UFC 94: Georges St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn II (Jan 31/09)

[CPT]

Well guys, it's almost here.

For me, the biggest fight of the year, and I think there are many others who feel this way as well. Even though it's a rematch, with the way the first fight went (somewhat controversial split decision), and where both guys are in their careers now (champions of their respective divisions), it is still a fight to get very excited about.

And it headlines a pretty good card overall, too.

MAIN CARD

* Welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre vs. lightweight champ B.J. Penn (for welterweight title)
* Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva
* Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones
* Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim
* Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida

PRELIMINARY CARD

* Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono
* Manny Gamburyan vs. Thiago Tavares
* John Howard vs. Chris Wilson
* Jake O'Brien vs. Christian Wellisch
* Matt Arroyo vs. Dan Cramer

GSP vs. Penn is hopefully going to be a war that could establish the #1 P4P fighter in the world. The winner of this fight would get a major claim to that title, especially if they can do it in decisive fashion. I go back and forth on who I think will win this fight. I believe BJ is the more talented fighter (which says a lot, because there aren't many guys more talented than St. Pierre), but GSP will have a considerable size advantage, and he will definitely have better conditioning even if BJ comes in the best shape of his life. Which brings me to the issue with this fight that is almost becoming cliche at this point: what kind of shape will BJ Penn show up in? If he shows up ready to go a full five rounds at full intensity, you've gotta like his chances. If not, GSP may be able to weather the storm and finish him in the later rounds, or even just control rounds 3, 4, and 5 enough to score a decision. All I really know about this fight is that I can't wait.

Machida vs. T. Silva is a big fight that is getting overshadowed by the main event. Both guys are undefeated at 13-0, and both guys are in the top 10 at LHW, with Machida being ranked near the top for fighting much stronger competition. The style matchup is what makes this fight very interesting. Machida is known as a defensive and strategic wizard, while Silva loves to come forward and push the pace with his aggressive striking. He's been running through a lot of the people he's fought, but there aren't exactly any Rich Franklins, BJ Penns, or even Tito Ortizes on his resume as there are on Machida's. I think Machida will pull it off, but it's the biggest test in his UFC career as far as I'm concerned.

Bonnar vs. Jon Jones seems a bit out of place, especially with a guy like Jon Fitch on the preliminary card, but Jones is a dangerous up and comer, and Bonnar is a solid talent with name value making his return. I think Bonnar gets overlooked a lot, but he's only ever lost to Forrest, Evans, and Machida, and was only finished by the Machida. He's also got a win over Jardine. Now maybe those other guys have improved more than he has, so he's probably not quite on that level, but it will be interesting to see where he's at. Too bad about the horse steroids though, lol.

Karo vs. Kim is a fight I'm really interested in, although I could see some people not caring so much. A win over a guy like Karo would do a lot for KDH's career, and I think he can do it. Both guys have strong judo backgrounds, and I feel like Kim has better skills elsewhere, but he had some trouble with Matt Brown, who is not on Karo's level, so we'll see. I'm not sure what to expect from this fight in terms of entertainment value, but I actually like watching Karo fight, even if he goes to decision a lot, so I'm looking forward to this one.

Guida vs. Diaz is a great fight, IMO. Guida is kind of serving as the gatekeeper in this one, as he did in his last fight against Danzig. He's already stopped one TUF winner from climbing up the ladder, but I think Diaz could give him problems on the ground, where Guida usually wants to take it. It will be a question of whether or not Diaz can catch him in a sub, because if not, it will probably be a unanimous decision for Guida. I'm interested to see what happens.

On the prelims, Fitch vs. Gono is appealing, because hey, Jon Fitch is top 3 in one of the toughest weight classes in the world, and Gono is still somewhat credible. I compare this to the Barnett vs. Yvel fight, except one was basically a co-main event, and the other is lost on the prelims. I'm also interested in Gamburyan vs. Tavares. I like both guys (Tavares more), but both guys could really use a win. I don't much care about the rest, but we probably won't see them unless they are really good anyway. 7 solid fights on a card that features GSP vs. Penn is not half bad.

[cowboyronnie]

it's a 5 round re-match, is the key. their first fight decided nothing - neither distinguished himself. another 10 mins is huge.

[sh00n]

Fitch not being on the main card confuses the **** out of me.

