Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Agenda42]

Olshey's strength thus far has been his opportunism. I don't really think he has a grand plan. He's just looking to make good bets.

I don't think he will sign a big money contract for anyone but CJ this offseason. He values flexibility and likes dumpster diving.

are you sure that's a strength?

I think maybe we have a different definition of opportunism. I don't mean that Olshey has maximized the value of his assets. I mean that he's good at finding a time and place to take a reasonable risk. To the extent he has a plan, I think it resembles what Morey did in Houston -- hit singles, acquire assets, eventually have enough assets to make a big move.

his affection for dumpster diving is what kept the Blazers as having one of the worst benches in the league for 3 seasons.

No question here. I don't think Olshey has done well in signing diamonds in the rough. On the flip side, he's been pretty excellent in the lottery.

I wouldn't say any of the cited actions represent opportunism. Possibly you could say TRob was an opportunity knocks sort of situation, but I think it was more of a cut bait sort of situation.

it could even be argued that past weak opportunism pushed Olshey into a desperation trade of their 1st round pick and Will Barton for Afflalo.

I don't think this was a desperation trade. It looked pretty reasonable at the time. Afflalo turned out to suck, and Matthews turned out to have only one Achilles. To me, more bad luck than bad decision making.

what kind of opportunism is involved in letting a bunch of players walk for nothing: Aldridge, Matthews, Lopez, JJ Hickson, Freeland, Claver, Jared Jeffiries, Mo Williams, Dorell Wright. And how many of Crabbe, Leonard, Harkless, Henderson & Kaman will be added to the list this off-season?

The top chunk of this list walked for nothing because there was a gambler's chance to win a series and keep the team together. The rest of it is a bunch of players you're not going to get value from in the trade market. Expiring contracts as valuable trade commodities is so last CBA.

I know opportunism can take different tracks and yield different results. Flexibility is great, but here's the thing: if Olshey starts re-signing CJ, Crabbe, Harkless, Leonard, etc. then flexibility is flying out of the window at warp speed, and where will the Blazers be with pretty much the current roster locked up long term?

Resigning everyone on the current roster leaves the Blazers as a 5th seed sort of team. They'll need to pick who to retain. My bet would be that they keep CJ for big money and Harkless on a value contract. I'll be shocked if Leonard remains a Blazer.

[DusterBuster]

Olshey sure seems determined to get Monroe on this team.

[Wizenheimer]

Olshey sure seems determined to get Monroe on this team.

I know, and I think it would be a disaster.

[DusterBuster]

Olshey sure seems determined to get Monroe on this team.

I know, and I think it would be a disaster.

Olshey has earned the benefit of the doubt from myself. Monroe defensively is a total disaster from everything I've heard, but I really haven't paid close enough attention to know personally. Offensively I think he'd be a good fit though to give the Blazers a 3rd scoring threat down low. That said, maybe some concern over him clogging the lanes for Dame/CJ. Same with any big who needs to operate close to the rim.

[Wizenheimer]

Olshey sure seems determined to get Monroe on this team.

I know, and I think it would be a disaster.

Olshey has earned the benefit of the doubt from myself. Monroe defensively is a total disaster from everything I've heard, but I really haven't paid close enough attention to know personally. Offensively I think he'd be a good fit though to give the Blazers a 3rd scoring threat down low. That said, maybe some concern over him clogging the lanes for Dame/CJ. Same with any big who needs to operate close to the rim.

Hibbert, Freeland, Hawes, Meyers, TRob, Monroe, Kanter...seems like there's an argument there shouldn't be much 'benefit of doubt' left when it comes to Olshey and big men. Looks like quite a bit more miss then hit

as far as the offensive fit, I think it would be a real questionable one. To start with, Monroe is a high-usage big man. Dame is at 31.5%, CJ at 27.4%; Monroe is at 24%. If you keep track of usage numbers, you'd recognize those at pretty unworkable rates. Somebody, perhaps all 3, would need to lose possessions if they were in the starting unit together.

secondly, I'd estimate that Stotts would not be the coach that would make the most of a low-post scorer or be able to somehow make that man fit with Lillard/CJ. I'm thinking specifically of what he did with Aldridge in pusshing him further and further away from the hoop. in another thread here I talked about that

besides all that, Monroe had an opportunity to sign with Portland. Obviously, he wasn't impressed if he preferred Milwaukee. And there would be a real chance he'd be unhappy being traded to the team he rejected a year before. Don't need that kind of drama

I've also seen this: generally Detroit fans were quite happy to see him go. He left and Detroit got better. Now it seems almost all Milwaukee fans would like to see him go. He arrived and Milwaukee got worse. I don't think those are positive indicators

[Agenda42]

Re: Monroe, I just found this quote:

With Aldridge gone, the Blazers have excised static post-ups and devoted all 48 minutes to Stotts' flowing offense; only 2.8 percent of Portland's possessions have finished via a post-up, the lowest such share ever recorded for a team, per Synergy Sports.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14877651/chemistry-commitment-blazers-ahead-schedule

I don't think it sounds like a fit to me.

