The Amare Halo Effect

[asubennett]

I do not post much in this forum. This forum has a few very insightful, intelligent posters and a lot of youthful, overreactive flash mob members - therefore, by staying arms length away from the forum - I can read those comments that I like to read and ignore the rest without becoming overly involved, and I digress......

All topics involving Amare have dominated our forum for years now -

1) Microfracture
2) Suspension
3) Propensity for techs
4) Inability / Lack of Desire to play defense
5) A Beast with Shaq
6) Eye injury
7) Will never be himself
8) Max contract y or n
9) Trade him before he walks / Let him walk / he will never walk
10) One dimensional players never recieve a max deal

The purpose of this post is to discuss the Amare "Halo" effect. I think a fundamental part of having Amare Stoudemeire on your team is being lost.... Let us remember that having Amare forces teams to respect and pay extra attention to our pick and roll game. Without Amare, our offense does not work. Shooters can be cramped at the three point line - defenders can cheat against anyone else runing the pick and roll with Nash. Less Amare our team does not work as currently constructed and we have Nash under contract for 2 more years after this one.

If we trade Amare you folks may as well try to package Nash up with him. Please give Amare the respect he is due. Players like him do not come around very often. Rant Over.

[MaryvalesFinest]

If this was the 04-05 version of Amare pre injuries he would definately be worth the max. The problem is he's had so many injuries. I remember when he had the microfracture surgery they said they he probably would have to have another one in 5-6 years and that's almost here.

Not to mention management isn't going to pay him anyway. If they truly thought he was a max type player they wouldn't have been shopping him last year. I think the best thing to do is to thank Amare for what he's done for this franchise for almost a decade and try and trade him for the best deal possible and if not send Jay Rich along with him for expirings so the Suns have money to spend in free agency.

[Sun Scorched]

I honestly think Stoudemire is doing what he and his agent should be doing which is posturing and positioning him for a successful contract run at the end of either this season or next. To come out and say that you love PHX and are staying with the team gives the ownership an instant advantage.

If Sarver thought he could push Amare around contract-wise, he'd try to.

In my opinion, there is not a better pure scorer at the PF position in the league.

Finally, asking Stoudemire to score 25+ per game, pull down 10+ boards, block 2+ shots and provide lockdown defense would make him one of the best PFs of all time. And he's not even that old yet.

[Suns_RoadRunner]

I would hate to see Amare leave. I don' t think i could stand to see him in another jersey. He has improved defensively this year and seems to be progressing as the season goes on. If we let him go we're not likely to get another player of his caliber.

[KLEON]

asubennett thank you for explaining to these people that we need Amare but they wont understand. I've tried telling them that we need Amare but all they keep saying is TRADE HIM BEFORE HE WALKS HE'S NOT THE SAME AGAIN. I'm seriously starting to think that they are people who carry other nba teams and log into our forum and say these things because they want Amare on their team Or they are Suns fan who are just plain STUPID.

[Blackification]

asubennett thank you for explaining to these people that we need Amare but they wont understand. I've tried telling them that we need Amare but all they keep saying is TRADE HIM BEFORE HE WALKS HE'S NOT THE SAME AGAIN. I'm seriously starting to think that they are people who carry other nba teams and log into our forum and say these things because they want Amare on their team Or they are Suns fan who are just plain STUPID.

what do you mean these people??

[asubennett]

asubennett thank you for explaining to these people that we need Amare but they wont understand. I've tried telling them that we need Amare but all they keep saying is TRADE HIM BEFORE HE WALKS HE'S NOT THE SAME AGAIN. I'm seriously starting to think that they are people who carry other nba teams and log into our forum and say these things because they want Amare on their team Or they are Suns fan who are just plain STUPID.

I certainly understand why people may prefer not to pay Amare max dollars. I tend to be on of them that would prefer not to pay Amare max dollars.

However, if it comes to paying Amare max dollars or lose Amare - then I am for paying Amare max dollars. Who would you rather spend the $ on? A one year older Dwyane Wade who is also injury prone? Or Chris Bosch who is an even softer power forward than Amare?

