ImageImage

If Portland blows it up...

Moderators: Moonbeam, DeBlazerRiddem, The Sebastian Express

User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 21,201
And1: 1,095
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#141 » by d-train » Wed Jun 9, 2021 7:03 am

Waynearchetype wrote:
d-train wrote:I wish I had a transcript of the presser so I could post it here. Name one thing he blamed on Stotts. He said nothing but positive complimentary things about Stotts. He said Stotts was a friend and he did an outstanding job for almost a decade. He also made what he characterized as a tough decision to replace Stotts. And, he believes a new coach will help the team get better. Where is the basis of the BS, "throw him under the bus" narrative?

He also debunked many false stories being made up in the press. He offered to debunk more, but the cowards didn't take him up on his offer. Like the list of coaching candidates that Olshey laughed at and said there is no list, not yet. He asked Lillard who he likes, and Lillard named 2 people he likes, which he noted wasn't good for the candidates. Olshey said eventually a list of 20 or more candidates will be compiled and vetted.

There was decent amount of information shared. Too bad nobody was there to listen. There was a couple good questions, but not enough.


How do you interpret the sentence "The defense was not a product of the roster".


It's very simple and crystal clear. The near last place defensive rating was not a product of the roster. It was a product of Stotts game plan. Stotts himself would admit that. It's also not the best measure of the success of Stotts defense. The best measure would be the average scoring margin adjusted for pace.

A better question to ask Olshey would be to explain the teams poor average scoring margin. He probly would have said (if asked, instead of numerous stupid questions), it was negatively effected by injuries to big players, Nurk's poor condition early in the season, and CJ's injury. He would have pointed to the improvement with Powell and healthy in-shape Nurkic in the lineup.

He could also point out his coaching change as a plan to improve, which he did in answer to a question that was asked. I don't agree with this, but it certainly isn't throwing Stotts under the bus.

Waynearchetype wrote:That's the big thing because it was partly a question about his own job security. That answer is saying "I am responsible for the job of roster construction, but the roster construction isn't the reason why our defense is so bad." Ironically, he then takes credit for the offense by saying "We've benefited from the offense I've cultured, but we've been hit on the defensive side of the culture". So he takes credit for the good, but insists the bad isn't part of the roster (the thing that he is responsible for).

He answered a direct question about his job security. He said he serves at the pleasure of Jody Allen. His job is secure as long as Jody sees value in his work. IOW, what the media and we think of his performance is not relevant. He works for his boss.

He should take credit for the roster construction. He has done a great job. He shouldn't say the Blazers are bad defenders because they are not bad defenders, see above.

Waynearchetype wrote: And at the end of the day, Olshey made the move to get Norman Powell. A starting caliber SG, one who expects to start (and if Olshey was being honest about wanting to retain Norm, was likely promised he could start). In a roster already criticized for its defense with questions about running a combo guard at SG, Olshey chose to go in the direction of getting even smaller. He also chose to get Kanter and Carmelo, both players who are good enough to play but don't really fit together. Both would have been absolutely drama-filled if denied playing time. If the defense is not a product of the roster and the roster is loaded with defensive liabilities and people playing out of position, i'm not really sure what you could have expected Stotts to do.


The Powell addition was great for the team. Olshey should be proud of the addition and should also claim credit. Blazers are a better team because of it.

Melo and Kanter are smaller additions and very good additions in there own relative proportion. They are better offensive players, and Olshey hinted more attention to defense off the bench could add value. Blazers don't have any defensive liabilities, unless you count Kanters defense against Joker, which is a dumb argument. 99% of NBA players are a defensive liability against Joker.

Olshey also said his philosophy is to get the best 5 players he can get. He doesn't believe in building a team by the numbers, a prototypical 1-2-3-4-5. He could have just said the Earth is round, everyone that knows basketball, knows he is right on this point.

correction: he doesn't believe in prioritizing a prototypical roster over talent.

Waynearchetype wrote:And at the end of the day, it doesn't even matter. If you have ever been in a management position, you should know that you need to choose your words carefully, and you are expected to take the blame for those under you. Even if he did not intend to shift the blame onto Stotts, most normal people would interpret it that way, and its entirely his fault for doing so.

