2020 NBA Draft Prospect Watch - Revised Poll

[Ghost of Kleine]

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Both should be really solid trade back considerations or if we acquire an additional pick. That's after we take one of Bane, Lewis, Terry, or Riller with our primary pick.

[Kerrsed]

Gordon did have 23% more touches per 36 than Oubre (58.6 vs 47.6), as mentioned earlier, but he had 273% more assists per 36 (4.1 vs 1.5), so obviously it's a lot more than a result of "more touches".

Gordon also wasnt playing with a very ball dominant PG like Rubio (Or Booker for that matter), so its understandable that Oubre gets way less touches.

Crazy thing is that i posted about touches last night in the Oubre for Gordon thread on the Trade Board. When you look at both teams and throw out the PG's (Because they run the offense and their touches shouldnt count) Gordon was 2nd in touches (Vucevic was 1st) for the Magic. For the Suns Oubre was 4th behind Ayton/Booker/Saric.

So what i see there is that Rubio controls the offense, first choices are to Booker or Ayton. Then Saric, with Oubre being our last option (And most likely way way later in the shot clock), once it gets to that point its up to Oubre to attack the rim and score. Orlando skips Gordon ahead 2 players, so he has more of an opportunity to assist the other players.

Dont get me wrong, Gordon is a better passer. But he also has more touches AND more opportunities to help factor in those 3 extra assists.

[bwgood77]

Gordon did have 23% more touches per 36 than Oubre (58.6 vs 47.6), as mentioned earlier, but he had 273% more assists per 36 (4.1 vs 1.5), so obviously it's a lot more than a result of "more touches".

Gordon also wasnt playing with a very ball dominant PG like Rubio (Or Booker for that matter), so its understandable that Oubre gets way less touches.

Crazy thing is that i posted about touches last night in the Oubre for Gordon thread on the Trade Board. When you look at both teams and throw out the PG's (Because they run the offense and their touches shouldnt count) Gordon was 2nd in touches (Vucevic was 1st) for the Magic. For the Suns Oubre was 4th behind Ayton/Booker/Saric.

So what i see there is that Rubio controls the offense, first choices are to Booker or Ayton. Then Saric, with Oubre being our last option (And most likely way way later in the shot clock), once it gets to that point its up to Oubre to attack the rim and score. Orlando skips Gordon ahead 2 players, so he has more of an opportunity to assist the other players.

Dont get me wrong, Gordon is a better passer. But he also has more touches AND more opportunities to help factor in those 3 extra assists.

Sure, as he has the court vision to where, if needed, they can run their offense through him sometimes. If you divide assists per 36 by touches per 36, Gordon has an assist on about 7% of touches whereas Oubre is at about 3%.

[AtheJ415]

I don't mind Oubre, but the rampant hypocrisy with which people view him compared to Warren bothers the hell out of me. Oubre is more of a black hole than TJ at a fraction of the efficiency. He's also no better defensively despite reputation. Warren is easily the better player and half this board wanted him run out of town due to passing while excusing Oubre's lack of it simply because he plays louder / with more energy, which is easily the most overrated thing in sports outside of clutch play. Both have statistically been proven repeatedly to be utterly meaningless. It's similar to when the diamondbacks dumped justin upton and everyone else for guys like Eric Byrnes. Intangibles are largely overrated. Kawhi is a quiet player and is boring as all hell as a person and I'd trade everyone not named Booker for him. Pumping your fist doesn't increase your value. It helps to be liked by teammates but that does not carry the value many here seem to be okay with. If we pay Oubre more than regular starter level I will be livid. Not unless he shows clear improvement from 3, as a passer, and more consistency defending.

[Saberestar]

This is an excerpt from Gina's article about Bane...

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[Ghost of Kleine]

I don't mind Oubre, but the rampant hypocrisy with which people view him compared to Warren bothers the hell out of me. Oubre is more of a black hole than TJ at a fraction of the efficiency. He's also no better defensively despite reputation. Warren is easily the better player and half this board wanted him run out of town due to passing while excusing Oubre's lack of it simply because he plays louder / with more energy, which is easily the most overrated thing in sports outside of clutch play. Both have statistically been proven repeatedly to be utterly meaningless. It's similar to when the diamondbacks dumped justin upton and everyone else for guys like Eric Byrnes. Intangibles are largely overrated. Kawhi is a quiet player and is boring as all hell as a person and I'd trade everyone not named Booker for him. Pumping your fist doesn't increase your value. It helps to be liked by teammates but that does not carry the value many here seem to be okay with. If we pay Oubre more than regular starter level I will be livid. Not unless he shows clear improvement from 3, as a passer, and more consistency defending.

