Is anyone else as sus on the Simons injury as I am?

[Walton1one]

We all know Sharpe is talented, but I want to see a consistent motor. I still don't think he's a number one option, more like 2 or 3. We need Flagg... and probably an upgrade at pg. Scoot doesn't have the IT factor, sadly. Decent player, good guy, but you need a mean SOB to run your team.

Yeah, this is why the 2025 draft is so important, need to give themselves the best chance to get such a player.

Bad news is that there are a LOT of teams racing to the bottom this year, and POR doesn't appear to want to be one of them, at least not yet

Good news, there are a fair number of quality players potentially in this draft. Like to see POR get one of the "Top 6"

Flagg, Harper, Bailey are clearly the top 3 right now

Demin, Edgecome, Traore are in the next group IMO, any of these guys could potentially move up into the top 3

I think all 6 of those guys have some #1/#2 potential, after that there is a group of 4 or so really good prospects, like:

Tre Johnson, Kon Kneuppel, Liam McNeeley, Noa Essengue - I'd throw Ben Saraf into this mix as well

Then it kind of falls off a bit....

Although, I will add, there are some intriguing players that could be available in the late 1st\early 2nd. A lot of wings with size, like:

Alex Karaban & Noah Penda (both of whom worked out for POR LY)

Adou Thiero
Jamir Watkins
Kam Jones
Mackenzie Mgbako
Carter Bryant
Will Riley

Too bad POR won't have any 2nd round picks...

[DusterBuster]

We all know Sharpe is talented, but I want to see a consistent motor. I still don't think he's a number one option, more like 2 or 3. We need Flagg... and probably an upgrade at pg. Scoot doesn't have the IT factor, sadly. Decent player, good guy, but you need a mean SOB to run your team.

Yeah, this is why the 2025 draft is so important, need to give themselves the best chance to get such a player.

Bad news is that there are a LOT of teams racing to the bottom this year, and POR doesn't appear to want to be one of them, at least not yet

Good news, there are a fair number of quality players potentially in this draft. Like to see POR get one of the "Top 6"

Flagg, Harper, Bailey are clearly the top 3 right now

Demin, Edgecome, Traore are in the next group IMO, any of these guys could potentially move up into the top 3

I think all 6 of those guys have some #1/#2 potential, after that there is a group of 4 or so really good prospects, like:

Tre Johnson, Kon Kneuppel, Liam McNeeley, Noa Essengue - I'd throw Ben Saraf into this mix as well

Then it kind of falls off a bit....

Although, I will add, there are some intriguing players that could be available in the late 1st\early 2nd. A lot of wings with size, like:

Alex Karaban & Noah Penda (both of whom worked out for POR LY)

Adou Thiero
Jamir Watkins
Kam Jones
Mackenzie Mgbako
Carter Bryant
Will Riley

Too bad POR won't have any 2nd round picks...

I think Portland will be able to buy or trade their way into the second round. I don't care how strong a draft is, those deals are always there.

Regarding the race to the bottom, I think it's good to always keep in mind the randomness of the lottery. You can have the worst record in the league by a mile and still end up with the 4th pick. Or you can be 6-10 and end up with #1. It's called the lottery for a reason.

I still would rather the Blazers find a way to be worst to guaranteed a 1-4 pick, but, I also understand the NBA lottery is a game of chance - full stop. You can't put all your eggs in just that basket. You also need player development, and successful player development from previous drafts usually ends up hurting your lottery chances if you're doing it right.

[Walton1one]

That is not totally accurate though. People love to use what happened LY as an example of the odds being random\where you are in losses doesn't matter, but the reality is once you drop to #6 and below your chances drop precipitously.

@ #6 Chances of Top 3 pick = 27.6% - #4/5 = 9.6% - Chances of Top 5 pick = 37.2%
@ #5 Chances of Top 3 pick = 31.6% - #4/5 = 12.7% - Chances of Top 5 pick = 44.3%
@ #4 Chances of Top 3 pick = 36.6% - #4/5 = 18.7% - Chances of Top 5 pick = 55.3%
@ #3 Chances of Top 3 pick = 40.1% - #4/5 = 26.8% - Chances of Top 5 pick = 66.9%
@ #2 Chances of Top 3 pick = 40.1% - #4/5 = 39.8% - Chances of Top 5 pick = 79.9%
@ #1 Chances of Top 3 pick = 40.1% - #4/5 = 59.9% - Chances of Top 5 pick = 100%

The teams with the worst 3 records have a 52.1% chance at a top 4 pick, equal chances at #1, #2, #3 or #4

The team with the worst record is guaranteed (100%) a Top 5 pick
The team with the 2nd worst pick has a 79.0% chance of a Top 5 pick
The team with the 3rd worst pick has a 66.9% chance of a Top 5 pick

@\after #6, 37.2% chance of Top 5 (1-4, cannot get #5) and rapidly descending from there.