Olshey did a fine job of answering all the questions, even the dumbest ones, he was respectful. There was one question that was so stupid he rightfully dismissed it. One time he had to remind a reporter the NBA has rules about what he can talk about. Again, he didn't blame anyone. He spoke glowingly about Stotts. He was asked about his plans to improve the team and you can agree or disagree that replacing Stotts is a good idea. I disagree with Olshey on this point. But, it's possible Olshey and Stotts were at an impasse on the right game plan. If this is true, I respect Olshey for allowing Stotts space to do his job his way.
Image
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 21,201
And1: 1,095
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#142 » by d-train » Wed Jun 9, 2021 2:35 pm

It doesn't sound like Blazers are going to blow it up.

Olshey did talk about trading into the draft, maybe the 2nd round. This sounds like a good idea to me. Salary cost is low. Upside potential isn't great, but it's an inexpensive gamble.
Image
BlazersBroncos
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,516
And1: 4,163
Joined: Oct 27, 2016

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#143 » by BlazersBroncos » Wed Jun 9, 2021 6:53 pm

Olshey did talk about trading into the draft, maybe the 2nd round. This sounds like a good idea to me. Salary cost is low. Upside potential isn't great, but it's an inexpensive gamble.


Ya, if this team had 2 CJ Elleby's we would be pushing PHX in the 2nd round right now.
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 21,201
And1: 1,095
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#144 » by d-train » Wed Jun 9, 2021 9:27 pm

BlazersBroncos wrote:
Olshey did talk about trading into the draft, maybe the 2nd round. This sounds like a good idea to me. Salary cost is low. Upside potential isn't great, but it's an inexpensive gamble.


Ya, if this team had 2 CJ Elleby's we would be pushing PHX in the 2nd round right now.

You are right, 2 CJE's would be very helpful, because the most important thing our 13th and 14th man can do is work for cheap. It gives us more money to spend on our top 8-9 players.
Image
Norm2953
RealGM
Posts: 12,350
And1: 788
Joined: May 17, 2003
Location: Oregon

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#145 » by Norm2953 » Wed Jun 9, 2021 10:48 pm

Then it looks like the summer of 2022 is when all the changes that need to be made for the clueless NO
can't blame Terry Stotts for another first round exit
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 21,201
And1: 1,095
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#146 » by d-train » Thu Jun 10, 2021 1:27 am

The math starts really working against this team in 2022. Nurk,RoCo, and Collins will be unrestricted free agents. Also, Lillard and CJ will be in decline. It's pretty unlikely the 2022 roster will look anything like the 2021 roster.
Image
Epicurus
RealGM
Posts: 15,364
And1: 592
Joined: Jan 25, 2006

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#147 » by Epicurus » Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:34 am

Why even think of blowing this team up?
1. Despite long injuries to the best defender at the same time with the second best offensive player, the Blazers won the equivalent of 48 games in a 82 game season. That is up from the equivalent of 39 wins in a 82 game season the previous year (also one with notable amount of injuries).
2. Given normal comparative healthy,without any significant changes, next year's team should be over 50 wins, a decent bet for playoff home court.
3. That doesn't even account for the improvement next season of Simmons and Little, which seems highly possible with a good offseason program for both. Hell, even Giles might be more of a contributor.
4. The starting lineup, three guards plus Nurk and Covington, proved quite good in the season and playoffs.
5. Oops, I forgot Collins returning to improve the defense of the nonstarting unit(s).
6. I doubt if any trade or free agent would guarantee a more probable record next season.
GEE
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,549
And1: 154
Joined: Aug 04, 2006

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#148 » by GEE » Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:23 am

If I was to blow anything up, it might be the medical and training staffs. Maybe the constant injuries are just bad luck, but these guys are multi-million dollar assets, so results in the ability to keep players healthy really matters to this team.

