Greg Oden

[EGame]

Okay let me just aplogize ahead of time if there has been a thread recently related to this thread. If this is the case feel free to close it.

As for the topic in hand, I am still kind of sour from last nights loss and in a way, I just kind of want to look forward to next year (I hope Rudy decides he wants to play in the NBA). As for Greg Oden, I have a question on his impact on the Offensive side of the ball. After last nights loss, it got me wondering, will we make a legit playoff run whether it is barley creeping in the playoffs or going deep in the playoffs. I bring Oden in this because he essentially is going to be the reason we get in or do not IMO.

I have two questions: How many ppg and rpg will you consider a succesful season for Oden (and note even if he does not meet your expectations, that does not mean he is considered a bust in just his first season), and how many ppg and rpg do you think he needs in order for us to make a run at and in the playoffs? I really feel as if the playoffs rests in his hands and with that said, I think he will be able to average at least 16 ppg (unless of course someone liek Aldridge avergaes like 25+ ppg) and I think he will be able to average at least 11 rpg. Do those stats seem realistic, should he and could he be able to average higher as far as points per game go, will he possibly score a little lower, and most importantly do you as a Blazer fan, believe that Oden can help us get into the playoffs next season?

Have a good day guys and remember, GO BLAZERS!

[Telfaire]

I dont think it depends only on Oden, and that we would make the playoff next season...too much competition. I would be content with a struggle to the very end of the regular season, and as for Oden's performance, I hope he stays healthy and out of foul trouble, and shows a more refined offensive game than what he would've displayed this season.

[Billy]

Personally I expect at least the same averages as he had in college.

16 ppg, 9.9 rebs, 3.3 blocks may sound like a lot to ask out of him, but I think he'll actually do better than that. I personally think he will take at least a few games to adjust to the game, and maybe a couple more to adjust to his freakin huge physique. I think ultimately by the end of the year his averages will be a bit deceiving and we'll be looking at trends instead.

What I mean is, I could see him maybe having a feeling out process to the NBA and visa versa which will have an impact on his stats. It just seems to me that it's a lot harder to bring an average up than it is to drop it. If Greg has a rough start it may make his stats look different than what they "seem" like they should be.

To answer the second part of your question, IMO he'll be getting 20/10 by the end of the year, and I think Portland needs that to go deep. I think Oden just being back there erasing 3.3 shots per game, and taking pressure of Aldridge and Roy will give Portland what they need to get to the playoffs. I don't think it's unreasonable at all (probably way too conservative) to add 6 or 7 wins to this years total. That would put Portland in the playoff picture.

I don't think Oden is a cure all. But I think he helps in most of the areas that Portland is pretty weak in this year. Defensively he'll help erase mistakes and take away second chance opportunities. Offensively he'll give the Blazers a means to get easy points and get the shooters extra chances. Just imagining the Blazers shooters getting 2-3 whacks on some possessions to score gives me goosebumps.

Portland will be able to grind out games better. Games like last night won't be killers as much because you'll have a guy that can get you easy's. He'll get the other team into foul trouble which opens up the game for everyone. He'll also be a buffet of goodness for the Blazers shooters. All you can eat wide open looks. All of that to me spells a playoff team with great potential to go deep.

[Red Robot]

I think the Blazers will be in the playoffs next season, and Oden will be a big part of that. There are still a lot of great teams in the west, so I don't think Portland will get a good seed or make it past the second round at best.

Assuming Oden starts, I'd say he needs to average more than 8 points and 8 rebounds per game for the Blazers to make the playoffs. A successful season would be anything more than 12 points per game. My guess is he scores 14 or 15 per game.

I think most of Oden's impact will come from his defense and isn't reflected in these stats. If he's DPOY from day one, anything else he does is just icing. If his inexperience makes him a defensive disaster for a year or two, he needs to be scoring to make up for it.

[EGame]

I think the Blazers will be in the playoffs next season, and Oden will be a big part of that. There are still a lot of great teams in the west, so I don't think Portland will get a good seed or make it past the second round at best.

Assuming Oden starts, I'd say he needs to average more than 8 points and 8 rebounds per game for the Blazers to make the playoffs. A successful season would be anything more than 12 points per game. My guess is he scores 14 or 15 per game.

I think most of Oden's impact will come from his defense and isn't reflected in these stats. If he's DPOY from day one, anything else he does is just icing. If his inexperience makes him a defensive disaster for a year or two, he needs to be scoring to make up for it.

