Keys to the 25-26 season

[DeBlazerRiddem]

This is probably a different take and might be unpopular but I think one of the keys for us next season is Grant having a big bounce back year. I am hoping that with Jrue and Lillard in the locker room that Grant will give a better effort this year. Him getting back to being that two way player that can put up 20 points a game efficiently is likely what is to make the most difference next year.

The real problem is that the key for us long term is Sharpe becoming a real versatile 3-level scorer which conflicts a bit with Grant's current role as only one of them is likely to be in the starting unit this year. I'm not sure I see that same potential from Scoot, who I think could still be a very solid two-way PG that is valuable and helps us win but I just don't see him being that kind of elite scorer that Shaedon might still become. He wont be the overall playmaker that Roy was but I think he can be a similar scorer who is dangerous from 3, dangerous to get to the rim and finish, and dangerous from the mid-range if both other options are taken away.

Besides that it's pretty standard. We need Jrue/Deni/Camara to be heady two-way players, we need Clingan to be a legit starting caliber defensive center. Yang needs to develop his passing and become a guy we can run offense through from the high-post, while giving us some interior scoring and at least a big body who can keep things physical and tough for other teams in the paint. Thybulle and Williams need good health so they can make us a deep defensive team that can keep teams in lock for the entire 48 minutes.

From the coaching staff, we need a well designed balanced attack offense that creates a lot of open looks and doesn't rely on ISO scoring from any one player. We don't really have a go-to scorer unless Sharpe breaks out in a really big way, and so far Sharpe has done his best work in less structured, more free flowing offenses where he can use a ton of possessions. When he has to share the ball he seems less willing to call his own number. I think that is typically why he has had good runs at the end of seasons but doesn't impact as much early in the season. So we need to find a way to get him thinking in a volume scorers mindset without getting tunnel vision or becoming an inefficient chucker, which is a really tough act to balance.

[DusterBuster]

yep...the Spurs would have won 7 or 8 championships but Duncan was injured during the playoffs a couple of times; so was Manu; and Parker

hot only health, but health at the right time

Yep. I mean, health and luck play into rings more than any of us want to admit.

I think the NBA we grew up with, that was less so (but still impactful like you mention). You watch tape of 90's and 00's games, it's like half the speed of todays games. Part of that is different defensive rules, plus players are training as crazy as they are today so the offseason training requires them to be less present mid-season because of how insane these players are working. Might even call it the LeBron effect, for all the ways he changed the game, I think how players worked on their bodies in the offseason is the biggest. Factor in the new CBA as well... you get to a point where parity like this was always going to be the end point because we're making it harder and harder for players to stay healthy with the stress they're putting on their bodies year in and year out.

So the health factor is way more of a thing now than it was before. I think the rise of major year long injuries for players - even younger players - is a pretty clear sign of that. I just don't know if even that teams getting 3-5 rings in 5 years will ever be a thing again to be honest, even with a young team.

And for teams that DO win a ring, I think that injury factor for the other side is even more pronounced, which is part of the parity we see today.

Lots of rambling to basically said what you said, be healthy - but not just that - be healthy at the right time (luck).

Hell, the Pacers are that perfect example (in both ways). Perfect health for a full Finals run, than a young player in the START of his prime gets a devastating injury.

Long way to say, this is very much a new era of the NBA. It's why, even with a Wemby in the league, I'm not as concerned for a 5-10yr domination run like the Bulls or Lakers... same for OKC.

We'll see tho, maybe SGA will prove me wrong... but I also thought Jokic would be that unstoppable force.

the Pacers drank out of both sides of the cup. For the most part of their 2 year playoff run they kept getting matchups with teams missing key players. They beat the Bucks one year with Giannis out; and beat them the following season with Dame out and Middleton gone. They beat the Knicks 4-3 two years ago when Randle was out and Robinson was injured. Then they went up against a healthy Celtics team and got swept

this year, after the Bucks they got the Cavs when Garland was injured and Hunter was hobbled; and they jumped the Cavs because of that. And in all of these series, the Pacers had nearly perfect health.They beat a healthy Knicks team in the ECF...and then, game 7 of the finals....pooooof!

Yep! Exactly my long winded point haha.

