.9 rebounds/ 2.9 assists/ for his percentages I'll use his career averages, as he played for two different teams: 2pt% 47.7/ 3pt% 36.4/ Efg% 50.4/ Free throw % 77.1
Darren Collison https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/collida01.html .
11.2 points/ 3.1 rebounds/ 6.0 assists/ 2 pt% 49.2 / 3 pt% 40.7/ Efg% 52.7/ Free throw % 83.2.
So fairly similar in statistical percentages with Collison shooting a slightly better clip. But with the points per game edge going to Conley last season. And by the way, they're the same age of 31yrs old too.
I get that Johnson has given us reason to hope for something better, But he's a severely overpaid decent backup guard at best, and in no way a long term solution, Much less capable of seriously leading us back to relevance.
Butmaybe I'm just missing something here, So please help me, Who exactly would you suggest is a better candidate ( that we can realistically obtain) to help guide our team to take the next step, Also with respect to their production, defensive skillset, experience, etc?
Also, Given the cap space that we have to work with which is hardly anything more than the veterans minimum as it currently stands, The odds of us even securing a player even of Collisons' caliber in free agency would be somewhat far fetched.
If you consider that he already made 10 million contractually last year and has improved across the board. But in also considering that Indiana will have significant cap space to resign him IF they so choose.
And since they made it to the playoffs at least, and are a better team than us currently, Why would he come to a lesser team for only equal to lesser money possibly?
Outside of a trade, we'd obviously have to overpay drastically for any decent to good player, which again, we just don't have the money to do.
Also, in what section of my post did I ignore that he has an injury history. I apologize if my context was not clear enough apparently when I said that having his contract for only 2 years (only one more year than Johnson's) would minimize the risk..........
And that the bigger picture is the longterm advantage of the progression of our young players that he would bring, in addition to the biggest return, In that he would afford us over $30 million in expiring cap space at exactly the time when the biggest name veteran star players happen to become available?
I mean, And I hope no ones arguing that Johnson could be the long term answer for us at point guard?
I do actually like Tyler Johnson and his scrappiness. But let's not fool ourselves that he'll be anything more than a career backup guard at best.
He's got heart, But he's a 6-8 million dollar a year player at best. And really should not be tying up 20 million in cap space for us.
And honestly, If I'm choosing between him, and the ability to sign one of Lillard, Beal, Westbrook, Paul George, Giannis, Gobert, or Anthony Davis ( using Conley's massive expiring contract) ??? Then sorry Tyler, But I'll pack your bags for you myself.
Just ask Portland about injury prone players. If your attitude about "all players can get injured" then I'd not prefer you to pick players for my franchise. There's absolutely stock in whether a player has past injuries, what they are, how often they get them. Don't brush it off like it's meaningless. It's not.
Also, I don't know what my answer would be, and honestly I don't need to. I can absolutely not want a player and not exactly have an alternative. I'm not going to claim I have all the answers, I just know I'd think more than twice about trading a perfectly serviceable 3 man under a great contract for someone that has a nasty injury on their resume.
If he didn't have it, honestly I'd be all for it and really like the idea of a good get PG for us. I'm not discounting anything you say, other than you are minimizing the injury history by lumping it in a "everyone can get hurt" when it's clear that some players are more prone than others, and he has one of the worst injuries you can ever have as an athlete under his belt.
Lol....Funny man, But sure, I'll ask Portland about injured players, after they're out of the playoffs. Which is coincedently where we want to be
.....
But seriously, it's not about having a cavalier attitude towards injuries, Because I don't.And you make a very good point, in that an ACL injury is terrible for sure!!!
But I am also a realist, and in that I realize that in this league, There will be good and productive players that of course have injury histories, etc. it's just an unfortunate reality of the game, and as such needs to of course be considered.
But also to be considered is that every player, situation, and recovery is not the same, for reference:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1177651-10-nba-players-that-suffered-torn-acls-and-recovered-better-than-ever#slide0.
