2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation

[Biff]

People saying the Dubs aren't scary are dimwits. The Warriors are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. If Klay is even 80% of what he was, they're going to be damn near unstoppable just like they were before. They will shoot us off the floor in a 7 game series. They'd likely go small and Ayton will have to camp out on the perimeter or chase Draymond around, minimizing his defensive impact in the paint.

Also, Curry absolutely owns CP3.

Don't think anyone believes Dubs aren't scary. They have one of the top 5 players of all time, evidently still in his prime. They're 18-2 with Klay Thompson waiting in the wings. Surely they'll add a center off the waiver wire at some point to play situationally.

I'm very excited to see how Monty approaches this matchup. I would say we might hide our Plan A in anticipation of future matchups, but with the franchise record win streak on the line, I'm guessing we won't hold back. I'm guessing we put Mikal on Curry much of the time, with Booker on Wiggins and Paul on Poole, but you know everyone will get their turn guarding Curry, and I would expect to see Booker on him quite a bit as well.

Big question is how we handle the switch. Against nearly every other team we switch 1-5, but with Curry on the floor, that's just an invitation to get torched. Problem is, if you switch Ayton onto Curry or even Poole, then he has to choose between giving up the long ball or the rim, and either way we'll get wrecked. But how can we not switch? Not only is that the only way to eliminate open threes, but it's our damn identity. Expect to see a lot of Cam and Crowder patrolling the paint on drives when Ayton and McGee get stranded.

And then on offense, Dray and Looney will make keeping DA out of the paint their full time job. Crowder will get a lot of open 3FG attempts this game, I expect. If we slow things down, the Warriors could just blitz us and blow us out, and the upside to that approach is low since we won't be going on huge runs that way. OTOH, if we run, we're playing right into their hands and potentially running our own bigs off the court. Ayton's effort level is the X factor with this game. If he comes out and jogs around as he's done recently, I'm not sure we stand a chance. We need to see the full-speed, high energy version if we're going to win. You know Booker will get a shot up every time they don't plan Wiggins on him, as he'll light up Curry and Poole. The other X factor, then, will be Bridges, who will probably be guarded by Poole, and he needs to be able to take advantage of that matchup. If he scores 20, I think we win, but that assumes Cam Jo and Crowder match the Warriors' long ball and Cam Payne doesn't get eaten alive by that beast, Gary Payton II. (God I love that guy.)

Expect McGee to have a big game on offense. Just hope he's able to keep the Shaqtin moments to a minimum. With all the chaos we're bound to see, he'll be tempted to add to his lowlight reel. I also expect Shamet to ball out - but these guys playing well is just to keep us close to even. We ain't blowing these guys out.

This team - and how we play them in the playoffs - will be Ayton's biggest test. If he gets run off the floor and can't take advantage of his size against Looney and Dray, then I can't see how he gets his bag. This Warriors team will be hear next season, too, and the year after that. A lot of this is up to Monty and his staff - how can he use DA to our advantage rather than our detriment? If he can do that, we've got a better than even chance of beating this team. If not, we're in a shooting match with the GOAT.

I am PUMPED for this one.

Yeah, tonight we match up fine but after they get back Klay and Wiseman, we don't match up well with them. Wiseman isn't a stud but he's a decent big. We put Mikal on Bridges and Booker on Klay? They'll make Booker chase Klay around screens all night and that will definitely impact how much energy he has on offense. And I don't see Jae patrolling the paint since he's going to have to guard Wiggins on the perimeter. Ayton is really going to struggle against a lineup of Curry, Poole, Klay, Wiggins and Draymond. Very bad matchup for us. If Ayton could take advantage of their lack of size in the paint it might change things but he has zero go to moves that we can consistently count on. He is a better version of Capela and that just doesn't help us against the Warriors.

[King4Day]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/nba-finals-bucks-suns-covid-outbreak-giannis-antetokounmpo-1259277/amp/

Can't quite tell if this could have really affected the finals or not, but oh well. Would have been lame to win had Giannis been out due to being a Covid close contact. Still, even just getting one game without him would have been nice lol

That's pretty nuts!
So, if there was a game 7, there's a chance some players, Giannis included, could have missed it (due to contact tracing).