You do have to give the Pacers some credit tho, while they had wild injury luck through the East, they took a fully healthy OKC to 7 and we’ll never know the actual outcome had Hali stayed healthy.

But yeah, with the pace of the game being exponentially faster than ever and players being more maniacal about training and pushing themselves harder every year, it’s why we’re seeing the huge rise in these Achilles injuries I believe. It’s like how microfracture surgery was in the late 00s a bit.

[Wizenheimer]

Yep! Exactly my long winded point haha.

You do have to give the Pacers some credit tho, while they had wild injury luck through the East, they took a fully healthy OKC to 7 and we’ll never know the actual outcome had Hali stayed healthy.

But yeah, with the pace of the game being exponentially faster than ever and players being more maniacal about training and pushing themselves harder every year, it’s why we’re seeing the huge rise in these Achilles injuries I believe. It’s like how microfracture surgery was in the late 00s a bit.

just out of curiosity, median Pace (backtracking a decade at a time):

2025-25 - 98.9 (possessions/48 minutes)

2014-15 - 93.9

2004-05 - 90.8 (hand checking outlawed)

1995-95 - 92.7

1985-85 - 102.1

1976-77 - 107.2 (Portland wins championship; pace = 108.0)

1974-75 - 104.6

1964-65 - 116.2

NBA spent 20-25 years with faster paced games than now. Pace was even faster when you consider that teams back then weren't running back and stopping at the 3 point line. That was back when outlet passes were king. Walton was a master at that; so was Wilt

[DusterBuster]

Yep! Exactly my long winded point haha.

You do have to give the Pacers some credit tho, while they had wild injury luck through the East, they took a fully healthy OKC to 7 and we’ll never know the actual outcome had Hali stayed healthy.

But yeah, with the pace of the game being exponentially faster than ever and players being more maniacal about training and pushing themselves harder every year, it’s why we’re seeing the huge rise in these Achilles injuries I believe. It’s like how microfracture surgery was in the late 00s a bit.

just out of curiosity, median Pace (backtracking a decade at a time):

2025-25 - 98.9 (possessions/48 minutes)

2014-15 - 93.9

2004-05 - 90.8 (hand checking outlawed)

1995-95 - 92.7

1985-85 - 102.1

1976-77 - 107.2 (Portland wins championship; pace = 108.0)

1974-75 - 104.6

1964-65 - 116.2

NBA spent 20-25 years with faster paced games than now. Pace was even faster when you consider that teams back then weren't running back and stopping at the 3 point line. That was back when outlet passes were king. Walton was a master at that; so was Wilt

Interesting stats. I guess when I said “faster than ever”, it was really my personal POV. I never watched much basketball from the 70s or really any of the 80s having not been born in the 70s and only alive for roughly half of the 80s, so being far too young to even barely understand what basketball was. I only started watching the NBA in the mid to late 90s.

[Wizenheimer]

Yep! Exactly my long winded point haha.

You do have to give the Pacers some credit tho, while they had wild injury luck through the East, they took a fully healthy OKC to 7 and we’ll never know the actual outcome had Hali stayed healthy.

But yeah, with the pace of the game being exponentially faster than ever and players being more maniacal about training and pushing themselves harder every year, it’s why we’re seeing the huge rise in these Achilles injuries I believe. It’s like how microfracture surgery was in the late 00s a bit.

just out of curiosity, median Pace (backtracking a decade at a time):

2025-25 - 98.9 (possessions/48 minutes)

2014-15 - 93.9

2004-05 - 90.8 (hand checking outlawed)

1995-95 - 92.7

1985-85 - 102.1

1976-77 - 107.2 (Portland wins championship; pace = 108.0)

1974-75 - 104.6

1964-65 - 116.2

NBA spent 20-25 years with faster paced games than now. Pace was even faster when you consider that teams back then weren't running back and stopping at the 3 point line. That was back when outlet passes were king. Walton was a master at that; so was Wilt

Interesting stats. I guess when I said “faster than ever”, it was really my personal POV. I never watched much basketball from the 70s or really any of the 80s having not been born in the 70s and only alive for roughly half of the 80s, so being far too young to even barely understand what basketball was. I only started watching the NBA in the mid to late 90s.

transition offense was king in the 70's. That Blazers championship team was keyed by Walton/Lucas outlet passes and the guards and SF's: Lionel Hollins, Dave Twardzick Johnny Davis, Herm Gilliam, Bob Gross, and Larry Steele just rim-running like crazy. Walton and Lucas were key for the half court sets

[Norm2953]

I've brought this up before but imagine that 1977 team with Moses Malone.

