James Jones likely to opt out this year

[Wizenheimer]

I appreciate Jones' contribution this year....but as long as wer'e keeping Webster, him and Outlaw should be aheah of Jones at SF. So why waste capspace on him?
Dont forget, with Oden's coming back, LMA would play less center and more at PF, which means Outlaw's PT would need to be divided about equally between the 2 forward positions.

I agree with your general assessment of the impending playing time crunch.

I've been thinking and saying for a while now I didn't think portland could keep all three of outlaw, webster, and jones. And now, with Miles possibly retiring, Portland can reach maximum contract level cap space by 'dumping' either webster or jones.

I do believe Jones would be the better player for the blazers to keep, but as others have said, his knee issues and the difference between his age and martell's evens things out quite a bit.

Jones could make the decision easier if he demands too much money though.

[PDXKnight]

I do believe Jones would be the better player for the blazers to keep, but as others have said, his knee issues and the difference between his age and martell's evens things out quite a bit.

Jones could make the decision easier if he demands too much money though.

I agree that Jones would be the better of the two to keep but as you said, his knee problems should be taken into consideration. Also, let's not forget that Martell has more value and the Blazers might be able to get a very nice return for Martell. The money issue is a concern as well, and I take back my initial statement that he's worth the MLE, he's probably worth around 4.5 million at best, and if he does get more, it would make sense for the Blazers to let him go (as hard as it would be). Rudy will fill in some of the void next season which would make it easier to lose Jones, though I'm not sure how good of a 3 pt. shooter Rudy Will be in the NBA.

[ebott]

It's also entirely possible that Jones isn't opting out with the idea that he's gonna get TONS more money. It could be that he's opting out so he can get some more security.

Here's my logic:

If he opts out this year maybe we re-sign him for a 6 year deal starting at 3 mil. Not a lot more per year, but he knows he's got a sure 18+ mil coming to him over the next 6 years.

If he doesn't opt out he's an expiring contract and there's the danger that he ends up lumping himself together with the Outlaw, Jack, etc. group that is viewed as dump-able if we get a bead on a top notch free agent next off-season. Let's say he does want to re-sign with the team and we want to re-sign him. But we wanna get that top notch free agent first. It's very easy to get lost in the shuffle when your team has higher priorities.

So even if he doesn't plan on getting tons of money or jumping ship to a contender it's still a smart move for him opt out.

[Dogmont]

What Jones brings is a calmness and leadership presence to a young team that needs it. Roy does too, but not quite the same. It would be a sad day to lose him, but I think he knows that he has a great chance at a ring or several if he stays, so he will. 4 mil. tops, however....

[PDXKnight]

It's also entirely possible that Jones isn't opting out with the idea that he's gonna get TONS more money. It could be that he's opting out so he can get some more security.

Here's my logic:

If he opts out this year maybe we re-sign him for a 6 year deal starting at 3 mil. Not a lot more per year, but he knows he's got a sure 18+ mil coming to him over the next 6 years.

If he doesn't opt out he's an expiring contract and there's the danger that he ends up lumping himself together with the Outlaw, Jack, etc. group that is viewed as dump-able if we get a bead on a top notch free agent next off-season. Let's say he does want to re-sign with the team and we want to re-sign him. But we wanna get that top notch free agent first. It's very easy to get lost in the shuffle when your team has higher priorities.

So even if he doesn't plan on getting tons of money or jumping ship to a contender it's still a smart move for him opt out.

Very good point, I hadn't though about that. As far as salary issues go, they could always have a 5-10% annual increase in his contract if he does in fact want more money and could always work in the 09' capspace plan with a decrease, then increase in salary. I'm thinking something like this:

2008: 3.8 million
2009: 3.4 million
2010: 3.8 million
2011: 4.2 million
2012: 4.6 million
2013: 5.1 million

[NBAMAN2006]

He is a must re-sign. I would absolutley give him a contract like the above one.

I also think he really likes it here, and is glad he was pursued by Portland. I can see the 'Pryzbilla' effect taking place.