If the NBA did what it was supposed to do, it would have and should have prevented many Bucks from playing game 6. I would have been OK if they postponed games until teams were healthy again.
I believe Silver let this one slip under the rug on purpose though

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Yeah, tonight we match up fine but after they get back Klay and Wiseman, we don't match up well with them. Wiseman isn't a stud but he's a decent big. We put Mikal on Bridges and Booker on Klay? They'll make Booker chase Klay around screens all night and that will definitely impact how much energy he has on offense. And I don't see Jae patrolling the paint since he's going to have to guard Wiggins on the perimeter. Ayton is really going to struggle against a lineup of Curry, Poole, Klay, Wiggins and Draymond. Very bad matchup for us. If Ayton could take advantage of their lack of size in the paint it might change things but he has zero go to moves that we can consistently count on. He is a better version of Capela and that just doesn't help us against the Warriors.

I don't think they should play Wiseman against us. Ayton will eat him alive and playing him negates the advantage of their small-ball lineup.

I really don't know what to think of that 2021 death lineup you mention. We'll struggle defensively, but how can they switch anything with Ayton? Wiggins, Klay or Poole on Ayton? In this respect, Ayton is better than Capela. He's too big to just body him up down low with a smaller guy.

As I said, a super-interesting matchup. Really hope we see them in the WCF.

[Biff]

Yeah, tonight we match up fine but after they get back Klay and Wiseman, we don't match up well with them. Wiseman isn't a stud but he's a decent big. We put Mikal on Bridges and Booker on Klay? They'll make Booker chase Klay around screens all night and that will definitely impact how much energy he has on offense. And I don't see Jae patrolling the paint since he's going to have to guard Wiggins on the perimeter. Ayton is really going to struggle against a lineup of Curry, Poole, Klay, Wiggins and Draymond. Very bad matchup for us. If Ayton could take advantage of their lack of size in the paint it might change things but he has zero go to moves that we can consistently count on. He is a better version of Capela and that just doesn't help us against the Warriors.

I don't think they should play Wiseman against us. Ayton will eat him alive and playing him negates the advantage of their small-ball lineup.

I really don't know what to think of that 2021 death lineup you mention. We'll struggle defensively, but how can they switch anything with Ayton? Wiggins, Klay or Poole on Ayton? In this respect, Ayton is better than Capela. He's too big to just body him up down low with a smaller guy.

As I said, a super-interesting matchup. Really hope we see them in the WCF.

I said Ayton is better than Capela but the fact is he's not much more versatile on offense. Like Capela, he can't dribble or post up but he at least has a good mid range shot, which Capela does not have. But he's not versatile enough to punish the small ball Warriors lineup. If he had a post up game he could feast but he doesn't. Obviously them switching a small guy onto Ayton will hurt them sometimes but Ayton isn't good enough on offense to really make them pay for it or to force them to change.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

Yeah, tonight we match up fine but after they get back Klay and Wiseman, we don't match up well with them. Wiseman isn't a stud but he's a decent big. We put Mikal on Bridges and Booker on Klay? They'll make Booker chase Klay around screens all night and that will definitely impact how much energy he has on offense. And I don't see Jae patrolling the paint since he's going to have to guard Wiggins on the perimeter. Ayton is really going to struggle against a lineup of Curry, Poole, Klay, Wiggins and Draymond. Very bad matchup for us. If Ayton could take advantage of their lack of size in the paint it might change things but he has zero go to moves that we can consistently count on. He is a better version of Capela and that just doesn't help us against the Warriors.

I don't think they should play Wiseman against us. Ayton will eat him alive and playing him negates the advantage of their small-ball lineup.

I really don't know what to think of that 2021 death lineup you mention. We'll struggle defensively, but how can they switch anything with Ayton? Wiggins, Klay or Poole on Ayton? In this respect, Ayton is better than Capela. He's too big to just body him up down low with a smaller guy.

As I said, a super-interesting matchup. Really hope we see them in the WCF.

I said Ayton is better than Capela but the fact is he's not much more versatile on offense. Like Capela, he can't dribble or post up but he at least has a good mid range shot, which Capela does not have. But he's not versatile enough to punish the small ball Warriors lineup. If he had a post up game he could feast but he doesn't. Obviously them switching a small guy onto Ayton will hurt them sometimes but Ayton isn't good enough on offense to really make them pay for it or to force them to change.

I guess I just disagree here and hope we get the chance to see. Poole or Wiggins on Ayton is a dunk or a 4-foot jump hook. Don't need much of a post-up game to convert that. And like I said, his bulk is what separates him from Capela in that regard - there's no keeping him away from the rim if the switch a guy that size onto him.

Also, FWIW, Ayton's turnaround J is straight nasty. He just doesn't get the opportunity to use it very often, as even if he shoots it at a higher percentage than Book, you'd rather have Book shoot with Ayton there for the offensive rebound. It really isn't about Ayton's post game, more about the way the game is played today.

