mojomarc wrote:
Just like Steve Nash, right? He was a .374 shooter his third year in the league--his career average is now up to .485 because he has gotten above .500 for the last several years. Martell takes most of his shots from the three point line, so perhaps he's following three point shooting stats instead--like Michael Jordan, who was a .182 three point shooter in his third season, but over his career was nearly twice as likely as he was in his third season to convert a three point attempt. Kobe Bryant had his worst three point shooting season in his third season by almost 50 points. There are plenty of other examples of players who had not peaked by their third seasons, but instead cratered.
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and exactly what evidence do you have that says Martell will become a much better shooter then he is now?? His improvement over nearly 3 seasons is marginal at best, and it started below .400
and your steve nash comparison is bogus. Steve Nash's 3rd year...I wonder why you picked that one.
That .374 number was 3pt shooting, not his overall FG% which is what I was talking about with Martell. Nash's .485 career number is his overall FG%. So you've confused the two different %'s.
Nash only played in 40 games his 3rd season...the strike season I believe. Not only did he shoot .374 from 3pt range, he only shot .363 overall.
But that year was a total abberration for Nash shootingwise, and I'm surprised you'd put that year forward as an argument since it's such a weak one.
That was the only year that Nash has ever shot below 40% from 3pt range. Nash's career 3pt % is .429 which is 17 points higher then Martell's overall FG %. As a matter of fact, in 8 of Nash's 12 seasons he has shot a better 3pt % then martell's best overall FG% season...this one.
Meanwhile, sandwiched on either side of nash's abberrative season of .363 was a 2nd season of .459 and a 4th season of .477. And as a further note, Martell will have played close to the total number of minutes after 3 seasons that Nash had after 4 seasons...the season that Nash shot .477. His .485 number isn't just because he's had seasons over .500, it's because except for that one abberration, Nash has shot .459 or better (rookie year .423).
And if you go through and look at the players considered 'good' shooters now, you'll be hard-pressed to find many who started below .400 in each of their first 2 seasons. Nash sure as hell didn't and neither did Jordan.
I pay more attention to overall FG% then 3pt% anyway, as I think that is more indicative of shooting consistency. And I just don't see players making big improvement gains in shooting percentage after their 3rd season. or even the 2nd season for that matter. Of course, it's also true that tracking players directly out of high school may have too small a sample size. But I don't know why they'd be exempt from the same general dynamics of college players entering the league.
mojomarc wrote:Now I'm not saying that Martell will ever be as good as Nash or Jordan or Kobe (it would be ludicrous at this point to think so), but saying that a player who would have been a junior in college this year has done all the improvement he will ever do as a basketball player is just silly. As I pointed out in another thread, Martell is basically playing as well as Brandon Roy did at Washington his junior year, only he's doing it against NBA talent. It wasn't until Brandon's senior year that he really exploded and became the player he is today. Even today, his TS% and eFG% are both higher than Brandon's, and yet we don't bitch about how poor of a shooter Brandon is.
now where exactly did I say "he's done all the improvement he will ever do as a basketball player"?
I never said that, never said anything close to that, and considering you've got on my case before about arguing points with people that they never actually made or said, I'd suggest the "silly" originated on your side of the point.
I was talking specifically about Martell's shooting ability. An ability that was advertised as phenomenal when he was drafted; an ability that is implied every time it's mentioned what a sweet stroke he has; and an ability that to this point has proven to be streaky and inconsistent.
To your other point, Brandon has given us a lot of reasons not to worry about his shooting, not the least of which is the fact that he's a 45% shooter compared to martell's 40.5%.
I've actually been complementary of martell's development in other areas of the game, and I'm encouraged by it.
As a matter of fact, when we were debating Martell a month or so ago in the context of the cap space plan, I suggested that Portland should extend martell's contract THIS summer if he'd settle for a reasonable amount.
I'm still in favor of that.
Nah--you're right. Martell has peaked, and there is no way in heck he can ever become a good shooter. Stick a fork in him--he's done.
I didn't say he's peaked and I didn't say "good shooter"...I said "great shooter" to be accurate, and there is a literal difference I suppose. He can continue to marginally improve for a few seasons and still not be a good or great shooter.
I would think 44-45% FG and 40% 3pt would qualify him as a good shooter. Maybe 47-50%FG and 43% 3pt would elevate him to great shooter. As long as it's sustained for a number of seasons.
For somebody with career numbers of 40% and 36% after nearly 3 seasons, it would probably be something close to an historical improvement just to reach the 'good' level.
