The 2020 Draft: A Post-Mortem

[bwgood77]

A backup 5 at #10 is certainly something.

Many of the top 10 players are probably backups. Haliburton or Vassell would have been backups for us.

Avdija probably a backup for Bertans. Patrick Williams at 4 probably a backup. Okongwu probably a backup for now. Hayes probably too behind Rose for a year.

There are many more minutes available at backup guard/ wing than there are at backup center, especially when the starting center plays big minutes

I agree, which is why I want a guard/wing with our exceptions. They may rather have a rookie at the big positions since guards and wings are more important (so want vets there) since they want to go all in with Paul.

But Smith can probably end up playing with Ayton some with work, and especially all these big lineups we are likely going to see watching the FA signings...Ayton can guard wings some with Smith a better shot blocker and Smith can spread the floor on offense while Ayton plays inside.

[sunskerr]

Im a believer in BPA when drafting so as long as the FO thinks Smith was the BPA then I get the move. Defensively the fit is "good enough" as long as they don't play Ayton at the 4 for too long (there isn't a 7 footer in the league who can switch and play perimeter D for starters minutes - no not even Davis).

If you draft BPA even if your fit sucks, you give yourself a higher chance to draft someone you can flip for another piece, or you can flip to person the BPA replaces: for example, god forbid Ayton stays at 18/10 with no threes, you hope Smith pans out as the Serge Ibaka comparison, making Ayton tradeable. Or if they both pan out then you have a guy to trade for a point guard/wing/whatever OR you've found your starting PF.

All good as long as he was BPA according to our FO. There is no real downside to drafting BPA.

[oddity]

I personally don't think Jalen will push DA to the 4 a all. He has potential as a legit switchable perimeter defender. his biggest weakness is his stance, but his agility and foot speed is not as "stiff" as some draft sites claim. He is not Obi Toppin, with cinderblocks on his feet.
Jalen is going to play the 4

[bwgood77]

Im a believer in BPA when drafting so as long as the FO thinks Smith was the BPA then I get the move. Defensively the fit is "good enough" as long as they don't play Ayton at the 4 for too long (there isn't a 7 footer in the league who can switch and play perimeter D for starters minutes - no not even Davis).

If you draft BPA even if your fit sucks, you give yourself a higher chance to draft someone you can flip for another piece, or you can flip to person the BPA replaces: for example, god forbid Ayton stays at 18/10 with no threes, you hope Smith pans out as the Serge Ibaka comparison, making Ayton tradeable. Or if they both pan out then you have a guy to trade for a point guard/wing/whatever OR you've found your starting PF.

All good as long as he was BPA according to our FO. There is no real downside to drafting BPA.

I'm fine with Ayton at 32 minutes at C and Smith at 16 and then Smith with maybe 10 minutes at PF.

Of course this doesn't account for Saric, but eventually, if Saric is gone, or maybe just plays more 4.

If Smith can become more of a 4, or play with Ayton where Ayton is the 4 on defense, and they can play more like 20 minutes together it might be better.

I doubt Smith would be any worse in the long term guarding smaller 4s than Saric is..he can't move slower than that.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Im a believer in BPA when drafting so as long as the FO thinks Smith was the BPA then I get the move. Defensively the fit is "good enough" as long as they don't play Ayton at the 4 for too long (there isn't a 7 footer in the league who can switch and play perimeter D for starters minutes - no not even Davis).

If you draft BPA even if your fit sucks, you give yourself a higher chance to draft someone you can flip for another piece, or you can flip to person the BPA replaces: for example, god forbid Ayton stays at 18/10 with no threes, you hope Smith pans out as the Serge Ibaka comparison, making Ayton tradeable. Or if they both pan out then you have a guy to trade for a point guard/wing/whatever OR you've found your starting PF.

All good as long as he was BPA according to our FO. There is no real downside to drafting BPA.

I'm fine with Ayton at 32 minutes at C and Smith at 16 and then Smith with maybe 10 minutes at PF.

Of course this doesn't account for Saric, but eventually, if Saric is gone, or maybe just plays more 4.

If Smith can become more of a 4, or play with Ayton where Ayton is the 4 on defense, and they can play more like 20 minutes together it might be better.

I doubt Smith would be any worse in the long term guarding smaller 4s than Saric is..he can't move slower than that.

Comparing to Toppin a littlle worse...not nearly the finisher or quite the shooter, so overall FG% not as good, and not nearly the passer, but he does block double the shots and has the better DRTG and DBPM...they have a similar ORTG and DRTG and Net RTG though. And of course Jalen is 2 years younger...I'm sure he was better at the same age. http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jalen-smith--obi-toppin

First of all, injuries. Injuries, injuries, injuries. I think if we're completely health, Smith might play about 14 MPG to start the season. He'll play more as he earns minutes, and then of course there will be injuries. I don't expect to see him next to Ayton much at all for a while. He's still a kid. He'll get better, and he'll probably stay healthier than most players because of his youth. Whether he and Ayton can co-exist will be important down the line, but not that much next year.

