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2021 Season Speculation - Tough stretch coming up - new poll

Moderators: bwgood77, Qwigglez, lilfishi22, Kerrsed

How many games will we win 4/19-4/30 @Mil, Phi, Bos, Bkn, NY, home vs LAC, Utah

0
0
No votes
1
1
3%
2
0
No votes
3
6
17%
4
16
46%
5
11
31%
6
0
No votes
7
1
3%
 
Total votes: 35

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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2681 » by Fo-Real » Mon Apr 5, 2021 10:49 pm

cberry78 wrote:We need more small forwards right?

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/262155/Thunder-Waive-Justin-Jackson


Always felt that kid got bad situations and bad fits. Though he had the potential to be much better, kid can shoot. That said, I wouldn't mind a two way!! He and Cam Johnson seem pretty close, Bridges, Cam and him could push each other, I can't see Craig and Nader staying for cheap next year, so he would be good to have.
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2682 » by lilfishi22 » Mon Apr 5, 2021 11:46 pm

King4Day wrote:From the general board:

Andrew Bogut on Kelly Oubre saying he wouldn't come off the bench next season: "Warriors players didn't take lightly to those comments. They made it known Iguodala, a Finals MVP was OK with coming off the bench but Kelly MFing Oubre won't. That was to his face from an unknown player in the locker room who was not happy with those comments"

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-basketball-podcast-episode-15-with-mike-procopio/id1541789772?i=1000515744459

Right around the 1:04:00 mark

Shortly beforehand he also talks about a proposed trade where the Pelicans offered the Warriors Lonzo Ball and a pick for Oubre, but turned it down.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2069600&p=90029908#p90029908


I feel like we may have dodged a bullet with Oubre. Seems like he's a 'me first' player/personality.

It never came out when he was on the Suns but I felt like everyone and their dog wanted to experiment with bringing Oubre off the bench instead of Mikal/Cam because Oubre just has the makings of an elite 6th man with his energy, hustle, highlight plays and preference for iso ball. It never happened on the Suns and I think when he opted out of playing in the Bubble, it just signalled to JJ and Monty that he isn't a team player despite actually being a good chemistry and locker room guy.
alamin330 wrote:This draft reminds me of the 2003 draft.
Lebron - Zion, Barrett like Melo, wade like Culver, garland like tj ford, hunter like bosh, white like Barbosa, Clarke like David West. I think this draft is actually going to be deeper though
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2683 » by cberry78 » Mon Apr 5, 2021 11:53 pm

Fo-Real wrote:
cberry78 wrote:We need more small forwards right?

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/262155/Thunder-Waive-Justin-Jackson


Always felt that kid got bad situations and bad fits. Though he had the potential to be much better, kid can shoot. That said, I wouldn't mind a two way!! He and Cam Johnson seem pretty close, Bridges, Cam and him could push each other, I can't see Craig and Nader staying for cheap next year, so he would be good to have.

I think Nader will be back next year if he wants to come back. He's the kind of dirt worker player you want on your bench - like a SF version of Carter - fits exactly the mold that JJ and Monty have been cultivating on this roster.
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2684 » by SunsRback4Good » Tue Apr 6, 2021 12:00 am

cberry78 wrote:
Fo-Real wrote:
cberry78 wrote:We need more small forwards right?

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/262155/Thunder-Waive-Justin-Jackson


Always felt that kid got bad situations and bad fits. Though he had the potential to be much better, kid can shoot. That said, I wouldn't mind a two way!! He and Cam Johnson seem pretty close, Bridges, Cam and him could push each other, I can't see Craig and Nader staying for cheap next year, so he would be good to have.

I think Nader will be back next year if he wants to come back. He's the kind of dirt worker player you want on your bench - like a SF version of Carter - fits exactly the mold that JJ and Monty have been cultivating on this roster.


We can't afford to lose Nader, he does every little thing defensively that Carter provides and can score on a higher clip as well.
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2685 » by lilfishi22 » Tue Apr 6, 2021 12:09 am

cberry78 wrote:
Fo-Real wrote:
cberry78 wrote:We need more small forwards right?

