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Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ

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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#321 » by TouchPassDario » Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:17 pm

A lot of that is also just SSS noise. Dame has also missed a TON of big shots. I remember clearly him missing over a DA contest last year.

For teams with a high efficiency high usage player, most of the clutch stuff tends to regress.
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#322 » by bwgood77 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:23 pm

TouchPassDario wrote:A lot of that is also just SSS noise. Dame has also missed a TON of big shots. I remember clearly him missing over a DA contest last year.

For teams with a high efficiency high usage player, most of the clutch stuff tends to regress.


Jordan missed a lot of big shots. Dame has made more big shots than anyone in crucial moments, and I don't think it's that close. He singlehandedly brought them back in two games where they were down two possessions with under 10 seconds left. He's kind of like Reggie Miller with PG skills and more range.
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#323 » by TouchPassDario » Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:44 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
TouchPassDario wrote:A lot of that is also just SSS noise. Dame has also missed a TON of big shots. I remember clearly him missing over a DA contest last year.

For teams with a high efficiency high usage player, most of the clutch stuff tends to regress.


Jordan missed a lot of big shots. Dame has made more big shots than anyone in crucial moments, and I don't think it's that close. He singlehandedly brought them back in two games where they were down two possessions with under 10 seconds left. He's kind of like Reggie Miller with PG skills and more range.


Nope. Again, major SSS recency bias.

To wit: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/2019/4/24/18513808/damian-lillard-clutch-shot-history-game-winner-game-tying-shots-stats-trail-blazers-thunder

Crunch-time is defined by the NBA as the final five minutes or overtime for a team either ahead or behind five or fewer points. But Lillard has been so good, so late in games, we need to be a little more specific. Newly-named game-on-the-line time is the final minute of a game where a team is behind three or fewer points, or tied.

In his seven NBA regular seasons, Lillard has made 44-of-114 shots that fall in this category. That’s a 38.6 percent clip with the pressure of the world on his shoulders. For reference, 44 players — including Kevin Love, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Knox, and Allen Crabbe — shot 38.6 percent or worse from the field at all times this season.

Here’s how other star point guards stack up in Lillard time:

Kyrie Irving: 36-of-83 (43.3 percent) [2018-19]
Chris Paul: 47-of-119 (39.5 percent) [2018-19]
Stephen Curry: 27-of-76 (35.5 percent) [2018-19]
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#324 » by TouchPassDario » Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:45 pm

He has been UNUSUALLY clutch this year. Regression is the expectation.
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#325 » by bwgood77 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:51 pm

TouchPassDario wrote:He has been UNUSUALLY clutch this year. Regression is the expectation.


Players do improve. And a lot of this is based on skill + confidence, which he has.

But I'm not really talking about 5 minutes left or whatever but more like under 1 minute.

Not sure how many times or playoff series you have to see it with Lillard, but these shots come at huge game winning moments. I don't really care if someone shoots great with 5 to 3 minutes left but avg at the end for what I am saying.
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#326 » by WeekapaugGroove » Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:56 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
TouchPassDario wrote:He has been UNUSUALLY clutch this year. Regression is the expectation.


Players do improve. And a lot of this is based on skill + confidence, which he has.

But I'm not really talking about 5 minutes left or whatever but more like under 1 minute.

Not sure how many times or playoff series you have to see it with Lillard, but these shots come at huge game winning moments. I don't really care if someone shoots great with 5 to 3 minutes left but avg at the end for what I am saying.
In general the whole 'clutch' thing is probably overblown when you look at actual numbers on it. Like people thought Kobe was clutch but his FG% in those situations actually wasn't great.

Dame may be the outlyer though, that dude is ridiculous late. Now Dario will probably be right that some regression is probably coming because I doubt even Dame can keep it up at his current rate.

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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#327 » by TouchPassDario » Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:57 pm

The sample size is so small for literal game winning shots as to be predictively insignificant.
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#328 » by TouchPassDario » Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:58 pm

I doubt Lillard *improved* so much this year from the previous seven. Recency bias and Sss bias are sooooooo tough to grapple with mentally
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#329 » by bwgood77 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:06 pm

WeekapaugGroove wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
TouchPassDario wrote:He has been UNUSUALLY clutch this year. Regression is the expectation.


