Ellis to Memphis, Conley available?

[Telfaire]

There's a rumor that the Grizzlies are targeting Ellis for this summer...I think he would form a good backcourt with Crittenton, whereas with Conley it would be a midget backcourt...so, Memphis might be willing to trade him? it would have to be after the draft, though. Maybe a 3-way with the Warriors, since Ellis is RFA?

[Village Idiot]

I'm not high on Conley at all. I can see why they're high on Ellis but it seems a bit eary to give up on Conley.

[SabasRevenge!]

I guess the question is 'how much is Ellis worth?' Would GS match a max offer to him? I don't see GS letting him go for nothing. It seems like they're looking at Monta as part of their future along with Biedrins, Wright, and possibly Belinelli. Since we obviously wouldn't give up any of the big 3 for Conley, would it be worth it to give up Outlaw, who would match salary-wise? Would Memphis consider Jack, Frye, and a 1st? In any case, I would be pretty surprised if GS doesn't lock up Monta for themselves.

[SalemStoner]

this brings up a good question imo

is there any paticular reason we never consider Ellis among the combo guards we could be targeting to play PG? Now that I actually think about it, Ellis would be a great fit next to Roy imo...

[Spykes]

Theres only 2 ways I'm interested in getting Conley.

One is if we can find a way to get him in a straight up swap for our pick. At pick 13, I'm not sure if there's any PG who has as much potential as him. Now, seeing as Portland is over the cap, they can't take on Conley without giving up some kind of salary, so calling this a "straight up swap" is a bit misleading. I think the best way to go about this deal is to find a team under the cap (Philly could be a good target) and trade both Jack and Frye to them for a 3.5 mil TE. Then make a second deal of our pick and the TE for Conley. In reality, this deal is Jack + Frye + our pick for Conley, but I still think that would be an acceptable deal. Neither Jack or Frye our in our longterm plans and if their contracts are still on the books in the summer of 09, both players will have a large cap hold (along with Webster) that will severely hinder their attempts to sign a FA. The only way to get rid of this cap hold is to either sign them to contacts (longterm or the QA) or waive their right and let them become UFA. Portland would be better off finding a way to get rid of them before the 09 summer if cap space is still the "big picture plan".

The other idea, which completely goes against the "big picture cap space plan", is to take on a bunch of salary from the Grizzlies. Basically, Cardinal + Miller + Conley for Raef + Frye + Webster + Pick. Might not hurt to throw Jack in there as well. This deal shores up a lot of problems for the Blazers. Pinning their PG hopes on Conley is a bit of a risk, but they get a really good SF Miller. Losing Webster hurts, but it takes talent to get talent. The ending roster looks really good...

Conley/Blake/Sergio
Roy/Fernandez
Miller/Jones/Cardinal
Aldridge/Outlaw/McRoberts
Oden/Przybilla

And as you can see, we'd still have 2 open roster spots, maybe for a few 2nd round picks.

[Fitz303]

this brings up a good question imo

is there any paticular reason we never consider Ellis among the combo guards we could be targeting to play PG? Now that I actually think about it, Ellis would be a great fit next to Roy imo...

There isnt a single player in the NBA that would fit better next to Roy than Ellis.. Unfortunately its pretty much a pipe dream that we get him

[Village Idiot]

I don't think Ellis would be that great a fit next to Roy. For one, he can't shoot the 3 so he'd only clog the lane.

Personally I'd take Eric Gordon, Jayred Bayless or Especially OJ Mayo over Monta Ellis.

[Walton'sBeard!]

I agree with VI. In 3 seasons he is a 28% 3pt shooter, and seemingly getting worse. If he were going to have range he would have showed it by now. And I wonder how will he'd fit into a halfcourt system.

Not that I'd be upset if Portland traded for Ellis, but I think there are options that fit better.

[Spykes]

Ellis isn't a great 3pt shooter, but he is a great 18 foot jump shooter. The mid-range jump shot can help extend the defense and unclog the lanes just as well as a 3pt sharp shooter.

I'd LOVE to have Ellis in Portland, but as Fitz said, he's a pipe dream.

[Khazim]

Ellis doesn't fit my requirement of a good defender, but other than that he'd be pretty good.