Too soon for me to speculate on players yet, need to get right coach first, but I hope Olshey can work some magic there too. I honestly have no idea what he'll do, but his ass is definitely on the line, so he can't afford to be wrong with any of his moves. For the sake of our team, I hope he can deliver.
Norm2953
RealGM
Posts: 12,350
And1: 788
Joined: May 17, 2003
Location: Oregon

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#149 » by Norm2953 » Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:07 am

Team does need to be fundamentally sound enough to be ready to play large stretches of the season when
invariably Nurk and Collins are sitting on the bench in street clothes. If the team moves CJ to clear a
spot for Powell, they will need a legit backup PG and could use more size and length at both guard
and in the front court. Without any draft picks, NO has his work cut out for him for the western conference
has a number of teams like Memphis who will only get better.
Jax_Tiger
Ballboy
Posts: 1
And1: 0
Joined: Jun 03, 2021
   

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#150 » by Jax_Tiger » Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:42 pm

Agreed. Veteran point guards are not difficult to pick up. I would rather have a strong SF and pick up a PG on the cheap.

This teams ceiling next year is going to depend on how Collins, Simon's, and Little progress.
zzaj
Head Coach
Posts: 6,629
And1: 1,925
Joined: Jul 12, 2006
 

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#151 » by zzaj » Fri Jun 11, 2021 11:00 pm

Jax_Tiger wrote:Agreed. Veteran point guards are not difficult to pick up. I would rather have a strong SF and pick up a PG on the cheap.

This teams ceiling next year is going to depend on how Collins, Simon's, and Little progress.


If that's the case, then we should expect the Blazers to miss the POs by a rather large margin.
GEE
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,549
And1: 154
Joined: Aug 04, 2006

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#152 » by GEE » Sat Jun 12, 2021 5:09 am

Jax_Tiger wrote:Agreed. Veteran point guards are not difficult to pick up. I would rather have a strong SF and pick up a PG on the cheap.

This teams ceiling next year is going to depend on how Collins, Simon's, and Little progress.


Strong first post. Welcome.

I think if Collins, at 21 y/o can get right, and by that I mean not bulk up too much and remain lean and mean - quick and bouncy, we can have a great chance at success next year. He's also the biggest reason why we didn't this year.

I'll just say it over and over... I think trading CJ only to replace him with another 6'3 guard is INSANE!!! Don't get me wrong, I like Powell and his game... CJ's too (though not as much this year), but having 2 undersized SG's, and with Powell & Stotts, 3 SG's on the court at once this year IMO was our biggest error, and what led to Stott's changing of jobs.

I just think the SG position for next season should be wide open right now, with all options on the table. CJ and Powell should be candidates just like GTJ and other possible replacements this off-season. I'm not ready to just settle on Powell, as I don't believe he showed enough to be an automatic lock for the job. I also think Olshey can, and may likely be more creative, if he's willing to finally trade CJ.

I think we start here:
Dame / Simons
cj
Roco / Little
Collins
Nurkic

Most important decision for the franchise right now is actually Nurkic, along with Collins, and if they are the near future. I think the answer is yes, and I'll also assume CJ gets moved. I think Olshey may need to coddle his guys a bit, but I'd also like to convince Jones Jr. and Giles to remain. Both Melo and Kanter can stay or go, IDC, they can go.

So what could we realistically get for CJ? His play on the court was near All-star level, and likely would be out east, and if Stotts goes to Indiana and Nate stays with the ATL, both likely IMO, maybe we can create a bidding war between the two. There are several options there in trade. Other teams that have cap space and high lottery picks this year along with a solid role player or two could interest me as well. A little early for draft talk, but I see a few studs in the top 10 of this years' draft that could contribute right away. Could CJ get us the #5? I will save my many many CJ trade ideas for later, and this isn't even my favorite but maybe something like this for next year is what I hope for.

Dame / Simons / MCW(ORL)
GTJ(F/A) / Ross(ORL) / cj
ROCO / Jones Jr. / Little
Collins / Giles / FRP(ORL)
Nurkic / Bamba(ORL) / Vet Min.
Epicurus
RealGM
Posts: 15,364
And1: 592
Joined: Jan 25, 2006

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#153 » by Epicurus » Sat Jun 12, 2021 5:35 am

The three guard starting lineup worked both in the season and the playoffs, good net ratings for both. I was skeptical of it because I have a bias for taller lineups. But the data forces me to admit it worked. Sometimes, most times, our preferences are not necessarily the best thing for a team.
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 21,201
And1: 1,095
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#154 » by d-train » Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:13 am

Epicurus wrote:The three guard starting lineup worked both in the season and the playoffs, good net ratings for both. I was skeptical of it because I have a bias for taller lineups. But the data forces me to admit it worked. Sometimes, most times, our preferences are not necessarily the best thing for a team.

