borgradr wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Its hard to answer this question because a lot can change in a year and a half. Caron Butler probably wouldn't have been worth max money a year and a half ago but now is arguably on a quite reasonable contract at $9 million per. What if Marvin Williams were to blow up and decide he wants to come back out west and play on a great team in his old neck of the woods?
Another thing, cap space in 2009 could also be cap space in 2010, the idea of having financial flexibility and a really good, well-tuned core seems pretty darned appealing to me. If Pritchard thinks its a good idea, I'm inclined to believe him (I've yet to hear him lie to the media).
In the end I don't think Joel's impact on the team, especially with Oden coming in, is enough to warrant keeping him. I appreciate what he brings but his game is just too limited.
about Pryzbilla: what he gives the blazers is a big man option. Considering the contracts of other big men in the league, Joel's is not over-sized. He's also rebounding at the 7th best rate in the NBA. And until we actually see how Oden performs, it would be prudent to keep Joel. If's he's a necessary component in a trade that makes portland unquestionably better, so be it.
about cap space in 2010: NO. Portland won't play the game with Roy and Aldridge that Chicago is playing with Deng and Gordon. The Blazers will lock their core up long-term as soon as they can, and for roy and aldridge, that's the summer of 2009. That will effectively eliminate cap-space as a team building option for a long time. Not only roy and aldridge, but outlaw and blake may need new contracts in 2010 as well.
Finally, specific free agents: the biggest thing I despise about the cap-space plan is it's speculative nature. I understand about risk/reward, but the list of players whose contracts definitely end in 2009 isn't long or impressive. The list expands when you add in the players that have ETO's and player options in 08/09 & 09/10, but there's no certainty or guarantee that any of those players will be available, or is so, actually interested in portland. So I think there's a real chance that portland could make moves this summer strictly of a salary dump nature, and end up competing with several other teams having more cap-space then portland, in a FA market having a limited group of free agents.
The fly in the cap-space ointment, has been, and will remain, Darius Miles.
I think portland's FO was probably hoping for a medical retirement, but that appears out of the question now. And trading Miles for an expiring will be extremely difficult. About the best portland could hope for would be to get 3-5 million of his contract off the books in a smaller retiring contract. But that will require a package that would likely include players like jack, webster, and frye plus a draft pick or 2. That's a steep price for speculation.
Sorry 