I'm not trying to say DA's been amazing during this run - McGee has outplayed him most nights - but I think your criticism goes too far. As I said, I hope we find out what happens if they switch a small onto him. They'll surely double him if he's 8 feet from the rim, but if he's closer than that, that's a bucket. The question is whether our defense can recover with Ayton racing those guards back the other way from under the rim.

[Biff]

I don't think they should play Wiseman against us. Ayton will eat him alive and playing him negates the advantage of their small-ball lineup.

I really don't know what to think of that 2021 death lineup you mention. We'll struggle defensively, but how can they switch anything with Ayton? Wiggins, Klay or Poole on Ayton? In this respect, Ayton is better than Capela. He's too big to just body him up down low with a smaller guy.

As I said, a super-interesting matchup. Really hope we see them in the WCF.

I said Ayton is better than Capela but the fact is he's not much more versatile on offense. Like Capela, he can't dribble or post up but he at least has a good mid range shot, which Capela does not have. But he's not versatile enough to punish the small ball Warriors lineup. If he had a post up game he could feast but he doesn't. Obviously them switching a small guy onto Ayton will hurt them sometimes but Ayton isn't good enough on offense to really make them pay for it or to force them to change.

I guess I just disagree here and hope we get the chance to see. Poole or Wiggins on Ayton is a dunk or a 4-foot jump hook. Don't need much of a post-up game to convert that. And like I said, his bulk is what separates him from Capela in that regard - there's no keeping him away from the rim if the switch a guy that size onto him.

Also, FWIW, Ayton's turnaround J is straight nasty. He just doesn't get the opportunity to use it very often, as even if he shoots it at a higher percentage than Book, you'd rather have Book shoot with Ayton there for the offensive rebound. It really isn't about Ayton's post game, more about the way the game is played today.

I'm not trying to say DA's been amazing during this run - McGee has outplayed him most nights - but I think your criticism goes too far. As I said, I hope we find out what happens if they switch a small onto him. They'll surely double him if he's 8 feet from the rim, but if he's closer than that, that's a bucket. The question is whether our defense can recover with Ayton racing those guards back the other way from under the rim.

I just don't see it. The Warriors right now have the best defense in the NBA. Even if they go small, I don't see Ayton punishing them. Sure he'll get some points but he's just not a dominant offensive player. If he was, we'd play that small ball lineup off the court but I see their small lineup as more of a problem for us than the other way around. Ayton is quick enough for us to keep him on the floor but I don't see him as some massive advantage in that scenario. He's much more effective when we play teams like the Nuggets, where his defense can slow down Jokic enough that we have the advantage.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Elias Sports Bureau (@EliasSports) Tweeted:
The @Suns are 15–0 in November. Six teams in #NBA history went 16–0 or better in a calendar month:

-Hawks in Jan. 2015 (17–0)
-Warriors in Nov. 2015 (16)
-Spurs in Mar. 2014 (16)
-Clippers in Dec. 2012 (16)
-Spurs in Mar. 1996 (16)
-Lakers in Dec. 1971 (16) https://t.co/9AmNlujQza

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[bwgood77]

Yeah, tonight we match up fine but after they get back Klay and Wiseman, we don't match up well with them. Wiseman isn't a stud but he's a decent big. We put Mikal on Bridges and Booker on Klay? They'll make Booker chase Klay around screens all night and that will definitely impact how much energy he has on offense. And I don't see Jae patrolling the paint since he's going to have to guard Wiggins on the perimeter. Ayton is really going to struggle against a lineup of Curry, Poole, Klay, Wiggins and Draymond. Very bad matchup for us. If Ayton could take advantage of their lack of size in the paint it might change things but he has zero go to moves that we can consistently count on. He is a better version of Capela and that just doesn't help us against the Warriors.

I don't think they should play Wiseman against us. Ayton will eat him alive and playing him negates the advantage of their small-ball lineup.

I really don't know what to think of that 2021 death lineup you mention. We'll struggle defensively, but how can they switch anything with Ayton? Wiggins, Klay or Poole on Ayton? In this respect, Ayton is better than Capela. He's too big to just body him up down low with a smaller guy.

As I said, a super-interesting matchup. Really hope we see them in the WCF.

Yes, I much prefer Ayton one on one against most guys his size, even a guy like Towns, than going against Draymond Green and Looney in the middle. They are studs defensively and Draymond is thick, low C of gravity DPOY. He has a 7'1 wingspan and Looney a 7'4 one.