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/262155/Thunder-Waive-Justin-Jackson


Always felt that kid got bad situations and bad fits. Though he had the potential to be much better, kid can shoot. That said, I wouldn't mind a two way!! He and Cam Johnson seem pretty close, Bridges, Cam and him could push each other, I can't see Craig and Nader staying for cheap next year, so he would be good to have.

I think Nader will be back next year if he wants to come back. He's the kind of dirt worker player you want on your bench - like a SF version of Carter - fits exactly the mold that JJ and Monty have been cultivating on this roster.

I've been on the Nader bandwagon for as long as he's been on the Suns and I really believe he has value. I do wish he comes back next season because I think with more experience in regular NBA rotations, he could be really solid. This season he plays every possession like it's his last possession and he tends to gets reckless and careless because of that. If he played like he was gonna get regular PT, I think he'd be less concerned about not doing enough and actually play more disciplined basketball. A big athletic wing who plays defense, occasionally drive to the rim and shoot +40% from range is always great to have on the roster
alamin330 wrote:This draft reminds me of the 2003 draft.
Lebron - Zion, Barrett like Melo, wade like Culver, garland like tj ford, hunter like bosh, white like Barbosa, Clarke like David West. I think this draft is actually going to be deeper though
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2686 » by Bogyo » Tue Apr 6, 2021 6:46 am

bwgood77 wrote:538 has us projected at 49 wins, 2nd in the west..one game ahead of the Clips.

They have the Lakers in the 5 seed, one game ahead of the Mavs, who would be the 6 seed, who would be 1 game ahead of the Blazers for the 7 seed.

Grizzlies firmly in 8 seed. So in this case we'd get Blazers in first round (unless Grizzlies could beat them in play in tourney), then likely Clippers (potentially Dallas) in 2nd round, and then Jazz, Lakers or Nuggets in WCF...if we keep advancing.


Thats just too many "1game ahead"s for me :) But a lot of us were saying that this will be the case. I thought 4th-6th seeds will be decided by a game, or tie breakers. So a bit early to plan. I'd want the following in the first round though: Spurs>Grizz>Mavs. Then we'd go to the second most likely. There it will be a tossup, wether it's one of the LA teams, Denver or Portland. We'd have the most chance against Portland I think, we'd be underdogs against Denver or any LA.
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2687 » by bwgood77 » Tue Apr 6, 2021 2:28 pm

Three players in the best players under 25 rankings by future potential:

NBA's best 25 under 25: Ranking young stars by future potential
play
Luka Doncic blows past the defense and drives it in for the two-handed finish. (0:17)

Bobby Marks, Kevin Pelton and Mike Schmitz rank their top 25 players under age 25 based on future potential, including LaMelo Ball, Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Zion Williamson and Trae Young.

Note: Each writer's individual rankings are listed at the bottom of this story. These rankings are an average of those ballots. You can find the 2020 version of these rankings here.

Listen: Debating the rankings on the Hoop Collective podcast

1. Luka Doncic
Dallas Mavericks
G/F
Age: 22.0

Doncic joins Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant as the only players to sit in the top spot in back-to-back years.

Selected No. 3 in the 2018 NBA draft (don't remind Phoenix, Sacramento and Atlanta), Doncic is averaging 28.6 points, 8.1 rebounds and 8.8 assists this season. He is shooting a career-high 48.8% from the field and 37.1% from 3.

The 22-year old has been selected to start in two All-Star Games and will get named to the All-NBA team for a second consecutive season. Those All-NBA honors will make him eligible to sign a five-year, $200 million extension in the offseason. -- Marks


2. Zion Williamson
New Orleans Pelicans
F/C
Age: 20.7

Although Williamson already ranked second in our rankings a year ago, less than two months into his NBA career, he has solidified that spot with a breakthrough sophomore campaign. As Williamson expands his creation and playmaking off the dribble, he has improved his scoring every month this season without hampering his ultra-high shooting percentage.

