RealGM

If you read all the different threads, you see the following ideas:
1. We need to bench Hill and start Giricek for more 3s.
2. Raja's been struggling with his shot, we should start Barbosa.
3. Maybe we should start Diaw with Amare and bring Shaq off the bench.
4. We need to spread the floor more in the middle of the game and get more shooters out there.
5. And so forth....

Everyone needs to take a step back and stop taking all these issues from the Mike D'Antoni school of problem solving. The first thing we need is some data:

-Since Shaq has played, we are shooting around ~49% on FGs per game and shot 41% from 3 (~7 a game made).

-Individual 3 Point %s since Shaq:
Barbosa: 46%, Bell: 40.4%, Nash: 40%, Diaw: 37.5%, Hill: 36.3%

-Prior to Shaq:
Allowed 45.3% FG shooting and had 13.1 turnovers per game

-Since we've added Shaq:
Allowed 50.5% FG shooting and had 16.8 turnovers per game

Now, after digesting all this data. Are any of the above 1-4 measures going to solve what is hurting this team? Adding more shooters/going small is not the answer here.

The answer is finding a way to put a dent into our opponents shooting almost 51% from the floor - with much of the damage coming from the backcourt. If we want to solve the problem, here's a good start:

1. We need to stop playing a backcourt of Nash-Bell, Nash-Barbs or Bell-Barbs for 90+% of the game. Maybe even start Giricek over Bell and move raja back to the bench for a few games. Nash and Barbosa should be on the floor together as little as possible (esp in the 4th) and only when one of the top scoring opposing players are on the bench.

2. Play DJ in the 2nd and/or 3rd quarters for starters (10-15 MPG) when the opposing top scorer is on the floor. Pair him with either Barbs or Nash, as well as Grant Hill. Having a lineup of DJ and Hill should allow us to pressure the opposing guards and have less stress on Amare/Shaq or Nash/Barbs to help defend.

3. Give Skinner 5-10 of Diaw's minutes. Mike still has this longing to have a "running lineup" since the Shaq deal to keep his system alive. Well, here's the truth - without Shawn we don't have the defenders to go small for extended periods. It sucks, but that's life. Throwing out lineups of Nash, Barbs, Hill/Bell, Amare and Diaw is like rolling out the red carpet to opposing guards. That lineup has 4 bad defenders and four guys that love to turn it over of late. Turnovers+bad wing/transition defense = Bye bye lead (or hello deeper hole). We can throw out Nash/Barbs, DJ, Hill, Amare, Skinner and have a tough group to get easy shots against while some starters sit. Diaw can play the 3-4 for Amare and Hill, but having Shaq or Skinner out there can help offset his lazy D.

Then end result is that Giricek, DJ and Skinner should see more minutes while Barbosa, Bell and Diaw see less. This will help our defense and allow us to have middle quarters like 22-20 or 26-23 instead of 25-33. Now, it will mean that we score a little less (cue the shocked gasp), but I'd rather win games 109-103 than lost them 126-120.

Giri is not going to improve the defense by starting over Raja. Raja is struggling because of who he is playing defense on. It isn't about Raja not putting enough effort it is about Raja not having the physical attributes to cover tall or strong SF or small quick PGs. He can still d-up most SGs and the shorter, weaker SFs.

I agree that DJ needs more playing time but I also think we overrate him a little. I think MD wants to try Giri first because Giri seems like a decent defender.

As for point three, it is a little flawed. If you rotate over to try to block a shot, any decent guard can just dump it off to the guy you just left. Once they penetrate it becomes harder to defend. That would work for guards that lack passing ability but CP3 or Williams would kill us if we tried to rotate off of the big.

"but I'd rather win games 109-103 than lost them 126-120." That is a flawed argument. It could easily be would you want to lose 126-120 or lose 109-103.

I think it is obvious that we will probably see more zone defense. I know it sounds sad but that might be the only solution to stop opposing guards.

You through out the opponent FG% before in after but what about second chance points. Second chance points lower your FG% but it doesn't change the amount of points scored.

Arles...totally agree, great post mate.

DJ and Skinner clearly need time. They (and Hill+Bell to some extent) are the only guys who seem to play a lick of defense...problem is neither one can pass or shoot the 3 with much aplomb, so of course DA won't play them.

I don't see how hard it is to play a rotation like:

Shaq 25 Amare 9 Skinner 5 Diaw 4
Amare 24 Diaw 18 Skinner 6
Hill 26 Diaw 8 Giricek 8 Bell 6
Bell 24 Barbosa 18 Giricek 2 Hill 2
Nash 30 Barbosa 9 DJ 9

Johnson mops up leftovers.

So,
Shaq 28
Amare 33
Hill 28
Bell 30
Nash 30
----
Barbosa 27
Diaw 30
Giricek 10
Skinner 11
DJ 9

Can't be that hard, give or take foul trouble, situational changes, hot streaks, injuries etc etc to keep that averaged out

Haha nice job on the lineup Tastic, we might disagree on Amare, but at least we have about the same minute allotments!

TASTIC wrote:Arles...totally agree, great post mate.

DJ and Skinner clearly need time. They (and Hill+Bell to some extent) are the only guys who seem to play a lick of defense...problem is neither one can pass or shoot the 3 with much aplomb, so of course DA won't play them.

I don't see how hard it is to play a rotation like:

Shaq 25 Amare 9 Skinner 5 Diaw 4
Amare 24 Diaw 18 Skinner 6
Hill 26 Diaw 8 Giricek 8 Bell 6
Bell 24 Barbosa 18 Giricek 2 Hill 2
Nash 30 Barbosa 9 DJ 9

Johnson mops up leftovers.

