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Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step

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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#261 » by bwgood77 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:46 pm

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Wow. That looks nasty. No judgement yet on this - eye test, and other numbers have been good on him on D.
And I'm not his biggest fan to say the least, I could easily imagine someone else in his place on the Suns.
Something to monitor but could also be small sample size noise because I agree eye test wise he's been fine.

Overall the net rating numbers for the starters haven't been great but some of that has been fourth quarter with a lead clunkyness. Now they need to improve that and learn to actually play out these games and not try to just run out the game.

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I have been following the net and def ratings...the entire starting lineup is bad, and the entire bench is good...and the starters who play with the bench the most are better than the other starters.

It has CP3, Crowder and Ayton with the worst net ratings and those 3 and Booker with the worst def ratings (Booker worse than Crowder). CP3 it has as the 2nd worst def rating right behind Ayton.

This is of our rotation players. So you really have to look at context....our entire starting unit is outplayed and have the worst net ratings...our entire bench have great net ratings. Booker and Bridges play with the bench the most so they have a little better net ratings than other starters.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#262 » by bwgood77 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:53 pm

bigfoot wrote:
WeekapaugGroove wrote:
Bogyo wrote:

Wow. That looks nasty. No judgement yet on this - eye test, and other numbers have been good on him on D.
And I'm not his biggest fan to say the least, I could easily imagine someone else in his place on the Suns.
Something to monitor but could also be small sample size noise because I agree eye test wise he's been fine.

Overall the net rating numbers for the starters haven't been great but some of that has been fourth quarter with a lead clunkyness. Now they need to improve that and learn to actually play out these games and not try to just run out the game.

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If you look at the advanced PIE metric (player impact estimate) he is second behind Chris Paul and ahead of Johnson, Payne, Bridges, and Booker. His overall impact is positive compared to most players.

Now he does have a surprisingly large defensive rating but so do Booker and Paul. They are all targets of the pick-n-roll. It would interesting to see if that is the area where he is suffering on defense.


Yeah, if you look at the box based stats, Ayton is near the top on Floor Impact Counter, and the ratings on offense/defense and net are calculated differently. Now the nba.com ones can tell you more, and are better to rely on with a large sample size,but they also need context because it really depends on who you are on the floor with, whereas the box based ratings (based on bref) are not impacted by that as much.

You can also see where Bridges is #1 in eDiff (net rtg) here which makes sense. Per nba.com, stats it's Frank Kaminsky.

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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#263 » by Revived » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:05 pm

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They are all the #1 options on their teams too....probably get way more touches than Ayton.

None of those guys look to pass as their first choice after getting the ball. Even Jokic will look to score if he's open or has a mismatch but Ayton tries to pass even when he has guards like Brogdon guarding him.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#264 » by bwgood77 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:26 pm

Revived wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
NTB wrote:
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They are all the #1 options on their teams too....probably get way more touches than Ayton.

None of those guys look to pass as their first choice after getting the ball. Even Jokic will look to score if he's open or has a mismatch but Ayton tries to pass even when he has guards like Brogdon guarding him.


You must watch a lot of basketball..

Lets look at points per post touch for centers with the most touches. Points per post touch on far right...Ayton looking pretty good there comparatively and he's almost suredly double teamed more than most all these guys. He scores WAY more on points per post touch than Embiid, Towns or Jokic, and more than most any of the Cs with a lot of touches...except one.

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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#265 » by GoodBehavior » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:32 pm

lilfishi22 wrote:
GoodBehavior wrote:If Ayton was smart, he would pack on weight this offseason (15+ lb). Mo Bamba has packed on weight and it has helped him from being unplayable to an interesting big. I think Ayton envision himself as a forward/center, but that experiment is just not yielding great results. His dream of being an Anthony Davis / Kevin Garnett type player is pure fantasy at this point. Dribbling is still rough and looks awkward, 3 point shot hasn't progress much. Pick and roll offense looks to have regressed, etc.

I remember Ryan says he was drafted to be a low post dominant player. You can't be a low post player at 250 lbs. His defense will be negatively impacted (if he gains weight) but his offense would take off, IMO. He looks undersized as a center, which is not what fans envisioned when he was drafted.