It's funny because age is the most objective metric, you'd think it would have weighed more heavily on the mocking community. When you consider that Smith and Toppin are so similar in terms of their advanced metrics, and all the others with said advanced metrics either don't win (like Paul Reed, who I liked), or play like bigs of yore (like Vernon Carey), it's peculiar that Jalen wasn't hyped at all leading up to the draft.

And then you think about how the name of the game for bigs in today's NBA is 3's and blocks and you wonder, Why would Jalen Smith not be thought of as a lottery pick?

Personally, I don't think we reached.

[suns12345]

Im a believer in BPA when drafting so as long as the FO thinks Smith was the BPA then I get the move. Defensively the fit is "good enough" as long as they don't play Ayton at the 4 for too long (there isn't a 7 footer in the league who can switch and play perimeter D for starters minutes - no not even Davis).

If you draft BPA even if your fit sucks, you give yourself a higher chance to draft someone you can flip for another piece, or you can flip to person the BPA replaces: for example, god forbid Ayton stays at 18/10 with no threes, you hope Smith pans out as the Serge Ibaka comparison, making Ayton tradeable. Or if they both pan out then you have a guy to trade for a point guard/wing/whatever OR you've found your starting PF.

All good as long as he was BPA according to our FO. There is no real downside to drafting BPA.

I'm fine with Ayton at 32 minutes at C and Smith at 16 and then Smith with maybe 10 minutes at PF.

Of course this doesn't account for Saric, but eventually, if Saric is gone, or maybe just plays more 4.

If Smith can become more of a 4, or play with Ayton where Ayton is the 4 on defense, and they can play more like 20 minutes together it might be better.

I doubt Smith would be any worse in the long term guarding smaller 4s than Saric is..he can't move slower than that.

Comparing to Toppin a littlle worse...not nearly the finisher or quite the shooter, so overall FG% not as good, and not nearly the passer, but he does block double the shots and has the better DRTG and DBPM...they have a similar ORTG and DRTG and Net RTG though. And of course Jalen is 2 years younger...I'm sure he was better at the same age. http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jalen-smith--obi-toppin

First of all, injuries. Injuries, injuries, injuries. I think if we're completely health, Smith might play about 14 MPG to start the season. He'll play more as he earns minutes, and then of course there will be injuries. I don't expect to see him next to Ayton much at all for a while. He's still a kid. He'll get better, and he'll probably stay healthier than most players because of his youth. Whether he and Ayton can co-exist will be important down the line, but not that much next year.

It's funny because age is the most objective metric, you'd think it would have weighed more heavily on the mocking community. When you consider that Smith and Toppin are so similar in terms of their advanced metrics, and all the others with said advanced metrics either don't win (like Paul Reed, who I liked), or play like bigs of yore (like Vernon Carey), it's peculiar that Jalen wasn't hyped at all leading up to the draft.

And then you think about how the name of the game for bigs in today's NBA is 3's and blocks and you wonder, Why would Jalen Smith not be thought of as a lottery pick?

Personally, I don't think we reached.

I agree, i don't really do any draft research at all, but when I looked up Smith after we drafted him, and alexander after we signed him, the logic behind those pick ups and their potential fit is clear. Both defensive minded, who can shoot and have good length with a bit of potential. Can't be too upset with that in a weak draft.

[NavLDO]

I didn't follow the pre-draft nearly as closely as usual, so I'm confused, when, after reading pre- and post-draft analysis, why Smith is being hailed as nothing more than a back-up 5, by the so-called draft-grading pundits, when most pre-draft analysis I've read, pitted Smith as being a PF, forced to play out of position at Maryland as a 5? Not a lot of NBA 5s at 6'10 1/4", 225lbs...

Then, I compared him to 3 other similar prospects, who were technically ranked higher than Smith (for what reason, IDK). Usually, older guys get knocked down the board, like Cam did last year...Toppin will be 23 at the start of the year. Smith is the tallest, with the longest wingspan of the four prospects. Smith's biggest knock is his lack of assists...but add in the fact he had the lowest TO rate, as well, and all of a sudden, that's not so much of an issue.

Anyway, as some have already alluded, Smith weaknesses are coachable, or fixed with the aid of a nutritionist. This was a solid pick; so much better than the JJ, Bender, Chriss picks.

[jcsunsfan]

I have no idea why Pat Williams was rated highe. Obi I get. Okwangu has less range. By the way, I think the first pick Wil be meh or even a bust. Same with Ball.

Halliburton will be a solid player but not a star.