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Deandre Ayton year 4, the next step

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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#1161 » by bwgood77 » Wed Nov 3, 2021 1:05 am

lilfishi22 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:A lot of bigs back in the day weren't efficient but they were the best option because it was just the way the game was played. Shaq and Kareem were both truly dominant with their scoring as evidenced by their super efficiency but then you have guys like Hakeem, Moses, TD and even David Robinson who were just above 50% from the field for their careers. Even Karl Malone only had 2 seasons were he shot above 55% from the field.

Agree there's different tiers but dominant bigs shooting well above 50% is more the exception than the norm.


It's just hard to compare eras when it is drilled into players and especially bigs to cut out the midrange shots.

But Ayton could without a doubt average 20-25 ppg on 50% from the field. With ease.

Yeah I've mentioned before I think Ayton could be a 20-25ppg scorer on above 50% shooting. I don't really see it as long as we have a CP3 led offense though.


That's the thing about the NBA today, though. Efficiency is a lot higher than it used to be due to excessive 3 pt shooting. 50% shooting is like 33% from 3.

Ideally you score at least 57% from 2 or (114 pts per 100 shots), or 38% from 3 (114 shots per 100 shots)

Or close to that...maybe 37% from 3 as a team which equates to about 55.5% from 2.

Currently a guy like Bridges is over 64% from 2 and 43% from 3. Ayton is 66% from 2.

Now people will say "but all their shots are assisted"...ideally if you have a team that passes, makes plays for others, an elite PG who can find others in their spots, these types of baskets are ideal. Not a bunch of people creating their own shots, iso'ing, even if they can shoot 50%. Only a handful of guys can get away with this at elite levels, like Curry and KD.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#1162 » by ImNotMcDiSwear » Wed Nov 3, 2021 1:34 am

bwgood77 wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
It's just hard to compare eras when it is drilled into players and especially bigs to cut out the midrange shots.

But Ayton could without a doubt average 20-25 ppg on 50% from the field. With ease.

Yeah I've mentioned before I think Ayton could be a 20-25ppg scorer on above 50% shooting. I don't really see it as long as we have a CP3 led offense though.


That's the thing about the NBA today, though. Efficiency is a lot higher than it used to be due to excessive 3 pt shooting. 50% shooting is like 33% from 3.

Ideally you score at least 57% from 2 or (114 pts per 100 shots), or 38% from 3 (114 shots per 100 shots)

Or close to that...maybe 37% from 3 as a team which equates to about 55.5% from 2.

Currently a guy like Bridges is over 64% from 2 and 43% from 3. Ayton is 66% from 2.

Now people will say "but all their shots are assisted"...ideally if you have a team that passes, makes plays for others, an elite PG who can find others in their spots, these types of baskets are ideal. Not a bunch of people creating their own shots, iso'ing, even if they can shoot 50%. Only a handful of guys can get away with this at elite levels, like Curry and KD.


I have to throw in that I think Ayton is a great passer - he just doesn't get a lot of opportunities. I'm not saying you can build a modern offense around him a la Jokic - but I'm betting that a prime Ayton would have blended right in with Robinson, Ewing, Olajuwon in the 90s. Certainly a couple notches above the next tier of 90s centers - Mutombo, Smits, even Mourning. Though I bet Mourning would be great in today's NBA, jockeying for fourth position along with Bam and Ayton.

My position really boils down to (1) Ayton doesn't get nearly the number of touches he deserves but (2) he's not a self-starter and needs a coach riding him to get the best out of him. Clearly he's coachable, but can the rest of the team be coached to get him the ball? It's a two-way thing, in that Ayton needs to want it, too. I just hope we get there... and I guess, (3) I think our future depends on it, actually.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#1163 » by bwgood77 » Sat Nov 20, 2021 7:07 pm

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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#1164 » by Ghost of Kleine » Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:04 am

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2021/11/21/22795825/deandre-ayton-phoenix-suns-second-fastest-in-suns-history-to-3000-points-and-2000-rebounds

Ayton second fastest in Suns history to 3,000 points and 2,000 rebounds

Ayton reached the milestone in just 188 career games, a mark that almost always indicates a Hall of Fame player


By Dave King@DaveKingNBA  Nov 21, 2021, 10:41pm

Young center Deandre Ayton, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 Draft, tonight became the second fastest Phoenix Suns player ever to record 3,000 career points and 2,000 career rebounds in the NBA.

Ayton reached that milestone in just 188 career games. In 54 years of franchise history, including any and all players who even suited up one game for the Suns, only Shaquille O’Neal and Charles Barkley reached it faster.

Ayton scored his 3,000th point in tonight’s game versus the Denver Nuggets after grabbing his 2,000th rebound on Friday night against the Dallas Mavericks.

Using basketball-reference.com’s Stathead service, here is the list. First, those who reached 3,000 points while already having 2,000 rebounds (like DA tonight):
https://stathead.com/basketball/pspan_finder.cgi?request=1&match=stat&order_by_asc=1&order_by=pts&pace_type=quickest&statspan_val=3000&statspan_stat=pts&year_min=1947&year_max=2022&is_playoffs=N&span_length=5&ccomp%5B1%5D=gt&cval%5B1%5D=2000&cstat%5B1%5D=trb&lg_id=NBA&birth_country_is=Y&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&season_start=1&season_end=-1


Among active players, Ayton only falls behind Joel Embiid (174 games), Karl-Anthony Towns (177 games) and Blake Griffin (183 games).