MVF - I understand your injury concerns with Amare - the great thing about his microfracture is the lesion was the size of a dime and on a non weight barring part of the knee. Guys like Penny and Allan Houston had lesions the size of two quarters and they were on weight barring parts of the knee. Amare had "preventitive" microfracture surgery. Penny and Allan Houston had "corrrective" micro fracture surgery. Microfracture in general will need to be repeated in 5-6 years, but this is the corrective type of surgery that falls under that category.

My post is simple. Amare is a gift bestowed upon our franchise. I think we have all become a little jaded with him. It sort or reminds me of what happened to Charles Barkely in Philadelphia. We all know what happened to Philly with a nice veteran player like Jeff Hornacek, an up and comer like Tim Perry and Andrew Lang. I woudl hate to see Phoenix be a 2010 verssion of 1992 Philadelphia this season and trade awaty an amaazing PF talent for GS Warriors crap or Houston Rockets crap.

[JohnVancouver]

asubennett thank you for explaining to these people that we need Amare but they wont understand. I've tried telling them that we need Amare but all they keep saying is TRADE HIM BEFORE HE WALKS HE'S NOT THE SAME AGAIN. I'm seriously starting to think that they are people who carry other nba teams and log into our forum and say these things because they want Amare on their team Or they are Suns fan who are just plain STUPID.

When I consider trading Amar'e it's not because I think he's less than he was - that may be somewhat true in terms of sheer athleticism but anything he's lost he's more than made up for in developing a mid-range game that keeps defenders honest. Rebounding is up and his defense is better.
Sop trading Amar'e is simply recognizing that we have a very desirable talent that also precludes our rebuilding due to his cost.
If you can get other players and flexibility that help the team progress at the cost of giving up an All-Star PF, you have to look at it. First choice is keep Amar'e and improve the team. hard to do. 2nd choice is move Amar'e for solid players, picks and room in the budget. 3rd choice is get worse each year ...

[sunsblood]

asubennett, thank you for this post. amare stoudemire is a max player unless the suns can find a legitimate health issue that would scare them off. if you dont want to pay amare stoudemire big money, then who do you want to give your $$$ to? it's not like we would have sniffed an NBA FINALS or two had they paid JJ the small amount he was worth.

[lilfishi22]

I understand the point asubennet is making however, unless you are a club that is in extreme desperation to keep fans, sell tickets/merchandise, add a solid post threat *and* is a team with a ton of cap space (ie Knicks or Nets), then you cannot give Amare a MAX contract. For a long time, even after his MF surgeries, I had thought along the same line as asubennet, giving Amare max contract so he can stay since he's our only legitimate "hope" for the future, but a lot has changed since then.

I'll give a few reasons why we *can't* afford to sign Amare:

1. We just can't afford him, plain and simple. Unless we find a way to move JRich for expirings, we just have too much salary committed to a team that may or may not make playoffs after this season.
2. Because we can't afford to sign him, if we do give him max or close to max, we're still going to be in cost-cutting mode and signing Amare will cost us some young talent in order to cut salary.
3. The economic climate isn't like it used to be. If we take today's economic climate back a few years, there's no way guys like Redd, JRich, Rashard or Diaw would've got the kind of contracts they have now. Even a 22/10/2 Amare today will have teams thinking long and hard before they give him the contract he wants.
4. I left injury concern to no.4 but we all know about the concerns, whether legitimate or not.
5. Guys like Lou, Frye and Hill (if he decides to keep playing) are all coming off the books this season and should we decide to keep them, they are likely to command a collective salary of around 6-8mil alone.
6. It's only so long before our current SSOL team can rely on our vets to keep us competitive. If we resign Amare to a big contract, we're most likely going to begin next season with the exact same lineup, save for a Dudley promotion to the startling lineup. That is a lineup that is maybe good enough this season, but I doubt it'll hold up well next season when other teams get better and we just get a year older.
7. As with no.5, resigning Amare prevents us from getting better talent and I'm not even talking about Wade or Bosh or whatever, Amare's salary will likely even prevent us from using our MLE, just to get an upgrade in role player talent.
8. Probably the most important point, not sure why it's point 8, but after this failed run at a championship during the Nash era when Sarver paid tax, I don't see Sarver shelling out tax money again any time soon for a contender, unless the economy picks up dramatically.
9. Quite simply, unless Sarver is willing to pay for a contender, resigning Amare will just add another 100-120mil into our books the next 5 years without becoming the kind of championship threat we used to be. We're still going to win games, but unless we somehow find a gem in the draft or the DWade/Nash/Amare pipe dream comes true, we're still just going to be a fringe playoff contender and all the while paying Amare max money.

