ImageImage

Webster: Being used totally wrong?

Moderators: Moonbeam, DeBlazerRiddem

Red Robot
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,351
And1: 127
Joined: Oct 12, 2005
 

 

Post#21 » by Red Robot » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:42 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:If a player is approaching the end of his 3rd season, and he's still right around 40% FG, it's time to conclude he'll never be a great shooter. The best to hope for is that he will be a streak shooter, and I'm not sure that's what portland needs from the SF position.

The fg% is deceptive because he takes so many threes. Factor that in, and only Jones, Blake, and Przybilla put up better percentages. And plenty of players have improved their percentages over the years. In fact, before this season Jones was under .400 in his career. Blake was well below .400 before he came to Portland. Not to mention Martell's younger right now than Blake and Jones when they entered the league.
Billy
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 12,623
And1: 161
Joined: Aug 14, 2001
 

 

Post#22 » by Billy » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:57 pm

I hope Martell continues to attack the rim like he did last night and forces Nate to play him in that role. His shot can create a lot of opportunities for him as defenders can't sag off him, and they risk being burned if they close on him too fast.

Last night was a beautiful spectacle of what Webster can do when he uses a more complete offensive arsenal. Maggette was burned on multiple occasions because he had to choose between giving the three up or giving up a drive.

Martell has all the signs of a great player, but I do tend to agree that Nate may not be utilizing him correctly in a lot of instances.
User avatar
c-mac 4.35
Sophomore
Posts: 119
And1: 0
Joined: Feb 27, 2008

 

Post#23 » by c-mac 4.35 » Thu Feb 28, 2008 8:00 pm

I know he can be a great player and trust me HE CAN SHOOT THE HELL OUTS DA BALL!
User avatar
mojomarc
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 16,838
And1: 999
Joined: Jun 01, 2004
Location: Funkytown

 

Post#24 » by mojomarc » Fri Feb 29, 2008 3:38 am

Wizenheimer wrote: In 3 of 4 months so far this season, Martell has shot under 40% from the floor. That's no surprise considering he entered the season as a sub-40% FG shooter career-wise. And he probably gets more open looks then any other blazer.

If a player is approaching the end of his 3rd season, and he's still right around 40% FG, it's time to conclude he'll never be a great shooter.


Just like Steve Nash, right? He was a .374 shooter his third year in the league--his career average is now up to .485 because he has gotten above .500 for the last several years. Martell takes most of his shots from the three point line, so perhaps he's following three point shooting stats instead--like Michael Jordan, who was a .182 three point shooter in his third season, but over his career was nearly twice as likely as he was in his third season to convert a three point attempt. Kobe Bryant had his worst three point shooting season in his third season by almost 50 points. There are plenty of other examples of players who had not peaked by their third seasons, but instead cratered.

Now I'm not saying that Martell will ever be as good as Nash or Jordan or Kobe (it would be ludicrous at this point to think so), but saying that a player who would have been a junior in college this year has done all the improvement he will ever do as a basketball player is just silly. As I pointed out in another thread, Martell is basically playing as well as Brandon Roy did at Washington his junior year, only he's doing it against NBA talent. It wasn't until Brandon's senior year that he really exploded and became the player he is today. Even today, his TS% and eFG% are both higher than Brandon's, and yet we don't bitch about how poor of a shooter Brandon is.

The issue with Martell is not that he won't ever be a good shooter, but that he is infuriatingly inconsistent. That is, however, a true characteristic of 21 year old basketball players in most cases. Plus, it's easy to compare him to players like James Jones and find him lacking. Funny thing about Jones, though--when he was the same age as Martell and still in college, he shot 133/332 for the season. Why, isn't it odd that he shot exactly 40% from the field against weaker competition at the same age? Also, notice that Jones, prior to this season's 46.7%, never shot better than .418 for a season prior, and that was the only season he actually was better than .400 before this year, when he blows up into one of the best outside shooters in the NBA. And he did it in his fifth season, not his third, and at six years older than Martell.

Nah--you're right. Martell has peaked, and there is no way in heck he can ever become a good shooter. Stick a fork in him--he's done.
Tim Lehrbach
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 26,057
And1: 4,313
Joined: Jul 29, 2001
   

 

Post#25 » by Tim Lehrbach » Fri Feb 29, 2008 4:19 am

Good answer, mojo. It's a response of sorts to my post in the other thread.

I'd like to be patient with Martell, but I'd also like to see the Blazers have better players.

It's a difficult balance.
Clipsz 4 Life
January 20, 2002-May 17, 2006
Saxon
February 20, 2001-August 9, 2007
Wizenheimer
RealGM
Posts: 36,228
And1: 7,983
Joined: May 28, 2007

 

Post#26 » by Wizenheimer » Fri Feb 29, 2008 6:47 am

mojomarc wrote:

Just like Steve Nash, right? He was a .374 shooter his third year in the league--his career average is now up to .485 because he has gotten above .500 for the last several years. Martell takes most of his shots from the three point line, so perhaps he's following three point shooting stats instead--like Michael Jordan, who was a .182 three point shooter in his third season, but over his career was nearly twice as likely as he was in his third season to convert a three point attempt. Kobe Bryant had his worst three point shooting season in his third season by almost 50 points. There are plenty of other examples of players who had not peaked by their third seasons, but instead cratered.