The next step for Williamson is translating that individual brilliance into team success as the Pelicans battle for a spot in the play-in tournament. Building on the progress he has made defensively will help that cause. -- Pelton


3. LaMelo Ball
Charlotte Hornets
G
Age: 19.6

Prior to breaking his wrist, Ball was posting historic numbers for a 19-year-old, and the ease with which he was dissecting NBA defenses stood out even more than the production. Given his positional size, supernatural vision, elite instincts, creativity, touch and unwavering confidence, Ball has as much long-term upside as anyone in the NBA not named Zion or Luka.

What makes him special can't be taught, and the late-bloomer will likely become even more of a problem for defenses as he matures physically. -- Schmitz


4. Donovan Mitchell
Utah Jazz
G
Age: 24.5

The leading scorer on the NBA's best team, Mitchell continues to make progress in his development from a volume scorer early in his career into a well-rounded offensive force. This season, he has taken a step forward both as a 3-point shooter (making a career-high 40% while attempting a career-high 8.6 triples per game) and as a playmaker (his assist rate is up nearly a third on a per-minute basis).

A consistent presence in the top 10 of these rankings since debuting, Mitchell goes out with his highest position in his final year of eligibility. -- Pelton


5. Jayson Tatum
Boston Celtics
F
Age: 23.0

Exhibit A in the ironclad case that player development is not as linear as we'd like to think, Tatum hasn't taken nearly the step back this season that the Celtics' slide in the standings would suggest. He has increased his usage rate to a career-high 30% of Boston's plays without losing much in terms of efficiency and is handing out a career-high 4.3 assists per 36 minutes.

Also worth remembering: Tatum is a year and a half younger than Mitchell, who was also part of the loaded 2017 draft that produced four of the top nine players on this list. -- Pelton


6. De'Aaron Fox
Sacramento Kings
G
Age: 23.2

Fox is one of only seven players in the NBA averaging at least 24 points and 7 assists per game as the leader of a Kings franchise that finally appears headed in the right direction.

As I outlined last year, the game has slowed down for Fox -- he's striking that balance between using his blazing speed and taking what the defense gives him. According to Second Spectrum data, Fox generates the fifth-most points per chance on drives. He's also posting a 70% effective field goal percentage on shots in the restricted area.

Once he can get his 3-ball above league average, Fox will be close to unguardable. -- Schmitz


7. Ben Simmons
Philadelphia 76ers
G/F
Age: 24.7

Simmons falls out of the top five for the first time since 2018.

Despite the three-spot drop, Simmons is still considered one of the top defensive players in the NBA and likely will get named All-Defense for a second consecutive season. He ranks second in loose balls recovered and fourth in deflections, and is a big reason why the 76ers rank No. 2 in defensive efficiency. -- Marks


8. Devin Booker
Phoenix Suns
G
Age: 24.4

Booker joins Simmons as the only players who have appeared on the 25-under-25 list in five consecutive years.

Booker has helped elevate a perennial lottery team into one with the second-best record in the Western Conference. This season, he has scored 30-plus points in 13 games, including dropping 45 on 17-for-24 from the field in a win against Chicago.

Often knocked as a one-dimensional scorer, Booker is averaging a career high in steals while posting a 109.2 defensive rating -- the second best in his career. -- Marks


9. Bam Adebayo
Miami Heat
F/C
Age: 23.7

Future generations will be confused looking back at how Adebayo missed out on the All-Star Game despite improving across the board on a 2019-20 campaign that ended in the NBA Finals. With Miami's perimeter creators often unavailable due to injury, Adebayo has increased his scoring average by 3.4 points per game while continuing to hand out 5.3 assists per night.

One of the NBA's most versatile defenders, Adebayo anchors a top-10 defense that has been the Heat's reliable strength. -- Pelton


10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Oklahoma City Thunder
G
Age: 22.7

It wouldn't surprise me if SGA lands in the top five of next year's list. Taking the torch from Chris Paul, Gilgeous-Alexander has produced like the face of the franchise, improving his efficiency despite shouldering a much larger load in his third season. He's one of only eight players to average at least 23 points and 5 assists on over 60% true shooting.

