UFC on FOX 21 Condit vs Maia Saturday Aug 27th....

[Nemesis21]

Didn't see a thread on this.


Carlos Condit vs Demian Maia
Anthony Pettis vs Charles Oliveira
Paige Van Zant vs Bec Rawlings
Jim Miller vs Joe Lauzon

Sam Alvey vs Kevin Casey
Chad Laprise vs Thibault Gouti
Enrique Barzola vs Kyle Bochniak
Shane Campbell vs Felipe Silva

Garreth McLellen vs Alessio Di Chirico
Marlon Vera vs Ning Guangyou
Ryan Janes vs Adam Hunter

[Susan]

Let's go Maia and Oliveria! I think Oliveria is going to ride Pettis' body up to the top of the 145 rankings.

Wonder if Pettis gets cut after losing his 4th in a row.

[CPT]

Some great stuff on the main card, and nothing much of interest on the prelims. Just how I like it these days.

Condit vs. Maia is great. Pulling for Maia.

Pettis is not getting an easy fight for his FW debut, but I kinda think he matches up well here. It's about good enough to get a title shot for the winner, but Holloway has to get one first, and Conor still being champion muddles things up further.

PVZ vs. Bec I see as them trying to get Paige back on track.

Miller vs. Lauzon jumped out as a "these guys must have fought before?" fight, and sure enough, they have, and apparently it was fight of the night. I wouldn't expect that again. This is like the ultimate gatekeeper fight, as both guys have that air of generally being really good, but I'm not sure they have one top 10 win between them.

[Bernman]

If there's any shred of the old Anthony Pettis left, he'll break one of Oliveira's ribs that are poking through his skin. When that fight came out, I thought that's about as good of a match-up as he could get. In spite of dropping down, Pettis is still facing a lanky guy, who's not very quick, and makes himself a target. He's also not an adept wrestler, more of a bjj guy. Pettis should be able to move, light him up, and avoid many td's or grappling control. Otherwise he's completely washed up as a fighter. You can see through the match-ups since Pettis lost, the UFC are trying to get him back on track. He's just not cooperating himself. Maybe he's incapable of getting back on track. We'll see. It wouldn't shock me if he retired if he lost this one.

Condit is my 2nd favorite fighter. He's still got it, it seems. Glad he didn't stick to that emotional retirement after he got hard done losing the title to Lawler. On paper, you'd think Maia closes Condit down, gets him in a body lock, trips him, and controls him. But maybe Condit hits him with a crafty flying knee coming in, hurts him with elbows in the clinch, and then goes in for the kill. If he wins, I'd think it was almost surely by finish on the feet. I have a tendency to underestimate him, even though I've been a fan for so long.

[Jasen777]

Condit is my 2nd favorite fighter. He's still got it, it seems. Glad he didn't stick to that emotional retirement after he got hard done losing the title to Lawler. On paper, you'd think Maia closes Condit down, gets him in a body lock, trips him, and controls him. But maybe Condit hits him with a crafty flying knee coming in, hurts him with elbows in the clinch, and then goes in for the kill. If he wins, I'd think it was almost surely by finish on the feet. I have a tendency to underestimate him, even though I've been a fan for so long.

It changing to a 5 round fight is big for Condit, IMO. I think he can get it down late (assuming Maia backpacks him for a few rounds which isn't guaranteed necessarily). A rare fight where I like both fighters.

[Bernman]

It changing to a 5 round fight is big for Condit, IMO. I think he can get it down late (assuming Maia backpacks him for a few rounds which isn't guaranteed necessarily). A rare fight where I like both fighters.

I guess, but more from the standpoint of Maia potentially wearing down in the final 2, as opposed to it giving Condit two more rounds to find an opening and finish him. Condit has good cardio, but we have seen him in slow motion in a few 5 rounders. Doesn't mean he will stop trying and can't get the job done. But he's not like Nate, in that he'll automatically be there, if his opponent isn't, and will take advantage. And Maia has some cardio issue history, but it's not really in fights where he takes down the guy and lays flat on him. He's making the opponent work there, and he's more trained for bjj as opposed to striking. So a little different where he's laboring against Weidman. Also carrying more weight then.

[NZB2323]

I know he's lost 3 in a row, but I'm excited to see Showtime fight again, and I'm looking forward to seeing the other fights on the main card also.

[REDDzone]

I know he's lost 3 in a row, but I'm excited to see Showtime fight again, and I'm looking forward to seeing the other fights on the main card also.

Do you still trane at roufusport?

[NZB2323]

I know he's lost 3 in a row, but I'm excited to see Showtime fight again, and I'm looking forward to seeing the other fights on the main card also.

Do you still trane at roufusport?

No man, I'm stationed in Utah. I never got above a whitebelt.

[Bernman]

I think Pettis will win, convincingly, and start somewhat of a renaissance for him. He's getting a mental refresh, I like the way he's sounding, at least half of his issues were mental, and he's facing a favorable opponent to start a momentum turn. After that we'll find out how much he's actually declined physically and if he can get to that peak of confidence and drive he was before. We might have seen the last of the superstar, super potent, super exciting, championship fighter he was before, but I believe he'll at least climb back in the "mix" and be a dangerous guy.

