I feel like this take fails to account for the fact that these players, in general, will need a couple years to acclimate. Best thing you could hope for Tyler Bey next year is a guy who doesn't hurt you to much, because he's not going to be better than Oubre, Bridges or Cam. He might be very good a few years down the line, but at a position of some redundancy, and I really can't imagine that's what we're looking for out of this pick. (Also, no way should you expect Brandon Clarke-type defensive impact on day 1.)
As far as Lewis goes, I really don't think it's a good idea to add a PG in the draft unless we're in love, because I don't want to chase Jevon off our third string, and I still think Ty is worth watching. We need a quality NBA backup PG, and no one we draft is likely to be that next season. Riller's more of a combo guy, and he's older, so I'd consider him if we added a pick, I guess.
Still, I feel like we should be focused on making the right pick at #10. It's very rare that a draft doesn't have a high-quality NBA player available at that spot in the draft. The key is ID'ing that guy. Do you really think Tyler Bey's going to be the next Kawhi? How big are his hands??
First off, I completely agree with you that under certain circumstances, and fore some players, It does take a few years to acclimate and contribute at a measurable level. HOWEVER, With Tyler Bey, His game is predicated upon his athleticism, ELITE defensive awareness and defensive playmaking, Elite rebounding for a wing, and his high defensive basketball IQ. So his skillset should quite easily translate almost immediately. Next, with respect to his not hurting us, AND needing to be better than Oubre, Bridges, or Cam. We'd of course be drafting him for his elite defensive versatility and the fact that he doesn't need to have the ball in his hands to make an impact and contribute. Also, he's shown enough consistency ( albeit in small sample size) to hit over 41% from three, So he'd be more of a defensive compliment to Oubre, Cam, and our primary scorers. And therefore, he really wouldn't need to be better than any of those three to be able to contribute, As he'll again contribute in a complimentary role without needing the ball.
Next, With respect to not drafting him due to it creating redundancy. In today's modern NBA of positionless basketball and team's seeking to go smaller and coveting highly interchangeable positional players ( especially wings)a player such as Tyler Bey who is a highly versatile 3 and D wing, With the ability to guard 1-4 and even some 5s' whilst still being able to also spread the floor at a reasonable rate carry premium value to teams. So I'd argue that his versatility and high complimentary skillset negates any possible concern over redundancy, As Bridges can also play at the 2 on occasions wherein Booker plays at the 1. And then Bey would slide in at the 3, With Oubre at the 4, Or switch it up any number of ways, with Oubre at the 3, and Bey at the 4 even.This would give Monty a lot of positional versatility and different options at his disposal.
Also, I agree that we can't realistically expect the same type of impact from day 1 as that which Clarke provided to Memphis. And I wouldn't consider it at a reasonable to make those assumptions, As each player's level of success and contribution is highly circumstantial and individually dependent upon there overall environment, As well as countless other potential factors. HOWEVER, Do I think he could very possibly replicate Clarkes' first year stat line that he put up in Memphis? Absolutely, IF also given 21 minutes of playing time in his first season.
12 points/ 5.8 rebounds/ 1.5 assists/ and 0.8 blocks in 21 minutes of play. When in college, Tyler is currently putting up :http://www.tankathon.com/players/tyler-bey
13.8 points/ 9 rebounds/ 1.5 assists/ 1.2 blocks in 29 minutes of play. And even though he's not nearly as efficient at scoring around the rim as Clarke is, His value would be from his impact on the defensive end, AND of the bench in a complimentary role anyways, So he wouldn't really need to have a similar impact as Clarke for us in his first season. But still, Noone really saw Clarke having that kind of defensive impact, Otherwise, He wouldn't have fallen all the way to the 20s' in last year's draft. But with respect to that, The comparison is primarily based upon the fact that they're both undersized energetic combo forwards with elite quick twitch athleticism and high end defensive potential as defensive specialists at the next level. And both were/ are flying under the radar prior to the draft.https://www.nbascoutinglive.com/tyler-bey-scouting-report/https://www.nbascoutinglive.com/brandon-clarke-scouting-report/
Lastly, With respect to him being the next Kwahi, Who can really prognosticate what might happen? But he ( Tyler Bey) is an elite perimeter defender with similar size as Kwahi at 6'7 and also a similar long wingspan at nearly 7'2, To Kwahis' 7'3 wingspan. And their comparison:http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=tyler-bey--kawhi-leonard
Finds them eerily similar in many ways statistically, If that can be considered a reasonable barometer for potential projection???
