UFC Global Expansion in 2009

[Headliner]

The UFC has big plans for 2009. After two years of 19 events per, the UFC will add between 4-6 new events to the calendar. One of my biggest criticisms of the UFC has always been a low number of shows. There are dead times during the year when nothing is going on and MMA loses its momentum. Obviously, it is not simple to put on events and no other MMA promotion comes close to matching the total the UFC produces, but I always felt like they were missing out on opportunities. Dana White and the UFC top brass must think the same thing because in 2009 they plan on saturating the market with all the events fans can handle.

A couple months ago, Dana White began talking about the UFC's global plan. He said he wanted it to be a worldwide sport that rivals soccer. Most laughed at him and did not put much stock into the bold statement. It turns out he was not shooting off his mouth and the UFC actually does have very real plans to go global. The only non-USA events so far have been in Canada and England. Both are places where English is a common, if not primary language. I'd hardly call either international. 2009 will change things dramatically.

There are talks of possible events in Italy, the Philippines, Sweden, Australia, and Japan. From my site visitor statistics, I can say with certainty that each of those nations has a strong fan base. Marshall Zaleznik, the UFC's United Kingdom division president, claims "In the spring of 2009, we plan to have two (international) events outside of the United Kingdom." This could mean the UFC's total number of non-USA events could reach 7-8 next year. That is a 100% increase over 2008's total of 4 (England 3, Canada 1). The last time the UFC had a major increase in events was in 2006 when they went from 10 events in '05 to 18 in '06.

The biggest question is what will the added events look like. Will they be Fight Night cards, Pay-Per-Views, or possibly some thing entirely new we have never seen? My best guess is the additional 4-6 events will be a mix of PPVs and Fight Nights. I do not see them adding more than 2 additional PPVs. They would run the risk of watering down PPV cards for the sake of a couple more shows.

No matter what the shows end up looking like, it is great news for MMA fans. The UFC does not want to let the growth of the sport pass them by. Some may worry about a weaker product. I think they are still well within their talent level, though. For all we know 1-2 of the events could be proving ground fight cards featuring less experienced fighters. I have been saying for years they should have 6 shows a year like that broadcast only on the Internet. At some point in the next year it would make sense for Uriah Faber and Carlos Condit to make the jump. Maybe one of the PPVs will be a UFC/WEC fight card with WEC fighters battling for UFC contracts?

The possibilities are endless. MMA is unlike any other sport because it is constantly adapting, and with the UFC's expansion plans, 2009 should be the best year yet.

http://rearnaked.blogspot.com/2008/08/2 ... -ever.html

[CPT]

Interesting stuff.

Here's another article from Dave Meltzer on Yahoo about the UFC's plans for expansion.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/news;_ylt=A ... &type=lgns

[Headliner]

"Joe Stevenson vs. Kenny Florian"

Nice fight, but when does K-Flo get a title shot?
I thought his next fight would be Penn, even if Penns next fight is GSP.

[harry lockheart]

I don't think that the UFC has the talent for 6 additional events as the roster stands now, but they could easily expand their roster with the added revenue that those shows would generate. I now I'm dying when the UFC doesn't have at least one PPV and a UFN per month.

Kenny said he doesn't really care if he when he gets a title shot. His pay doesn't increase for the title shot. It only increases for new contracts.

I don't think Kenny really "deserves" a title shot anyways. Other than Huerta, he's never beaten a contender and Huerta hasn't beaten any contenders either. This is actually a really bad matchup for Kenny. The Sherk fight showed takedown defense as Kenny's weak link and he hasn't proved any differently yet. This will be the first elite wrestler he's faced since then. If he hasn't improved in that area he can't beat Joe without a flash KO which Joe hasn't been susceptible to and Kenny hasn't shown he's capable of anyways. Unfortunately for Kenny, the top of the UFC lightweight division is stacked with wrestlers (Sherk, Griffin, Maynard, Edgar, Guida). The only good warmup fight I could see for him would be hoping that Nate Diaz beats Neer and then calling him out but I don't think he's willing to wait that long for a fight.

[CPT]

I think the UFC has enough talent to fill more shows, but the shows would become even more diluted with talent. We would see more TUF loser vs. TUF loser fights, or some of the WEC guys from the bigger weightclasses. That being said, while I like to see top quality fights of course, I don't really mind the cards featuring a few top level matchups and a few filler fights, as long as the fillers are entertaining fighters in good matchups.

As for Florian, I agree that he's not quite ready for a title shot yet. It's too bad, because he was very close, and I wouldn't have had a problem with him getting one, but he'll likely lose to Stevenson and slide back down the list. If he does beat Stevenson, then he deserves one for sure.

The next one should go to Griffin if he can beat Sherk, imo.

[Chach]

I think that the UFC's global expansion is going to depend on who they absorb as far as fighters as promotions falter in the coming months.