As an example, 8th pick draft odds (POR is @ #10, right now) Not pretty...
6% shot at #1
6.3% chance at #2
6.7% chance at at #3
7.2% chance at #4

0% chance at #5\6\7

34.5% chance at #8
32.1% chance at #9
7.2% chance of ending up 10/11/12

That is a 26.2% chance at a Top 5 pick (in a draft with 5 consensus high level\franchise level players, that is important) & a 66.6% chance of landing at #8/#9, which for a team that absolutely needs a franchise level player is a DISASTER of epic proportions

This team needs more top-end talent, but maybe Cronin is satisfied with being a non-contending\middling team?

[Case2012]

Vulcans: refuses to pay to build a real team around Dame, wasting our greatest players prime in decades. Also Vulcans: Refuses to tank properly and assemble high end talent through accumulation of draft picks through savvy trades. Our scouts suck BTW. Mike Schmitz is not him.The players we draft, he has histories with. He sets targets on players early on in high school and ignores other options. He has a type of player he likes and isn't objective or creative enough scout properly. I had the complete opposite opinion of him before joining the blazers, he's really let me down.

[Walton1one]

Yeah, the fixation on long athletic players whose main flaws are shooting is rather alarming. Might want to mix in at least one guy who can hit a 3pt shot with regularity. I can't believe that Schmitz\Cronin are either too stubborn or too stupid to see it.

I bolded the players\% that are at\above league average. Take a look at this hot garbage...

Career 2pt\3pt - college shooting
Murray: 40.1% - 27.8% - COLLEGE 47.3% - 34.8%
Rupert: 36.5% - 36.5% - INT'L 43.2% - 25.0%
Camara: 44.7% - 35.8% - COLLEGE 51.3% - 30.7%
Avdija: 45.2% - 32.3% - INT'L 54.7% - 31.6%
Banton: 41.6% - 30.3% - COLLEGE 40.8% - 24.7%
Walker: 44.7% - 28.9% - COLLEGE 47.9% - 39.9%
Sharpe: 44.8% - 34.5% - COLLEGE N\A
McGowens: 41.9% - 33.0% - COLLEGE 40.3% - 27.4%
Minaya: 29.9% - 24.6% [38g] - COLLEGE 40.2% - 29.6%
Moore: 42.1% - 14.3% [4g] - COLLEGE 44.1% - 31.9%

LEAGUE AVERAGE: 2pt - 47.4% 3pt - 36.6%

Not ONE player on the list above has a career average at LEAGUE AVERAGE in 2pt shooting. The closest is Avdija (-2.2% below)

Not ONE player on the list has a career average at LEAGUE AVERAGE in 3pt shooting. The closest is Rupert (off by -.01%, on only 35 total attempts)

For most of them, they sucked shooting in college as well, particularly: Banton (big surprise), Rupert (Australian league), McGowens\Minaya\Moore (POR stellar 2-way signings BTW)

Camara\Avdija\Murray\Walker had good college\international 2pt shooting, half had poor 3pt shooting (Murray - 34.8%) & Walker - 39.9%) had 3pt %'s better than I thought they would be.

[SweaterBae]

But, then we still have Ayton, who "runs" the 100m in 40 seconds. Kind of a problem with a 24 second shot clock. Shout out to Phoenix fans that warned us - solid when motivated, and a massive liability when not. Problem there is that I don't see any team dumb enough to take on the $70M (less this year prorated) salary owed when Home Depot still has those collapsible metal chairs for $20.

lmfao!

[zzaj]

Yeah, the fixation on long athletic players whose main flaws are shooting is rather alarming. Might want to mix in at least one guy who can hit a 3pt shot with regularity. I can't believe that Schmitz\Cronin are either too stubborn or too stupid to see it.

I bolded the players\% that are at\above league average. Take a look at this hot garbage...

Career 2pt\3pt - college shooting
Murray: 40.1% - 27.8% - COLLEGE 47.3% - 34.8%
Rupert: 36.5% - 36.5% - INT'L 43.2% - 25.0%
Camara: 44.7% - 35.8% - COLLEGE 51.3% - 30.7%
Avdija: 45.2% - 32.3% - INT'L 54.7% - 31.6%
Banton: 41.6% - 30.3% - COLLEGE 40.8% - 24.7%
Walker: 44.7% - 28.9% - COLLEGE 47.9% - 39.9%
Sharpe: 44.8% - 34.5% - COLLEGE N\A
McGowens: 41.9% - 33.0% - COLLEGE 40.3% - 27.4%
Minaya: 29.9% - 24.6% [38g] - COLLEGE 40.2% - 29.6%
Moore: 42.1% - 14.3% [4g] - COLLEGE 44.1% - 31.9%