I think Machida will pull it out over Thiago. Dude is so underrated it's not even funny. People just hate on him because he's boring as **** to watch.

[CPT]

Good point CBR. 5 rounds should be enough to settle who is really the better man. Their first fight kind of left that up in the air.

sh00n, I think Fitch is on the preliminary card for spite. Just a friendly reminder not to **** with the UFC. Either that, or it's because his fight isn't worth bumping any of the others. The only one that is up for debate is Bonnar vs. Jones, but I think the UFC wants Bonnar back in the mix at LHW. They have already had their big money fight with Fitch and he lost, so I guess he's gotta work his way back up again. Sucks that he's starting that far down though, especially when the next few cards are kinda weak and could use a guy like Fitch (even if he's still fighting Gono).

As for Machida, he's one of those guys who has almost become overrated just because everyone keeps saying how underrated he is. This fight will help us know exactly where he should be rated, but not as much as a fight against a top 5 LHW would. It will be interesting to see what is next for both Machida and T. Silva after this fight. Of course, a lot of that depends on who wins.

[Chach]

I think if Machida stops Silva, not just a decision but wins in convincing fashion, he gets the title shot, perhaps at UFC 100. Rampage was supposed to get Evans next but he's fighting Jardine now so that would delay a Rampage/Evans fight until like September and to not have the LHW champ, arguably the most stacked division in the sport, not defend his title for nine months is a bit out there. Especially when we saw what happened with Rampage taking so long off. If Machida doesn't win or takes another decision, I can't see Dana giving him a chance but then I don't know who else in the division "deserves" a title shot. All the big name likes (Forrest, Franklin, Lidell, Wandy) are coming off of losses and there is no one who has gone on a Rashad type run to deserve a title shot but Machida. No way Shogun gets a title shot after the Coleman fight. mahalo
~Chach~

[The Notic]

im super excited about the diaz-guida fight. you'd have to imagine that if he wins this, he's probably next in line for a title shot. maybe a rematch with gray or a fight with sherk (not ready?) before an eventual fight with the winner of bj/florian.?

-loser of manny-tavares probably leaves the UFC.
-i'm not excited at all about the bonnar fight.
-karo has a lot to prove.
-i cant imagine a scenario where machida loses.
- when was the last time we saw BJ really work off his back? or GSP meet someone with as good a defensive bjj game as BJ? GSP passing/controlling will say a lot. this fight answers a lot of questions about their respective ground games.

[cowboyronnie]

Bonnar is my favorite fighter and Friday is CBR trivia night.

[Headliner]

Predictions people?

[2009NBAChamps]

My picks are as follows

GSP - Sticking to my guns with this pick and hoping for a decisive victory as well
Machida - Seems more well-rounded from what I've seen
Bonnar - Read some stuff that seems like he's ready but not confident with this pick
Dong Hyun Kim - Not too sure about these guys
& Diaz

[Cammo101]

GSP
Machida
Jones
Karo
Guida
Fitch
Tavares
Howard
O'Brien
Arroyo

[EZ]

Totally stoked for this event...Def fight of the year potential. 2 extra rounds favors GSP, because of his conditioning, but you can't disregard Penn, cause he has explosive knockout power. I'm on the fence with this one, cause I'm a huge Prodigy fan, but GSP is damn good, plus he's Canadian.

I'm intrigued at what GSP will do...he's a good stand up fighter, and even better wrestler/jui jit su, but Penn is down right scary when he goes toe to toe, plus his jui jit su and flexibility is crazy. I'm on the fence with this one...

My mind says GSP TKO in 4 rounds....(Penn will get gassed) BUT my heart says Prodigy win by KO in the 2nd!

[damo[23]]

I absolutely cant wait for this event, so many quality fights, CPT is right that GSP BJ just over shadows what is a very good card.

Predicition wise I am not sure right now. Right now I am feeling GSP, and part of that is just because he's the only one with his belt on the line and being champ means so much to him, BJ goes home champion either way. But its so hard to take anything from each fighter, so much is about how they turn up. One thing is, the longer the fight goes on, the more chance GSP has of winning it just because I think his conditioning will be better. If it goes 5, I see only GSP winning a decision. Other than that I am drawing blanks.