DA is not just throwing up stats in obscurity, or on a team bereft of other stat-stuffers. He is in a lineup with two other All-Stars, and helped the Suns make the NBA Finals in only his third season, at 22 years old, after they were bad enough to draft him No. 1 overall.

After beating the Nuggets on Sunday night, the Suns have won 12 games in a row — the fourth longest winning streak in the franchise’s 54 year history — and have more wins than any other NBA team in the last 17 months with a 86-32 record, regular season and playoffs.

I’m not sure we actually recognize just how special this group is, including Deandre Ayton.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#1165 » by Mulhollanddrive » Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:28 am

Booker, Ayton, Bridges with an MVP vote getter is a perpetual contender.

We need to keep the same structure to allow everyone to star in their role.

Scoring 25 points a game will probably not be Ayton's forte so let him perfect his strengths in our system.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#1166 » by Stark » Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:31 pm

https://youtu.be/XGHAAJEBvZg?t=137

Love these kind of stuff from DA. That's a really good catch and great pass.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#1167 » by Ghost of Kleine » Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:49 am

Brendon Kleen (@BrendonKleen14) Tweeted:
Deandre Ayton logged 15 drives all of last season per NBA tracking data. He's already up to 8 this season.
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Love this!
Hopefully he maintains his aggressiveness and it results in him actually getting to the line alot more.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#1168 » by bwgood77 » Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:58 am

Ghost of Kleine wrote:Brendon Kleen (@BrendonKleen14) Tweeted:
Deandre Ayton logged 15 drives all of last season per NBA tracking data. He's already up to 8 this season.
Read on Twitter
?s=20

Love this!
Hopefully he maintains his aggressiveness and it results in him actually getting to the line alot more.


That's in only 11 games too compared to 69 last year. I don't know how many drives most bigs have, and it still doesn't seem like many, but obviously he's on pace to go from like 15 to 60 or so, so those who say they don't see improvement anywhere, that's a 400% improvement and he only has like 11 shots per game, and a number of those are just finishes or put backs.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#1169 » by Ghost of Kleine » Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:11 am

bwgood77 wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:Brendon Kleen (@BrendonKleen14) Tweeted:
Deandre Ayton logged 15 drives all of last season per NBA tracking data. He's already up to 8 this season.
Read on Twitter
?s=20

Love this!
Hopefully he maintains his aggressiveness and it results in him actually getting to the line alot more.


That's in only 11 games too compared to 69 last year. I don't know how many drives most bigs have, and it still doesn't seem like many, but obviously he's on pace to go from like 15 to 60 or so, so those who say they don't see improvement anywhere, that's a 400% improvement and he only has like 11 shots per game, and a number of those are just finishes or put backs.

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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#1170 » by Ghost of Kleine » Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:12 am

Matt Petersen (@TheMattPetersen) Tweeted:
Deandre Ayton over his last 8 games:

18.1 PPG
13.5 RPG (3.9 offRPG)
67 FG%
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#1171 » by MPT » Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:08 am

Ghost of Kleine wrote:Matt Petersen (@TheMattPetersen) Tweeted:
Deandre Ayton over his last 8 games:

18.1 PPG
13.5 RPG (3.9 offRPG)
67 FG%
Read on Twitter
?s=20


I think the transference of shots taken from CP3 to Ayton & Mikal has been masterfully done thus far. Especially with Book still getting his shots, along with the bench. I also believe that's the reason as to why the team has looked so effortless (which in turn, makes it seem like we're not winning "sincerely".)
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#1172 » by lilfishi22 » Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:55 am

Ghost of Kleine wrote:Matt Petersen (@TheMattPetersen) Tweeted:
Deandre Ayton over his last 8 games:

18.1 PPG
13.5 RPG (3.9 offRPG)
67 FG%
Read on Twitter
?s=20

I'm not sure how to get the per100 stats and O/D ratings over the last 8 games but over the season this is where he's at:

2021-2022 season per100:
25.3pts (+3.4)
19.0rbs (+2.6)
ORTG: 122 (-9)
DRTG: 100 (-7)
Net Rating: +22 (-2)
Raw averages:
16pts (+0.8pts)
12rbs (+0.2rbs)
30.1mpg (-6.3mpg)
2P%: 64.8% (-1%)

Playoff Ayton per100:
21.9pts
16.4rbs
ORTG: 131
DRTG: 107
Net Rating: +24
Raw averages:
15.8pts
11.8rbs
36.4mpg
2P%: 65.8%

Depending on which metric you look at, he's basically playing at the same level if not higher than during the playoffs. Below is a refresher of his 2021 campaign:

2020-2021 season per100:
23.3pts
17.0rbs
ORTG: 127
DRTG: 109
Net Rating: +18
Raw averages:
14.4pts
10.5rbs
30.7mpg
2P%: 63.9%


He's better than he was last season and on par if not better than in the playoffs. I understand the playoffs is a different beast in which every team were a contender whereas we've had a very soft schedule to start to the season so it's a little difficult to compare perfectly but it shows he's on the right track.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 4, the next step 

Post#1173 » by Saberestar » Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:02 pm

Couple @nbastats glimpses of Ayton's defensive development.