Oubre can be absolutely energizing for us at times, And I love that about him. And to be clear, I'm not just looking to trade Oubre for the sake of trading him. In fact, I'd be cool with keeping him FOR THE RIGHT PRICE! And for me, That price would be around 16 million ( a little more than what Jerami Grant is projected to get this summer). My concerns with Oubre are that he's had a breakout season which is great for him and us, But not so great in regards to our cap flexibility, And inevitably, Some team will undoubtedly overpay for him, Perhaps by a large margin even if it's a team that struggles to attract/ land free agents. Because as much as Oubre needs to improve in certain areas, His bravado, energy, flashiness, and charisma make him very marketable! Also, It's important to consider that Oubre is only the 3rd banana on the team. He may very well want to be the headliner somewhere given his personality. Especially seeing as how he won't have that opportunity here!

Back to the original point. My concern with Oubre is that I anticipate some team to be willing to heavily overpay for him in absence of landing their primary target. At that point, Do we/ should we really overpay to bring him back knowing that we still have Aytons' and Bridges looming extensions due the following summer? What happens if Bridges and Ayton both significantly improve and their market value escalates dramatically? Will we still have the cap flexibility to resign them if we commit to potentially 20+ million for Oubre prior to their extensions? Without our cap flexibility,
We could end up losing one of them to significant bid, Wherein we simply can't afford to match.

And if we are lucky enough to still be able to resign both of Ayton and Bridges, Then well likely have around 80- 90 million+ tied up in 3 players? At that point how to address roster upgrades, alterations? And what if that core isn't good enough to truly compete? Do we just ride it out till Booker leaves? So for my part, I'm fine with bringing Oubre back for a reasonable price. Say around 64/4 ( maybe with incentive bonuses) to encourage categorical improvement.

[sunsbg]

It will be a shortened season. You don't mess up with your lineups to bring inferior/equal players that may very will result in worse chemistry, especially sending out a fan/players favorite, who will be giving it all in a contract year. It's that simple. GoK, probably already has a ton of scenarios to replace KO if he demands a big contract next season anyway.

[Blonde]

(Long Aaron Gordon advocate post...)

Year after year people get enamored with the players on their own team and think organic team improvement is always just around the corner.

I do believe Oubre had a better season than Gordon last year, but I also believe that given the same opportunities in the same system, Gordon would be a much better fit and overall better player. When I look at how we played in Orlando it’s hard to swallow giving Oubre a long term raise. Gordon on the otherhand is like a mix between Oubre and Saric, who would have a very well defined role and future with the present roster. He’s a true PF and willing passer like Saric, but is also a capable ball handler and explosive athlete who can guard the perimeter Oubre. Both are capable, but not noteworthy shooters so nothing is being sacrificed from 3. As an offensive connector he fits right in, and on defense he has the strength to body up the bigger PFs in the league.

We saw how Oubre exploded when we traded for him, I would expect the same for Gordon given that he has played for some of the most ill-conceived rosters in the league without any consistent direction for his whole career (and never had the benefit of a starting level PG - we know how limiting that can be). Sometimes it takes a second home for those stagnated lottery talents to take a leap, and I would not be surprised if Gordon falls into that category (like Oubre did).

If there’s a deal out there surrounding Oubre + 10 + Jerome or Leque or something small, for Gordon + 15 then to me that’s a no brainer.

[oddity]

My thing with this Gordon for Oubre swap is that I truly believe that Kelly's game is trending upwards, while Gordon's is trending downwards.

[darmani]

(Long Aaron Gordon advocate post...)

Year after year people get enamored with the players on their own team and think organic team improvement is always just around the corner.

I do believe Oubre had a better season than Gordon last year, but I also believe that given the same opportunities in the same system, Gordon would be a much better fit and overall better player. When I look at how we played in Orlando it’s hard to swallow giving Oubre a long term raise. Gordon on the otherhand is like a mix between Oubre and Saric, who would have a very well defined role and future with the present roster. He’s a true PF and willing passer like Saric, but is also a capable ball handler and explosive athlete who can guard the perimeter Oubre. Both are capable, but not noteworthy shooters so nothing is being sacrificed from 3. As an offensive connector he fits right in, and on defense he has the strength to body up the bigger PFs in the league.

