2019 post draft, free agency and trade speculation: The Return Of Cash Considerations

[Desertfox]

If we lose Oubre don't forget we traded away our other starting quality SF who was on a reasonable deal... Now that I think about it, it would be par for the course for us to lose Oubre.

I will find it hilarious if we pick up RHJ, seeing how we could have drafted Clarke.

[bwgood77]

Kelly Oubre played well as a starter last year.

It was a small sample size.

He's a talented and young player.

He's never consistently played at a high level.

He's never had the opportunity to be a top option in an offense for an extended period of time.

It's unclear what Kelly Oubre will play like over the next 4 years, with a pretty wide range of outcomes.

It's possible he gets a ridiculous contract and lives up to it, it's also possible he gets a small deal and doesn't even live up to that.

All of these statements can be true.

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This is true, and he likely falls in between the high and low end ranges. I think he is a great energy spark player, but I don't think he's a high iq player you want as a major focal point of your offense or team. Klay Thompson, for example, is ending a 4 year, $69 million contract. I think that was a solid contract. I think if you were to swap Oubre into that role (or I could have used a number of other examples), the results are not even close to what you get. I'm not even sure what type of player to compare him to....because he's not a shooter...so you have to think of wings who are average defensively with high energy plays at times, but very inconsistent. He doesn't move the ball and has average efficiency scoring.

I guess he's maybe somewhat similar to a Demarre Carroll type?

[itlnsunsfan]

You're talking an extremely small sample size. Oubre played a lot of minutes all season. He happened to start some which coincided after getting Tyler Johnson...Tyler Johnson was the bigger impact player when he was added...now this was in part to the simple big upgrade from the previous PG but that had the most to do with the record.

Oubre should not be a near max player. I still have a hard time believing someone will pay him close to $20 million but if they do I think long term it would be very unwise to match it even if it might make us a little better short term.

"Tyler Johnson was the bigger impact player when he was added"

Show me what you're basing this claim on.

Again, .500 in the 12 games Oubre started for us, .186 without him. That's a third of our season win total in those 12 games and the single most compelling impact statistic I've seen in relation to our winning percentage. But if you're looking for more evidence:

https://arizonasports.com/story/1990086/the-if-and-how-questions-of-the-suns-paying-rfa-kelly-oubre-jr/

"In the 40 games Oubre played, he had a team-high 108.6 offensive rating, a solid points output for a team per 100 possessions. Phoenix’s five lineups that featured Oubre in it for at least 30 minutes had net ratings of -4.2, -1.0, 1.8, 4.3 and 9.4. Compared to the Suns’ net rating on the season of -8.9 and those are pretty good numbers."

"Of the six lineups the Suns featured for 50 minutes or more from December on that involved Booker, the best four also included Oubre at -4.2, 0.5, 4.3 and 9.4 net ratings. The other two net ratings not involving Oubre were -9.8 and -16.2."

"To simplify that, the team played better than they usually do when Oubre was on the floor and especially when he was alongside Booker."

There's more there.

Oubre has shown to be a difference maker on a team that is absolutely desperate for difference makers. These guys are not easy to find, and definitely not as easy as going out and shopping for a cheaper one with all my cap space. You're gonna let this guy go for a few million more per year? Madness.

It means when Oubre started was when we finally had a capable PG. He played plenty of minutes long before that and we still were losing a lot. We finally had that mini win streak a few games after Tyler Johnson showed up...and when he went down we didn't win much more.

Johnson arrived February 6th. We lost the next 5 straight games with him playing. Oubre was inserted into the starting line-up on February 21st. We were .500 from that point on for the next 12 games, including the two games after Tyler went down, in which we went 1-1. After that, Oubre went down. Additionally, there is the information I quoted from the article outlining Oubre's impact in his entire time with the team. To say Tyler Johnson was the higher impact addition is doubtful at best and smacks of being disingenuous.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Personally, I would not pay Oubre more than $12M per year.

More than that you have a bad contract.

He is a nice player as a energy wing who can score, but he has too many limitations and he has played already four years in the league...so no much room to improve THAT much.

I would be OK going into the season with Bridges/Cam Johnson at SF.

Around 12 would be ideal. I'd personally go a little higher especially if they could get a favorable structure like say a 5 year deal that starts high decreases yearly and has a team option at the end.