Word is that DREAM may have a handful of shows left in them. If they don't pull good ratings after DREAM 6 then they could go belly up. This means there is going to be a tremendous amount of lightweight talent to be bought up. I think you'll see a lot of the top guys from the LW Grand Prix end up in the UFC, namely Alvarez and Aoki. A lot of the second tier guys like Hansen and Uno, who either are getting up there in age or simply are not on par with the better fighters (and I know Hansen won the Grand Prix) would get a spot in the WEC, which would boost their lower weight classes. I think there is some talent in the middleweight division as well. Manhoof, Jacare, and Miller all looked good to me and would fit well in the UFC and maybe someone like Sakuraba, who like Uno may be too old to compete in the UFC, could find a home in the WEC. I like some of their heavyweights too in Ralek Gracie and Overeem could use a good test.

I'm not a huge fan of WVR/Sengoku's roster aside from Gomi but, again, they are stacked with lighter fighters so this could be a boon for the WEC.

Dana White may be a douchebag but I think he has a point that Affliction is just bleeding money and won't be in the promotion business much longer. This may be a way to land Fedor or just a way to rebuild their heavyweight division (I'd like to see Babalu come back, among a few others).

What this roster expansion could be is 1)deeper ranks with quality fighters, meaning more quality shows and 2)expanded markets for Zuffa. With so many Japanese fighters being added to the UFC/WEC ranks, you could see events held in Japan/China/Philippines and you would have a tremendous outpouring of support. You might have issues with the yakuza and hard feelings over PRIDE in Japan but I believe that it could work. Maybe a UFC/WEC lightweight PPV fight in Japan featuring all the best American and Asian fighters could make some serious money, entrench the UFC AND the WEC as players in Asia, opening up future shows. I think expanding into Brazil is also a natural market for the UFC and maybe into mainland Europe. The problem with some of those scenarios is that the places that fan financially sustain the UFC (like Germany or Italy or Spain) don't have much of an MMA presence and they don't even have the UFC on TV in Germany. Some places that would show tremendous enthusiasm for MMA, like Brazil or Croatia, may not be able to support repeated UFC events. That's why I expect that Pacific Rim will be their next big market. You may see one off shows in Germany or Norway to establish a foundation but if we are going to see considerable growth in terms of international shows I expect the spike to occur in the Pacific Rim.

I could also forsee a redistribution of talent after the talent from DREAM et al. is leeched by the UFC. They may use the WEC as more of an "interntional flavor" lightweight division". I could see someone like Roger Huerta sign his deal with WEC, have some of the more international guys like Hansen and some of the Japanese fighters fight out of the WEC and have the WEC put on multiple international shows. They could follow the UFC show in Norway a few months later with Hansen's homecoming. You could have Miguel Torres and Roger Huerta fights in Mexico City and so on. They could use the WEC as an ice breaker in new markets, drum up some local interest but not put the financial security of the UFC in jeopardy. WEC shows cost less to produce so if they fail to make a profit then the red ink will be minimal. If the UFC goes into the red to do a show in Italy then we are talking about several millions. I don't mean that the UFC would turn into a Whites Only organization but if you have borderline talent in the lighter division, especially gate keeper type fighters who are good and put on entertaining fights but will never really get a shot; move them to the WEC and, like I said, use them to wedge yourself into local markets without putting UFC money on the line. If the WEC is well received, the UFC can put together a legit card and invest the money into moving into that market. While the failures of these lesser promotions of the next few months may hurt the UFC long term, in the short term (maybe 1-4 years), it could be a tremendous boon and is getting me really excited about what could happen. mahalo
~Chach~

[CPT]

Good post Chach, but I have to say, don't hold your breath on seeing the big Japanese promotions fold, or the UFC taking over the Asian market anytime soon. I really hope Dream makes it past Dream 6, but if they don't, look for most guys to go to WVR/Sengoku. If WVR/Sengoku fails, then look for another company to start up in its place. Maybe K-1 abandons the Dream thing and goes back to having a separate MMA division under the K-1 banner.

And a lot of the guys you are talking about are huge stars in Japan. I've seen it first hand. Shinya Aoki is massively popular, and I don't see him ever coming to the UFC if there are options in Japan, which there always will be. Same goes for Sakuraba. He`s still a draw in Japan, and even suggesting he goes to the WEC is a slap in the face. He`d probably return to pro wrestling before he did that.

I hope I`m wrong about this, because I`d love to see guys like Aoki, Gomi, Kawajiri, etc get tested in the UFC, but I just don`t see it happening.