As for the hand size comparison, Kwahi is said to have hands at around 11 inches. And for Tyler Bey, I couldn't find any info as of yet.
With respect to Not drafting Lewis, For fear of chasing Jevon Carter off, and potentially displacing Jerome rotationally. Whilst Carter is great defensively as a ballhawking guard, He's still a 3rd tier guard at best, And we're looking for an actual viable backup guard replacement option to take over for Rubio eventually. So would you honestly rather have Carter over Lewis, Whose ceiling projects higher along the lines of a Dennis Schroder/ Lou Williams, When at best (* and I love what Carter brings
) Carter in all this time along with our other guard rotation hasn't shown the ability or consistency to be any better than a 3rd string option?
And I am really high on Jerome's basketball IQ and passing and shooting potential, But let's be honest, He doesn't have nearly enough speed and athleticism to adequately survive in a backup point guard role, much less take over a starting role for Rubio when he leaves. Honestly, Jerome would be best suited as a backup 3rd string playmaking version of JJ Reddick for us. In this capacity, His overall lack of athleticism is negated somewhat, And he can better utilize his high basketball IQ, passing ability, and shooting prowess to have a more measurable impact on the game. Again, with him getting exposed athletically quite so much. As far as Riller goes, Yes he's a combo guard, But to our benefit, He's ELITE in his ability to break down defenses with his ballhandling and penetration. He's also a big time clutch shotmaker with a lot of poise and savvy. And his ceiling does project along the lines of: Fred Van Vleet/ Deron Williams. So he'd honestly be a perfect compliment to Booker ( IF Booker is at the two, AND also to Rubio with his ELITE penetration and clutch shotmaking ability. So again, I'd of course agree with you that IF we add a pick, He should be very high on our big board.
Lastly, with respect to making the right pick at 10, You're right in that it should always be the goal to make the right pick IF AT ALL POSSIBLE in the draft. But with respect to this draft, As we all know, The talent is oddly enough fairly even throughout the majority of the first round, As well as into the 2nd round too. This means that depending upon your intent and team needs, You could quite possibly find equal or greater value even later in the first round ( outside of the lottery) that can help your team, As there's just no legitimate or discernable high end all star caliber lottery talent outside of the top 3 at best! So unless we somehow luck into a top 3 pick, I for my part, Just find it to be of more value to trade back for additional low cost assets that can help address multiple needs positionally, Whilst, also keeping cap costs low. Which in doing so, Will afford us greater cap flexibility in free agency to possibly sign a specific higher tier free agent at a position of critical need. Should we identify one available.
I mean just imagine being able to walk away on draft night with Riller, Bey or Jalen Smith (** My top overall preference in a trade back scenario)
And then with addressing two positions at both backup point guard and 3 and D power forward, Now we use the money we saved in the draft (from filling those positions of need/ depth with low cost rookie scale contracts) to add one of either Ibaka **( mentor Smith) or Van Vleet **( mentor Riller). Whilst flipping some combination of Okobo and Diallo to either Charlotte or Dallas for the 31st or 32nd pick in the draft. And draft an elite perimeter shooter in either Quickly or Desmond Bane. We'd be a super deep, super athletic, defensively versatile team, And ready to compete sooner too.
I call that a winning offseason in what has been a weird lost season