I disagree. Ayton is as big and as strong as he was expected to be. As for Bambam he had to pack on weight because he was severely underweight for his size so packing on weight was just to get back to average. Ayton isn't a low post dominant player, matter of fact, he doesn't want to dominant on offense at all seemingly. He's the perfect size to play C in today's NBA where those 300lb C's of yesteryears are extremely rare (Boban? anyone else?). 250lbs is perfect as he has enough size and strength to guard most C's but also light enough for him to do the thing he does best at and that's sliding laterally and moving around the court.

The fact is this, gaining weight isn't going to do much for him other than slow him down and keep him even closer to the ground because he's not going to use the added weight for offense anyway


Additional weight allows him to push people around. He's one of the best at finishing in the post, like other poster has highlighted, with a PPP of 1.05. He has a variety of moves that are hard to guard. The issue with him is his inability to drive people back when he catches the rock away from the paint. He can't. At 250 lb, he has no to little chance of backing down centers who are 270 lb+. Bam, fwiw, is heavier than Ayton (260 vs 250), which makes zero sense, since Bam is considered a "small ball" center.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#266 » by lilfishi22 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:03 am

GoodBehavior wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:
GoodBehavior wrote:If Ayton was smart, he would pack on weight this offseason (15+ lb). Mo Bamba has packed on weight and it has helped him from being unplayable to an interesting big. I think Ayton envision himself as a forward/center, but that experiment is just not yielding great results. His dream of being an Anthony Davis / Kevin Garnett type player is pure fantasy at this point. Dribbling is still rough and looks awkward, 3 point shot hasn't progress much. Pick and roll offense looks to have regressed, etc.

I remember Ryan says he was drafted to be a low post dominant player. You can't be a low post player at 250 lbs. His defense will be negatively impacted (if he gains weight) but his offense would take off, IMO. He looks undersized as a center, which is not what fans envisioned when he was drafted.

I disagree. Ayton is as big and as strong as he was expected to be. As for Bambam he had to pack on weight because he was severely underweight for his size so packing on weight was just to get back to average. Ayton isn't a low post dominant player, matter of fact, he doesn't want to dominant on offense at all seemingly. He's the perfect size to play C in today's NBA where those 300lb C's of yesteryears are extremely rare (Boban? anyone else?). 250lbs is perfect as he has enough size and strength to guard most C's but also light enough for him to do the thing he does best at and that's sliding laterally and moving around the court.

The fact is this, gaining weight isn't going to do much for him other than slow him down and keep him even closer to the ground because he's not going to use the added weight for offense anyway


Additional weight allows him to push people around. He's one of the best at finishing in the post, like other poster has highlighted, with a PPP of 1.05. He has a variety of moves that are hard to guard. The issue with him is his inability to drive people back when he catches the rock away from the paint. He can't. At 250 lb, he has no to little chance of backing down centers who are 270 lb+. Bam, fwiw, is heavier than Ayton (260 vs 250), which makes zero sense, since Bam is considered a "small ball" center.

He's a good finesse finisher because he has great hands and he's quick.

With regards to the weight, there's two points I want to make.

1. I had a look across the league and using the BRef as the data base and taking players who have at least a 10lb weight advantage over Ayton as having a measurable physical advantage over him, there are 20 players. Of those 20 players, he likely has the speed advantage over all of them. Zion and McGee might be the only two guys are are fairly quick for their weight. In today's NBA, why are we still investing in the "arms race" of having the biggest guy in the post? This isn't 2000's basketball anymore. Having the biggest and strongest guy in the post doesn't win you games otherwise Dallas would be playing Boban a lot more than 8mpg. Ayton is a good finesse scorer and he's strong enough and (more importantly) fast enough to negate whatever weight advantage most of his defenders has over him. The only time he doesn't have an advantage over these massive bigs is if he plays right into their strength which is low post defense. How do you further negate heavy big men with good low post defense? You PnR them off the court.

