Pre-Training Camp: Predict the Starting Line Up?

[DusterBuster]

That report from Highkin is erroneous.

I guess I was overdue to have this happen again.

I published the first part of this very mailbag on Monday, and it included a question about Jerami Grant's role for the upcoming season. What I wrote—and it was clearly my own opinion, as opposed to reporting about what the team would do—is that Grant, or any other player, should not be assumed to be guaranteed a starting role based on tenure and salary.

Apparently, a prominent aggregation slop website posted it and said I wrote that it was "likely" that Grant would come off the bench next season (which I did not write), and based on that, another account on "X, The Everything App" with 2 million followers posted this:

After I called it out, they deleted the tweet with no acknowledgement, retraction or clarification and kept it moving, as they do. They got what they wanted out of it—more engagement, which leads to money if you pay for a blue check. Whether or not they accurately represented what I wrote is a secondary concern. They know that most people who see the tweet will react to it without seeking out the original source (which they didn't link, for what it's worth).

This stuff is an occupational hazard in the current media climate, and it's only getting worse. But that's a bigger conversation for a different day. Just be smart about what you read and what you believe.

I don't know why anyone would expect Billups to change his ways now, especially when they added Jrue?

It is going to be...Jrue\Toumani\Grant\Deni\Clingan...though I would not rule out Rob Williams starting instead if he is healthy at the start of the season...

I wonder how many losing seasons\mediocre seasons Billups (and Cronin for that matter) can endure under new ownership before they are turfed, will be a good day when they are...

Billups has only ever started Rob 3 times in his 2 seasons in Portland. Only way Rob starts is if Clingan is injured to start the year.

I do think Rob will take Yang's backup minutes if he's healthy, but given Rob's health issues, probably gonna be another half Active / half IRL season for him.

[dckingsfan]

G - Jrue Holiday (18) / Scoot Henderson (30)
G - Shadeon Sharpe (30) / Jrue Holiday (8) / Matisse Thybulle (10)
F - Toumani Camara (30) / Jerami Grant (10) / Matisse Thybulle (8)
F - Deni Avdija (32) / Jerami Grant (16)
C - Donovan Clingan (26) / Robert Williams (16) / Yang or Reath (6)

Now add in the number of games each player will play. Then it gets really interesting...

[PDXKnight]

G - Jrue Holiday (18) / Scoot Henderson (30)
G - Shadeon Sharpe (30) / Jrue Holiday (8) / Matisse Thybulle (10)
F - Toumani Camara (30) / Jerami Grant (10) / Matisse Thybulle (8)
F - Deni Avdija (32) / Jerami Grant (16)
C - Donovan Clingan (26) / Robert Williams (16) / Yang or Reath (6)

Now add in the number of games each player will play. Then it gets really interesting...

The 16 is accurate if we are talking rob (I know he means mpg but my statement stands

[dckingsfan]

G - Jrue Holiday (18) / Scoot Henderson (30)
G - Shadeon Sharpe (30) / Jrue Holiday (8) / Matisse Thybulle (10)
F - Toumani Camara (30) / Jerami Grant (10) / Matisse Thybulle (8)
F - Deni Avdija (32) / Jerami Grant (16)
C - Donovan Clingan (26) / Robert Williams (16) / Yang or Reath (6)

Now add in the number of games each player will play. Then it gets really interesting...

The 16 is accurate if we are talking rob (I know he means mpg but my statement stands)

Yeah, I can see RWIII playing real minutes if/when he is healthy, good point.

I guess what I means is (for example) if you look at Jrue. BlazersBroncos has him playing 26 minutes per game, probably a good guess. Now if you say, he is going to play say 60 games, that is 1560 minutes.

Going through the exercise you can see that it becomes "interesting" later on in the season. The starting lineup coming out of preseason may indeed be accurate. I just don't think it paints the real picture with this team, no?

[BlazersBroncos]

Now add in the number of games each player will play. Then it gets really interesting...

The 16 is accurate if we are talking rob (I know he means mpg but my statement stands)

Yeah, I can see RWIII playing real minutes if/when he is healthy, good point.

I guess what I means is (for example) if you look at Jrue. BlazersBroncos has him playing 26 minutes per game, probably a good guess. Now if you say, he is going to play say 60 games, that is 1560 minutes.