LEAGUE AVERAGE: 2pt - 47.4% 3pt - 36.6%

Not ONE player on the list above has a career average at LEAGUE AVERAGE in 2pt shooting. The closest is Avdija (-2.2% below)

Not ONE player on the list has a career average at LEAGUE AVERAGE in 3pt shooting. The closest is Rupert (off by -.01%, on only 35 total attempts)

For most of them, they sucked shooting in college as well, particularly: Banton (big surprise), Rupert (Australian league), McGowens\Minaya\Moore (POR stellar 2-way signings BTW)

Camara\Avdija\Murray\Walker had good college\international 2pt shooting, half had poor 3pt shooting (Murray - 34.8%) & Walker - 39.9%) had 3pt %'s better than I thought they would be.

I agree with you that it's kind of funny how Cronin seems to avoid shooters...

But Murray, Rupert, Camara, Avdija, Banton, Sharpe...all of them have great looking shot form and aren't close to their prime playing age. There is still room for growth from all of them, especially since a couple of them (Murray/Rupert/Camara) are apparently some of the Blazers' hardest workers. Murray in particularly has shot better since he's tweaked his shot into "no-dip" 3s...

I would argue that with the other skills Murray, Rupert, Camara, Deni, Banton, Walker and Sharpe bring to the table or potentially could bring to the table, getting to league average and shooting at volume makes them valuable in their own way. I'd rather have two-way players than Tracy Murray types, personally. But it is nice to have a couple of those too...

[Walton1one]

The issue I see is you don't need to have (6) of them on your roster, not to mention another (3) on 2-way deals. Actually, it is (8) because they still have Thybulle & there is also Walker, who is a smaller PF type.

Maybe, keep the best 4-5?

Sharpe, clearly
Camara is obvious, because of the defensive intensity he brings
Avdija is another obvious one, all around, defense\passing\pushing the pace
Rupert and/or Murray

After that, get rid of the rest, including the 2-ways

I mean how many do you really need? Hoping they get to league average is a recipe for disaster IMO.

is it really a surprise that the best team in the NBA are also the teams' with the top EFF FG%?

EFF FG% - W\L STANDING IN LEAGUE
1) Cleveland 60.8% - #1 in league
2) New York 57.8% - #10 in league
3) Boston 56.9% - #2 in league
4) Minnesota 56.8% - #11 in league
5) Golden State 56.1% - #3 in league
6) Indiana 55.7% - #20 in league
6) Sacramento 55.7% - #14 in league
8) LAL 55.5% - #5 in league
9) Brooklyn 55.1% - #22 in league
10) Dallas 54.9% - #15 in league

Portland EFF FG% = 49.6% - #29, DEAD LAST - #21 in league

League average this year is 53.9%

Not one team in the top 10 W\L is under 50%
OKC - #4 W\L - 53.3%
HOU - #6 W\L - 50.4%
DEN - #7 W\L - 53.7%
ORL - #8 W\L - 51.4%
PHX - #9 W\L - 54.2%

It is early days still, but looking all this over, would it be surprising to see HOU\ORL fall off (W\L) as the year progresses if these trends continue and they don't address them, which rumors have both teams open to making deals (specifically ORL).

The outlier is BRK

[JasonStern]

Simons is a poor man’s Crawford, if even that. Don’t like the comparison. There’s more equal chuckers.

I disagree. Both are SGs that can put up adequate numbers if given a high usage rate. Both were forced in Portland to play the PG despite that. Statistically, they're fairly similar:
https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&player_id1=crawfja01&player_id2=simonan01
...with, ironically, Simons being the better shooter but Crawford being the better point guard. But while Crawford had the height to legitimately play SG, Simons is exposed. And in an ideal situation, Scoot/Sharpe would be the ideal starting guard position. But despite the hype, Scoot is looking like a Ricky Rubio tier point guard. So, I kind of understand why Billups keeps throwing Simons out there when healthy. Not sure that I agree with it, but I understand it.

[JasonStern]

Vulcans: refuses to pay to build a real team around Dame, wasting our greatest players prime in decades. Also Vulcans: Refuses to tank properly and assemble high end talent through accumulation of draft picks through savvy trades. Our scouts suck BTW. Mike Schmitz is not him.The players we draft, he has histories with. He sets targets on players early on in high school and ignores other options. He has a type of player he likes and isn't objective or creative enough scout properly. I had the complete opposite opinion of him before joining the blazers, he's really let me down.

Schmitz and the scouts are fine. The problem is they are getting base hits versus home runs. The team has no stars. The fact that I could start a thread debating whether Sharpe is the best player on the team over Grant, Simons, and Ayton is pretty telling. But Sharpe was a great pick. Nobody would fault the Blazers for picking Scoot. Cling Kong is looking solid. The Murray pick is questionable, but he was a late 1st in a weak draft. Camara and Banton kind of offset that.