2. This day and age, playing the throw the ball to your C to back down for 8sec game, is a losing strategy. Even if he had the added weight to back people down, how many of those possessions do we want to play over moving the ball around, find the open man or finding an open/rolling Ayton? You say there will be no impact to his quickness but I just don't believe adding 15-20lbs won't affect him. You can't gain something without giving up nothing. Right now his most impactful and valuable attribute is his ability to guard the perimeter on switches *and* recover to defend the rim when a guard gets past him. This is a very PnR heavy era and having a good big man defender on the PnR is massive. Slowing him down at the expense of decreasing his lateral quickness for a few post up possessions is an awful trade off.

I'm not totally against him gaining say 5-10lbs max but any weight he adds will come at the cost of quickness and speed. Right now, I wouldn't want to sacrifice any of his effectiveness on defense at the cost of a few post up opportunities.
alamin330 wrote:This draft reminds me of the 2003 draft.
Lebron - Zion, Barrett like Melo, wade like Culver, garland like tj ford, hunter like bosh, white like Barbosa, Clarke like David West. I think this draft is actually going to be deeper though
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#267 » by NTB » Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:05 am

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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#268 » by Revived » Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:07 am

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This isn’t good, CP3 was supposed to help develop Ayton further.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#269 » by Revived » Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:17 am

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Yeah this fits the eye test more than the points per post touch stat bwgood posted.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#270 » by lilfishi22 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:55 am

What is Ayton offensively? I see a bunch of posts saying we're not using him right, he's not this kinda player or that kinda player etc but when I sit down and think, I can't figure what he is offensively.

He's not a particularly strong roll man on the PnR. Every time I see him going towards the basket, he doesn't really make himself available. He definitely doesn't make himself available with his lazy hops. He should be able to out jump a bunch of stiffs but because he doesn't, our PnR ball handlers don't throw him the lobs.

He's not a very good low post scorer. He really has one or two moves where only one gets him closer to the basket (spin move to a hook) whereas the other one is a fadeaway. He really doesn't back down people defending him even when he's being defended by a wing as he'd rather just try and use his length to score over his defender. The fadeaway is decent and although I haven't looked at the stats, the eye test tells me he's been pretty good with that shot this season. Problem is that the fadeaway isn't really a shot that is overly reliable, he's no Dirk.

He's actually a decent garbage bucket getter when he isn't passing the ball out the first chance he gets. Fine if he doesn't dunk as long as he get the bucket but far too often he's passing it out even when he has a foot in the restricted area. So he's not even a super reliable garbage man either.

So what is Ayton offensively?
alamin330 wrote:This draft reminds me of the 2003 draft.
Lebron - Zion, Barrett like Melo, wade like Culver, garland like tj ford, hunter like bosh, white like Barbosa, Clarke like David West. I think this draft is actually going to be deeper though
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#271 » by bigfoot » Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:56 am

That goodness we drafted another big in Stix. Ayton is just keeping the center spot warm until we can trade him.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#272 » by itlnsunsfan » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:27 am

lilfishi22 wrote:What is Ayton offensively? I see a bunch of posts saying we're not using him right, he's not this kinda player or that kinda player etc but when I sit down and think, I can't figure what he is offensively.

He's not a particularly strong roll man on the PnR. Every time I see him going towards the basket, he doesn't really make himself available. He definitely doesn't make himself available with his lazy hops. He should be able to out jump a bunch of stiffs but because he doesn't, our PnR ball handlers don't throw him the lobs.

He's not a very good low post scorer. He really has one or two moves where only one gets him closer to the basket (spin move to a hook) whereas the other one is a fadeaway. He really doesn't back down people defending him even when he's being defended by a wing as he'd rather just try and use his length to score over his defender. The fadeaway is decent and although I haven't looked at the stats, the eye test tells me he's been pretty good with that shot this season. Problem is that the fadeaway isn't really a shot that is overly reliable, he's no Dirk.

He's actually a decent garbage bucket getter when he isn't passing the ball out the first chance he gets. Fine if he doesn't dunk as long as he get the bucket but far too often he's passing it out even when he has a foot in the restricted area. So he's not even a super reliable garbage man either.

So what is Ayton offensively?


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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#273 » by lilfishi22 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:47 am

Maybe it's hopeless but my hope with Ayton's mental aversion to contact/scoring in the paint when he's in the paint is the same with TJ Warren and his 3pt shot.