Opp. paint pts/100 possessions with Ayton on the floor:

2018-19: 54.0
2019-20: 48.3
2020-21: 47.9
2021-22 44.3

Guards FG% with Ayton matched up with them:

2018-19: 44.8%
2019-20: 42.3%
2020-21: 42.0%
2021-22: 36.6%

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Re: Deandre Ayton year 4, the next step 

Post#1174 » by cberry78 » Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:17 pm

Saberestar wrote:Couple @nbastats glimpses of Ayton's defensive development.

Opp. paint pts/100 possessions with Ayton on the floor:

2018-19: 54.0
2019-20: 48.3
2020-21: 47.9
2021-22 44.3

Guards FG% with Ayton matched up with them:

2018-19: 44.8%
2019-20: 42.3%
2020-21: 42.0%
2021-22: 36.6%

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It's almost like the young center gets better on defense the more experience he has.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 4, the next step 

Post#1175 » by MrMiyagi » Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:18 am

cberry78 wrote:
Saberestar wrote:Couple @nbastats glimpses of Ayton's defensive development.

Opp. paint pts/100 possessions with Ayton on the floor:

2018-19: 54.0
2019-20: 48.3
2020-21: 47.9
2021-22 44.3

Guards FG% with Ayton matched up with them:

2018-19: 44.8%
2019-20: 42.3%
2020-21: 42.0%
2021-22: 36.6%

Read on Twitter

It's almost like the young center gets better on defense the more experience he has.
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But my eyes tell me Ayton has gotten worse at everything always.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 4, the next step 

Post#1176 » by bigfoot » Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:26 am

MrMiyagi wrote:
cberry78 wrote:
Saberestar wrote:Couple @nbastats glimpses of Ayton's defensive development.

Opp. paint pts/100 possessions with Ayton on the floor:

2018-19: 54.0
2019-20: 48.3
2020-21: 47.9
2021-22 44.3

Guards FG% with Ayton matched up with them:

2018-19: 44.8%
2019-20: 42.3%
2020-21: 42.0%
2021-22: 36.6%

Read on Twitter

It's almost like the young center gets better on defense the more experience he has.
Image

But my eyes tell me Ayton has gotten worse at everything always.


Problem is they are cherry-picking stats. If opposing guards DA is covering shoot 36.6% from 3 I would argue that is pretty bad defense. Also, if the other teams take more three-pointers with DA on the floor that would make paint points drop. Here's something tangible from the same website (nba.com) that shows DA has some of the worst opponent defense FG%'s on the team ... in the paint and from three.

Click on each FG% column so it presents in descending order and you will often see Ayton at the top giving up the highest opponent shooting percentage for the team on a variety of different areas on the floor. My eyes have seen this all season long. Poor rotation on defense by DA. He has been giving up many threes.

https://tinyurl.com/2p9bwa47
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 4, the next step 

Post#1177 » by garrick » Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:53 am

Someone mentioned on the GB awhile back that DA has a really low block rate but I see that he often isn't credited with blocks because he might get a finger or two on the ball and somehow that isn't counted as a block?

The most noticeable one was in SA where I felt he partially blocked at least three shots but at the end of the game he wasn't credited with blocks on any of them.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 4, the next step 

Post#1178 » by lilfishi22 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:20 am

garrick wrote:Someone mentioned on the GB awhile back that DA has a really low block rate but I see that he often isn't credited with blocks because he might get a finger or two on the ball and somehow that isn't counted as a block?

The most noticeable one was in SA where I felt he partially blocked at least three shots but at the end of the game he wasn't credited with blocks on any of them.

He's never been a good shot blocker and it's not because he's not credited with "half blocks"
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Lebron - Zion, Barrett like Melo, wade like Culver, garland like tj ford, hunter like bosh, white like Barbosa, Clarke like David West. I think this draft is actually going to be deeper though
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 4, the next step 

Post#1179 » by MPT » Sat Nov 27, 2021 5:57 am

To be fair, Ayton has solid fundamentals when it comes to contesting shots. Its that Hibbert verticality :lol:

He could definitely risk it for the biscuit more often...but I mean, what don't we want him to do.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 4, the next step 

Post#1180 » by lilfishi22 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:06 am

MPT wrote:To be fair, Ayton has solid fundamentals when it comes to contesting shots. Its that Hibbert verticality :lol:

He could definitely risk it for the biscuit more often...but I mean, what don't we want him to do.

Yeah it's not a big deal he doesn't have the raw block numbers as long as he's playing solid D
alamin330 wrote:This draft reminds me of the 2003 draft.
Lebron - Zion, Barrett like Melo, wade like Culver, garland like tj ford, hunter like bosh, white like Barbosa, Clarke like David West. I think this draft is actually going to be deeper though

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