The real questions from what I've seen - which is just highlights because I have better things to do in life than watch this team lose by 50 - are the Grant/Simons/Ayton contracts. And I'll throw Thybulle in because, again just watching highlights, I didn't even remember he was on the team. Problem is that group really doesn't have the trade value Blazers fans think it does.

[Norm2953]

Team does have no star players but one can argue going back to 2018, there were no stars
to be found in the drafts where the Blazers were picking.

It's fair to criticize NO for not going out of way to pair Dame with another star player, Their course
of action seems to take guys who they hope can be that guy who could pair with Dame and are stuck
with the Aytons and Grants of the world.

I could argue at least getting base hits is at least helpful and the team is spending money on guys like
Ayton in the hopes he will play up to his being the first pick in a draft as opposed to guys like Nurk.

I do the think the thing to do is to allow these guys like Ayton and Simons to walk away in free agency
if necessary and build a team that is functional and fundamentally sound. Find a good coach and have
an idea where the team wishes to be in 2-3 years.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Obviously you always want to get complete prospects but if it were that easy everyone would do it... sometimes it feels like you get a pick 2 out of 3 situation and have to decide what to compromise on between defensive ability, size and shooting.

If you are swinging big wouldn't you rather bet on a plus-athlete developing a shot rather than a good shooter who lacks top end athleticism? You can add specialty shooters any draft and in free agency, but often they come with significant limitations.

After a decade of having small and poor defensive teams I really do not mind prioritizing that over shooting. I think its easier and will take us further to eventually add a couple shooters to a solid defensive team than a couple defenders to a solid shooting team.

No more defensive sieves. I don't care how green the grass looks from afar, I would rather not have another Simons who gets relentlessly hunted by opposing teams.

When we are back to trying to win games again if our spacing is still bad. then sure, lets complain and maybe compromise by targeting a pure shooter. But losing games because we aren't good 3 point shooters is maybe one of the best ways to lose games at the moment. Focus on attacking the rim, collapsing the paint, pushing the pace and defending well.

[Wizenheimer]

missed this thread although it sure seemed to evolve past talking about what ails Simons. Has anybody heard if he's available tonight?

hard to know anything but the situation: Simons being tken out of the game because of the rumors of dizziness, then still being out a week later....that kind of sounds like some kind of an irregular heartbeat. Could be a lot of other things though. If it is heart related, hopefully not as serious as AFib; maybe just some kind of PVC (I've had that)

other than that, I've made my opinions clear: Blazers should dump both Simons and Ayton and a good deal for either would be expiring contract(s) and 2nd round picks

[zzaj]

missed this thread although it sure seemed to evolve past talking about what ails Simons. Has anybody heard if he's available tonight?

hard to know anything but the situation: Simons being tken out of the game because of the rumors of dizziness, then still being out a week later....that kind of sounds like some kind of an irregular heartbeat. Could be a lot of other things though. If it is heart related, hopefully not as serious as AFib; maybe just some kind of PVC (I've had that)

other than that, I've made my opinions clear: Blazers should dump both Simons and Ayton and a good deal for either would be expiring contract(s) and 2nd round picks

He's been upgraded from doubtful to questionable for tonight's game. So technically, he has a 50/50 chance of playing. I honestly would be surprised if he played.

And yeah, I don't wish injuries especially scary, heart-related things on anybody.

[Walton1one]

If you are swinging big wouldn't you rather bet on a plus-athlete developing a shot rather than a good shooter who lacks top end athleticism? You can add specialty shooters any draft and in free agency, but often they come with significant limitations.

Can Cronin not walk and chew bubble gum at the same time though? I get going for the risk\reward, but they have approximately 8 players + (3) 2-way players of roughly the same exact archetype, a little overkill, no?

[BlazersBroncos]

missed this thread although it sure seemed to evolve past talking about what ails Simons. Has anybody heard if he's available tonight?

hard to know anything but the situation: Simons being tken out of the game because of the rumors of dizziness, then still being out a week later....that kind of sounds like some kind of an irregular heartbeat. Could be a lot of other things though. If it is heart related, hopefully not as serious as AFib; maybe just some kind of PVC (I've had that)

other than that, I've made my opinions clear: Blazers should dump both Simons and Ayton and a good deal for either would be expiring contract(s) and 2nd round picks

Simons and Ayton for expiring's, or even contracts that simply are the same length, and some SRP is 100000% what this teams needs to concentrate on.

Figure the other vets out later. The main focus has to be on jettisoning them.

[tblazrdude]

"Fentress: Blazers’ Anfernee Simons now has a sprained hand suffered during a recent workout. He is questionable for Friday at Houston. Appears to have cleared illness that cost him 3 games."