It's no longer a matter of, is Amare worth a max contract? It's a matter of, is Amare worth a max contract to us? The answer right now, simply, is no. For a relatively modest salary starting at 15 mil a year, maybe. But giving Amare what he wants for the sake of keeping him on our team? Definitely no.

[dantian]

Guys who talk about economics and how we can't afford Amare are blind about one thing: you will have to give the money to some people and Amare is a surer bet at this stage than the alternatives not in sight yet. Most teams will feel lucky to have a healthy Amare as one pillar of their franchise on a max or near max contract. It's much harder to have a team other than the 1992 76ers when you trade him now, as asubennett so succinctly pointed out.

[Frank Lee]

It seems unlikely that Sarver will pony up to get the pieces needed to be with Stat and Nash to be a true contender.

However, our budget will be set at the lux-tax.... what ever that will be. Estimate around 70 mill ???

We have 62 mill inked now if all parties with player options sign on at those levels. Basically Hill, Stat, and Frye. If both Stat and Frye were extended, I would imagine they'd take their assigned salaries for 10/11. Frye would be an idiot not to. Hill can stay or go...( I think we'd miss NFear more than Grant.. )

This means we have 10 guys and a payroll of 62 mill. We need to resign Lou ... say 3 yrs at 9 mill ? (2.5, 3.0 , 3.5) That is going to leave 4-5 mill for 2 more guys and we will have 20+ mill dropping off in 11/12 (Lopez, JRich, Hill, Clark...that and the end of the world... damn those Mayans)

There will be a couple of decent players (Vets likely) that would love to finish out their careers basking in the warmth of the desert, appreciating the cushy practices, and playing with dishmaster Nash and for easy going Gentry.



I think we can extend Amare, keep about everyone, and add perhaps a decent paint-man. A starter ??? who knows. I would not be surprised to see KT come back. But it is clear, the FO philosophy/focus right now is revenue... and they can keep butts in the seats with what they currently have. Why mess it up ? As the OP points out... we are a drastically different team w/o Stat, no matter who/what replaces him.

We should be grateful in a way.... it is not like we have the most talented GM and Owner. I am not so sure they could blueprint a blow up.

[Fo-Real]

asubennett thank you for explaining to these people that we need Amare but they wont understand. I've tried telling them that we need Amare but all they keep saying is TRADE HIM BEFORE HE WALKS HE'S NOT THE SAME AGAIN. I'm seriously starting to think that they are people who carry other nba teams and log into our forum and say these things because they want Amare on their team Or they are Suns fan who are just plain STUPID.

what do you mean these people??

WHAT DO YOU.... MEAN YOU PEOPLE!! (Tropic Thunder) for you people scratching thier heads.

[Suns_RoadRunner]

If Amare leaves then our biggest inside threat would be Lopez. If thats the case i don't know if i could watch this team. We would have to be completely reliant on threes.

[lilfishi22]

Guys who talk about economics and how we can't afford Amare are blind about one thing: you will have to give the money to some people and Amare is a surer bet at this stage than the alternatives not in sight yet. Most teams will feel lucky to have a healthy Amare as one pillar of their franchise on a max or near max contract. It's much harder to have a team other than the 1992 76ers when you trade him now, as asubennett so succinctly pointed out.