So,
Shaq 28
Amare 33
Hill 28
Bell 30
Nash 30
----
Barbosa 27
Diaw 30
Giricek 10
Skinner 11
DJ 9

Can't be that hard, give or take foul trouble, situational changes, hot streaks, injuries etc etc to keep that averaged out

Sarlonus wrote:Giri is not going to improve the defense by starting over Raja. Raja is struggling because of who he is playing defense on. It isn't about Raja not putting enough effort it is about Raja not having the physical attributes to cover tall or strong SF or small quick PGs. He can still d-up most SGs and the shorter, weaker SFs.

Raja's been getting lit up for going on 2 months. I don't think Giri is better, but I think Raja needs to change things up. Maybe going from 43 minutes as a starter to 30-35 as a bench guy would refocus him on playing D.

I agree that DJ needs more playing time but I also think we overrate him a little. I think MD wants to try Giri first because Giri seems like a decent defender.

My point is why not play them both at the expense of some of the 100+ minutes given on a nightly basis to Bell, Diaw and Barbosa? There's no reason that trio should get more than 90 MPG, which leaves some minutes for both DJ and Giri - esp if you cut down Nash's minutes a bit as well.

As for point three, it is a little flawed. If you rotate over to try to block a shot, any decent guard can just dump it off to the guy you just left. Once they penetrate it becomes harder to defend. That would work for guards that lack passing ability but CP3 or Williams would kill us if we tried to rotate off of the big.

No, the point of item 3 was that playing Nash, Barbs, Amare and Diaw on the court at the same time is defensive suicide. Swapping Diaw with Skinner means that Amare doesn't have to guard the top scoring post player. Swapping Barbs with DJ or Giri means that we have atleast one good perimeter defender as well. The point here isn't to have a "perfect defensive lineup" all game without flaws. It's to have a rotation that does not leave a woeful defensive lineup (Nash, Barbs, Amare, Diaw) out there together for an extended period of time.

"but I'd rather win games 109-103 than lost them 126-120." That is a flawed argument. It could easily be would you want to lose 126-120 or lose 109-103.

Then let's try and lose 109-103. We need to stop with this fairy tale that we can run like we did before when Shaq is out of the lineup. We may run, but our opponents run more.

I think it is obvious that we will probably see more zone defense. I know it sounds sad but that might be the only solution to stop opposing guards.

I think a zone is a good idea, but you still need defenders with some agility to close out shooters. And, IMO, DJ would be one of the better at that.

You through out the opponent FG% before in after but what about second chance points. Second chance points lower your FG% but it doesn't change the amount of points scored.

You're right, we went from allowing 14 offensive rebounds a game to 9. But, I think allowing opponents to shoot at a 5% higher clip means that there are 5-6 less chances a night for rebounds. Still, the addition of Shaq has helped here no doubt.

But, let's look at it this way. Prior to the deal we scored 110 and allowed 104. Now, we are scoring 107.7 and allowing 113.3. So, I am willing to sacrifice a little bit of offensive skill to bring in guys like DJ, Skinner and even Giri to help on the perimeter D. Plus, if we start playing better defense, we will be able to fast break more from the missed shots/turnovers. And, that will make everyone a better offensive player.

I think you need to spread your 7 man rotation to 10 man. It is absurd that you expect low turnovers and high level of defense with winded out players.

I agree with all of your assesments. It seems like we keep hitting a wall in our offensive and defensively.The Suns play good for 1 1/2 quarters and then we just hit a wall and it seems like we just never can recover. A lot of it has to do with fatigue and not using our bench. DJ is a very good defender but offensively he is a huge liability. There have been a couple of time where he is wide open and he still shoots an air ball.

The person I would like to see for about 8-10 minutes a game is Linton Johnson. He is defitnatly a better option offensively but defensively he also bring the same intensity and effort as DJ. Linton can guard PG to SF, he is long athletic and a good rebounder. Bring in Skinner and Linton for the last 2 minutes of the 1st quarter and the first 2 minutes of the 2dn quarter. Thats 4 minutes that Steve and Shaq don't play. Then you bring Linton and Skinner for the last 3 minutes of the 3rd and the first minutes of the fourth.

You paired them up with Leandro, Boris and Amare for those minutes. Then you take out Linton and bring in Hill and yu would have a tall line up of Skinner,Amare,Boris.Hill and Barbosa. Two passers with 2 finishers and a hustler. Then in the 8 minute mark of the fourth quarter you bring in Shaq and Raja then you take out Skinner and Boris. A minute later you take out Barbosa and bring in Steve.

I know that we all know that we need to improve in some areas but there are 3 areas that we need to improve in order for us to make a run.

1) Our turnovers.
2) opposing Shooting percentage.( our wing defenders)
3) DEFENSE!

If we can bring our turnovers by 8-10 we are going to have a much better chance in winning games.

If we can contest shots and bring the percentage down by 8-10% we are going to have a better shot in winning a title.

If we can play defense for a longer period of time we are defitnatly going to be a contender in this playoffs. I think that if we somehow can pass the Jazz record wise, we would have the 4th seed and we would play either the JAZZ or the Rockets. In the second round we would play the LAKERS or the Warriors. hmmmm.

Mike D'Antoni is the new George Clooney... too sexy to fight against him. rawr!

I guess I like the one with the trophy. Hopefully we will see that picture in june, too.