On top of his improved shooting stroke (42% from 3), the smooth 6-foot-6 guard is starting to show more of the court vision that led me to tab him as the best non-Doncic point guard in the 2018 draft. -- Schmitz


11. Brandon Ingram
New Orleans Pelicans
F
Age: 23.5

Even with Williamson in the midst of a breakout season, Ingram has maintained his production while showing continual growth as a facilitator with the best assist-to-turnover ratio (1.98) of his career. Although he's not the same caliber of defender and has still yet to prove himself in the playoffs, Ingram is just five months older than Tatum -- equally as productive offensively with quite a bit of upside to grow into on both ends.

Just like when I ranked him ahead of Ben Simmons back in 2016, I'm bullish on Ingram's long-term potential and ability to turn New Orleans into a winner alongside Williamson. -- Schmitz


12. Jaylen Brown
Boston Celtics
G/F
Age: 24.4

Despite a disappointing season so far, the Celtics have two players in the top 15 in Tatum and Brown.

Named to his first All-Star Game in March, Brown is averaging career highs in minutes (33.9), points (24.5), field goal percentage (48.4%), assists (3.6), steals (1.3) and free throw efficiency (75.6%).

Brown is in the first year of a four-year, $107 million rookie extension and will earn a $1.3 million bonus for his All-Star selection if he appears in at least 58 games this season. -- Marks


13. Jamal Murray
Denver Nuggets
G
Age: 24.1

Even after moving up six spots from last season, Murray could be poised for another leap. Consider that Murray leads all players on this list with 6.8 wins produced, according to ESPN's real plus-minus.

While the other guards ahead of him may be more prolific scorers, Murray leads many of them in efficiency thanks to 41% 3-point shooting. That level of accuracy might not be sustainable on high volume (6.6 attempts per game), but Murray has always profiled as a better shooter than his middling 3-point percentage (36% career over his first four seasons). -- Pelton


14. Michael Porter Jr.
Denver Nuggets
F
Age: 22.7

Porter looked like he belonged in the top 10 of these rankings last month. In his 14 games (all starts), Porter averaged 20.3 points on 59.4% shooting from the field and 53.2% from 3 while posting 9.1 rebounds and only one turnover per game. The Nuggets went 11-3 during that stretch.

The last pick in the 2018 lottery, Porter is eligible for a rookie extension this offseason. -- Marks


15. Ja Morant
Memphis Grizzlies
G
Age: 21.6

No. 4 on my list last year, Morant hasn't yet made the superstar leap I expected as he's shooting just 25.4% from behind the arc and posting a 37.2 eFG% on above-the-break 3s. But the fact that Morant has the Grizzlies in the playoff hunt yet again speaks to his winning impact.

He remains a high-level passer and holds superstar potential with his unshakable confidence. Plus, it's important to remember that Morant was facing Ohio Valley Conference competition less than two years ago. Morant doesn't turn 22 until Aug. 10, and I would anticipate a De'Aaron Fox-like progression in Years 3 and 4. -- Schmitz


16. Trae Young
Atlanta Hawks
G
Age: 22.5

Young's career will be an interesting case study in the importance of defensive limitations. Because of his small stature, Young will always have a difficult time matching up with the league's best guards or playing a switch-heavy defense, forcing his coaches to get creative defensively.

Those concerns helped bump Young behind point guards who haven't been nearly as productive offensively at the same age. He has willingly taken a step back in the Hawks' offense this season with more weapons around him but remains nearly as indispensable to the team's ability to score as nearly any player in the league. -- Pelton


17. Mikal Bridges
Phoenix Suns
F
Age: 24.5

Bridges is one of five newcomers to this list.

Acquired from Philadelphia as part of a 2018 draft trade, Bridges has been promoted from sixth man to now permanent starter. Known as one of the top perimeter defenders in the league, the forward is averaging a career high in points (13.2), field goal percentage (52.9%), 3-point efficiency (40.5%) and true shooting percentage (64.7%).