[Chach]

Both DREAM and WVR are on their last financial legs and because of the yazuka fallout with PRIDE, it seems people are not really interested in investing in MMA in Japan and because of television issues, the promotions set up are bleeding money. The fact that DREAM and WVR are two separate promotions and they haven't tried to consolidate under one banner shows that the situation is tenuous at best. You're right that someone like Sakuraba may not come to America (come to think of it, he won't be able to fight under WEC because they are eliminating the MW division) because of age but guys like Aoki are still incredibly young and talented and can stand to make a small fortune in America. Especially if they are apart of establishing the UFC in Japan and the Pacific Rim. Bisping is fighting a ton of his fights in Britain, Aoki and Gomi could be the main events in a lot of the Tokyo fights. There will always be options in Japan, either pro wrestling or some sort of set-up under K-1 or another promotion but from what I am reading, the financial situation is going to make it incredibly difficult to set up a successful, separate promotion in Japan. DREAM has an incredibly talented roster and there is talk of them folding after six shows? There has been a lot of concern over actual payment of fights in Japan as well so while Aoki could make a fortune in Japan, he is not a lock to actually collect that check. Fighting under the UFC 3 times a year in Japan means Aoki continues to fight in front of his home crowd and is guaranteed a paycheck, and a good one at that because he is one of the top LW (although I'm afraid he is going to get run over by some of the top LW in the UFC. His overall game needs work). mahalo
~Chach~

[harry lockheart]

Chach, from what I hear K-1 is waiting for Dream and Sengoku to go under so they can take their talent.

[CPT]

Chach, from what I hear K-1 is waiting for Dream and Sengoku to go under so they can take their talent.

Dream is a joint venture between FEG (K-1) and DSE (Pride).

Maybe K-1 has plans to take over Dream, and change it back to Hero's, but they have a lot of say as to whether or not it goes under.

Even if the UFC breaks into the Japanese market, they are a long way away from running 3 events per year there. It will take a substantial investment by the UFC to do that, because I don't think Japanese fans are going to accept the UFC with open arms, they will have to warm up to it. And without Japanese stars, it's not going to happen. They would have to pay guys like Aoki, Gomi, Sakuraba, and Kid Yamamoto a ton of money to get them in the octagon if there are any other options in Japan (and I believe there always will be).

I hope you aren't assuming that fans in Japan (and Korea) are the same as fans here. Here, the casual fan only watches UFC, but there, the casual fan only watches the Japanese promotions, and unfortunately for them, the causal fans in Japan are declining in numbers.

I'd like to see the UFC be able to expand successfully into Japan, as there are so many fights that I'd love to see if they could grab some Japanese talent. I'm just not sure they will be able to succeed, because bringing an American MMA company into Japan is already an uphill battle, and if the Japanese fans aren't supporting the Japanese promotions at the moment, it might be a high risk, low reward situation for the UFC.

[harry lockheart]

Dream is a joint venture between FEG (K-1) and DSE (Pride).

You are correct. What I had heard was that once Kazuyoshi Ishii (the k-1 founder) got out of jail he was going to get back in the business again. Apparently he got out in August, so he's probably waiting to see what happens with Dream and Sengoku before getting involved again.

[CPT]

Dream is a joint venture between FEG (K-1) and DSE (Pride).

You are correct. What I had heard was that once Kazuyoshi Ishii (the k-1 founder) got out of jail he was going to get back in the business again. Apparently he got out in August, so he's probably waiting to see what happens with Dream and Sengoku before getting involved again.

LOL. Oh Japanese MMA.

[Chach]

Like I said earlier, MMA in Japan is bleeding money. If K-1 has a joint venture with DSE and they are currently losing money, why would they cut out an additional partner to share the losses with? It's not like the set-up is bad, they are doing what worked in PRIDE with the grand prix and what not. The biggest difference is the fans in Japan aren't watching and the promotions are having trouble selling out the arena. Maybe if Ishii comes back, he can work out a television deal with one of the channels and can ramp up the promotional element to help fill the arenas. But that looks like an ugly situation to start a new promotion in. The next organization is going to have to be built up in a more grassroots manner and have a solid foundation and build up the talent base. Just swooping in and signing all the best talent from DREAM seems like a bad business decision (look at the poor shape Affliction is in after one event). Some of the guys may stick around in Japan or maybe even fight under K-1 but some of the guys like Aoki are strictly ground fighters. Professional wrestling is an option but if they signed with the UFC and did a number of fights a year in Japan where the Japanese fighters could fight in front of their home crowd, the casual fan would come out to see Aoki et al.

If you set up some fights under the UFC banner and have Gomi, Kid, Rampage, and Eddie Alvarez fighting on a card, it will definitely be worth the effort. If they could negotiate a TV deal with one of the former PRIDE broadcasters then you can build up the casual fan's interest in the UFC and then if you bring a blockbuster card, stocked with Japanese fan favorites, the groundswell would be intense. Hell, throw the Fedor/Randy fight for the universe in Tokyo and the Japanese public could get behind that. I'm not saying it's going to happen but there is certainly a chance. mahalo
~Chach~