Before I thought he should just hang it up because he accomplished a lot, had plenty going on outside the cage, had lost a step, and was on the borderline of starting to take too much damage. But now I hope he has another run, and I think he needs it, in part to shut up a lot of foolish people who erroneously accused him of doping, and preserve his legacy before he ultimately retires. The decline, and timing of it, around the time when USADA rules took effect (it was even before that, if they actually cared about facts), largely undid the work he previously did from a perceptional standpoint. I think he has a chip on his shoulder about it. And it's what he needed to get back to anywhere near the fighter he was before.

[NO-KG-AI]

I got some money on Condit by decision at +475. I like the bet a lot, I feel like both guys are hard as hell to finish, and neither is going to get particularly aggressive or risk taking when they are operating in the other guys wheelhouse. I think Carlos takes at least 1 of the first 3 rounds, and definitely the last two.

[AirCanadaMouse]

Close fight, I had it 29-28 Lauzon (winning round 1 and 3). Despite two good fights between the two, I'm happy that will be the last one.

[ronnymac2]

Pumped for Condit vs. Maia. I'm relatively new to being a fan of the sport, but Condit has quickly become one of my favorites. Maia is awesome, too, and I'd like to see both get a title opportunity. Pulling for Condit though.

[Bernman]

!!!

I was getting worried Pettis was wearing down and just relenting to the td's. He made a bad tactical/technical/desire choice in the 2nd rd to just nonchalantly get walked back to the cage, then turn his back carelessly. Otherwise he wins that rd easily, and there isn't much concern going into the 3rd rd. Then there was concern, because that 2nd rd could have went either way, and I'm inclined to think most judges would give it to Oliveira on control. Then in the 3rd rd he doesn't even fight the td and he was getting controlled for a period again. I was worried that would continue effectively for the rest of the rd, at it did vs. RDA, especially when he was getting side controlled. But he showed more urgency to reverse position, went for the guillotine, and it really paid off. That could have went south if it didn't.

But winning that way, by sub, makes it even sweeter he did it to one of Susan's bjj favorites who he smugly thought would beat Pettis easily by "riding him to the top". The guy from the striking background, out-grappled him, at least on the ground. He wasn't trying to go for td's. He might want to start re-introducing that into his game so he counters pressure more effectively and doesn't get in a position where he's not the one in control. He did it for the Bendo (WEC), Roller, and Stephens' fights, but it's just went away since.

The first rd Pettis looked close to his old self, although not quite there. His lateral movement is not there like we saw in the Cowboy fight, for example. He's a lot more stationary to be able to get hit and held. But that body kick was devastating, and he was destroying Oliveira with the ground and pound. That's the best top game/gnp we've seen from Pettis. Nearly had him out of there. Some refs would have stopped that. Would have been a shame if he lost a fight that in totality he did so much more damage in, but he didn't leave it in the judge's hands.

[NZB2323]

Showtime!

[NZB2323]

So Demian Maia pretty much has the best MMA BJJ in the UFC, right?

[NO-KG-AI]

Well damn. Lol


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[REDDzone]

Hey Condit, still think Maia is a boring staller? LOL. I never do this, but war jiu jitsu b*tches! Deal with it.

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[REDDzone]

So Demian Maia pretty much has the best MMA BJJ in the UFC, right?

The only other fighter in the conversation is jacare but he bangs with too many bros. Maia is the modern day Royce and is the only one who gives no f*cks what the just bleed crowd thinks.

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[Bernman]

You can't hold it against a guy for having better stand-up. Maia tried to bang bros, and he failed. So now he's more committed to it. I don't know who's better. They have different styles. Jacare is super aggressive, and Maia is much more methodical, although it went quickly tonight. Here's an idea: Maia used to fight at 185 and they're both contenders; let's see them duke it out. A dream match-up for BJJ fanatics.

BTW, Oliveira did a couple shady things in that fight to get control of Pettis at times. At the beginning of the first round he glove touched, then he didn't give him any space, and grabbed a hold of him shortly after. And a couple times Oliveira was on his back with Pettis waving him up to the ref, then Do Bronx rolls over to grab Pettis' leg at that moment. Pettis doesn't have to get sucked into that, but still it's unethical. Any means necessary within the rules for some guys. Pettis is too nice and trusting of a guy often times these days. Has to go back to when he wouldn't glove touch at the beginning of fights to stay adversarial, at distance, and keep his rhythm. And really think about not getting too close to fighters, standing and ground. Then he can power home that body kick. He went away from it after he hurt Oliveira in the first. If he's going to be in, be all the way in, and on his terms for a quick shoot.

Some of the exchanges were just due to Pettis being super nonchalant though, and to create bigger distances between him and fighters, he needs to not be so relaxed. Part an issue he's actively trying to stay composed, part because he's wearing a little. He's a finish or close decision win/loss type of guy.