As far as future development he is only 23 and was viewed as very raw coming into the league so he's has more potential development than your typical 4 year guy. Plus people love to talk about the suns being a bad development structure but I don't think Washington was exactly great for that either.

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[BobbieL]

Or sign Jeremy Lamb and start him next to Booker. He's turned into a nice two way player.

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Lamb would be intgeresting. He has developed nicely.

the Suns would get a pick for Gordon. Might help facilitate a Josh Jackson trade - three team deal.

I still want Sato though at PG.

Oubre will be a tough call - I can see one team overpaying and the Suns will have to be smart about it and how they can possibly think he improves

Lamb is also a good example how some guys develop at different rates. It took him like 6 seasons to become a good starter. But he has absolutely been one the past two seasons.

Not to use this as a reason to severely overpay oubre but it's an example that no one KNOWS what he will really be the next 4 years.

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Very true. And with the way Jones has operated the last year - anybody really predicting anything is probably not going to be right. He has been very quiet in his moves. I get Ariza was on the block but most people thought it would be for an expiring and a draft pick - like KCP and the Lakers 1st. He was targeting Dillon Brooks - young guy, controlled contact


Anderson for Tyler
the draft picks

I think we as fans - when the moves are made - may not get the sizzle of DLo - but will understand the moves and how they all work together - which includes Aron Baynes.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Kelly Oubre played well as a starter last year.

It was a small sample size.

He's a talented and young player.

He's never consistently played at a high level.

He's never had the opportunity to be a top option in an offense for an extended period of time.

It's unclear what Kelly Oubre will play like over the next 4 years, with a pretty wide range of outcomes.

It's possible he gets a ridiculous contract and lives up to it, it's also possible he gets a small deal and doesn't even live up to that.

All of these statements can be true.

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This is true, and he likely falls in between the high and low end ranges. I think he is a great energy spark player, but I don't think he's a high iq player you want as a major focal point of your offense or team. Klay Thompson, for example, is ending a 4 year, $69 million contract. I think that was a solid contract. I think if you were to swap Oubre into that role (or I could have used a number of other examples), the results are not even close to what you get. I'm not even sure what type of player to compare him to....because he's not a shooter...so you have to think of wings who are average defensively with high energy plays at times, but very inconsistent. He doesn't move the ball and has average efficiency scoring.

I guess he's maybe somewhat similar to a Demarre Carroll type?

The shooting thing is interesting to me because he actually has a good stroke so it wouldn't surprise me at all if his percentages rose. And it's not like he's pre 2018 TJ Warren from 3. He's been low 30's on a realtively high volume. Like slightly better shot selection alone could bump him up.

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[LukasBMW]

Read on Twitter

I like oubre but if some teams wants to give him $20 mil per year I'd wish him luck in his next city.

Add: I have no idea how reliable this source is so take with a grain of salt.



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LOL. This is EXACTLY why you don't trade TJ away for nothing without first resigning Oubre.

The decision making of our front office is at an all time low.

This off season has been nothing short of a disaster.

[Waylay13]

Small sample size big sample size does it matter? Those who are opposed to matching a huge offer for Kelly ask yourselves a serious question. What do you want the suns to do with the money they don’t spend on Oubre? Because they don’t want to create money to sign a 1x all-star who led his team to the playoffs and played close with the 76ers who is a pg which is our biggest need. Nobody who would warrant a big contract wants to come to Phoenix. So what do you guys really want to do with the money we save by not matching Oubre? Who do you think is coming that’s better?

OK lets clear something up Kelly's cap hold is only around 9 million. lets say that we spend all of our remaining cap space on a point guard around 13 million. The Kelly gets offered 20 million from another team, that 11 million is over the cap and looking at the some home games from the last couple years it is clear that the Suns havent been bring in a lot of money. So that extra 11 million may be over what the Suns as a Org. have over all of their other cost. I dont know if this the case but it is a possible reason why you dont give kelly all of the money he may get offered.

[RedIndian]

Oubre at 20 million will be a bad contract very soon.

20 million is third best player on the team salary, and Oubre simply isn't that good.

Oubre's value is a high-energy, versatile defensive forward, who can also contribute decently on offense.

He's too inefficient an offensive player, and too tunnel-visioned to ever be the third best player on a team.

Robert Covington is a far more impactful player than Oubre (and that's what you hope Oubre turns into) - so his contract should essentially be the benchmark for Oubre's deal.

