statistical chances of reaching the playoffs

schnakenpopanz · Post #1 » by **schnakenpopanz** » Mon Mar 2, 2009 3:41 am

for anyone who is familliar with maths this is a way better method than the Hollinger Method on ESPN
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NBA/West ... /Suns.html
this site gets updated nightly so our chances oncreased by beating the lakers, and each loss of our rivals comes into th statistical likelihood of reaching the playoffs.
need a little brainstorming on our schedule at the end. wee need to finish minimum 15-8 to reach the playoffs on a high rating. so i treid to predict the games we MUST win and we may loose.

@magic
@heat (Must W)
@rockets (Must W)
@spurs
mavs (Must W)
cavs
thunder (Must W)
@warriors (Must W)
sixers (Must W)
wizards (Must W)
nuggets
jazz (Must W)
@blazers
@jazz
@kings (Must W)
rockets (Must W)
kings (Must W)
@mavs
@hornets
@grizzlies (Must W)
@wolves (Must W)
grizzlies (Must W)
warriors (Must W)

i know in the end it comes to the performance on the floor, but if we can get it together an win the games we MUST win, there is a good chance for us to reach the play offs.

DaDragicShow · Post #2 » by **DaDragicShow** » Mon Mar 2, 2009 4:15 am

15-8 sounds reasonable.

JohnVancouver · Post #3 » by **JohnVancouver** » Mon Mar 2, 2009 5:26 am

arizonaplaya85 wrote:15-8 sounds reasonable.

I think we'll do better than that by a couple of games

hitachi7 · Post #4 » by **hitachi7** » Mon Mar 2, 2009 6:05 am

Nuggets at home should be easier than Rockets on the road

jazzy_jeff · Post #5 » by **jazzy_jeff** » Mon Mar 2, 2009 6:44 am

As good as this team is playing, someone in front of them has to drop off a bit. And that just doesn't seem to be happening. Every night, we get absolutely no help on the out-of-town scoreboard. And again, tonight, Utah, NO and Dallas all win.

DaDragicShow · Post #6 » by **DaDragicShow** » Mon Mar 2, 2009 9:28 am

Yeah it's going to be difficult since all the teams a bow us keep winning. The important games will come soon twice against jazz, mavs and rockets.

Phx4Life08 · Post #7 » by **Phx4Life08** » Tue Mar 3, 2009 5:41 am

Mavericks lost tonight to the Thunder Woo Hoo!

albasuna · Post #8 » by **albasuna** » Tue Mar 3, 2009 6:06 am

I dont think 49 wins will get the Suns in the playoffs, 52 seems like a good number though.

so 18-5 for the 8th seed/7th seed.

TXSun · Post #9 » by **TXSun** » Tue Mar 3, 2009 11:24 pm

this eastern road trip will be a good indication if we are getting in or not.

schnakenpopanz · Post #10 » by **schnakenpopanz** » Wed Mar 4, 2009 4:06 am

in my prediction we need about 15-16 more wins.
so the next 5 games will determine our chances.
if we win 3 or 4 our chances will increase.
we have about 7 losses to give and there are 23 games left.
key wins will be against utah, dallas twice, denver and houston.
we MUST beat dallas twice.

Mr. Sun · Post #11 » by **Mr. Sun** » Wed Mar 4, 2009 7:32 am

With 26 losses already we don't deserve to be in no playoffs.

sekira · Post #12 » by **sekira** » Thu Mar 5, 2009 1:05 am

We won't make the playoffs.

And what if we do anyways? We'd lose in the first round anyways.

schnakenpopanz · Post #13 » by **schnakenpopanz** » Thu Mar 5, 2009 1:08 am

nice to see the optimism round here

albasuna · Post #14 » by **albasuna** » Thu Mar 5, 2009 5:05 am

3 games back w/ 21 games to go.... gross

TXSun · Post #15 » by **TXSun** » Thu Mar 5, 2009 6:26 am

not looking good right now. we needed these 2 in Florida. oh well.

albasuna · Post #16 » by **albasuna** » Thu Mar 5, 2009 7:03 am

With 21 games left we need the Mavericks to lose 4 more games than we do. So realistically we could go 15-6, meaning we'd need the Mavericks to go 11-10. WOWOWOWOW.