[Cammo101]

BJ is a proud dude and has wanted to avenge this loss for a long time. Motivation will not be a problem for him either IMO.

[damo[23]]

BJ is a proud dude and has wanted to avenge this loss for a long time. Motivation will not be a problem for him either IMO.

Not questioning that in the least. Just BJ has the least to lose out of the both, he goes home champ no matter what. GSP losing really could throw a spanner in the works for him. I mean it'll be a long time b4 he gets to go back for that ww belt etc...

[SpReEfOrAlL]

MAIN CARD

* Welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre vs. lightweight champ B.J. Penn (for welterweight title)
* Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva
* Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones
* Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim
* Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida

PRELIMINARY CARD

* Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono
* Manny Gamburyan vs. Thiago Tavares
* John Howard vs. Chris Wilson
* Jake O'Brien vs. Christian Wellisch
* Matt Arroyo vs. Dan Cramer

[Cammo101]

BJ is a proud dude and has wanted to avenge this loss for a long time. Motivation will not be a problem for him either IMO.

Not questioning that in the least. Just BJ has the least to lose out of the both, he goes home champ no matter what. GSP losing really could throw a spanner in the works for him. I mean it'll be a long time b4 he gets to go back for that ww belt etc...

Belts do not seem to motivate BJ, challenges do. BJ is, after all, the guy that won the WW title against Hughes and then left the UFC right after. BJ is motivated by challenging himself, it is why he has fought so many bigger guys, and it is why he will be amped for this fight.

[spykelee]

I am so unbelieveably primed up for this event. It's been brewing inside of me for a good 3 months now and now that it's almost here, my heart is racing almost all day. Gonna be absolutely awesome.

I think BJ's gonna be in great shape. Watching the ufc preview show and just listening and watching BJ in the past couple years you can see he finally get's it. He wants to go down as one of the best ever, and if the motivation is there, the conditioning and everything else is gonna be there too. Unfortunetely for me, I think BJ is going to take it. I think GSP's chin is still a little suspect and ever since GSP got caught by Serra, he has been reluctant to pull the trigger on his standup. Which is unfortunate because you saw it against hughes, his standup was about as dynamic and effective as standup could get. But then he got caught and now he leaves nothing to chance and just takes guys down. I think he'll get BJ down sometimes and do some damage from the ground, but in the end, I think at some point BJ is gonna catch him with something and GSP will be dazed and unable to recover. I'm not sure when, but I'm picking BJ by knockout unfortuntely...

I also like Machida. He does just enough to win. Even though Silva is talented and aggressive, I think the Yushin Okami of the LHW division is going to take this one in a fight that will have moments, but overal will be relatively boring. Machida by Descision.

I don't know much about Jones so on that alone, I'm going to go with Bonnar. We know he's tough and can take a punch, so operating on that assumption, I think he can take whatever Jones has to dish out and will perserve in the end. Knockout for Stephan

As long as Karo is healthy and in descent enough shape, I think he'll win by KO

Guida Vs Diaz is a tough one to pick. I usually go against Diaz just because he's such a pompus moron, but he is talented. Guida always shows up ready to fight and is aggressive, which is why I think he'll get caught by a Diaz submission at some point. Diaz by sub

I think Fitch rebounds with a strong performance, he is one of the best WW's in the world. He'll be hungry and will win by TKO

Overal gonna be a great card, I just wish it was here already. This guy can't take the anticipation anymore. hopefully i'm wrong on GSP as he's my boy.

[Chach]

Sucks you got the main event wrong Spree otherwise you'd have em all right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4eYjAP2Pts

LAWLRUS

mahalo
~Chach~

[cowboyronnie]

UFC Primetime:

Rashad Evans is the "ideal" training partner, in anticipation of Penn...?

Anyways, these specials have been pretty good.

[El Hardee]

UFC Primetime:

Rashad Evans is the "ideal" training partner, in anticipation of Penn...?

Anyways, these specials have been pretty good.

Rashad is a good training partner for stand up, because like BJ he has good MMA boxing, but there is no one in MMA who has control of his limbs on the mat like BJ. I think that is something GSP will just have to adapt to when he gets there. When he RNC'd Joe Daddy and Pulver he not only took the back he also trapped and arm with his hooks in, the dude is a wizard on the ground.