Players do improve. And a lot of this is based on skill + confidence, which he has.

But I'm not really talking about 5 minutes left or whatever but more like under 1 minute.

Not sure how many times or playoff series you have to see it with Lillard, but these shots come at huge game winning moments. I don't really care if someone shoots great with 5 to 3 minutes left but avg at the end for what I am saying.
In general the whole 'clutch' thing is probably overblown when you look at actual numbers on it. Like people thought Kobe was clutch but his FG% in those situations actually wasn't great.

Dame may be the outlyer though, that dude is ridiculous late. Now Dario will probably be right that some regression is probably coming because I doubt even Dame can keep it up at his current rate.

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I never thought Kobe was clutch. I have never thought anyone was particularly super clutch on big shots except maybe Reggie Miller and Kawhi a couple years ago in the playoffs. But I haven't seen anything like what Lillard has done this year and this is after having 30 foot series winning shots against the 2 seeded Nuggets a couple years ago and in many games since. I am not saying he is always clutch in every game at the end but that in big games or in big moments to win games, he is the best at it in the game..I can't really think of anyone close.

I understand recency bias and like regression when it comes to like NFL teams losing a ton of close games one year, so regression is expected the next (though it's been like 3-4 straight years for the Chargers).

But I do believe some players are better at play in big moments. Like I think Brady was better at it than Peyton Manning for example.

I mean, someone simply improving their 3pt shooting year over year, means they are becoming more clutch at those shots. Less hesitation, more confidence, learning how to shoot and move when defended, etc. Lillard strikes me as a guy that probably works on this.
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#330 » by lilfishi22 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:03 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
WeekapaugGroove wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
Players do improve. And a lot of this is based on skill + confidence, which he has.

But I'm not really talking about 5 minutes left or whatever but more like under 1 minute.

Not sure how many times or playoff series you have to see it with Lillard, but these shots come at huge game winning moments. I don't really care if someone shoots great with 5 to 3 minutes left but avg at the end for what I am saying.
In general the whole 'clutch' thing is probably overblown when you look at actual numbers on it. Like people thought Kobe was clutch but his FG% in those situations actually wasn't great.

Dame may be the outlyer though, that dude is ridiculous late. Now Dario will probably be right that some regression is probably coming because I doubt even Dame can keep it up at his current rate.

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I never thought Kobe was clutch. I have never thought anyone was particularly super clutch on big shots except maybe Reggie Miller and Kawhi a couple years ago in the playoffs. But I haven't seen anything like what Lillard has done this year and this is after having 30 foot series winning shots against the 2 seeded Nuggets a couple years ago and in many games since. I am not saying he is always clutch in every game at the end but that in big games or in big moments to win games, he is the best at it in the game..I can't really think of anyone close.

I understand recency bias and like regression when it comes to like NFL teams losing a ton of close games one year, so regression is expected the next (though it's been like 3-4 straight years for the Chargers).

But I do believe some players are better at play in big moments. Like I think Brady was better at it than Peyton Manning for example.

I mean, someone simply improving their 3pt shooting year over year, means they are becoming more clutch at those shots. Less hesitation, more confidence, learning how to shoot and move when defended, etc. Lillard strikes me as a guy that probably works on this.

The fear, the hype commentary and the cold blooded killer narrative with Kobe was always bigger than his actual clutch production. Granted he's got a highlight reel of spectacular clutch shots but over a 20 year career span and taking the majority of the team's attempts in the clutch, he's gonna accumulate some clutch shots.