Amare is an absolute sure bet? A bet we are willing to sink 120mil into? Think about all the players in the league that are on max contract or near max contracts or even contracts they don't deserve, only a handful at best were sure bets that paid off. Of the list of "sure bets" that didn't pay off, there are many. Unless Amare is a guy who can carry us, he's not worth a max deal. If he can win us 20-25 games a season by himself, then he's in the league of players that *should* be worth a max deal.

Think of the players who are on max contracts (or near), only guys like Shaq, Kobe, Lebron, TD, Wade and Garnett could've carried a team single handedly.

Of the players who are on similar contracts but can't carry a team and is now more of a financial blackhole than anything, Redd, Shard, Brand(!), Arenas, JO (expiring), Z-Bo, AK47, KMart (both). I'm sure there are more, but those are just off the top of my head. Is Amare so much better than them? (rehtorical question. he is, but he's not enough to be called good value on a max contract).

We are talking about max deals, not some 10-12mil a year deal. Unless we want a Michael Redd, Gilbert Arenas or AK47 on our team, we should seriously think against giving Amare a max deal. Amare is 27 and is likely as good as he'll get considering his injuries and his apparent loss in explosiveness this season, he's not young anymore and unlike players like Roy or LMA, we *can't* be paying for potential. Unless you can honestly project him to average 28/10/2 during his next contract deal, then you give him a max deal.

Amare's only real value on the court is his offense but he doesn't play D, he doesn't rebound well and he isn't exactly a leader either. Are we paying max money to a player that doesn't play D? Can't rebound well for a big man? Isn't a leader? Are we paying max money to a player that can score well? Can you list 5 players that is being paid close to max money and is only good at scoring? Now how many of those players are more of a financial burden than an actual financial and basketball asset?

I'm not arguing against keeping Amare here, because I would love him to stay and finish his career with the Suns. But if keeping him means to give him a max contract, then I'm sorry, I'm about the Suns organization first and Amare second. I just don't want another JRich type player who's getting way overpaid just to score. Also, just because we aren't spending max money on Amare, does not mean we have to spend every last cent of that max deal.

I'm not against keeping Amare. I'm against keeping Amare at a max contract price tag.

However, if it comes to paying Amare max dollars or lose Amare - then I am for paying Amare max dollars. Who would you rather spend the $ on? A one year older Dwyane Wade who is also injury prone? Or Chris Bosch who is an even softer power forward than Amare?

DWade has carried a team by himself. Bosh is still soft, but he's averaging 24/11. I'd spend money on Dwade and Bosh over Amare.

[asubennett]

Lets keep in mind this year that Bosch is having a career season while Amare is recovering from injury.

Yet even still here are the numbers -

Both have played 36 games.

Bosch - 35MPG / 52%FG on 16 shot attempts per game / 12 Boards per game
Amare - 34MPG / 57%FG on 14 shot attempts per game / 9 Boards per game

You would let Amare walk free and clear and turn around and give that money to Bosch ? Amares numbers are nearly identical in one of his worst statistical seasons of his career compared to Bosch's best. I think the grass is greener on the other side for far to many of us.

The Wade arguement is a little easier to buy, but what is the incentive for him or Bosch to come to Phoenix without Amare here?

Ultimately, I would prefer not to give Amare max dollars as well. Something along the lines of 16M - 18M a year for 4 years would be an ideal contract. 4 Years / 72M would make him happy I think. And if I think correctly our FO should get it done ASAP and also get out from under J Rich's contract in an effective manner.

[lilfishi22]

I'm not doubting Amare's ability to hold his own (without Nash), but I do doubt his ability to carry and lead a team, which is what is expected from a max money player.

I take Bosh, because he's a consistent player even though he doesn't have the wow factor that Amare brings. Bosh is also a leader unlike Amare. At 25, he still has room to grow but Amare is reaching the stage where you pay for what he's giving you now and not on potential. I probably wouldn't even put Bosh up there in the max money category of players, but he's close. I didn't say I think Wade or Bosh have reason to come to Phx, just that I would take them over Amare because you brought them up and that I wouldn't pay Amare max dollars just because I can't get those two.

