Who are your playoff locks?

[WeekapaugGroove]

Hot take. NO team out west is a true lock. It's going to be so competitive for the 8 spots that a major injury could knock any team out.



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[bwgood77]

Hot take. NO team out west is a true lock. It's going to be so competitive for the 8 spots that a major injury could knock any team out.



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Can a major injury knock them out? I do like their roster better than San Antonio's but of course SA has Pop. But the Pels backcourt is loaded.

The only thing is who knows how Ingram will come back? I think they have enough guards that they can play 3 at a time along with Zion and Favors if Ingram isn't available but frontcourt seems a bit thin....so if one of them gets hurt they may have to rely on Jaxson Hayes who is raw or Okafor to some extent.

[Qwigglez]

Only two locks for me is Clippers and Nuggets. An injury to any of the other teams could really affect a teams standings in the West. Clippers and Nuggets are just deep teams so I don’t think injuries will affect them as much.
Near locks are Blazers, Jazz, Rockets. Warriors just aren’t as deep without Klay and Durant. I’m not confident in Lebron/AD staying healthy, and they got too many clowns on that roster (Dwight/McGee).

[lilfishi22]

They don't have a chance even if they kept everyone, and I think they are probably trying to trade Paul, Gallinari and Adams, but no way they can get something like that for Adams. His contract is bad. He got one of the last big center deals before the market for non superstar centers dried up.

If we assume that they are keeping everyone and everyone is healthy/motivated, they have a sneaky good squad with depth. A team with the ball in CP3's hands is dangerous especially when you have talented vets like Adams, Gallo, Roberson, Noel, Shroeder and some good young guys in SGA and Ferguson. Are they much worse than Pels, Kings, Wolves or Dallas if we assume these teams are going to the fighting tooth and nail for a final playoff spot?

If they blow it up in December or something, yeah I get it but if they keep it together, I think they will be competitive.

Yeah, I mentioned I think they have a solid starting unit if healthy, but Roberson isn't healthy yet, and Paul and Gallo are very injury prone. But Paul, SGA, Roberson, Gallo and Adams are competitive. Noel and Schroeder are decent and Ferguson has some potential, but I don't think that's great depth, particularly if Roberson is out or not his old self. But that starting lineup will be able to hang with people. I just don't think that's the direction Presti wants to go, and he'd like to trade and go younger. But he can't get anything for Paul, and he's asking too much for Adams..Gallo could have some value if healthy, but that's about it. If they can somehow get Paul to Miami, that will make Miami a very tough team. They are pretty tough already with the emergence of Bam and Winslow and have Butler along with some decent vets.

Speaking of the east, I didn't mention my playoff locks there.

I think the locks are Philly, Milwaukee, Indiana, Boston, Brooklyn, Toronto and Miami.

So many locks mainly because there is a clear solid group and clear not so solid group.

Then Orlando could make it again as they are getting older and have a taste of the playoffs

Detroit could also compete for that last spot, but I think the Bulls could be the team to beat for it, with the Hawks having a chance of being a competitive young team.

The Bulls have solid young talent in Markkanen, Porter and LaVine, point guard depth, and I think Wendell Carter, Jr, if healthy, will be very solid.

Some may think Toronto could blow it up, but even if they dealt Lowry (but not sure where he could go and he is a fan favorite in Toronto), Siakam, FVV, Ibaka and Gasol are too good, especially with the playoff experience now. And many think Anunoby will emerge as a stud.

Now they could deal Gasol as well, but they have a pretty good mix of vets and young talent and I suspect that group will be better than people expect. They actually had a better win % without Kawhi than with him last year. Obviously they were not a better team, but it shows, they still had the best win % in the conference without him, so it's not like those guys have a serious drop off, outside of maybe dropping down 3-5 spots in the east.

I think as a squad, I'd put them ahead of us, Memphis, Dallas and probably on par with a Sacramento. They don't have a ton of high end talent but they are a scrappy, experienced squad and with CP3 at the helm, he's going to get them to get the best out of that squad. I don't like CP3 but he's undoubtedly still very talented and can still run a team with the best of them. Agree regarding Roberson's health being a big question mark. They are probably going down the blow it up route sooner or later but for as long as they are together (and motivated/healthy) they are going to be a tough team to beat and if they for some reason keep it together the entire season, CP3 isn't going to allow them to tank and they've got enough grizzled vets to compete.

I agree with your East locks.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

If we assume that they are keeping everyone and everyone is healthy/motivated, they have a sneaky good squad with depth. A team with the ball in CP3's hands is dangerous especially when you have talented vets like Adams, Gallo, Roberson, Noel, Shroeder and some good young guys in SGA and Ferguson. Are they much worse than Pels, Kings, Wolves or Dallas if we assume these teams are going to the fighting tooth and nail for a final playoff spot?

If they blow it up in December or something, yeah I get it but if they keep it together, I think they will be competitive.

Yeah, I mentioned I think they have a solid starting unit if healthy, but Roberson isn't healthy yet, and Paul and Gallo are very injury prone. But Paul, SGA, Roberson, Gallo and Adams are competitive. Noel and Schroeder are decent and Ferguson has some potential, but I don't think that's great depth, particularly if Roberson is out or not his old self. But that starting lineup will be able to hang with people. I just don't think that's the direction Presti wants to go, and he'd like to trade and go younger. But he can't get anything for Paul, and he's asking too much for Adams..Gallo could have some value if healthy, but that's about it. If they can somehow get Paul to Miami, that will make Miami a very tough team. They are pretty tough already with the emergence of Bam and Winslow and have Butler along with some decent vets.

Speaking of the east, I didn't mention my playoff locks there.

I think the locks are Philly, Milwaukee, Indiana, Boston, Brooklyn, Toronto and Miami.