The 24-year-old is extension-eligible this offseason. -- Marks


18. Domantas Sabonis
Indiana Pacers
F/C
Age: 24.9

One of just six players under 25 with multiple All-Star appearances to his credit, Sabonis has been metronomic in terms of putting up double-doubles (his 34 are tied for third most in the NBA this season) and handing out assists (his 6.0 per game rank 13th in league history among players 6-foot-11 or taller, per Stathead.com).

The issue holding Sabonis behind the other All-Stars on this list is whether he can successfully protect the rim defensively, a weakness when he doesn't play alongside NBA blocks leader Myles Turner. -- Pelton


19. Anthony Edwards
Minnesota Timberwolves
G
Age: 19.6

While LaMelo Ball is the headliner of this rookie class, Edwards has quietly put up huge scoring numbers over the past month, highlighted by a 42-point outburst in a win over the Suns. Built like a linebacker with elite change-of-direction burst and footwork resembling today's elite scorers, Edwards has the potential to lead the league in points someday, even if there's considerable room to improve his defensive consistency and decision-making.

His combination of power, quickness and shift is incredibly rare. I see Edwards as a future All-Star so long as he continues chipping away at some of his shortcomings. -- Schmitz


20. Deandre Ayton
Phoenix Suns
C
Age: 22.7

Ayton rounds out the trio of Suns players named to this list.

Despite averaging a career-low 14.5 PPG (on only 10.2 field goal attempts) and falling two spots back from a year ago, Ayton is having his most efficient season to date. The former No. 1 pick has a career-high 115.8 offensive rating while shooting 60.8% from the field with a true shooting percentage of 63.7%.

Like Bridges, Ayton is eligible for a rookie extension this offseason. -- Marks
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2688 » by bwgood77 » Tue Apr 6, 2021 3:08 pm

3rd in Athletic Power Rankings:

The Power Rankings heading into Week 16 of the 2020-21 regular season begin now!

1. Utah Jazz (↔Previously 1st), 38-11, +9.8 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Cavs, Win at Grizzlies, Win over Bulls, Win over Magic

Joe Ingles is ridiculous. The Utah Jazz swingman had a lot of issues last season trying to find comfort in a changing role for him. Coming off the bench was pretty tough for Ingles. They played around with his role and realized that when he was in the starting lineup, he looked like the Ingles of old. When they brought him off the bench, he was mediocre, especially as a shooter. This season? He might be challenging the frontrunner for Sixth Man of the Year and teammate Jordan Clarkson as the best reserve on the Jazz. Ingles has the best true shooting in the NBA at a blistering 73.6 percent. To put that in perspective, 12 players in NBA history have finished with 70 percent or better in true shooting while playing at least half the season. Ingles is the only player on that list to make more than three 3-pointers in a season and he’s currently the second highest true shooting.

Why are they ranked here? Yes, the schedule could not have been much easier for the Jazz this week, but they cruised and even had two monster victories that pushed their net rating nearly to +10.0 on the season.

2. Denver Nuggets (↑Previously 5th), 31-18, +5.3 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Sixers, Win at Clippers, Win over Magic

Can the offense be so good the defense doesn’t matter? I’m not convinced Aaron Gordon is going to truly help the Denver Nuggets defense, especially once they’re in the playoffs. Even though he wasn’t a regular contributor due to injuries, shipping Gary Harris out of town in the deal for Gordon meant the team had the same number of competent defenders on the roster. Also, Gordon just left an equally mediocre defense in Orlando, which he didn’t exactly save. However, the Nuggets have such a brilliant fit with Gordon offensively, especially with his gravity as a cutter in Nikola Jokic’s offense, that their approach on that end of the floor may be far too overwhelming for most opposing defenses. We know Brooklyn’s offense is so good that its poor defense doesn’t matter, but Denver has the potential to be in the same boat.

Why are they ranked here? Jokic didn’t set the world on fire with his performances this week, and they still beat a good Sixers team and a good Clippers team. Their schedule the rest of the season is pretty easy. We may see them challenge for the two seed, even though they’re four games behind Phoenix.

