Susan wrote:cowboyronnie wrote:Masvidal, candidly, told a story about having heard Burns fell out where he suggested to his dad that he might jump in. His dad said, "you're not in that kind of shape." There was no gamesmanship in that statement, he wasn't nesting a false fact deep into a story about his emotional reaction to Burns' dropout.
It's gamemanship.
Overall Usman went from a VERY comfortable fight against his old training partner with a new camp to a brand new fight against a dynamic striker who's fight camp just gameplanned for Usman a few months ago and was thinking about Usman a few weeks ago when they were almost the main event.
-Usman hasn't faced a kickboxer like Jorge ever, his most recent wins were over Colby (basic pressure boxing + wrestling mix and their fight was a kickboxing match), Woodley (explosive counter puncher who has been pretty bleh since winning the belt), RDA (decent standup but nothing overwhelming) and Maia (not a standup fighter). Usman has had a good road for his style in the past few fights.
-Usman needs to gameplan to close the distance IMO. Jorge has great bodykicks and Usman's GNP is NOT dynamic, Usman's mat returns are great but I think Jorge has enough counter wrestling to get away from this and if he does get taken down, he's not going to be overwhelmed there.
-There's a big technical advantage in the standup department for Jorge and literally zero time for Usman to prepare. He literally took the fight and got on the plane. No drilling, no game-planning and no coaching can really be done in that time because they had to focus on weight cutting.
This is pure chaos for Usman. New coach, new opponent, no gameplanning, fighting at 8AM in the **** desert against a guy who's the best striker you've ever faced.
I put money on Jorge winning by KO in either the 3rd, 4th or 5th rounds or a decision. All of them have crazy odds but I could see it happening.
Funny how i see it the opposite. Masvidal is IMO a better stylistic matchup for Usman. Burns is stronger, better wrestler and a better grappler than Masvidal. At the same time Burns is improving his standup game and has shown knockout power. I mainly consider Masvidal a threat in the stand up game. I can see Masvidal winning by KO - but no way he is winning a decision. Usman toyed with Woodley and Woodley are a better wrestler than Masvidal - Maia took Masvidal down four times and Woodley stopped all the takedowns from Maia with ease. Usman are crazy strong - Masvidal wont be able to stop the takedowns, but he will be a danger for all 25 minutes and are lethal in the clinch aswell. I see two scenarios. Masvidal by KO or Usman by decision - and with Usman dominating every second until the KO or for all 25 minutes. I have it 65/35 for Usman.
