First Half and The Four Factors Differentials

[Epicurus]

Looking at the differentials in the 4 Factors (efg%, Turnover rate, Offensive rebounding rate, and foul line use) between the Blazers and their opponents, then comparing the differentials on each with the same factors last season, we find a 1.0% decline in efg%; a 0.7 improvement in turnover rate; 7.5% decline in offensive rebounding rate, and a 4.1 decline in free throw use (free throws made to field goal attempted).

Then by applying the weights given each factor to seasonal wins (Winston, MATHLETICS)--3.5, 3.3., 1.3, and .44 respectively, we discover 4 seasonal losses due to the shooting decline; 2 season gains due to turnover rate; 10 seasonal losses due to offensive rebounding rate; and 2 seasonal losses due to free throw use. From last season's 53 win season, we get 39 wins this season (assuming, of course, the 1st half rates on the Four Factors remain the same).

The import here is the relatively large role of rebounding deficiencies compared to last year--10 more seasonal losses just for that. In short, the analysis shows the Blazers aren't shooting as well (the differential here is entirely the 1.2% lower efg% offensively, as the defense against shooting has been basically the same between the years); a bit better regarding turnovers; really bad a rebound--differential rate of -7.5%; and fouling a bit too much while not getting to the line enough.

Will the second half see significantly better rebounding, slightly better shooting, and less fouling?

[dunlop212]

Maybe a playoff run if Nurkic comes back close to 100 percent. I had them at 38 wins in the preseason poll, and am not as surprised as some folks here.

[Epicurus]

I did not think in the preseason period that the rebounding this season would drop so far from last season. Thus I thought with the changes that opponent efg% would go up a percent or so (the gm's intent was that the Blazers' efg% would go up higher than any opponent gains), that the turnovers would stay even between the Blazers and opponents). I also thought that enough 7 fters and around existed to keep the rebounding at least even. Yet, too many tall rebounders got injured. Thus this situation for the firsthalf of the season.