We saw how Oubre exploded when we traded for him, I would expect the same for Gordon given that he has played for some of the most ill-conceived rosters in the league without any consistent direction for his whole career (and never had the benefit of a starting level PG - we know how limiting that can be). Sometimes it takes a second home for those stagnated lottery talents to take a leap, and I would not be surprised if Gordon falls into that category (like Oubre did).

If there’s a deal out there surrounding Oubre + 10 + Jerome or Leque or something small, for Gordon + 15 then to me that’s a no brainer.

It's funny reading this post when Magic's fans' biggest complaint about Gordon is that he's unwilling to play power forward full time and that he plays hero ball too much instead of focusing on doing the little things to help their team win.

[WeekapaugGroove]

(Long Aaron Gordon advocate post...)

Year after year people get enamored with the players on their own team and think organic team improvement is always just around the corner.

I do believe Oubre had a better season than Gordon last year, but I also believe that given the same opportunities in the same system, Gordon would be a much better fit and overall better player. When I look at how we played in Orlando it’s hard to swallow giving Oubre a long term raise. Gordon on the otherhand is like a mix between Oubre and Saric, who would have a very well defined role and future with the present roster. He’s a true PF and willing passer like Saric, but is also a capable ball handler and explosive athlete who can guard the perimeter Oubre. Both are capable, but not noteworthy shooters so nothing is being sacrificed from 3. As an offensive connector he fits right in, and on defense he has the strength to body up the bigger PFs in the league.

We saw how Oubre exploded when we traded for him, I would expect the same for Gordon given that he has played for some of the most ill-conceived rosters in the league without any consistent direction for his whole career (and never had the benefit of a starting level PG - we know how limiting that can be). Sometimes it takes a second home for those stagnated lottery talents to take a leap, and I would not be surprised if Gordon falls into that category (like Oubre did).

If there’s a deal out there surrounding Oubre + 10 + Jerome or Leque or something small, for Gordon + 15 then to me that’s a no brainer.

It's funny reading this post when Magic's fans' biggest complaint about Gordon is that he's unwilling to play power forward full time and that he plays hero ball too much instead of focusing on doing the little things to help their team win.

You're not wrong. Gordon embracing being a high level role player is something lots of folks in Orlando and nationally have suggested for a while. He still thinks he can be a star.

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[Ghost of Kleine]

It will be a shortened season. You don't mess up with your lineups to bring inferior/equal players that may very will result in worse chemistry, especially sending out a fan/players favorite, who will be giving it all in a contract year. It's that simple. GoK, probably already has a ton of scenarios to replace KO if he demands a big contract next season anyway.

Well hopefully there is mutual interest between Oubre and the front office resigning. And most importantly, Hopefully we can resign Oubre for nothing more than around 16-17 million. Which would allow us to maintain a modicum of cap flexibility heading into Aytons' and Bridges key extensions.

I agree that chemistry/ continuity are very important, and hopefully we can maintain that. However, the players that I currently have no issues with letting walk are :

Kaminsky/ Diallo/ Okobo/ Owen's.
Just losing these contracts alone could give us around 8- 9 million to work with. This could allow us to add one of either:

- Justin Holiday.
- DJ Augustine.
- Paul Milsap.
Or perhaps even Christian Wood? If we front load the offer. Or perhaps we spread it out through multiple positions of need:
- Reggie Jackson or Shabazz Napier.
- Alec Burks. ( Backup shooting guard).
- Rondae Hollis Jefferson or Glenn Robinson 3rd ( Backup small forward).
- Harry Giles or Noah Vonleh?
- Nerlens Noel or Kyle O'quinn or perhaps Meyers Leonard?

[bwgood77]

Well hopefully there is mutual interest between Oubre and the front office resigning. And most importantly, Hopefully we can resign Oubre for nothing more than around 16-17 million. Which would allow us to maintain a modicum of cap flexibility heading into Aytons' and Bridges key extensions.

Still might be hard to give him even that much with the cap declining between $3-$12 million this coming year and perhaps more the following year, when we have two players at the same position who are better team fits. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[Ghost of Kleine]

(Long Aaron Gordon advocate post...)