So many locks mainly because there is a clear solid group and clear not so solid group.

Then Orlando could make it again as they are getting older and have a taste of the playoffs

Detroit could also compete for that last spot, but I think the Bulls could be the team to beat for it, with the Hawks having a chance of being a competitive young team.

The Bulls have solid young talent in Markkanen, Porter and LaVine, point guard depth, and I think Wendell Carter, Jr, if healthy, will be very solid.

Some may think Toronto could blow it up, but even if they dealt Lowry (but not sure where he could go and he is a fan favorite in Toronto), Siakam, FVV, Ibaka and Gasol are too good, especially with the playoff experience now. And many think Anunoby will emerge as a stud.

Now they could deal Gasol as well, but they have a pretty good mix of vets and young talent and I suspect that group will be better than people expect. They actually had a better win % without Kawhi than with him last year. Obviously they were not a better team, but it shows, they still had the best win % in the conference without him, so it's not like those guys have a serious drop off, outside of maybe dropping down 3-5 spots in the east.

I think as a squad, I'd put them ahead of us, Memphis, Dallas and probably on par with a Sacramento. They don't have a ton of high end talent but they are a scrappy, experienced squad and with CP3 at the helm, he's going to get them to get the best out of that squad. I don't like CP3 but he's undoubtedly still very talented and can still run a team with the best of them. Agree regarding Roberson's health being a big question mark. They are probably going down the blow it up route sooner or later but for as long as they are together (and motivated/healthy) they are going to be a tough team to beat and if they for some reason keep it together the entire season, CP3 isn't going to allow them to tank and they've got enough grizzled vets to compete.

I agree with your East locks.

I can't agree about OKC. I like Adams, CP3 (when healthy) and Gallo (when healthy). Shai is solid, too. But they still lack shooting and scoring, and I don't think they have enough talent 2-4. That group is built as a supporting cast for two superstars, which they no longer have. CP3's a creator: who's he creating for? Plus they know the GM is trying to move everyone. Can't see it.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Hot take. NO team out west is a true lock. It's going to be so competitive for the 8 spots that a major injury could knock any team out.



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Can a major injury knock them out? I do like their roster better than San Antonio's but of course SA has Pop. But the Pels backcourt is loaded.

The only thing is who knows how Ingram will come back? I think they have enough guards that they can play 3 at a time along with Zion and Favors if Ingram isn't available but frontcourt seems a bit thin....so if one of them gets hurt they may have to rely on Jaxson Hayes who is raw or Okafor to some extent.

Ha I now see how my message could be misunderstood. What I was saying is I don't think any team is really a lock, all are just one injury away from falling out in a very competitive west.


As far as new Orleans, I really have no idea what to think of them. It's basically a whole new team so I'd guess they take a little time to come together but they could be alright.

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[Qwigglez]

I see CP3 dogging it with the Thunder. Can’t see them playing very well at all. Hard to trust Gallinari not getting injured again. And then I’m hearing trade rumors of Steve Adams. They are bound to shake up their roster further.

I see the Spurs taking a slight step back this year. Might squeeze into the playoffs but can also be pushed out. I don’t see load management happening as much, and as a result players could potentially get injured more.

The Pelicans are the true wild card. Not sure how they end up doing.

[bwgood77]

Of course right after we all discuss this, Zach Lowe gives his playoff locks and tiers.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27763420/nba-30-teams-rated-top-contenders-bottom-tier

[Dual]

Locks: Clippers, Jazz, Nuggets, Lakers, Blazers, Rockets

Likely: Warriors, Spurs, Pelicans, Mavs (fighting for 7th/8th spot)

Unlikely: Suns, Kings (they have better shot than us of making playoffs tbh)

Highly Unlikely: Wolves, Thunder

No Way: Grizzlies

[Moochthemonkey]

as current rosters stands, assuming no significant injuries

Locks: Clippers, Nuggets, Jazz, Blazers
Probable: Lakers, Rockets, Warriors
Fringe: Mavericks, Spurs
Unlikely: Thunder, Kings, Pelicans, Timberwolves
Lottery-Locks: Suns, Grizzlies

Locks: Sixers, Celtics, Bucks, Pacers
Probable: Raptors, Nets
Fringe: Everyone else except Knicks, Cavs
Lottery Locks: Knicks, Cavs

hopefully I'm 2013-14 wrong

[WeekapaugGroove]

The two west teams that I'm lower on than most people would be Portland and GS. I didn't really like Portlands offseason, aminu and harkless might be tough losses they were Portlands best defensive players. With GS I worry they have to play too many bad players which can be a recipe for disaster in the rough west.

I'm curious to see how GS structures their rotation. Can they survive even 10-15 minutes without DLo and Curry on the floor? Seems like a tough task against some of the deep teams with good benches, a game can be lost in 10 minutes of bad play. Or do the stagger those two and always have 1 on the floor. But if you do this then you play over half the game with only 1 of them and the other team is going to double the **** out of them and force someone else to make shots.
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[bwgood77]

The two west teams that I'm lower on than most people would be Portland and GS. I didn't really like Portlands offseason, aminu and harkless might be tough losses they were Portlands best defensive players. With GS I worry they have to play too many bad players which can be a recipe for disaster in the rough west.

I'm curious to see how GS structures their rotation. Can they survive even 10-15 minutes without DLo and Curry on the floor? Seems like a tough task against some of the deep teams with good benches, a game can be lost in 10 minutes of bad play. Or do the stagger those two and always have 1 on the floor. But if you do this then you play over half the game with only 1 of them and the other team is going to double the **** out of them and force someone else to make shots.
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I'm sure they will stagger them. Why wouldn't they?

And you are forgetting they have Marquese Chriss to handle things off the bench.