Also Kyle Lowry as another example ( even though I hate his abrasive attitude, and lack of clutch play in the playoffs) has returned from an acl injury and has consistently helped lead his team be competitive and find their way into the postseason, by bring productive and contributing during the regular season.
Which is what I'm pri.primarily hoping for from Conley. And hopefully it would result in our young players advance and take bigs steps in their progression.
So to deny your team the opportunity to improve by the contributions of said player, and what he could bring to your team, is in my opinion, just shortsighted and counterproductive to any scale of improvement.
It's really ok, some people are just willing to take risks, and some never are.....But it's also not like an ACL injury is a career ending death sentence for a player anymore either. As referenced in the link above.
Also, there's a reason why ALL nba franchises have both medical and training staffs on hand. Because in reality, they too realize that injuries to players are just a part of the game, and WILL eventually happen.
I mean exactly how many players are out there currently, without some sort of injury history?
And with respect to Warren, and him being serviceable and on a good contract. When was the last time that he actually played more than half the season.
The point being, he also has an extensive injury history himself and has proven to be consistently injury prone.
So while he might be on a decent contract, How much does that really matter if he can't see the floor and contribute for half the season every year???
His inability to stay healthy and see the floor, at least to me, thus neutralizes the overall value of his contract at the least.
So you're not really losing that much value in the trade as both Conley and Warren are players with injury histories, except that we don't have a glut, or are overloaded with options at the point guard are we?
Also, with respect to your point, IF his injury history is considered to be profound enough taken jnto consideration for the trade, along with the fact that they're looking to move him so that they can rebuild.
Then really, We should( if Jones is halfway competent as a negotiator) be able to acquire him at a bargain. Or even possibly obtain and additional asset in return.
But in acquiring Conley, we are addressing one area of greatest need at point guard with a playoff proven, still highly productive veteran point guard. Who still operates at a high level defensively too.
He also happens to become one of the biggest expiring contracts out there, right when we could seek to acquire an actual game changing max caliber player in 2021 free agency.
Can you really not see the intrisic long term value in that. Or in (Conley's) his ability to greatly mentor our young guards , given his vast experience and skillset??
And fwiw, As far as durability is concerned, The last time I checked, We still happen to have one of, if not the best training and medical staff in the league.
But not to "Brush off" or treat your very valid points about injury history as " meaningless ", because I do get where your coming from. And your concerns are valid obviously. Again ACL injuries are quite serious things.
And again, it's not that I don't agree with you on your position of potential risk. You're of course entitled to your own opinions.
But in this particular case, the overall reward in both the long and short term outweigh the POTENTIAL risks.
Please consider, We are the 2nd worst team in the league, with no other clear avenues of improvement aside from a trade of assets.
That's why I was asking your opinion on other options that might be available to us realistically. Because I just don't see any other realistic alternatives honestly at this point.
We've been absolutely terrible and near unwatchable for close to 10 years now. That's a hard pill for any fan to swallow, Especially one who's stuck it out with this team for over 40 years now.
I'm personally just at the point that I'm willing to take moderate risks, IF it has the possibility of leading us to an overall improvement and a chance at reclaiming our relevance once again as a team.
At this point, I'm just opposed to just sitting by and watching our front office just continuually do lateral moves at best, feed us the repetitive lip service , and then hit the reset button every year.
But back to the point at hand, Remember that the league has any free agency or traded players go through medical evaluations and they have to pass certain standards in order to be signed, or for the trade to be completed. So it's not like we'd be going into this blind and uninformed now is it?
It's not like franchises don't take precautionary measures ok. Even a front office such as ours seemingly devoid of rationale and common sense, would be subject to these precautionary measures for exactly the reasons that you specified.
All in all, If they as the professionals deem such a proposal as being too risky, th hen it obviously won't happen.
I still feel that Warren WILL in fact be traded, that's my personal opinion. And again, it's perfectly fine for us to have differing views and perspectives as well. I still value your input man, as I do everyone's on this platform.
But for now, We'll just have to disagree on acceptable risk scenarios cool.