Portland might have had several NBA titles even without Walton with MM, Luke and Lionel

It's a shame Larry Weinberg viewed Malone as trade bait for future picks, for they felt Malone
would have no real shot at PT with Walton, Lucas and Lloyd Neal ahead of him

[mighty_duck]

Transition baskets, yes. But also a whole lot of what would be considered bad shots today - contested mid range shots early in the shot clock.
It's a good data point, but there are other factors in to what makes a player engage in high risk athletic endeavors.

[DaVoiceMaster]

just out of curiosity, median Pace (backtracking a decade at a time):

2025-25 - 98.9 (possessions/48 minutes)

2014-15 - 93.9

2004-05 - 90.8 (hand checking outlawed)

1995-95 - 92.7

1985-85 - 102.1

1976-77 - 107.2 (Portland wins championship; pace = 108.0)

1974-75 - 104.6

1964-65 - 116.2

NBA spent 20-25 years with faster paced games than now. Pace was even faster when you consider that teams back then weren't running back and stopping at the 3 point line. That was back when outlet passes were king. Walton was a master at that; so was Wilt

Interesting stats. I guess when I said “faster than ever”, it was really my personal POV. I never watched much basketball from the 70s or really any of the 80s having not been born in the 70s and only alive for roughly half of the 80s, so being far too young to even barely understand what basketball was. I only started watching the NBA in the mid to late 90s.

transition offense was king in the 70's. That Blazers championship team was keyed by Walton/Lucas outlet passes and the guards and SF's: Lionel Hollins, Dave Twardzick Johnny Davis, Herm Gilliam, Bob Gross, and Larry Steele just rim-running like crazy. Walton and Lucas were key for the half court sets

Youn didn't have nearly as many long rebounds back then cuz there was no 3 point shot. Seems like you can't have as many players leak out now cuz they need to try and grab the long rebound.

[Wizenheimer]

Interesting stats. I guess when I said “faster than ever”, it was really my personal POV. I never watched much basketball from the 70s or really any of the 80s having not been born in the 70s and only alive for roughly half of the 80s, so being far too young to even barely understand what basketball was. I only started watching the NBA in the mid to late 90s.

transition offense was king in the 70's. That Blazers championship team was keyed by Walton/Lucas outlet passes and the guards and SF's: Lionel Hollins, Dave Twardzick Johnny Davis, Herm Gilliam, Bob Gross, and Larry Steele just rim-running like crazy. Walton and Lucas were key for the half court sets

Youn didn't have nearly as many long rebounds back then cuz there was no 3 point shot. Seems like you can't have as many players leak out now cuz they need to try and grab the long rebound.

two-edged sword because teams now are also jacking up three's on the first opportunity, thus limiting time of possession

look....I watched the NBA in the 70's and even in the late 60's; I'm that old. And I'm here to testify that the pace of play was much faster back then than it is today. The Blazer championship team would run circles around current NBA teams, and that team was playing in the heavy hand check era; much more physical defense and there was no illegal defense rule or restricted circle

[dckingsfan]

transition offense was king in the 70's. That Blazers championship team was keyed by Walton/Lucas outlet passes and the guards and SF's: Lionel Hollins, Dave Twardzick Johnny Davis, Herm Gilliam, Bob Gross, and Larry Steele just rim-running like crazy. Walton and Lucas were key for the half court sets

Youn didn't have nearly as many long rebounds back then cuz there was no 3 point shot. Seems like you can't have as many players leak out now cuz they need to try and grab the long rebound.

two-edged sword because teams now are also jacking up three's on the first opportunity, thus limiting time of possession

look....I watched the NBA in the 70's and even in the late 60's; I'm that old. And I'm here to testify that the pace of play was much faster back then than it is today. The Blazer championship team would run circles around current NBA teams, and that team was playing in the heavy hand check era; much more physical defense and there was no illegal defense rule

I was watching the Lakers at the same time. The 1971–72 Lakers played way faster than any team that I see now (okay, a bit anecdotal).