3. Phoenix Suns (↑Previously 7th), 34-14, +7.1 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Hawks, Win over Bulls, Win over Thunder

Are the Phoenix Suns set up for the most brutal 2-7 matchup possible? With the way the Los Angeles Lakers are suffering due to injuries, the Suns have to be looking at the lay of the land in the West, hoping the Lakers pull it together soon. There is a strong chance the Lakers lose so much ground in the Western Conference standings before LeBron James and Anthony Davis get healthy that they end up in the play-in tournament. At that point, they’d easily run through it and secure the seven seed. For a Suns team that has done everything right and been in the two seed for a while now, that would be an awful prize for earning the second best record in the West this season. They could still overcome it and shock the world, but they’ve got to hope the Lakers don’t fall past sixth. The suns making the playoffs is nice, but they have a chance to make a deeper run than expected.

Why are they ranked here? Easy schedule for the Suns this week, but they handled business the way they’re supposed to. They’ve now won eight of their last nine, but they’ll be challenged this week with a back-to-back against the Jazz and Clippers.
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2689 » by WeekapaugGroove » Tue Apr 6, 2021 3:45 pm

LaMelo is fun and better than I expected but 3rd on that list is flat out ridiculous.

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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2690 » by Bogyo » Tue Apr 6, 2021 4:16 pm

WeekapaugGroove wrote:LaMelo is fun and better than I expected but 3rd on that list is flat out ridiculous.

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Hype machine is on fo sho. Papa Ball will be back too for sure.
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2691 » by bwgood77 » Tue Apr 6, 2021 4:24 pm

WeekapaugGroove wrote:LaMelo is fun and better than I expected but 3rd on that list is flat out ridiculous.

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Pelton and Schmitz are 2 of the voters, and Melo rates as one of the best rookies ever at his age on Pelton's metric:

Yet as we stand, Ball is having one of the most impressive rookie seasons on record for a player his age. In fact, at his current pace, it would be the most wins above replacement player (WARP) by my metric for a rookie who played his entire first season at age 19 or younger, eclipsing LeBron James' and Dwight Howard' marks:

Rookie WARP (Age 19 Or Younger)
PLAYER SEASON TEAM AGE WARP
LaMelo Ball 2020-21 CHA 19.7 9.1*
LeBron James 2003-04 CLE 19.3 7.7
Dwight Howard 2004-05 ORL 19.4 7.7


They also both talk about how not only he is an incredible passer, but that he is a far better shooter than they expected, shooting 36% from spot up 3s and 39% on catch and shoots.

For example, he is a far better 3 pt shooter than Trae as a rookie. So he is a more efficient scorer than Trae while a year younger..and althought not a great defender, a better one. Now Trae's best trait is his passing, but is LaMelo even better there?

And of course Ja is shooting 25% from 3.

And there is this...for long 3s on high volume...best % with over 100 attempts from that range.

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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2692 » by WeekapaugGroove » Tue Apr 6, 2021 4:51 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
WeekapaugGroove wrote:LaMelo is fun and better than I expected but 3rd on that list is flat out ridiculous.

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Pelton and Schmitz are 2 of the voters, and Melo rates as one of the best rookies ever at his age on Pelton's metric:

Yet as we stand, Ball is having one of the most impressive rookie seasons on record for a player his age. In fact, at his current pace, it would be the most wins above replacement player (WARP) by my metric for a rookie who played his entire first season at age 19 or younger, eclipsing LeBron James' and Dwight Howard' marks:

Rookie WARP (Age 19 Or Younger)
PLAYER SEASON TEAM AGE WARP
LaMelo Ball 2020-21 CHA 19.7 9.1*
LeBron James 2003-04 CLE 19.3 7.7
Dwight Howard 2004-05 ORL 19.4 7.7


They also both talk about how not only he is an incredible passer, but that he is a far better shooter than they expected, shooting 36% from spot up 3s and 39% on catch and shoots.

For example, he is a far better 3 pt shooter than Trae as a rookie. So he is a more efficient scorer than Trae while a year younger..and althought not a great defender, a better one. Now Trae's best trait is his passing, but is LaMelo even better there?

And of course Ja is shooting 25% from 3.

