by the way, I can't recall saying that the price paid for Avdija was an overpay. I have said it was a steep price and it likely was, depending on where that 2028 first lands
2029 1st - 2nd best b\t POR, BOS & MIL
A lot of factors still to be determined on whether POR paid too much or too little.
POR gave up (1) lower lottery pick, which turned out to be Bub Carrington, who at 19yrs old, ranks 8th on the current rookie ladder
8. Bub Carrington, Washington Wizards
Season stats: 9.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.9 apg
Last Ladder: No. 7
Draft pick: No. 14
Delivered a clunker vs. the Nets after a seven-game stretch of 14.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg and 5.1 apg. “One of the things he does really well is help us get organized,” coach Brian Keefe says. “Now he is making great reads.”
The 2029 pick is TBD, too far out to know for sure, but the chances are both MIL & BOS could be in\facing rebuild by then
Jaylen Brown will be 32, on last year of deal making $65 million
Jayson Tatum will be 30, making $67 million with 1yr left at $71 million
If new ownership doesn't do a salary cap reboot in the next few years (and even if they do) a team with Brown\Tatum i their early 30's would still be fairly good I would wager? But will both be on the team still by then?
MIL is another matter
Giannis would be 34, if he is even on the team
Dame would be 38, same as above
This team WILL be in rebuild, that pick looks to be valuable
Wildcard is POR. Most likely given current trajectory they should be at worst a middling team by then? Maybe playoffs\maybe not depending on the year?
A lot can happen before then, but that 2nd best of pick, probably will be a late lotto\mid teens pick?
So Carrington + that player = Deni (plus factoring if POR can resign him, otherwise you are talking a 4yr rental). We will not count the (2) 2nd's in the equation, not Brogdon, since he did not net WAS anything of value and will likely walk as a FA
Deni will be a UFA in 28/29, provided he plays at this rate, his salary in his LY (27/28) is $11.9mil, he will be 27 years old. I think POR is capped at 175% (Bird Right's). 175% is $21 million, so how much more would POR have to come up with UNDER the salary cap to pay him above that amount
They will have large deals for Camara (up in 27/28), Sharpe (RFA in 26/27), Henderson (RFA 27/28) + Clingan (RFA in 28/29) on the books and possible 1st round picks in some\all of 25\26\27\28 (could be lotto if CHI issue is solved by then) and then you have the potential contracts for Simons & Ayton, maybe RW3.
I think it should be manageable? But who knows if Joe pays Simons a contract like Grant's or Ayton for that matter? I would not put it past him to do that, after all he has already done so before.
What are Bird rights?
Under the “Bird exception,” a team can exceed the salary cap to re-sign its own free agents at an amount up to the maximum salary. A qualifying player must play three seasons for the same team continuously to obtain “Bird rights,” which are named as such because the Boston Celtics were the first team allowed to exceed the salary cap to re-sign one of their own players.
There is also the “early Bird exception,” which enables a team to re-sign its own free agents if they played for the team for some or all of the previous two seasons. The team can offer up to the greater of 105% of the average player salary for the prior season or a 175% raise on the player’s previous salary.
Lastly, a team can still re-sign its own free agent who neither has Bird nor early Bird rights, albeit with more restrictions on the player’s salary.