There are probably too many possibilities to the really assess the reasons behind the recent Achilles injuries.

Overuse (working out through the summer), shoes, style of play (more cutting - since many occur during non-contact plays), and not be in optimal shape after recovering from previous injuries. But it doesn't seem (to me) like pace is the cause.

[DaVoiceMaster]

transition offense was king in the 70's. That Blazers championship team was keyed by Walton/Lucas outlet passes and the guards and SF's: Lionel Hollins, Dave Twardzick Johnny Davis, Herm Gilliam, Bob Gross, and Larry Steele just rim-running like crazy. Walton and Lucas were key for the half court sets

Youn didn't have nearly as many long rebounds back then cuz there was no 3 point shot. Seems like you can't have as many players leak out now cuz they need to try and grab the long rebound.

two-edged sword because teams now are also jacking up three's on the first opportunity, thus limiting time of possession

look....I watched the NBA in the 70's and even in the late 60's; I'm that old. And I'm here to testify that the pace of play was much faster back then than it is today. The Blazer championship team would run circles around current NBA teams, and that team was playing in the heavy hand check era; much more physical defense and there was no illegal defense rule or restricted circle

Agreed. My earliest recollection was Game 6 of the championship year. Been a fan ever since. I'd love to go back to that era for a bit.

[m0ng0]

Progression

[Walton1one]

Another year...another baffling roster composition. The keys should be (besides staying healthy):

- Lean in on the development of the young guys, hard to do with so many vets blocking their paths (outside of DC)
- Get rid of more of the vet (Grant\Williams\Thybulle\Reath) ballast
- Probably already known but, either Murray\Rupert have it or they do not. IMO, time to cut bait with both of them
- Lots of G-league time for Yang while he works on his conditioning (not good)
- No early return for Dame this year, no reason to fight for a playin\playoff spot this year, instead just focus on return for next year, more time for recovery
- Miss the playoffs, I don't buy the benefit of being in that game being more valuable than a lottery pick in 2026, AFTER this year and with Dame returning in 2027, THEN who cares about giving that CHI pick, but not in 2026.

As for individual players:

Jrue has been a very good player throughout his career, but it certainly seems age is catching up with him. I question how much he has left and how many games he will actually play

Dame is a nice story for PDX, but a small guard coming off an achilles injury at age 36 next year does not seem to me to be a recipe for success and his playstyle has never really been conducive to lasting playoff success, as fun and mercurial as he can be to watch at times

I am just not a believer in Yang at all. There is a pretty clear history of non-success of Chinese players in the NBA. There has been one player in the NBA's history (Yao, and he was 7'6 300+ lbs), that I can recall and he was a major outlier, surely there may be another some day, but a slow\plodding big man with surprisingly poor fitness for a guy his age does not seem to me to be that type of player, no matter how good his passing\court vision is.

Like Deni, but question how his physical play (initating contact) will work when games matter most (playoffs) or will he be called for more offensive fouls (likely)

Can Camara improve offensively? Seems to me he is about at his max potential, good D, can hit 3pt shot at an NBA average level, but limited on ball skills offensively, that is a good\valuable player to have on your team, not sure I would want to pay that guy $30 mil\year though

I like Sharpe, horrendous 3pt shooting (takes\settles for it way too many times). Defense needs to improve, needs to attack the basket more, where he is very dynamic and play with intensity more, but he won't turn 23 until next May, so still a little time for growth IMO, oh yeah and he has the prototypical size and uber athleticism you want in an NBA guard...but...he likely will be coming off the bench in Y4? Not good...

Want to believe in Scoot, will this be his year? It is really hard to truly break out when you are constantly stuck behind Simons, now Jrue and next year Jrue AND Dame? I think he could end up as a good NBA player, just not sure it will be in Portland unfortunately.

I think DC is a keeper even if the offense never really comes along, what he can provide defensively is immensely valuable, Rudy Gobert has made a career out of doing just that...

As for the rest, there is little\nothing appealing IMO

Grant...Just a horrible contract, lackluster play\ISO preference type of play, has to\will likely be the starter (Billups loves to coddle his vets), which is not ideal or good for Sharpe\Scoot.