I don't think people should be fooled into thinking that's a lack of size or some kind of defense to be taken advantage of. Their #1 defense isn't because of their guards.

[lilfishi22]

I said Ayton is better than Capela but the fact is he's not much more versatile on offense. Like Capela, he can't dribble or post up but he at least has a good mid range shot, which Capela does not have. But he's not versatile enough to punish the small ball Warriors lineup. If he had a post up game he could feast but he doesn't. Obviously them switching a small guy onto Ayton will hurt them sometimes but Ayton isn't good enough on offense to really make them pay for it or to force them to change.

I guess I just disagree here and hope we get the chance to see. Poole or Wiggins on Ayton is a dunk or a 4-foot jump hook. Don't need much of a post-up game to convert that. And like I said, his bulk is what separates him from Capela in that regard - there's no keeping him away from the rim if the switch a guy that size onto him.

Also, FWIW, Ayton's turnaround J is straight nasty. He just doesn't get the opportunity to use it very often, as even if he shoots it at a higher percentage than Book, you'd rather have Book shoot with Ayton there for the offensive rebound. It really isn't about Ayton's post game, more about the way the game is played today.

I'm not trying to say DA's been amazing during this run - McGee has outplayed him most nights - but I think your criticism goes too far. As I said, I hope we find out what happens if they switch a small onto him. They'll surely double him if he's 8 feet from the rim, but if he's closer than that, that's a bucket. The question is whether our defense can recover with Ayton racing those guards back the other way from under the rim.

I just don't see it. The Warriors right now have the best defense in the NBA. Even if they go small, I don't see Ayton punishing them. Sure he'll get some points but he's just not a dominant offensive player. If he was, we'd play that small ball lineup off the court but I see their small lineup as more of a problem for us than the other way around. Ayton is quick enough for us to keep him on the floor but I don't see him as some massive advantage in that scenario. He's much more effective when we play teams like the Nuggets, where his defense can slow down Jokic enough that we have the advantage.

Ayton would have to be absolutely locked in like in the playoffs for him to do damage. Far too often he randomly struggles putting the ball in the hoop when a smaller player who has no business defending him defends him in the post. I don't know how they'll use him for this game but we'll need to involve him early to add that interior dimension to our game. I also would expect some Draymond defending Ayton and he's playing at a DPOY level this season so he's for sure going to be cause Ayton problems. Draymond is one of the best defensive disruptors in the league so we'll need to be on point with our passing and running of our sets and by that I mean, we need to run things early and with purpose.

[lilfishi22]

Yeah, tonight we match up fine but after they get back Klay and Wiseman, we don't match up well with them. Wiseman isn't a stud but he's a decent big. We put Mikal on Bridges and Booker on Klay? They'll make Booker chase Klay around screens all night and that will definitely impact how much energy he has on offense. And I don't see Jae patrolling the paint since he's going to have to guard Wiggins on the perimeter. Ayton is really going to struggle against a lineup of Curry, Poole, Klay, Wiggins and Draymond. Very bad matchup for us. If Ayton could take advantage of their lack of size in the paint it might change things but he has zero go to moves that we can consistently count on. He is a better version of Capela and that just doesn't help us against the Warriors.

I don't think they should play Wiseman against us. Ayton will eat him alive and playing him negates the advantage of their small-ball lineup.

I really don't know what to think of that 2021 death lineup you mention. We'll struggle defensively, but how can they switch anything with Ayton? Wiggins, Klay or Poole on Ayton? In this respect, Ayton is better than Capela. He's too big to just body him up down low with a smaller guy.

As I said, a super-interesting matchup. Really hope we see them in the WCF.

Yes, I much prefer Ayton one on one against most guys his size, even a guy like Towns, than going against Draymond Green and Looney in the middle. They are studs defensively and Draymond is thick, low C of gravity DPOY. He has a 7'1 wingspan and Looney a 7'4 one.

I don't think people should be fooled into thinking that's a lack of size or some kind of defense to be taken advantage of. Their #1 defense isn't because of their guards.

As much as the media wants to play that up to get Steph a few DPOY votes and an all-Defensive selection lol

[lilfishi22]

What would the Rockets want for Christian Wood?

Jalen/Nader + Crowder works but I assume we'll need to incentives them some more.

[Saberestar]

What would the Rockets want for Christian Wood?

Jalen/Nader + Crowder works but I assume we'll need to incentives them some more.

Not a good fit at all. I would pass.

[lilfishi22]

What would the Rockets want for Christian Wood?