The 3 guard lineup worked because we have 3 guards among our 5 best players. There is more to it, though. We have a center that rebounds, defends the paint, and the rim. Our 3 guards can't be defended by bigs, so they create mismatches in our favor. Our 3 guards are effective defending bigs in many situations, so in most cases we win the mismatches.

We need to do better identifying our advantages and exploiting them. It does no good having multiple weapons if we only play like a 1-trick pony. Sometimes we can win when Lillard shoots 1-10 and only scores 10 points. And, even if Lillard scores 55 points on 24 shots, we lose. A better job has to be done by our in game floor generals executing our offense and our defense.
Image
Sinobas
Analyst
Posts: 3,296
And1: 357
Joined: Jun 20, 2008

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#155 » by Sinobas » Sat Jun 12, 2021 1:31 pm

What the hell does "scoring margin adjusted for pace" mean?

Points allowed per 100 possessions adjusts for pace, and the Blazers were 2nd to last in that category as well. They were also near the bottom in defensive rebounding rate.
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 21,201
And1: 1,095
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#156 » by d-train » Sat Jun 12, 2021 5:09 pm

Sinobas wrote:What the hell does "scoring margin adjusted for pace" mean?

Points allowed per 100 possessions adjusts for pace, and the Blazers were 2nd to last in that category as well. They were also near the bottom in defensive rebounding rate.

You must know what scoring margin is if you figured out a way to adjust for pace. Scoring margin is better than points allowed because it accounts for scoring allowed against your defense to improve your offense. Actually, now that I think about it, it shouldn't be pace adjusted. Pace of play is just another decision made that determines the total points in final score. Unless, you believe a 10 point margin is better in a 150 point game than a 200 point game, you wouldn't adjust for pace.
Image
Wizenheimer
RealGM
Posts: 34,552
And1: 6,428
Joined: May 28, 2007

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#157 » by Wizenheimer » Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:14 pm

GEE wrote:
Jax_Tiger wrote:Agreed. Veteran point guards are not difficult to pick up. I would rather have a strong SF and pick up a PG on the cheap.

This teams ceiling next year is going to depend on how Collins, Simon's, and Little progress.


Strong first post. Welcome.

I think if Collins, at 21 y/o can get right, and by that I mean not bulk up too much and remain lean and mean - quick and bouncy, we can have a great chance at success next year. He's also the biggest reason why we didn't this year. .


Collins will be 24 when next season starts, not 21. And he's played quite a bit better as a C than as a PF. Portland has Nurkic as a starter. Zach does not have the mobility to consistently guard all the SF's disguised as PF's in the modern NBA. That's the main reason Zach was always in foul trouble

RoCo is both a better player and a better PF
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 21,201
And1: 1,095
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#158 » by d-train » Sat Jun 12, 2021 7:13 pm

I think it would be fun if Zach does win a starting job. Then we can be the Ivory Towers and the 3 Dwarfs.
Image
Norm2953
RealGM
Posts: 12,350
And1: 788
Joined: May 17, 2003
Location: Oregon

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#159 » by Norm2953 » Sat Jun 12, 2021 7:24 pm

It would fascinating to know how well Zach's recovery from his latest injury is going.

Let's say Portland issues him a QO and he's recovered enough to agree to work out with whoever
Portland brings in on their summer league team. If things go well, Zach's ultimate position could
very well be center making Nurk expendable. Portland would still need to acquire the next
Joel Pryzbilla, a guy who they can play for the times Zach (or Nurk) are injured who is simply
better than Enes Kanter.
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 21,201
And1: 1,095
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: If Portland blows it up... 

Post#160 » by d-train » Sat Jun 12, 2021 7:44 pm

If you hire the next Joel PrissyBella, you better need a freakish tall Gas Station Attendant, rather than an NBA basketball player. PrissyBella is a model of past NBA centers that have no value today. Maybe he can work at the gas station for circus vehicles.
Image

Return to Portland Trail Blazers