Williams...tons of talent, can't stay healthy, should have been traded, likely gone next year anyway, can't count on anything from him

Thybulle...always a good team defender but his offense over his career (not a 15 game sample size) leaves a lot to be desired

Murray...just not likely an NBA player

Reath...same, he is cheap so they brought him back, as 4th\3rd? center, but why not bring in a younger\better NBA vet?

Rupert...Yeah, about off the bandwagon here, just doubt he will ever have the court IQ\talent to be an NBA player. Not even Travis Outlaw level...

Blake Wesley...I see the why, but why? Another shoot 1st SG in a PG body, Scoot\Dame\Jrue\Love\Wesley, I get it 1 year rental as b\u, just seems to me better options out there

In the playoffs a team as POR is constructed (prioritizing defense), could be better than they look in the regular season however, during the regular season this team's lack of scoring will likely be an Achilles heel all year long.

21st in scoring LY, 26th in FG%, 26th in 3ptFG%, 25th in EFG%, 23rd in TS%, 22nd in pt differential, 22nd OFRTG, 21st NET rating, 27th in assists, 28th in AST%

Adding Jrue Holiday and playing (hopefully) the same\better level of defense they showed towards the end of the year is not going to improve those numbers....

[dckingsfan]

Another year...another baffling roster composition. The keys should be (besides staying healthy):

- Lean in on the development of the young guys, hard to do with so many vets blocking their paths (outside of DC)
- Lots of G-league time for Yang while he works on his conditioning (not good)

I think there is plenty of opportunity for the youngsters to develop.

Age order:
Yang needs time and I think he gets it in the D League, more importantly time to work on his body
I think Rupert will get more minutes this year than last and get his chances
Clingan will get as many minutes as he can handle, same with Scoot and Sharpe even if they don't start
Avdija and Camara will be leaned on heavily

Do I like that there aren't more youngsters in the pipeline (and that our 2ways aren't all that) - not at all, it is quite baffling how bad this swing and miss has been.

But I think the youngsters we have will be given what they need.

My 1/2 cent.

[zzaj]

Another year...another baffling roster composition. The keys should be (besides staying healthy):

- Lean in on the development of the young guys, hard to do with so many vets blocking their paths (outside of DC)
- Lots of G-league time for Yang while he works on his conditioning (not good)

I think there is plenty of opportunity for the youngsters to develop.

Age order:
Yang needs time and I think he gets it in the D League, more importantly time to work on his body
I think Rupert will get more minutes this year than last and get his chances
Clingan will get as many minutes as he can handle, same with Scoot and Sharpe even if they don't start
Avdija and Camara will be leaned on heavily

Do I like that there aren't more youngsters in the pipeline (and that our 2ways aren't all that) - not at all, it is quite baffling how bad this swing and miss has been.

But I think the youngsters we have will be given what they need.

My 1/2 cent.

Honestly, unless Williams is able to play big minutes for the first time in his career, and the Blazers allow that to happen (they won't)...I don't think Yang is going to the Gleague. They need him on the active roster as an option behind Clingan, who will likely only play in the 25 minute range, give or take a few.

[dckingsfan]

Another year...another baffling roster composition. The keys should be (besides staying healthy):

- Lean in on the development of the young guys, hard to do with so many vets blocking their paths (outside of DC)
- Lots of G-league time for Yang while he works on his conditioning (not good)

I think there is plenty of opportunity for the youngsters to develop.

Age order:
Yang needs time and I think he gets it in the D League, more importantly time to work on his body
I think Rupert will get more minutes this year than last and get his chances
Clingan will get as many minutes as he can handle, same with Scoot and Sharpe even if they don't start
Avdija and Camara will be leaned on heavily

Do I like that there aren't more youngsters in the pipeline (and that our 2ways aren't all that) - not at all, it is quite baffling how bad this swing and miss has been.

But I think the youngsters we have will be given what they need.

My 1/2 cent.

Honestly, unless Williams is able to play big minutes for the first time in his career, and the Blazers allow that to happen (they won't)...I don't think Yang is going to the Gleague. They need him on the active roster as an option behind Clingan, who will likely only play in the 25 minute range, give or take a few.

You could be right. Then again, they may play Reath and Williams (until the wheels inevitably fall off) giving Yang a bit of time before he starts playing meaningful minutes.

Kind of weird that we have four Cs and that is one of the weaknesses on the roster. Smh.