Going through the exercise you can see that it becomes "interesting" later on in the season. The starting lineup coming out of preseason may indeed be accurate. I just don't think it paints the real picture with this team, no?

I think the below are all guys that, if needed, you can play 30+ mpg and not have to bite your lip -

Scoot
Holiday
Sharpe
Thybulle
Grant
Toumani
Deni
Donovan
RWIII

That is 9 quite solid NBA players IMO (Debatable on Scoot). Then it gets a bit rough -

Reath is the only guy past the Top-9 that I dont think is a disaster if forced to play more than 20mpg.

Kris and Rayan are guys that, if your trying to win, you cant really trust with more than 10-15mpg.

Yang - who knows. I wont take a solid stance on a rookie.

It isnt the biggest issue, and it doesnt really affect my positive grade on this offseason (As we can sign someone in-season if needed to cover minutes) - but I would have used the VM on a few more 'playable' veterans as we are clearly trying to win games.

Some names avaliable that I would see as excellent VM fits that could fill in for 15-20mpg for a stretch if a few Top-9 guys went down - Patty Mills, Torrey Craig, Cory Joseph, Delon Wright, Landry Shamet, Kevin Knox, Damion Lee - these are guys that fit the sweet spot of wont be expecting PT (As a guy like Trey Lyles would IMO) but also have just enough juice left to fill in for a time at a level that is arguably passable.

[zzaj]

The 16 is accurate if we are talking rob (I know he means mpg but my statement stands)

Yeah, I can see RWIII playing real minutes if/when he is healthy, good point.

I guess what I means is (for example) if you look at Jrue. BlazersBroncos has him playing 26 minutes per game, probably a good guess. Now if you say, he is going to play say 60 games, that is 1560 minutes.

Going through the exercise you can see that it becomes "interesting" later on in the season. The starting lineup coming out of preseason may indeed be accurate. I just don't think it paints the real picture with this team, no?

I think the below are all guys that, if needed, you can play 30+ mpg and not have to bite your lip -

Scoot
Holiday
Sharpe
Thybulle
Grant
Toumani
Deni
Donovan
RWIII

That is 9 quite solid NBA players IMO (Debatable on Scoot). Then it gets a bit rough -

Reath is the only guy past the Top-9 that I dont think is a disaster if forced to play more than 20mpg.

Kris and Rayan are guys that, if your trying to win, you cant really trust with more than 10-15mpg.

Yang - who knows. I wont take a solid stance on a rookie.

It isnt the biggest issue, and it doesnt really affect my positive grade on this offseason (As we can sign someone in-season if needed to cover minutes) - but I would have used the VM on a few more 'playable' veterans as we are clearly trying to win games.

Some names avaliable that I would see as excellent VM fits that could fill in for 15-20mpg for a stretch if a few Top-9 guys went down - Patty Mills, Torrey Craig, Cory Joseph, Delon Wright, Landry Shamet, Kevin Knox, Damion Lee - these are guys that fit the sweet spot of wont be expecting PT (As a guy like Trey Lyles would IMO) but also have just enough juice left to fill in for a time at a level that is arguably passable.

Yeah, despite swapping Simons for Jrue the team is very thin at PG. And with Clingan likely to get banged up and miss some games as well as RWIII likely to only play a small portion of the season, Center depth is also an issue...especially if you factor in the lack of a small-ball center on the roster.

In terms of watchability (is that a word?) and storylines this team will be much improved. From a W/L perspective? I doubt they are more than 5 games better than last season. I count only Utah, New Orleans, and maybe Sacramento and Phoenix as worse than them in the West. OFC there will be a couple of teams stung by injuries.

[BlazersBroncos]

Yeah, despite swapping Simons for Jrue the team is very thin at PG. And with Clingan likely to get banged up and miss some games as well as RWIII likely to only play a small portion of the season, Center depth is also an issue...especially if you factor in the lack of a small-ball center on the roster.

Ya its not a huge demerit for my offseason grade but I 100% would prefer a vet 3rd string PG to Blake Wesley (Who really isnt a PG to begin with).