Jalen/Nader + Crowder works but I assume we'll need to incentives them some more.

Not a good fit at all. I would pass.

Watch on YouTube

I think he does a lot of what Crowder does but with the added benefit of having more length, athleticism and driving ability as opposed to Crowder's almost pure shooting.

[bwgood77]

I don't think they should play Wiseman against us. Ayton will eat him alive and playing him negates the advantage of their small-ball lineup.

I really don't know what to think of that 2021 death lineup you mention. We'll struggle defensively, but how can they switch anything with Ayton? Wiggins, Klay or Poole on Ayton? In this respect, Ayton is better than Capela. He's too big to just body him up down low with a smaller guy.

As I said, a super-interesting matchup. Really hope we see them in the WCF.

Yes, I much prefer Ayton one on one against most guys his size, even a guy like Towns, than going against Draymond Green and Looney in the middle. They are studs defensively and Draymond is thick, low C of gravity DPOY. He has a 7'1 wingspan and Looney a 7'4 one.

I don't think people should be fooled into thinking that's a lack of size or some kind of defense to be taken advantage of. Their #1 defense isn't because of their guards.

As much as the media wants to play that up to get Steph a few DPOY votes and an all-Defensive selection lol

To be fair he has been really good....he is right behind Looney and Green on b-ref's DRTG, while Poole and Wiggins are quite a bit lower. On nba.com he is even slightly ahead of them. But it all starts with them.

[bwgood77]

What would the Rockets want for Christian Wood?

Jalen/Nader + Crowder works but I assume we'll need to incentives them some more.

Not a good fit at all. I would pass.

Watch on YouTube

I think he does a lot of what Crowder does but with the added benefit of having more length, athleticism and driving ability as opposed to Crowder's almost pure shooting.

Are they looking to move Wood? Why would they want Crowder?

[lilfishi22]

Yes, I much prefer Ayton one on one against most guys his size, even a guy like Towns, than going against Draymond Green and Looney in the middle. They are studs defensively and Draymond is thick, low C of gravity DPOY. He has a 7'1 wingspan and Looney a 7'4 one.

I don't think people should be fooled into thinking that's a lack of size or some kind of defense to be taken advantage of. Their #1 defense isn't because of their guards.

As much as the media wants to play that up to get Steph a few DPOY votes and an all-Defensive selection lol

To be fair he has been really good....he is right behind Looney and Green on b-ref's DRTG, while Poole and Wiggins are quite a bit lower. On nba.com he is even slightly ahead of them. But it all starts with them.

I think he's playing his best defense of his career and he's always been solid at his position but hearing some DPOY votes going his way is insane when he's got Looney and Green on the same team.

[lilfishi22]

Not a good fit at all. I would pass.

Watch on YouTube

I think he does a lot of what Crowder does but with the added benefit of having more length, athleticism and driving ability as opposed to Crowder's almost pure shooting.

Are they looking to move Wood? Why would they want Crowder?

KOC talks about the significant interest the Rockets are expecting for Wood in the latest Mismatch podcast.

I don't know if they want Crowder but he's a bit cheaper than Wood and they could ditch Smith/Nader at the end of the season. Just seeing what I can throw into the trade machine. If they don't want him then I don't really want to throw anything else to get a deal done.

[bwgood77]

Watch on YouTube

I think he does a lot of what Crowder does but with the added benefit of having more length, athleticism and driving ability as opposed to Crowder's almost pure shooting.

Are they looking to move Wood? Why would they want Crowder?

KOC talks about the significant interest the Rockets are expecting for Wood in the latest Mismatch podcast.

I don't know if they want Crowder but he's a bit cheaper than Wood and they could ditch Smith/Nader at the end of the season. Just seeing what I can throw into the trade machine. If they don't want him then I don't really want to throw anything else to get a deal done.

If they trade a guy like Wood they will want a 1st and/or a decent looking prospect for him. They would be trading him to get assets for their rebuild, not for an older/slightly cheaper player and filler.

[Ghost of Kleine]

What would the Rockets want for Christian Wood?

Jalen/Nader + Crowder works but I assume we'll need to incentives them some more.

A while back on the trade board it was mentioned somewhere that they would look for a first and young prospect or TPE and/ or expirings I think? Not sure how they're estimating his value now if they look to tank. I'd have to think that a first and expiring contract for salary ballast would do it.

[lilfishi22]

Depends how much they want to offload him and what teams are willing to offer. I like Wood and I do think he's has value with us going forward, especially when it comes to a pairing with Ayton. Both tall, long, switchable on D.