And there is this...for long 3s on high volume...best % with over 100 attempts from that range.

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I'm in the camp that pretty much all the formulas used for overall ranking of basketball players are flawed and generally worthless. So much variance in what guys are asked to do on their team and variance in positions make them super flawed. Peltons included. The sooner we simply give up on finding the magic formula to rank all players the better.

I like LaMelo but for instance if I was starting a team tomorrow and I got to choose one of LaMelo or say Jaylen Brown give me Brown.

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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2693 » by bwgood77 » Tue Apr 6, 2021 5:05 pm

WeekapaugGroove wrote:I'm in the camp that pretty much all the formulas used for overall ranking of basketball players are flawed and generally worthless. So much variance in what guys are asked to do on their team and variance in positions make them super flawed. Peltons included. The sooner we simply give up on finding the magic formula to rank all players the better.

I like LaMelo but for instance if I was starting a team tomorrow and I got to choose one of LaMelo or say Jaylen Brown give me Brown.

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I'm just giving you their reasoning, and it is based on future potential. I have always looked at Pelton's stuff, but yeah, any 1 metric isn't going to be able to accurately assess everything about what a player can do or will be. But using the same metric to compare different players can be useful, especially if you look at other metrics as well. Given that LeBron and Howard are at the top, it's doing something right...but of course that's just based not only on how good players were at 19, but is limited because there are only so many players that were in the NBA at 19.

They just look at it as few players ever at age 19 could pass, get to the rim and shoot like he is. It's pretty unprecedented, so they compare where he may be in 5 years to someone like Mitchell or Booker, who are 5 years older, given where he already is.

I don't have a big opinion on it since I haven't given it a lot of though, though if starting a team I would take him over Brown due to age + upside even though Brown has become a very good player and has progressed nicely. Though if I needed a player tomorrow I'd take Brown.

I'm a huge fan of players with great court vision who make other players better though.
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2694 » by WeekapaugGroove » Tue Apr 6, 2021 7:00 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
WeekapaugGroove wrote:I'm in the camp that pretty much all the formulas used for overall ranking of basketball players are flawed and generally worthless. So much variance in what guys are asked to do on their team and variance in positions make them super flawed. Peltons included. The sooner we simply give up on finding the magic formula to rank all players the better.

I like LaMelo but for instance if I was starting a team tomorrow and I got to choose one of LaMelo or say Jaylen Brown give me Brown.

Sent from my SM-G986U using RealGM mobile app


I'm just giving you their reasoning, and it is based on future potential. I have always looked at Pelton's stuff, but yeah, any 1 metric isn't going to be able to accurately assess everything about what a player can do or will be. But using the same metric to compare different players can be useful, especially if you look at other metrics as well. Given that LeBron and Howard are at the top, it's doing something right...but of course that's just based not only on how good players were at 19, but is limited because there are only so many players that were in the NBA at 19.

They just look at it as few players ever at age 19 could pass, get to the rim and shoot like he is. It's pretty unprecedented, so they compare where he may be in 5 years to someone like Mitchell or Booker, who are 5 years older, given where he already is.

I don't have a big opinion on it since I haven't given it a lot of though, though if starting a team I would take him over Brown due to age + upside even though Brown has become a very good player and has progressed nicely. Though if I needed a player tomorrow I'd take Brown.

I'm a huge fan of players with great court vision who make other players better though.
After thinking about I think their biggest flaw is using such a wide range for the list. It's such an apples and oranges comp to have guys already on their second contract and in their prime like Booker comped with rookies.

They probably should have only used players in their first 3-4 years.

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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2695 » by King4Day » Tue Apr 6, 2021 7:02 pm

Assuming we finish top 4, which team would you rather face in round 1?
Or who do you think we matchup best with?
List your top 3 order and if you're up for it, explain why.

Dallas
GSW
LAL
SA
Portland
Denver
LAC
Memphis

For me, I think Dallas, but I worry Luka will go nuts and have a series that they win in the end and the league is all over him. But I think matchup wise, that's a team we might have more success against than say Denver or Portland.