Most would remember, TJ didn't like shooting the 3 when he got into the NBA and while he had a solid sophomore season hitting 40% from 3 (on 1.5 3PA a game), instead of building off it, he went away from it for two whole seasons for whatever reason. Then all of a sudden in the offseason leading up to his 5th season, he put in the work and shot 42,000 three's in preparation for the upcoming season and he not only did he more than double his 3PA's (4.2 per game), he also raised his accuracy to well above 40%.

I thought Ayton made some progress offensively last season and I thought he'd build off that in the offseason. What I see instead is a regression. I just hope that it doesn't take until year 5 for him to figure out that hey, his scoring is not just valuable but we can actually be a really good team if he's looking for his shot.
alamin330 wrote:This draft reminds me of the 2003 draft.
Lebron - Zion, Barrett like Melo, wade like Culver, garland like tj ford, hunter like bosh, white like Barbosa, Clarke like David West. I think this draft is actually going to be deeper though
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#274 » by SunsLyf3 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:08 am

The only thing that keeps me with some hope is that he has about a season and a half of games under his belt. He's technically hitting his sophmore slump.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#275 » by Blackification » Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:11 am

lilfishi22 wrote:Maybe it's hopeless but my hope with Ayton's mental aversion to contact/scoring in the paint when he's in the paint is the same with TJ Warren and his 3pt shot.

Most would remember, TJ didn't like shooting the 3 when he got into the NBA and while he had a solid sophomore season hitting 40% from 3 (on 1.5 3PA a game), instead of building off it, he went away from it for two whole seasons for whatever reason. Then all of a sudden in the offseason leading up to his 5th season, he put in the work and shot 42,000 three's in preparation for the upcoming season and he not only did he more than double his 3PA's (4.2 per game), he also raised his accuracy to well above 40%.

I thought Ayton made some progress offensively last season and I thought he'd build off that in the offseason. What I see instead is a regression. I just hope that it doesn't take until year 5 for him to figure out that hey, his scoring is not just valuable but we can actually be a really good team if he's looking for his shot.

When's his contract year? He will figure it out then and play with effort only to regress back once he gets his payday.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#276 » by lilfishi22 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:23 am

Blackification wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:Maybe it's hopeless but my hope with Ayton's mental aversion to contact/scoring in the paint when he's in the paint is the same with TJ Warren and his 3pt shot.

Most would remember, TJ didn't like shooting the 3 when he got into the NBA and while he had a solid sophomore season hitting 40% from 3 (on 1.5 3PA a game), instead of building off it, he went away from it for two whole seasons for whatever reason. Then all of a sudden in the offseason leading up to his 5th season, he put in the work and shot 42,000 three's in preparation for the upcoming season and he not only did he more than double his 3PA's (4.2 per game), he also raised his accuracy to well above 40%.

I thought Ayton made some progress offensively last season and I thought he'd build off that in the offseason. What I see instead is a regression. I just hope that it doesn't take until year 5 for him to figure out that hey, his scoring is not just valuable but we can actually be a really good team if he's looking for his shot.

When's his contract year? He will figure it out then and play with effort only to regress back once he gets his payday.

Earliest he's eligible for an extension is this upcoming off-season so this season is technically contract year
alamin330 wrote:This draft reminds me of the 2003 draft.
Lebron - Zion, Barrett like Melo, wade like Culver, garland like tj ford, hunter like bosh, white like Barbosa, Clarke like David West. I think this draft is actually going to be deeper though
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#277 » by Revived » Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:07 am

Blackification wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:Maybe it's hopeless but my hope with Ayton's mental aversion to contact/scoring in the paint when he's in the paint is the same with TJ Warren and his 3pt shot.

Most would remember, TJ didn't like shooting the 3 when he got into the NBA and while he had a solid sophomore season hitting 40% from 3 (on 1.5 3PA a game), instead of building off it, he went away from it for two whole seasons for whatever reason. Then all of a sudden in the offseason leading up to his 5th season, he put in the work and shot 42,000 three's in preparation for the upcoming season and he not only did he more than double his 3PA's (4.2 per game), he also raised his accuracy to well above 40%.