I do agree that his impact will come from the defensive side of things and he should do well in that area. As much as I like Pryzbilla, I just don't think he can turn into a Pryzbilla on offense or that could be bad. I think if Oden can average more points (even if it isn't a whole lot more) then Pryzbilla than I think that would be good for our playoff chances. His strengths do lie within the defensive side of the ball, but I feel he needs to score as well, so we will see. I am excited for our chances to make the playoffs next year because of how successful we have been this year along with the development of some guys such as Aldridge and Outlaw.

[PDXKnight]

I think most of Oden's impact will come from his defense and isn't reflected in these stats. If he's DPOY from day one, anything else he does is just icing. If his inexperience makes him a defensive disaster for a year or two, he needs to be scoring to make up for it.

I agree. Oden's main impact won't show up on the stat sheet. I don't see Oden being a huge scorer in his rookie season (maybe 12-13 PPG) but his game fills many of the blazers' insufficiencies which will really help round this team out. Oden's post defense and rebounding will help the most as the Blazers have proven their need for both at times. I picture him averaging 9 RPG and around 2 BPG which should help the Blazers a lot next season. In addition, I expect Oden's game to make the other players better with his post scoring threat on offense creating open jumpers and his defensive abilities making it much easier to defend opponents.

While I don't expect the Blazers to be the best team in the west for a couple more seasons, the big three will make the Blazers a definite threat in the playoffs. Portland probably won't make it to the finals but I could see them catching a lot of teams by surprise in the playoffs.

[BlackMamba]

i'm thinking that maybe 16 pts would be too much, but i could see him getting at least 9 rebs and 2.5 blocks.

but, also, how much has oden learned during this year? i know he's played almost none at the real nba level, but maybe being around this extra year has tought him certain things that will make him even a better rookie.

[Yangsing]

12 points, 8 rpg, 2 bpg is the low end of my expectations.

Yes, his stats will be lower than expected because Joel will still be taking alot of his minutes early in the season when the Blazers want to ease him instead of playing heavy minutes. That's also not to mention adjusting to the NBA bigger/faster athletes.

[Fitz303]

15ppg 8rpg 2bpg and a playoff birth!

[d-train]

Provided Oden can get 35 mpg his averages will be 30 points, 17 rebounds, and 5 blocks per game. Getting minutes will be Greg's big challenge because he will be competing with Joel, a future HOF'er.

Blazers will be in the playoffs next year that is a given. Roy will be in his 3rd year and dramatically better than he has been in his 1st 2 years and Aldridge as well will be even more ready to have an impact. Also, Outlaw's improvement the last couple of years is legitimate reason to be excited about his future.

[mojomarc]

Read the article on Wiretap about how Portland is re-arranging the offense to accomodate Oden, particularly the part about how Aldrige says that if he's ever double teamed he can just throw the ball to the rim and Oden will get it. This is very telling that Oden will be more than just a part-time contributor offensively when he is on the floor, and that the expectation is that he will simply use his huge size, hands and quickness to get to the rim and power it home. He may start off a little slow, but I fully expect him to be our leading scorer by this time the year after next and being a fairly close third behind Roy and Aldridge next year.

Bottom line: when a dude is that big, that strong, that quick, and has hands that good, you would be stupid to only go to him enough times to get 12 points per game. He won't get the sarcastic numbers d-train is suggesting, but if he isn't getting 15 shots per game by the end of the season I can't see KP keeping Nate around regardless of record. It will be like Paul Westhead getting fired from the Lakers in 1981 because he couldn't devise a system that really took advantage of Magic Johnson's unique talents.

[Village Idiot]

I think Dwight Howard's sophomore season is a good gague of my expectations for Oden.

Howard managed 15.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and only 1.4 blocks

given that Oden has a better shooting touch and Hands than Howard I expect Greg to average

17 points, 13 rebounds and 2.5 blocks.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

I'll say 14 points, 12 rebounds, two assists and two blocks a game.

I expect this Blazers team to be true to itself and have really balanced scoring next year. It'll take some time, but I envision a lineup with at least 4 12+ ppg scorers on the roster and at least five in double figures.

[TradeMachine]

GO: 15pts, 9rbs, 2asts, 2.5blks, in a solid 29 min/ game.

For good measure, Rudy: 9pts, 3asts, 2rbs, in 23 mins/game.