Like you, I wouldn't *want* to give Amare a max deal but unlike you, I wouldn't consider giving Amare max money to keep him in Phoenix. 85M over 5 (15M, 16M, 17M, 18M, 19M) would be reasonable. Ideally, we would get out of JRich's contract so we could spend the cap space on help for Amare and Nash.

[thamadkant]

Stoudemire is a scoring powerforward and a good one at that.

Thats all known to all fans of the NBA.


I still think he isnt worth max money because he just doesnt bring enough to the table and you cannot build around him, he is a finisher, a second option to a super star who can set him up.

The OP mentioned that if Stoudemire is to be traded... then add Nash.

It makes sense to a point..

however, Nash has proven that he can still produce and create for his team mates enough to make them competitive EVEN without a player like Stoudemire at the PF.

Also, Suns have very little trading chips... except Stoudemire.
I focus on the team and the team's overall status.. and I judge that Stoudemire CAN bring a lot of positive assets to the Suns and help the franchise in the next 3-5 years.

As a player for the Suns, I think Stoudemire is very important, but IS replaceable. No matter how good his pick and roll game is. Getting 2 "good" players or prospects is enough to offset the loss.

[dantian]

[

Amare is an absolute sure bet? A bet we are willing to sink 120mil into? Think about all the players in the league that are on max contract or near max contracts or even contracts they don't deserve, only a handful at best were sure bets that paid off. Of the list of "sure bets" that didn't pay off, there are many. Unless Amare is a guy who can carry us, he's not worth a max deal. If he can win us 20-25 games a season by himself, then he's in the league of players that *should* be worth a max deal.

Think of the players who are on max contracts (or near), only guys like Shaq, Kobe, Lebron, TD, Wade and Garnett could've carried a team single handedly.

Of the players who are on similar contracts but can't carry a team and is now more of a financial blackhole than anything, Redd, Shard, Brand(!), Arenas, JO (expiring), Z-Bo, AK47, KMart (both). I'm sure there are more, but those are just off the top of my head. Is Amare so much better than them? (rehtorical question. he is, but he's not enough to be called good value on a max contract).

We are talking about max deals, not some 10-12mil a year deal. Unless we want a Michael Redd, Gilbert Arenas or AK47 on our team, we should seriously think against giving Amare a max deal. Amare is 27 and is likely as good as he'll get considering his injuries and his apparent loss in explosiveness this season, he's not young anymore and unlike players like Roy or LMA, we *can't* be paying for potential. Unless you can honestly project him to average 28/10/2 during his next contract deal, then you give him a max deal.

Amare's only real value on the court is his offense but he doesn't play D, he doesn't rebound well and he isn't exactly a leader either. Are we paying max money to a player that doesn't play D? Can't rebound well for a big man? Isn't a leader? Are we paying max money to a player that can score well? Can you list 5 players that is being paid close to max money and is only good at scoring? Now how many of those players are more of a financial burden than an actual financial and basketball asset?

I'm not arguing against keeping Amare here, because I would love him to stay and finish his career with the Suns. But if keeping him means to give him a max contract, then I'm sorry, I'm about the Suns organization first and Amare second. I just don't want another JRich type player who's getting way overpaid just to score. Also, just because we aren't spending max money on Amare, does not mean we have to spend every last cent of that max deal.

I'm not against keeping Amare. I'm against keeping Amare at a max contract price tag.

I said "surer" bet. For most teams over most years, they don't have as sure of a bet as Amare. When you give him up for not willing to pay a lousy 2-3 mil per year more, as we did to JJ back then, do you have equally "sure" bet lined up for the Suns, not to mention "surer" ones like Paul, Wade, Rose, Durant?