I thought Ayton made some progress offensively last season and I thought he'd build off that in the offseason. What I see instead is a regression. I just hope that it doesn't take until year 5 for him to figure out that hey, his scoring is not just valuable but we can actually be a really good team if he's looking for his shot.

When's his contract year? He will figure it out then and play with effort only to regress back once he gets his payday.

He’s gonna be up for an extension in 5 months from now.

We don’t have to give it to him but it’s gonna be kinda awkward for him to seeing his fellow draft mate that was selected 10 picks later in Bridges sign a fat (deserving) extension while he has to wait till the next year. He’s gonna see others from his draft sign max deals as well including Luka, Trae, SGA etc.

But you bring up a really good point and I’ve hinted at it before even though I haven’t openly said it. But I’ll say it now, I think Ayton is the type of player who is gonna mail it in after getting paid. He doesn’t seem like the type to have the drive to keep getting better after getting his 2nd contract (which he previously said was his biggest goal).

This isn’t based on anything factual btw just my opinion from the vibes I’ve gotten from him.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#278 » by Blackification » Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:00 am

Revived wrote:
Blackification wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:Maybe it's hopeless but my hope with Ayton's mental aversion to contact/scoring in the paint when he's in the paint is the same with TJ Warren and his 3pt shot.

Most would remember, TJ didn't like shooting the 3 when he got into the NBA and while he had a solid sophomore season hitting 40% from 3 (on 1.5 3PA a game), instead of building off it, he went away from it for two whole seasons for whatever reason. Then all of a sudden in the offseason leading up to his 5th season, he put in the work and shot 42,000 three's in preparation for the upcoming season and he not only did he more than double his 3PA's (4.2 per game), he also raised his accuracy to well above 40%.

I thought Ayton made some progress offensively last season and I thought he'd build off that in the offseason. What I see instead is a regression. I just hope that it doesn't take until year 5 for him to figure out that hey, his scoring is not just valuable but we can actually be a really good team if he's looking for his shot.

When's his contract year? He will figure it out then and play with effort only to regress back once he gets his payday.

He’s gonna be up for an extension in 5 months from now.

We don’t have to give it to him but it’s gonna be kinda awkward for him to seeing his fellow draft mate that was selected 10 picks later in Bridges sign a fat (deserving) extension while he has to wait till the next year. He’s gonna see others from his draft sign max deals as well including Luka, Trae, SGA etc.

But you bring up a really good point and I’ve hinted at it before even though I haven’t openly said it. But I’ll say it now, I think Ayton is the type of player who is gonna mail it in after getting paid. He doesn’t seem like the type to have the drive to keep getting better after getting his 2nd contract (which he previously said was his biggest goal).

This isn’t based on anything factual btw just my opinion from the vibes I’ve gotten from him.

Well **** he said as much himself what else do you need. We are talking about Mr. my goal is to get to my next contract.
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#279 » by Frank Lee » Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:51 am

He sure wasted a tattoo
What ? Me Worry ?
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Re: Deandre Ayton year 3, the next step 

Post#280 » by sasquatchBob » Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:12 am

itlnsunsfan wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:What is Ayton offensively? I see a bunch of posts saying we're not using him right, he's not this kinda player or that kinda player etc but when I sit down and think, I can't figure what he is offensively.

He's not a particularly strong roll man on the PnR. Every time I see him going towards the basket, he doesn't really make himself available. He definitely doesn't make himself available with his lazy hops. He should be able to out jump a bunch of stiffs but because he doesn't, our PnR ball handlers don't throw him the lobs.

He's not a very good low post scorer. He really has one or two moves where only one gets him closer to the basket (spin move to a hook) whereas the other one is a fadeaway. He really doesn't back down people defending him even when he's being defended by a wing as he'd rather just try and use his length to score over his defender. The fadeaway is decent and although I haven't looked at the stats, the eye test tells me he's been pretty good with that shot this season. Problem is that the fadeaway isn't really a shot that is overly reliable, he's no Dirk.

He's actually a decent garbage bucket getter when he isn't passing the ball out the first chance he gets. Fine if he doesn't dunk as long as he get the bucket but far too often he's passing it out even when he has a foot in the restricted area. So he's not even a super reliable garbage man either.

So what is Ayton offensively?


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