I think C depth will be fine. If DC and RWIII are out you ride with Reath and Yang. I think Yang is going to be playable from the start though, some may disagree.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Yeah, despite swapping Simons for Jrue the team is very thin at PG. And with Clingan likely to get banged up and miss some games as well as RWIII likely to only play a small portion of the season, Center depth is also an issue...especially if you factor in the lack of a small-ball center on the roster.

Ya its not a huge demerit for my offseason grade but I 100% would prefer a vet 3rd string PG to Blake Wesley (Who really isnt a PG to begin with).

I think C depth will be fine. If DC and RWIII are out you ride with Reath and Yang. I think Yang is going to be playable from the start though, some may disagree.

Your picks for starters and backups on page 1 looked pretty spot-on, IMHO ... with one exception: YANG.

No word has yet come out exactly how high Yang was on the Trail Blazers draft board. Eventually, the Clingan chatter implied he was really high on last year's board. Given the skills I've already seen and abilities that meet the threshold (or can do so given a couple offseasons of work) -- and with a moderately high level of confidence -- I see Yang as a rotation player in the NBA with a more likely than not result as a starter. No hype -- not really. Just a willingness to say it now. It's early.

And because of this, I expect Yang to be on the court a good share of the 20 minutes that Clingan isn't. This is a rare time for some force feeding -- as much as Yang can handle against back-ups -- and playing alongside Jerami Grant, Matisse, and Scoot. It's going to be ugly at times and really fun, too.

[Wizenheimer]

No word has yet come out exactly how high Yang was on the Trail Blazers draft board. Eventually, the Clingan chatter implied he was really high on last year's board. Given the skills I've already seen and abilities that meet the threshold (or can do so given a couple offseasons of work) -- and with a moderately high level of confidence -- I see Yang as a rotation player in the NBA with a more likely than not result as a starter. No hype -- not really. Just a willingness to say it now. It's early.

And because of this, I expect Yang to be on the court a good share of the 20 minutes that Clingan isn't. This is a rare time for some force feeding -- as much as Yang can handle against back-ups -- and playing alongside Jerami Grant, Matisse, and Scoot. It's going to be ugly at times and really fun, too.

from what I saw in SL, and what I've seen for 3 seasons from Grant, if Yang & Grant are on the floor together as the C/PF, Portland will get crushed on the boards. It would be even worse on the offensive glass, and that's probably when the Blazers will be chucking up a lot of bricks. Yang was a poor rebounder in SL. And all the chatter about him blocking out instead of rebounding was a poor excuse. Portland was 25th in rebounding as a team and I saw several times a game when Yang was flat-footed and non-reactive while an opposing player grabbed a rebound right next to Yang. Meanwhile, we know rebounding is Grant's biggest weakness

Yang is a much bigger project than Clingan was; meaning he's need players on the floor that will cover his flaws. I think the only way Yang averages 20 minutes or more is if both Clingan and Timelord are injured. Now, that's certainly not outside the realm of possibility, especially with Timelord. You also need to keep in mind that with all of the small-ball lineups just about every team employs, there won't be 48 minutes a game for two plodding drop-coverage C's like Clingan/Yang. About that 20 minute mark, keep in mind that last season, Clingan averaged less than 20 minutes

[DusterBuster]

Locked on Blazers had a full discussion about the starting lineup on Day 1.

Watch on YouTube

Essentially what we are all saying. 4 pretty clear locked in starters in Jrue, Tou, Deni and Clingan. According to Marang, he's gotten some pushback from the organization about Jrue starting - team claims it'll be a true play win's out scenario... butttttttt most likely is what everyone expects for Jrue to start at PG or SG. Only real spot open is that 5th spot between Grant, Sharpe and Scoot.

Basically what I said is what they agreed with:

What I want... Jrue, Sharp, Tou, Deni, Clingan

What I really want... Scoot, Sharp, Tou, Deni, Clingan

What I realistically think it'll be... Jrue, Tou, Deni, Grant, Clingan

The host, Mike Richman, is with my viewpoint in that "what the friendship are we doing here that we aren't creating an environment for a Top 3 pick to get a starting role in year 3..." Not worried about minutes, but Shae and Scoot should be starting.

This is a really "interesting" season. They're not necessarily deep in talent, but deep in "fun". If Yang is your backup center... are you really that deep talentwise? But we all want to see Yang play cause he's so fun to watch - but might not lead to wins. But the team should be playing their ass on night in and night out, and we've seen in the history of the league that a "talent-deficient" team can actually win a good amount of games (36-42) by just playing together and playing hard.