[JD45]

Ellis is a poor defender, so not my choice as well given how much he would cost.

With Roy, LMA and Oden, the Blazers will have plenty of scoring. Additional starters need to be good defenders, and able to hit open shots. But they don't need to be able create their own offense.

Conley could be a good value pickup. He will probably not be a SuperStar, but he certainly looks like he is going to be a solid PG. It will all depend on how the lottery plays out, but he needs to be closely watched to see if he becomes available. According to 82games.com, Memphis' offense is better with him on the floor, but much worse defensively. However, rookies often struggle on defense, so I am not overly concerned.

LaFrentz + Frye + #13 for Conley + Collins + Cardinal probably gets the deal done if Memphis is going to pick Rose.

[Fitz303]

I fear many here dont watch monta other than when the Blazers play GSW.. What is the one thing this teams backcourt needs? the ability to break down offenses. What does Monta do? Just that. The kid gets to the hoop and finishes. Hes also a damn good rebounder for his size as well. Hes not a great defender and hes not a great 3 pt shooter, but thats what Blake and Jones are there for. We need a guy next to Roy who has the ability to penetrate and make guys play them both straight up. He kind of reminds me of Tony Parker but finishes more above the rim.

How many guards have a .533 FG%?? Not very many.. Only Josh Childress and Ronnie Brewer have better FG% for guards than Monta, and Calderon is right behind him.. It wont happen, but wow that would be a scary backcourt

[Walton'sBeard!]

Well Fitz, again I am not trying to bash Ellis but...

I've seen him play a dozen or so times this year and I think he gets a lot of wide open layups and dunks caused by his speed and GS's frenetic play style. I really doubt he'd shoot over 50% as a Blazer.

Furthermore, if Ellis were in Portland he'd be playing 30+ minutes a night. That would be 30+ minutes of having a guard on the court that cannot stretch the defense out to the 3pt line. Yes, having Jones at SF would help, but Blake would rarely play the same time as Roy and Ellis.

Would I be happy if Portland swung a deal for Ellis? Absolutely. He's just not the ideal fit in my opinion.

[Fitz303]

I see where youre coming from with his shortcomings, I just dont think they would be that big of a deal on this team. His defense doesnt need to be stellar as long as the other 4 on the court are good (as they usually are). As Spykes said, Ellis is still a very good mid range shooter which keeps his opponents honest. While he does get a lot of his easy points due to GSWs style of play like you said, he uses his quickness in the halfcourt and still gets to the hoop.

I just dont see anyone better to fill in next to Roy. If all we need is 3pt shooting and defending, well we have our PG of the future already starting. Unfortunately he is missing what we need most, and thats the ability to get EASY BUCKETS.. We dont get them by anybody but Roy, and sometimes Jack.

If Ellis was on this team and his man tried to sag off of him to go double Roy, Roy would hit Ellis and he would be on his way to the rim for an easy bucket, or a handoff to one of the bigs when their man has to come over and try and stop Ellis because Ellis' man tried to go help on Roy. Ellis is too quick for his man to try and move off of him and then try and get back in time when the ball swings over to him

But more on the topic of the thread, I would be all for Conley as well, as long as it doesnt take too much. If we got Conley, I think KP would be investing in him as the future and the cap space plan would be all but over. Im not sure what it would take to get him, but I think he could thrive with the guys he would have around him

[Mr Odd]

I rather have Ellis then Conley but
I dont see either being a Blazer.. .

Ellis is a offensive minded guy that
gets much of his points on the open
court. Im not sure what that will do
once hes a Blazer, but I think hes a
type of player that would adpat his
game & still get his points. Im not
sure he is the typical break the
defense down type of guy but he
is very active & is always looking
to keep the defense on their heels.

[hkphooey]

What happens if Memphis gets the #2 pick? Do they need Monta Ellis then?

EDIT: I guess you could ask that if they get any pick from 2-4 assuming D. Rose, E. Gordon and Bayless are the BPA's at those spots. Hope they do so we can go PG shopping with the Grizz!