.




and exactly what evidence do you have that says Martell will become a much better shooter then he is now?? His improvement over nearly 3 seasons is marginal at best, and it started below .400

and your steve nash comparison is bogus. Steve Nash's 3rd year...I wonder why you picked that one.

That .374 number was 3pt shooting, not his overall FG% which is what I was talking about with Martell. Nash's .485 career number is his overall FG%. So you've confused the two different %'s.

Nash only played in 40 games his 3rd season...the strike season I believe. Not only did he shoot .374 from 3pt range, he only shot .363 overall.

But that year was a total abberration for Nash shootingwise, and I'm surprised you'd put that year forward as an argument since it's such a weak one.

That was the only year that Nash has ever shot below 40% from 3pt range. Nash's career 3pt % is .429 which is 17 points higher then Martell's overall FG %. As a matter of fact, in 8 of Nash's 12 seasons he has shot a better 3pt % then martell's best overall FG% season...this one.

Meanwhile, sandwiched on either side of nash's abberrative season of .363 was a 2nd season of .459 and a 4th season of .477. And as a further note, Martell will have played close to the total number of minutes after 3 seasons that Nash had after 4 seasons...the season that Nash shot .477. His .485 number isn't just because he's had seasons over .500, it's because except for that one abberration, Nash has shot .459 or better (rookie year .423).

And if you go through and look at the players considered 'good' shooters now, you'll be hard-pressed to find many who started below .400 in each of their first 2 seasons. Nash sure as hell didn't and neither did Jordan.

I pay more attention to overall FG% then 3pt% anyway, as I think that is more indicative of shooting consistency. And I just don't see players making big improvement gains in shooting percentage after their 3rd season. or even the 2nd season for that matter. Of course, it's also true that tracking players directly out of high school may have too small a sample size. But I don't know why they'd be exempt from the same general dynamics of college players entering the league.

mojomarc wrote:Now I'm not saying that Martell will ever be as good as Nash or Jordan or Kobe (it would be ludicrous at this point to think so), but saying that a player who would have been a junior in college this year has done all the improvement he will ever do as a basketball player is just silly. As I pointed out in another thread, Martell is basically playing as well as Brandon Roy did at Washington his junior year, only he's doing it against NBA talent. It wasn't until Brandon's senior year that he really exploded and became the player he is today. Even today, his TS% and eFG% are both higher than Brandon's, and yet we don't bitch about how poor of a shooter Brandon is.



now where exactly did I say "he's done all the improvement he will ever do as a basketball player"?

I never said that, never said anything close to that, and considering you've got on my case before about arguing points with people that they never actually made or said, I'd suggest the "silly" originated on your side of the point.

I was talking specifically about Martell's shooting ability. An ability that was advertised as phenomenal when he was drafted; an ability that is implied every time it's mentioned what a sweet stroke he has; and an ability that to this point has proven to be streaky and inconsistent.

To your other point, Brandon has given us a lot of reasons not to worry about his shooting, not the least of which is the fact that he's a 45% shooter compared to martell's 40.5%.

I've actually been complementary of martell's development in other areas of the game, and I'm encouraged by it.

As a matter of fact, when we were debating Martell a month or so ago in the context of the cap space plan, I suggested that Portland should extend martell's contract THIS summer if he'd settle for a reasonable amount.

I'm still in favor of that.

Nah--you're right. Martell has peaked, and there is no way in heck he can ever become a good shooter. Stick a fork in him--he's done.


I didn't say he's peaked and I didn't say "good shooter"...I said "great shooter" to be accurate, and there is a literal difference I suppose. He can continue to marginally improve for a few seasons and still not be a good or great shooter.

I would think 44-45% FG and 40% 3pt would qualify him as a good shooter. Maybe 47-50%FG and 43% 3pt would elevate him to great shooter. As long as it's sustained for a number of seasons.

For somebody with career numbers of 40% and 36% after nearly 3 seasons, it would probably be something close to an historical improvement just to reach the 'good' level.
User avatar
c-mac 4.35
Sophomore
Posts: 119
And1: 0
Joined: Feb 27, 2008

 

Post#27 » by c-mac 4.35 » Fri Feb 29, 2008 5:01 pm

OK any one can can improve no matter how old you are... i hate how people say, his upside is bad because well if any one has the work ethic you can improve!

Look at B-roy, he had a limited upside and he's shown his wok ethic and has improved greatly
valleyman33
Junior
Posts: 277
And1: 40
Joined: Aug 11, 2004
Location: Salem
   

 

Post#28 » by valleyman33 » Fri Feb 29, 2008 5:24 pm

Maybe I'm wrong, but I always thought you open up lanes to the basket, by actually hitting your outside shots consistently. If you are not hitting outside shots, or if you are a "streaky" shooter, doesn't the defense lay back and wait blocking drives to the basket until you hit some outside shots?
It seems to me, Martell is getting lots of open shots, just not hitting them with any consistency. The coach can call plays for a player all night long, but if you don't take advantage of your opportunites, whose fault is it?
:)

Return to Portland Trail Blazers