[Norm2953]

Knowing the Blazers, injuries will decide who plays

[DusterBuster]

Knowing the Blazers, injuries will decide who plays

Of course. This is true for every team. Until all of us know the future tho, we just gotta assume a largely healthy roster for discussions.

[dckingsfan]

Locked on Blazers had a full discussion about the starting lineup on Day 1.

Watch on YouTube

Essentially what we are all saying. 4 pretty clear locked in starters in Jrue, Tou, Deni and Clingan. According to Marang, he's gotten some pushback from the organization about Jrue starting - team claims it'll be a true play win's out scenario... butttttttt most likely is what everyone expects for Jrue to start at PG or SG. Only real spot open is that 5th spot between Grant, Sharpe and Scoot.

Basically what I said is what they agreed with:

What I want... Jrue, Sharp, Tou, Deni, Clingan

What I really want... Scoot, Sharp, Tou, Deni, Clingan

What I realistically think it'll be... Jrue, Tou, Deni, Grant, Clingan

The host, Mike Richman, is with my viewpoint in that "what the friendship are we doing here that we aren't creating an environment for a Top 3 pick to get a starting role in year 3..." Not worried about minutes, but Shae and Scoot should be starting.

This is a really "interesting" season. They're not necessarily deep in talent, but deep in "fun". If Yang is your backup center... are you really that deep talentwise? But we all want to see Yang play cause he's so fun to watch - but might not lead to wins. But the team should be playing their ass on night in and night out, and we've seen in the history of the league that a "talent-deficient" team can actually win a good amount of games (36-42) by just playing together and playing hard.

I like the quote - they are deep in fun, they aren't deep.

[Walton1one]

The starting line up (Holiday-Camara-Grant-Avdija-Clingan) seems pretty assured IMO, as long as Billups is coach.

What I find shocking is that Dalano Banton has not found a home yet?

[DusterBuster]

What I find shocking is that Dalano Banton has not found a home yet?

The absolute death of the value of score-first guard/wing guys is something super interesting. Gone are the days of teams even remotely valuing those types of Jamal Crawford "heater" kind of players. Not just a Banton thing, look at what the value has been for these types of players when you look at what Norm Powell was traded for this summer after having a great season, we saw (and continue to see) Simons have pretty subpar trade value even on an expiring deal, no one seems all that interested in Tyler Herro... teams just don't want to see to have these "great scorer, mid to bad at everything else" kind of players anymore.

[Butter]

from what I saw in SL, and what I've seen for 3 seasons from Grant, if Yang & Grant are on the floor together as the C/PF, Portland will get crushed on the boards. It would be even worse on the offensive glass, and that's probably when the Blazers will be chucking up a lot of bricks. Yang was a poor rebounder in SL. And all the chatter about him blocking out instead of rebounding was a poor excuse. Portland was 25th in rebounding as a team and I saw several times a game when Yang was flat-footed and non-reactive while an opposing player grabbed a rebound right next to Yang. Meanwhile, we know rebounding is Grant's biggest weakness

Yang is a much bigger project than Clingan was; meaning he's need players on the floor that will cover his flaws. I think the only way Yang averages 20 minutes or more is if both Clingan and Timelord are injured. Now, that's certainly not outside the realm of possibility, especially with Timelord. You also need to keep in mind that with all of the small-ball lineups just about every team employs, there won't be 48 minutes a game for two plodding drop-coverage C's like Clingan/Yang. About that 20 minute mark, keep in mind that last season, Clingan averaged less than 20 minutes

To your point about Yangs rebounding, could they play Yang and Time lord together?