Year after year people get enamored with the players on their own team and think organic team improvement is always just around the corner.

I do believe Oubre had a better season than Gordon last year, but I also believe that given the same opportunities in the same system, Gordon would be a much better fit and overall better player. When I look at how we played in Orlando it’s hard to swallow giving Oubre a long term raise. Gordon on the otherhand is like a mix between Oubre and Saric, who would have a very well defined role and future with the present roster. He’s a true PF and willing passer like Saric, but is also a capable ball handler and explosive athlete who can guard the perimeter Oubre. Both are capable, but not noteworthy shooters so nothing is being sacrificed from 3. As an offensive connector he fits right in, and on defense he has the strength to body up the bigger PFs in the league.

We saw how Oubre exploded when we traded for him, I would expect the same for Gordon given that he has played for some of the most ill-conceived rosters in the league without any consistent direction for his whole career (and never had the benefit of a starting level PG - we know how limiting that can be). Sometimes it takes a second home for those stagnated lottery talents to take a leap, and I would not be surprised if Gordon falls into that category (like Oubre did).

If there’s a deal out there surrounding Oubre + 10 + Jerome or Leque or something small, for Gordon + 15 then to me that’s a no brainer.

If there’s a deal out there surrounding Oubre + 10 + Jerome or Leque or something small, for Gordon + 15

One little alteration. Oubre / 10 for Gordon15 And 45th pick Jerome is fine! No Lecque though. His potential is still really high to give up on. Especially when Oubre and the 10 combined should carry more value than Gordon/ 15. But I added the 45, Because now We can take Bane at 15, And then go with Tyshon Alexander or Tre Jones or Ashton Hagans at 45. Or vice versa, We take our ( PGOTF) Kira Lewis or Tyrell Terry? Then at 45, We can take one of Isiah Joe or Sam Merrill ( elite perimeter shooting). Point being that I agree with you that Gordon would be great here, But we'd still need to surround him with elite shooters. And then let him use his size/ athleticism to dominate and create gravity for those elite shooters.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Well hopefully there is mutual interest between Oubre and the front office resigning. And most importantly, Hopefully we can resign Oubre for nothing more than around 16-17 million. Which would allow us to maintain a modicum of cap flexibility heading into Aytons' and Bridges key extensions.

Still might be hard to give him even that much with the cap declining between $3-$12 million this coming year and perhaps more the following year, when we have two players at the same position who are better team fits. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Definitely agree! I really hope that this depressed economy can somehow play to our benefit in resigning Oubre. But I'm still a little leery of some team overpaying for him somewhere in the 18- 20 million range. It will definitely be an interesting situation.

[Saberestar]

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170 lbs is a decent weight for him.
Fox weighed 170 as a rookie. Trae 178.

[oddity]

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170 lbs is a decent weight for him.
Fox weighed 170 as a rookie. Trae 178.

Having already drafted Tyrell Terry in my mind, I'm getting flashbacks to 2015 when Book had the best shuttle run time. Book that year also posted something like the best lane agility time since 2001. Such an underrated athlete.

Also Cam Johnson had one of the highest lane agility times in the draft class, and the only players faster were small guards.

Tyrell Terry honestly just seems right on the suns to me. Ive been going back and forth between a bunch of point guards this year, but Terry just seems like the most natural fit at face value to me.

[Crives]

Next poll should be favorite trade down option (Kira vs Terry vs Bane)

[Kerrsed]

It's funny reading this post when Magic's fans' biggest complaint about Gordon is that he's unwilling to play power forward full time and that he plays hero ball too much instead of focusing on doing the little things to help their team win.

Interesting because Basketball-Reference shows that he spent 90% of his time last season playing PF.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gordoaa01.html

But then again, the previous season he only spent 60% of his time playing PF (The other 40% at SF) and that was his best season. The season before that (2018) he spent 91% of his time at PF.

As for the hero ball, i hate that term. Too many people throw it around and use it on any player, and honestly a lot of times its not a bad thing. Who on the Magic was the go to guy? Vucevic. 2nd? Gordon. They didnt have any real reliable scorers. So yes, some times he had to put the team on his back and push through and do what he could to try to win some games. We have gone through the same thing with Booker in the past. Is it an issue or something that just might be needed?

[Ghost of Kleine]

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170 lbs is a decent weight for him.
Fox weighed 170 as a rookie. Trae 178.

Most excellent man! Thanks