[Wizenheimer]

-= original quote snipped =-



Very good point, I hadn't though about that. As far as salary issues go, they could always have a 5-10% annual increase in his contract if he does in fact want more money and could always work in the 09' capspace plan with a decrease, then increase in salary. I'm thinking something like this:

2008: 3.8 million
2009: 3.4 million
2010: 3.8 million
2011: 4.2 million
2012: 4.6 million
2013: 5.1 million

if jones is willing to use the blake and outlaw contracts as 'templates' then those numbers are fine.

If he uses Kapono's contract, things could get dicey.

[NBAMAN2006]

Consitering his knee problems, I doubt he gets offered the full MLE.

[PDXKnight]

-= original quote snipped =-



if jones is willing to use the blake and outlaw contracts as 'templates' then those numbers are fine.

If he uses Kapono's contract, things could get dicey.

Blazers management will have to cross their fingers if they offer him a deal in that ballpark, but hopefully teams don't go crazy for him (which is quite possible).

[Jsun947]

Jones has bad by far his best year. Hes going to look for security. He knows hes not going to get an absurd contract but he can get locked into a long one by just about any club.

I have a feeling Prichard will probably give him a similar deal as Blake and Outlaw. Somewhere around 12 million over 3 years, which is what he deserves.

This team needs him... Badly.

[Jsun947]

It should be noted that Jones' return from this last injury coincided with Aldridge's recent good play. Both happened in that Laker game.

If someone else wants to take the time to analyze stats on how often they play together and how they perform together, go ahead. But on a game-by-game basis, Aldridge got better when Jones came back.

And it makes logical sense. Aldridge has been going inside more; Jones is the only true shooter whom defense have to respect. It stretches the defense.

Unless Martell, Travis, or Roy become true deep shooting threats, the team needs a bomber like Jones.

I did analyze the stats. According to the stats Aldridge plays almost identicle to his season averages when Jones plays in the same game as when Jones does not.

We have 17 Losses, and 22 wins in that scenario..

[ebott]

The more I think about it the more I don't care if we offer Jones 3 mil or 5 mil. Is that extra 2 mil gonna make that much of a difference?

I don't think so. But having Jones or not having Jones could mean the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. Maybe that's a ridiculous statement. With Oden, Aldridge and Roy together we'll probably make the playoffs regardless of the supporting cast.

[PDXKnight]

The more I think about it the more I don't care if we offer Jones 3 mil or 5 mil. Is that extra 2 mil gonna make that much of a difference?

I don't think so. But having Jones or not having Jones could mean the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. Maybe that's a ridiculous statement. With Oden, Aldridge and Roy together we'll probably make the playoffs regardless of the supporting cast.

No, its far from a ridiculous statement. The Blazers have been in need of a 3 pt shooter for years now and James Jones has proven that he is more than capable than playing that role. Even with the big three in the picture, Jones's role would still be very important. Also, you can't overlook the team's record with/without him. The Blazers have clearly played better basketball when he's played.

[swede]

I think you've all raised some really valid points, and I'm generally convinced him opting out could not be such a bad thing if we get him locked up to a three year deal, fourth optional.

[Effigy]

I think we'll resign him, but I think it will be a long deal, like 5 years. Doing so will allow us to offer him less money per year and thus create more money in the 09 signing period. If we sign him at 5 years starting at $3 million per, then next year he'd only be at like $3.25 milion cap hit, wheras by the end of his contract when the cap space isn't an issue, he'll be around $5 million.

[tester551]

Will Portland have Jones' bird rights - or would they have to resign him using a portion of the MLE?

I see that as the BIG issue on if Jones is re-signed or not....

[d-train]

Since Blazers are trying to create cap space in 2009, they need to be prudent with contract offers between now and 7/2009. If Jones opts out this summer, Blazers have to evaluate all options other than signing Jones. Last summer Spurs signed Ime Udoka to a 2-year/$2 million contract. If I could choose between Ime Udoka at 2 years/$2 million and James Jones for 3-years/$10 million, I would take Ime all 1000 times.

[d-train]

Will Portland have Jones' bird rights - or would they have to resign him using a portion of the MLE?

I see that as the BIG issue on if Jones is re-signed or not....

They have bird rights but I don't think it