Here's the mavericks upcoming schedule... games marked with an L are games against teams over .500
In total they have 14 games against those teams with 7 of them on the road. We basically need the Mavericks to just absolutely collapse our the Suns need to go on a 14 game winning streak.

MARCH
Thu 05 @ New Orleans L
Sat 07 vs Washington
Tue 10 @ Phoenix L
Wed 11 @ Portland L
Fri 13 @ Golden State
Sun 15 @ LA Lakers L
Tue 17 vs Detroit L
Thu 19 @ Atlanta L
Fri 20 @ Indiana
Wed 25 vs Golden State
Fri 27 vs Denver L
Sun 29 @ Cleveland L
Tue 31 @ Minnesota
APRIL
Wed 01 vs Miami L
Fri 03 @ Memphis
Sun 05 vs Phoenix L
Wed 08 vs Utah L
Fri 10 vs New Orleans L
Sun 12 @ New Orleans L
Mon 13 vs Minnesota
Wed 15 vs Houston L

psyclone1982 · Post #17 » by **psyclone1982** » Thu Mar 5, 2009 8:27 am

What happened since week 2, in week 2 we were a 100% chance of making the finals, seriously, how the hell can you give out a 100% to any team in week 2 lol.

hitachi7 · Post #18 » by **hitachi7** » Thu Mar 5, 2009 10:59 pm

^^ not true, if the Suns win the remaining 2 games vs the Mavs they automatically get the tiebreaker, and even if they split the games with the Mavs the Suns conf record is 20-14 with the being Mavs 20-17, so the Suns would still most likely get the tiebreaker unless it plays out oddly

So yea, they'd need to finish the season 3 games better than the Mavs, not hard if they win the last two remaining games with them, extremely hard otherwise

hitachi7 · Post #19 » by **hitachi7** » Thu Mar 5, 2009 11:09 pm

albasuna wrote:MARCH
Thu 05 @ New Orleans L
Sat 07 vs Washington W
Tue 10 @ Phoenix L
Wed 11 @ Portland L
Fri 13 @ Golden State L
Sun 15 @ LA Lakers L
Tue 17 vs Detroit W
Thu 19 @ Atlanta L
Fri 20 @ Indiana W
Wed 25 vs Golden State W
Fri 27 vs Denver W
Sun 29 @ Cleveland L
Tue 31 @ Minnesota W
APRIL
Wed 01 vs Miami W
Fri 03 @ Memphis W
Sun 05 vs Phoenix W
Wed 08 vs Utah L
Fri 10 vs New Orleans W
Sun 12 @ New Orleans L
Mon 13 vs Minnesota W
Wed 15 vs Houston W

@ Houston W
Sun 08 @ San Antonio L
Tue 10 vs Dallas W
Thu 12 vs Cleveland W
Sat 14 vs Oklahoma City W
Sun 15 @ Golden State L
Wed 18 vs Philadelphia W
Sat 21 vs Washington W
Mon 23 vs Denver W
Wed 25 vs Utah W
Thu 26 @ Portland L
Sat 28 @ Utah L
Sun 29 @ Sacramento W
Wed 01 vs Houston W
Fri 03 vs Sacramento W
Sun 05 @ Dallas L
Wed 08 @ New Orleans L
Fri 10 @ Memphis W
Sat 11 @ Minnesota W
Mon 13 vs Memphis W
Wed 15 vs Golden State W

here's a scenario that put's PHX in the playoffs, don't think it's terribly unrealistic

EDIT: Mavs' schedule is in the quoted, PHX's is out of it

Post #20 » by **Miklo** » Thu Mar 5, 2009 11:09 pm

albasuna wrote:With 21 games left we need the Mavericks to lose 4 more games than we do. So realistically we could go 15-6, meaning we'd need the Mavericks to go 11-10. WOWOWOWOW.

So in other words you mean statistically we have a zero percent chance of making the playoffs