As to your argument of only those who could carry a team alone 'deserve' a max. Well, 1st, as you mentioned, a lot more people receive a max contract for good reasons when the teams signed them. This is to say, don't count on it that Amare wouldn't get a max since he didn't "deserve" max cos he couldn't carry a team. 2nd, not even KG could really carry a team. I'd say KG and Pierce co-carried their championship team, both on max contract. And Amare, when healthy, is on the same level to a championship team. I'd go as far as claiming, with his proven ability to adapt to his new body and improved defense, it's only a question of time that he could be as good as Karl Malone, if given chance to work on his postup games.

As for consistency, Amare has been one of the most consistent performer in the playoffs ever since coming into the league. As he used to rely on athleticism, he had to really concentrate to perform adequately on defense, hence his lack of "effort" in regular seasons.

All in all, the basic question is about if you sign Amare for the same money of Lee+Barbosa, would you want the former or the latter package? I'd go with the former. And withcap space available, you might screw up even worse than Lee+ Barbosa, say Brand+Q, Gortat+Peja, or Rashard Lewis...

[lilfishi22]

I said "surer" bet. For most teams over most years, they don't have as sure of a bet as Amare. When you give him up for not willing to pay a lousy 2-3 mil per year more, as we did to JJ back then, do you have equally "sure" bet lined up for the Suns, not to mention "surer" ones like Paul, Wade, Rose, Durant?

We're not talking about a "lousy" 2-3 million difference. I said I would be OK with a 85M over 5 deal, where as a max deal would Amare earning around 105M over 5. That's a difference of 20M.

I didn't say I have a surer bet, but just because I don't have a surer bet doesn't mean you sink 120M into one player. It's like saying, since all 6 faces of a dice are all equally likely to come up, I'm going to sink 100M into betting on a 2 since I don't have a surer bet. If it comes up with a 2, then happy days. If it comes up with any of the other 5 numbers, we are ******.

As to your argument of only those who could carry a team alone 'deserve' a max. Well, 1st, as you mentioned, a lot more people receive a max contract for good reasons when the teams signed them. This is to say, don't count on it that Amare wouldn't get a max since he didn't "deserve" max cos he couldn't carry a team. 2nd, not even KG could really carry a team. I'd say KG and Pierce co-carried their championship team, both on max contract. And Amare, when healthy, is on the same level to a championship team. I'd go as far as claiming, with his proven ability to adapt to his new body and improved defense, it's only a question of time that he could be as good as Karl Malone, if given chance to work on his postup games.

No, I agree. I'm sure teams with a ton of cap space like the Nets or Knicks are going to seriously overpay someone who don't deserve it, but does that mean we should follow suit? I wasn't talking about Celtics KG, I was talking about T-Wolves KG, where he basically carried the team by himself for a decade. I still doubt his ability to improve his defense game and while he'll likely find new ways to score, he won't overwhelm like he used to with his explosiveness.

As for consistency, Amare has been one of the most consistent performer in the playoffs ever since coming into the league. As he used to rely on athleticism, he had to really concentrate to perform adequately on defense, hence his lack of "effort" in regular seasons.

So basically, he's a player that shows up in the playoffs but cruises through the regular season? We're paying Amare max money to show up in the playoffs? What about the rest of the 82 games?

All in all, the basic question is about if you sign Amare for the same money of Lee+Barbosa, would you want the former or the latter package? I'd go with the former. And withcap space available, you might screw up even worse than Lee+ Barbosa, say Brand+Q, Gortat+Peja, or Rashard Lewis...

Just because we don't spend the money on Amare, doesn't mean we're going to use up every cent of his max deal money. I'm positive our FO is going to move forward with our youth movement should Amare walk. I don't think they will blow every cent of Amare's money on players just to make it look like we're trying. If Sarver is reluctant to open his wallet to a max deal Amare, why would he open his max money wallet to other players, like Lee-Barbs?

I don't think our FO is dumb enough just to let him walk. They will likely do a sign and trade and get back some young players and picks. It's not as exciting as Amare, but the future is likely to be brighter.