The iconic "Win Now," "High Risk, High Reward" trade. If it works out, the Suns have a title shot for the next two or three years (the long window because of the reduced requirements on Shaq).
If it works, they win a title; if it fails, then Phoenix will always wonder if they could have kept Marion and finally gotten over the hump.
The first thing to dispel is the notion that the running game will be unduly affected; there are always one or two guys who don't make it up and down the floor at speed and that's fine. Shaq's been rebounding just fine in Phoenix (better than in Miami so far) and he's been drawing fouls. He's struggled to finish and is still an abysmal free throw shooter but that's to be expected as he adjusts to the new style and pace, the new sets, being farther out from the basket for pick-and-rolls, etc. He's notably shooting a ridiculously low FT% even for himself (27.3% over the first three games) and that'll come up at least 15% or so... which is still terrible but he'll be better than he has been thus far. And it's worth noting that while he's shooting 45.5% over his first three games, he was still shooting 58.1% in Miami earlier this season, so you can expect about a 13% hike in his FG% on the balance of the season. Once that starts to happen, well, that'll bring him up to being a double-digit scorer (you can expect about 13, 14 ppg from him once he settles in, I expect) and things will get going for the Suns a bit better. I suspect they'll look to him in the post a bit more.
They lost a good game to the Lakers, though Raja Bell was notably useless and Shaq was on Gasol, which was a recipe for disaster because Shaq's simply not quick enough to guard a PF like Gasol (even if he's playing the 5 in stretches). He got a hand up on a lot of those jumpers but that's not enough, you need to smother him and if he did that, Gasol would be by him for higher-percentage layups and dunks all night, and possibly fouls. So that was tough. Bell's inadequacy didn't help and Diaw looked sort of disinterested as usual. He had 14 boards in 26 minutes against Boston and they won, so I don't really need to say anything else, even if he was miserable from the floor and the line. Detroit wasn't entirely his fault; Nash couldn't guard Billups, Hill laid an egg on offense, Diaw was useless and Amare got absolutely TORCHED by Rasheed Wallace. Also, Amare didn't rebound worth a damn, he had 3 boards in almost 36 minutes, leading Detroit to exploit a +19 rebounding advantage en route to the blow-out.
What else to say? Of COURSE the Suns looked bad; they played the best team in the West and the two best teams in the East in the immediate aftermath of a huge deal that notably altered their game. They had to incorporate a new player right away and Shaq hasn't even really played in two months besides these three games.
We'll take it as it comes; I don't want to defend the trade too hard because it's really a sink-or-swim deal; if they don't win the title, it wasn't worth it, so this deal has a very clear 2.5 season evaluation period. If the Suns don't win it this year or next year, they aren't going to win it period, though, so maybe 1.5 seasons is more accurate.
The key things are what Shaq brings in the halfcourt, which is of relevance to playoff basketball, and how he affects Amare Stoudemire. Amare is averaging 32 ppg since Shaq started playing with the Suns, and 11 FTA/g in that same span. He's been thoroughly dominant on offense (and he's still shooting almost 49% while doing so, though this is a marked decrease in FG% from before). In the halfcourt, Shaq still drags two defenders to him when he's in the post and he still causes damage in single coverage that warrants this (see the second half of the Lakers/Suns game). This frees up a LOT of space in which Amare can maneuver, so when he gets the ball cutting across the key in the high post, he has a lane right to the basket and it's almost a guaranteed foul if one of Shaq's defenders comes off him to try and contest Amare going hard to the rim. So that'll be valuable to the Suns in halfcourt sets during playoff basketball and we'll see how valuable Shaq is against someone like Duncan not too long from now when the Suns play the Spurs.
And that's about that; if the Suns exit the West, they will likely win the title because I don't think Detroit will make it past Cleveland and Detroit is the only team that can really challenge them because they can exploit Nash and Stoudemire defensively.
Phoenix can deal with Dallas by making Kidd a scorer and trying to keep either Dirk or Josh Howard out of it, make them run the offense through Stackhouse as much as possible. Harris won't be there to pester Nash and there's no way Kidd is going to stop him. More to the point, as much as Dirk will be a difficult defensive check, he isn't coming to come close to touching Amare and Shaq will cause the Mavs problems simply by being present, as he did in the '06 Finals, facilitating other scorers by exploiting his defensive draw and acting as a mirage and passing hub.
In my opinion, the Suns really have two teams to beat: San Antonio and (like everyone else) the Lakers. No one else is really worth considering. The Suns need to get their offense together and sort out how they are going to play. It should be interesting but there are no guarantees. I like the deal because they finally have some size inside and they are able to play a bit of a power post game from time to time to shift the look they give defenses. Theoretically, between Nash and all the secondary shooters on the team (and the lure of dealing with Amare on offense), the Suns should be able to exploit Shaq's presence on their team and take a legit shot at the title. They're really no worse than they were with Marion and they have the potential to be better, so I view this as a good risk, especially given Nash's age and the looming prospect of having to re-sign Marion for much more than he was worth with no tangible improvement in the team from year to year during his time with Nash.
Refreshing. I'm sure all of us have thought these things at a certain point, I just have been getting sick of every sports writer counting the Suns out now after three games against the three hottest teams in the NBA.