I don't think SA or Memphis will make the playoffs so I'm not picking them.
Otherwise, Dal, GSW, Portland
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2696 » by BobbieL » Tue Apr 6, 2021 7:03 pm

McLemore to the Lakers per Shams Charania
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2697 » by bwgood77 » Tue Apr 6, 2021 7:10 pm

WeekapaugGroove wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
WeekapaugGroove wrote:I'm in the camp that pretty much all the formulas used for overall ranking of basketball players are flawed and generally worthless. So much variance in what guys are asked to do on their team and variance in positions make them super flawed. Peltons included. The sooner we simply give up on finding the magic formula to rank all players the better.

I like LaMelo but for instance if I was starting a team tomorrow and I got to choose one of LaMelo or say Jaylen Brown give me Brown.

Sent from my SM-G986U using RealGM mobile app


I'm just giving you their reasoning, and it is based on future potential. I have always looked at Pelton's stuff, but yeah, any 1 metric isn't going to be able to accurately assess everything about what a player can do or will be. But using the same metric to compare different players can be useful, especially if you look at other metrics as well. Given that LeBron and Howard are at the top, it's doing something right...but of course that's just based not only on how good players were at 19, but is limited because there are only so many players that were in the NBA at 19.

They just look at it as few players ever at age 19 could pass, get to the rim and shoot like he is. It's pretty unprecedented, so they compare where he may be in 5 years to someone like Mitchell or Booker, who are 5 years older, given where he already is.

I don't have a big opinion on it since I haven't given it a lot of though, though if starting a team I would take him over Brown due to age + upside even though Brown has become a very good player and has progressed nicely. Though if I needed a player tomorrow I'd take Brown.

I'm a huge fan of players with great court vision who make other players better though.
After thinking about I think their biggest flaw is using such a wide range for the list. It's such an apples and oranges comp to have guys already on their second contract and in their prime like Booker comped with rookies.

They probably should have only used players in their first 3-4 years.

Sent from my SM-G986U using RealGM mobile app


Yeah, though they've done this "under 25" list for a number of years. But yeah, someone like Booker is midway through his 6th season, so hard to compare to Melo on what their upside is.
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2698 » by bwgood77 » Tue Apr 6, 2021 7:15 pm

King4Day wrote:Assuming we finish top 4, which team would you rather face in round 1?
Or who do you think we matchup best with?
List your top 3 order and if you're up for it, explain why.

Dallas
GSW
LAL
SA
Portland
Denver
LAC
Memphis

For me, I think Dallas, but I worry Luka will go nuts and have a series that they win in the end and the league is all over him. But I think matchup wise, that's a team we might have more success against than say Denver or Portland.

I don't think SA or Memphis will make the playoffs so I'm not picking them.
Otherwise, Dal, GSW, Portland


I think Memphis gets 8th, and they are the team I'd probably most want to play due to their lack of playoff experience, but I'd be fine with GS to. Dallas and SA would be a toss up....two very well coached teams. I guess I'd probably prefer to play SA in that scenario.

Actually I'm not sure Memphis will get 8th now that I say that..I think they will finish in 8th place, but whether they can beat SA or GS given those teams' coaches and/or playoff experience could be tough.
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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2699 » by bwgood77 » Tue Apr 6, 2021 7:48 pm

I was checking out the avg TS% this year in the NBA after seeing a guy bragging about a player having a 52% TS%, and was a little surprised to see the avg is now over 57%....it's been going up every year, but it seems like it was 54% a couple years ago (I guess it was 56.5% last year).

Anyway, Brooklyn is over 60%, but a few other teams are really close. Seems to be a pretty good indication of how good your team is, which, obviously, makes sense. It would be interesting if they had opponents TS%...they don't on b-ref at least in that area I was looking...perhaps they do on nba.com.

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Re: 2021 Season Speculation - Roster complete? Buyout candidates? 

Post#2700 » by Saberestar » Tue Apr 6, 2021 7:58 pm

BobbieL wrote:McLemore to the Lakers per Shams Charania

The Lakers don't know what to do, they are desperate...he is worse than Galloway.

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