Dame is different. Maybe it is the recency bias but a guy his size putting on clutch performances especially when the stakes are high is nothing short of amazing.
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#331 » by dremill24 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:07 pm

TouchPassDario wrote:I doubt Lillard *improved* so much this year from the previous seven. Recency bias and Sss bias are sooooooo tough to grapple with mentally


Your crusade to assist us mere mortals with these impossible challenges is much appreciated.
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#332 » by TouchPassDario » Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:24 pm

dremill24 wrote:
TouchPassDario wrote:I doubt Lillard *improved* so much this year from the previous seven. Recency bias and Sss bias are sooooooo tough to grapple with mentally


Your crusade to assist us mere mortals with these impossible challenges is much appreciated.


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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#333 » by SunsRback4Good » Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:44 pm

TouchPassDario wrote:
dremill24 wrote:
TouchPassDario wrote:I doubt Lillard *improved* so much this year from the previous seven. Recency bias and Sss bias are sooooooo tough to grapple with mentally


Your crusade to assist us mere mortals with these impossible challenges is much appreciated.


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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#335 » by wheezy » Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:53 pm

TouchPassDario wrote:He has been UNUSUALLY clutch this year. Regression is the expectation.

It would only be the expectation over a long enough sample, and there's no telling he'll reach that. Any truly random sample is going to go on runs at some point, and there's no certainty in saying he can't keep this up for a while.
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#336 » by denial » Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:07 pm

Jdiddy701 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
denial wrote:
Part of leadership is holding others accountable. None of us know the play of if bridges was supposed to stay or cut. Stop acting like you do. It is 50/50 on booker or bridges and no one really knows except for them. But bridges seemed upset with himself and I bet he is the one who was out of place. He cut out of instinct and broke the play, I would bet.


It wasn't a play...we were trying to dribble the clock out. Someone probably should have ran over to Book when he gets trapped but no matter what Bridges did it was a bad pass.

Regardless, he shouldn't yell at him after. No matter what, that turnover was Book's fault. He makes passes like that all the time and to have the gall to act like it was someone else's fault is just a very very poor look.

Yeah, I don’t care who’s fault is it. The way Booker handled the situation after is what I have a problem with. He has to be better at it and be a better leader. Leadership is huge in basketball. Jared Dudley is still on a NBA roster because of it.

One of the biggest reasons why the Clippers aren’t the team they should be is because they lack leadership.


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Fair enough I guess we just disagree or interpret leadership differently. People yelling at people in competitive environments to make a point does not bother me, if the person being yelled at made a costly mistake.

When lebron yelled at jr it was interpreted opposite. Maybe not apples to apples but seems to me people just don’t like booker getting slightly emotional.
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#337 » by TouchPassDario » Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:08 pm

wheezy wrote:
TouchPassDario wrote:He has been UNUSUALLY clutch this year. Regression is the expectation.

It would only be the expectation over a long enough sample, and there's no telling he'll reach that. Any truly random sample is going to go on runs at some point, and there's no certainty in saying he can't keep this up for a while.


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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#338 » by RunDogGun » Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:33 pm

Mulhollanddrive wrote:My impression is that there's been less .5 played recently and its affecting open looks:

Last 5 games 3 point %
Saric 0
Paul 16
Payne 16
Bridges 26
Booker 29
Johnson 31
Crowder 31
Galloway 33

Interesting stats. It would seem we should be playing Galloway a bit more, and give him more shots. :dontknow:
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#339 » by ImNotMcDiSwear » Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:22 pm

A surprising lack of Miles Bridges talk in this thread. This really was the Battle of the Bridges - Mikal was our best player, Miles theirs. Gawd I would love to slot that guy into our starting 4 spot.
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Re: Game 45: The Battle of the Bridges: Phoenix Suns (30-14) @ Charlotte Hornets (23-21) l Sunday l 10:00am l FSNAZ 

Post#340 » by RunDogGun » Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:46 pm

ImNotMcDiSwear wrote:A surprising lack of Miles Bridges talk in this thread. This really was the Battle of the Bridges - Mikal was our best player, Miles theirs. Gawd I would love to slot that guy into our starting 4 spot.

Rozier had a good game for them too. I thought Craig had a good game for us and he played half the minutes Bridges did. I don't know how we lucked out getting him for cash. Now if we can find a big just like him. :o

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