[Wizenheimer]

from what I saw in SL, and what I've seen for 3 seasons from Grant, if Yang & Grant are on the floor together as the C/PF, Portland will get crushed on the boards. It would be even worse on the offensive glass, and that's probably when the Blazers will be chucking up a lot of bricks. Yang was a poor rebounder in SL. And all the chatter about him blocking out instead of rebounding was a poor excuse. Portland was 25th in rebounding as a team and I saw several times a game when Yang was flat-footed and non-reactive while an opposing player grabbed a rebound right next to Yang. Meanwhile, we know rebounding is Grant's biggest weakness

Yang is a much bigger project than Clingan was; meaning he's need players on the floor that will cover his flaws. I think the only way Yang averages 20 minutes or more is if both Clingan and Timelord are injured. Now, that's certainly not outside the realm of possibility, especially with Timelord. You also need to keep in mind that with all of the small-ball lineups just about every team employs, there won't be 48 minutes a game for two plodding drop-coverage C's like Clingan/Yang. About that 20 minute mark, keep in mind that last season, Clingan averaged less than 20 minutes

To your point about Yangs rebounding, could they play Yang and Time lord together?

who knows....maybe a little when the opponent goes big. I think Timelord's accumulating injuries will be reducing his mobility. BBREF says he played some PF in Boston but that was when he was paired with Al Horford; and Horford, even 35 or 36, was probably more mobile than Yang will ever be. I'd also question if Timelord was actually playing PF rather than some hybrid C when Horford was on the floor. If Timelord can play a little PF, I'd rather see him paired with Clingan first

the problem with Clingan + Yang is that they are both the same type of slow-footed, lumbering C's. Drop Coverage C's. They can't play together. And Clingan is much better right now as a rebounder, especially on the offensive glass, as a rim protector, and as a paint defender.

[dckingsfan]

from what I saw in SL, and what I've seen for 3 seasons from Grant, if Yang & Grant are on the floor together as the C/PF, Portland will get crushed on the boards. It would be even worse on the offensive glass, and that's probably when the Blazers will be chucking up a lot of bricks. Yang was a poor rebounder in SL. And all the chatter about him blocking out instead of rebounding was a poor excuse. Portland was 25th in rebounding as a team and I saw several times a game when Yang was flat-footed and non-reactive while an opposing player grabbed a rebound right next to Yang. Meanwhile, we know rebounding is Grant's biggest weakness

Yang is a much bigger project than Clingan was; meaning he's need players on the floor that will cover his flaws. I think the only way Yang averages 20 minutes or more is if both Clingan and Timelord are injured. Now, that's certainly not outside the realm of possibility, especially with Timelord. You also need to keep in mind that with all of the small-ball lineups just about every team employs, there won't be 48 minutes a game for two plodding drop-coverage C's like Clingan/Yang. About that 20 minute mark, keep in mind that last season, Clingan averaged less than 20 minutes

To your point about Yangs rebounding, could they play Yang and Time lord together?

who knows....maybe a little when the opponent goes big. I think Timelord's accumulating injuries will be reducing his mobility. BBREF says he played some PF in Boston but that was when he was paired with Al Horford; and Horford, even 35 or 36, was probably more mobile than Yang will ever be. I'd also question if Timelord was actually playing PF rather than some hybrid C when Horford was on the floor. If Timelord can play a little PF, I'd rather see him paired with Clingan first

the problem with Clingan + Yang is that they are both the same type of slow-footed, lumbering C's. Drop Coverage C's. They can't play together. And Clingan is much better right now as a rebounder, especially on the offensive glass, as a rim protector, and as a paint defender.

Yes, Clingan and Yang shouldn't be on the court at the same time. And yes, we are going to need to wait a couple of seasons to see what both Clingan and Yang will become.

And yes, pencil in Clingan as a solid defensive anchor especially with Camara and Deni on the court with him (as well as Drew and Thybulle). I am not worried about the defense at all. Clingan's DRB% 26.1, BLK% 7.5 was really good last year and that is just going to get better in his second season as a 21 year old.

For Clingan, offensive is the question, if he can he make even a small jump there he will be really helpful. His TO% is way to high and he has nothing outside of point blank thus far. If he can get his TS% above .600, cut down on turnovers and improve his screening, he will be more that fine.

AND stay healthy and be on the court for 28+ minutes per game.

Yang - I don't expect him to play much this season. I will be shocked if he hits 800 minutes unless some bad injuries happen. He is going to struggle defensively early on... but he likes to bang, so I have hopes for another decent drop big. So, I think he is kind of irrelevant to how the Blazers do this season. If he progresses - he could be enormously helpful next season.

The backup bigs this season will be problematic. How are we going to get 1500+ minutes out of Yang, Williams and Reath - I have no idea. And we didn't bring in a PF that could help with small ball.