[Crives]

Small sample size big sample size does it matter? Those who are opposed to matching a huge offer for Kelly ask yourselves a serious question. What do you want the suns to do with the money they don’t spend on Oubre? Because they don’t want to create money to sign a 1x all-star who led his team to the playoffs and played close with the 76ers who is a pg which is our biggest need. Nobody who would warrant a big contract wants to come to Phoenix. So what do you guys really want to do with the money we save by not matching Oubre? Who do you think is coming that’s better?

OK lets clear something up Kelly's cap hold is only around 9 million. lets say that we spend all of our remaining cap space on a point guard around 13 million. The Kelly gets offered 20 million from another team, that 11 million is over the cap and looking at the some home games from the last couple years it is clear that the Suns havent been bring in a lot of money. So that extra 11 million may be over what the Suns as a Org. have over all of their other cost. I dont know if this the case but it is a possible reason why you dont give kelly all of the money he may get offered.

It only makes sense to overpay Kelly if we first get rid of our expirings for better long term players first (Jackson/Tyler/Baynes).

Yes we could spend our 14m and then resign Oubre to a ridiculous offer over the cap... but that will eat into the ~20m cap space we expect to have next summer.

I would not be opposed to matching up to ~16.5m if this is done after clearing our expirings for good long term players. Otherwise I don’t think we should match more then ~14.5 per.

[Qwigglez]

Don’t think anyone is offering Oubre $20Mil a year. I think he will likely see the best offer being 4 year $64million, someone might do 4 year $72mil. Close to $20 a year but not quite there.
If someone offers that though we are matching without a doubt. That’s about where most players his age group who show a glimmer of potential will likely land contracts. Aaron Gordon received a similar contract.

[Dr Manute]

Read on Twitter

I like oubre but if some teams wants to give him $20 mil per year I'd wish him luck in his next city.

Add: I have no idea how reliable this source is so take with a grain of salt.



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LOL. This is EXACTLY why you don't trade TJ away for nothing without first resigning Oubre.

The decision making of our front office is at an all time low.

This off season has been nothing short of a disaster.

Looks like Cam Johnson might get more playing time then I originally thought.

[bwgood77]

"Tyler Johnson was the bigger impact player when he was added"

Show me what you're basing this claim on.

Again, .500 in the 12 games Oubre started for us, .186 without him. That's a third of our season win total in those 12 games and the single most compelling impact statistic I've seen in relation to our winning percentage. But if you're looking for more evidence:

https://arizonasports.com/story/1990086/the-if-and-how-questions-of-the-suns-paying-rfa-kelly-oubre-jr/

"In the 40 games Oubre played, he had a team-high 108.6 offensive rating, a solid points output for a team per 100 possessions. Phoenix’s five lineups that featured Oubre in it for at least 30 minutes had net ratings of -4.2, -1.0, 1.8, 4.3 and 9.4. Compared to the Suns’ net rating on the season of -8.9 and those are pretty good numbers."

"Of the six lineups the Suns featured for 50 minutes or more from December on that involved Booker, the best four also included Oubre at -4.2, 0.5, 4.3 and 9.4 net ratings. The other two net ratings not involving Oubre were -9.8 and -16.2."

"To simplify that, the team played better than they usually do when Oubre was on the floor and especially when he was alongside Booker."

There's more there.

Oubre has shown to be a difference maker on a team that is absolutely desperate for difference makers. These guys are not easy to find, and definitely not as easy as going out and shopping for a cheaper one with all my cap space. You're gonna let this guy go for a few million more per year? Madness.

It means when Oubre started was when we finally had a capable PG. He played plenty of minutes long before that and we still were losing a lot. We finally had that mini win streak a few games after Tyler Johnson showed up...and when he went down we didn't win much more.

Johnson arrived February 6th. We lost the next 5 straight games with him playing. Oubre was inserted into the starting line-up on February 21st. We were .500 from that point on for the next 12 games, including the two games after Tyler went down, in which we went 1-1. After that, Oubre went down. Additionally, there is the information I quoted from the article outlining Oubre's impact in his entire time with the team. To say Tyler Johnson was the higher impact addition is doubtful at best and smacks of being disingenuous.

I thought it was fairly obvious that once Tyler Johnson got acclimated the team really got going. Even prior to that, long after Oubre had been there, Booker had mentioned it's about as bad as it's ever been.