[Effigy]

I would move the 13 for Conley, but nothing else. Certianly not Frye. He's a good backup big. For the salary cap room, we can just resign Von Wafer to a 1 year deal and deal him for Conley with the pick. Worst case scenario I would move Jack and the 13 for Conley, Maybe send Jack to a team that needs a PG and let them send something to Memphis.

[Spykes]

I would move the 13 for Conley, but nothing else. Certianly not Frye. He's a good backup big. For the salary cap room, we can just resign Von Wafer to a 1 year deal and deal him for Conley with the pick. Worst case scenario I would move Jack and the 13 for Conley, Maybe send Jack to a team that needs a PG and let them send something to Memphis.

It's my understanding that we'd have to send something to Memphis to do a #13 for Conley deal. Since we're over the cap, we still have to match salary somehow.

There might be a potential of doing 2 deals. The Sixers should be well under the cap this summer and as of right now, it looks like they're primed to make the playoffs. I think we could swing a deal with them where we send Jack and Frye to Philly for a TE and their 1st round pick (currently projected to be #16). We then turn around and trade the TE and our own #13 pick to Memphis for Conley Jr.

Basically, the deal boils down to Frye + Jack + 13 for Conley + 16. Now, while you said you didn't want to move Frye, I do think it's important to note the cap implications for holding onto both Jack and Frye (and Webster for that matter). Any player who has a Qualifying Offer option in the summer of 09 (as Jack, Frye and Webster do) is going to severely hurt the Blazers FA hopes because of their cap holds. Wizen can explain how the cap holds work better than I can, but needless to say, they'll tie up all of the Blazers FA money until the Blazers either resign them or renounce them. So, long story short, moving Frye and Jack for a TE to get Conley might not be such a bad idea.

[Wizenheimer]

It's my understanding that we'd have to send something to Memphis to do a #13 for Conley deal. Since we're over the cap, we still have to match salary somehow.

There might be a potential of doing 2 deals. The Sixers should be well under the cap this summer and as of right now, it looks like they're primed to make the playoffs. I think we could swing a deal with them where we send Jack and Frye to Philly for a TE and their 1st round pick (currently projected to be #16). We then turn around and trade the TE and our own #13 pick to Memphis for Conley Jr.

Basically, the deal boils down to Frye + Jack + 13 for Conley + 16. Now, while you said you didn't want to move Frye, I do think it's important to note the cap implications for holding onto both Jack and Frye (and Webster for that matter). Any player who has a Qualifying Offer option in the summer of 09 (as Jack, Frye and Webster do) is going to severely hurt the Blazers FA hopes because of their cap holds. Wizen can explain how the cap holds work better than I can, but needless to say, they'll tie up all of the Blazers FA money until the Blazers either resign them or renounce them. So, long story short, moving Frye and Jack for a TE to get Conley might not be such a bad idea.

The cap hold issue is fairly simple. The governing CBA rule is that for players who have just completed their 4th year of the rookie contract, and have a salary less then the average salary, their cap hold is 300% of the just completed season's salary. Combined, Webster, Frye, and Jack will have applied cap holds of around 26 million dollars.

As far as your trade proposal, it's interesting. The first 'issue' is would Philly be willing to take on the additional salaries of Frye and Jack? It would subtract more then 5 million from their cap space. And they will be dealing with Iggy and his 300% cap hold requirement (but that would be much less then his 'new' contract). Glancing at their salaries, the 5 million impact of Frye and Jack would take them from around 17-20 million in cap space to 12-15 million. They may not be willing to take that kind of hit. And they certainly won't if they are targeting a max-contract type player.

The second issue may be one of timing. Next years salaries don't start till July...after the draft. So, at the time of the draft, the 76ers won't have any cap space. There is probably no rule to prevent the teams from agreeing to a future (two weeks) trade in principle and making draft selections for each other. So it may not be a significant issue.

And then of course comes the question of is Conley really worth frye, jack, and dropping 3 places in the lottery? Looking at the game logs, Kyle Lowry is clearly outplaying him. Maybe portland should target Lowry instead. He comes at 1/3 the price of Conley. See if Philly would trade the #16 for jack, then see if Memphis would trade Lowry for the #16.

[Spykes]

Timing was the big thing I wasn't sure about with that idea.