I do think Oubre was a positive addition with his attitude and positive energy. I just don't think because he helped us win 6 games that is reason to value him at $20+ million.

I don't think it really matters though as I honestly can't really imagine anyone will give him an offer close to $20 million. Maybe Sacramento but they are rumored to want to re-sign Barnes.

I'm sure we will match some sort of overpay but hopefully it's only around $14 or $15 a year.

[Crives]

Read on Twitter

I like oubre but if some teams wants to give him $20 mil per year I'd wish him luck in his next city.

Add: I have no idea how reliable this source is so take with a grain of salt.



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LOL. This is EXACTLY why you don't trade TJ away for nothing without first resigning Oubre.

The decision making of our front office is at an all time low.

This off season has been nothing short of a disaster.

Looks like Cam Johnson might get more playing time then I originally thought.

Or Jackson

[WeekapaugGroove]

LOL. This is EXACTLY why you don't trade TJ away for nothing without first resigning Oubre.

The decision making of our front office is at an all time low.

This off season has been nothing short of a disaster.

Looks like Cam Johnson might get more playing time then I originally thought.

Or Jackson

Dont put that evil on me Crives

One of my most anticipated aspects of watching the Suns this coming year was my belief I wouldn't have to watch him or Crawford play anymore.

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[bwgood77]

Oubre at 20 million will be a bad contract very soon.

20 million is third best player on the team salary, and Oubre simply isn't that good.

Oubre's value is a high-energy, versatile defensive forward, who can also contribute decently on offense.

He's too inefficient an offensive player, and too tunnel-visioned to ever be the third best player on a team.

Robert Covington is a far more impactful player than Oubre (and that's what you hope Oubre turns into) - so his contract should essentially be the benchmark for Oubre's deal.

Yeah, Covington is on a steal of a contract for his on court impact. But you are right, Oubre really shouldn't make more than that, and provides far less on court value, though he probably will end up making more.

[Crives]

Looks like Cam Johnson might get more playing time then I originally thought.

Or Jackson

Dont put that evil on me Crives

One of my most anticipated aspects of watching the Suns this coming year was my belief I wouldn't have to watch him or Crawford play anymore.

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You didn’t see the picture of Monty taking Jackson to church??

[RedIndian]

I would rather take Jackson at 7 million than Oubre at 20 million.

I know Jackson's stock is at an all-time low, and Oubre is certainly the better player at this stage. But at that price difference, I'd franky take my chances on Monty being a positive influence on Josh and getting the best out of him.

Also, if Oubre does indeed go elsewhere, we kinda then HAVE to go after Russell with the extra cap space we'd generate.

[bhawk]

LOL. This is EXACTLY why you don't trade TJ away for nothing without first resigning Oubre.

The decision making of our front office is at an all time low.

This off season has been nothing short of a disaster.

Looks like Cam Johnson might get more playing time then I originally thought.

Or Jackson

Wait, is this same Jackson that was arrested for a felony fleeing the scene at a FL music festival (since dropped)? Or is this the Jackson that is very publicly being accused of getting his daughter high by his 41 year old baby mama? Yeah... she's like twice his age. The dude is knucklehead in the vein of Supercool Beas.

Pay Oubre. He is young, improving and seems to have his head on straight. I loved what he brought to the team in terms of leadership, energy and fun. I actually enjoyed watching him as opposed to TJ Warren. He needs to pass more and there is room for improvement. By all accounts, he fits the physical profile, he is a leader, he fits our timeline. It is a travesty if we let him walk. Chemistry is important and that 1 reason why Warren is gone. This Valley Boyz thing is cheesy, but it works and has brought an identity to our team like RIP City or others...

I do understand the overpay argument and that 20M+ per is reserved for the 2nd best player on a team. My bet is that he becomes the 2nd best player on the team or is tied with Ayton.

[BobbieL]

Looks like Cam Johnson might get more playing time then I originally thought.

Or Jackson

Dont put that evil on me Crives

One of my most anticipated aspects of watching the Suns this coming year was my belief I wouldn't have to watch him or Crawford play anymore.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using RealGM mobile app

I am still hopeful of a Josh Jackson trade. The Knicks are in the market for doing crzy stuff since nobody is going there - unless KD does - the Morr, Cousins - why not add Josh to that group for Lance Thomas - -would give the Suns some cap savings. Throw in a few million to make it work for the KNicks