[Wizenheimer]

Re: Monroe, I just found this quote:

With Aldridge gone, the Blazers have excised static post-ups and devoted all 48 minutes to Stotts' flowing offense; only 2.8 percent of Portland's possessions have finished via a post-up, the lowest such share ever recorded for a team, per Synergy Sports.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14877651/chemistry-commitment-blazers-ahead-schedule

I don't think it sounds like a fit to me.

thanks agenda...that dovetails with my thoughs about the Stotts offense. Combine how he used Aldridge with the direction the offense has taken and a high-usage post up player seems like a real awkward fit. He's expensive to boot

[Soulyss]

Re: Monroe, I just found this quote:

With Aldridge gone, the Blazers have excised static post-ups and devoted all 48 minutes to Stotts' flowing offense; only 2.8 percent of Portland's possessions have finished via a post-up, the lowest such share ever recorded for a team, per Synergy Sports.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14877651/chemistry-commitment-blazers-ahead-schedule

I don't think it sounds like a fit to me.

Monroe is an excellent passer out of the post, and he's a big body as a screen setter, I just don't know how effective a roll man he is. I agree that its nice to have someone who CAN score out of the post, I think the post ISO game is detrimental to what Portland is doing.

However if Monroe is a good screen and roll, screen and pop guy (not from 3, but from Mid) then it might work just fine.

[Agenda42]

thanks agenda...that dovetails with my thoughs about the Stotts offense. Combine how he used Aldridge with the direction the offense has taken and a high-usage post up player seems like a real awkward fit. He's expensive to boot

I wouldn't be so worried about cost. The market for bigs is likely to be stupid this offseason. Meyers Leonard is probably going to make about as much as Monroe does.

[Wizenheimer]

thanks agenda...that dovetails with my thoughs about the Stotts offense. Combine how he used Aldridge with the direction the offense has taken and a high-usage post up player seems like a real awkward fit. He's expensive to boot

I wouldn't be so worried about cost. The market for bigs is likely to be stupid this offseason. Meyers Leonard is probably going to make about as much as Monroe does.

wait...Monroe will make 17.5 million/year over the next 2 seasons (providing he doesn't opt-out). Do you really think Meyers will be getting anywhere near that much?

IMO, it's way too much for either player and in the case of Meyers 'way-too-much' = MLE

[Agenda42]

wait...Monroe will make 17.5 million/year over the next 2 seasons (providing he doesn't opt-out). Do you really think Meyers will be getting anywhere near that much?

IMO, it's way too much for either player and in the case of Meyers 'way-too-much' = MLE

Monroe signed $50M/3. I think Leonard signs $60M/4. You can call this less or more, depending on your point of view.

I think it is too much, but Leonard is a young not useless big of a fashionable type. He will not make anything close to MLE.

[Wizenheimer]

wait...Monroe will make 17.5 million/year over the next 2 seasons (providing he doesn't opt-out). Do you really think Meyers will be getting anywhere near that much?

IMO, it's way too much for either player and in the case of Meyers 'way-too-much' = MLE

Monroe signed $50M/3. I think Leonard signs $60M/4. You can call this less or more, depending on your point of view.

I think it is too much, but Leonard is a young not useless big of a fashionable type. He will not make anything close to MLE.

I didn't say the MLE was what he is going to get. Just that I don't think he's worth that to Portland, although you could probably argue him on an MLE-level deal would be a useful trade chip. But him on a 15 million/year contract would be a loud, honking, flexibility-killing albatross

[Jsun947]

There was some talk that Portland is expected to pursue Chandler as a free agent this offseason. That's an interesting thought considering we traded Batum because we didn't want to have to pay him a max contract this offseason.

[Fitz303]

There was some talk that Portland is expected to pursue Chandler as a free agent this offseason. That's an interesting thought considering we traded Batum because we didn't want to have to pay him a max contract this offseason.

Parsons is actually a very intriguing option at SF. Definitely a far superior shooter to Aminu. Gives up a little on the defensive end, but not a bad defender either

[PDXKnight]

wait...Monroe will make 17.5 million/year over the next 2 seasons (providing he doesn't opt-out). Do you really think Meyers will be getting anywhere near that much?

IMO, it's way too much for either player and in the case of Meyers 'way-too-much' = MLE

Monroe signed $50M/3. I think Leonard signs $60M/4. You can call this less or more, depending on your point of view.

I think it is too much, but Leonard is a young not useless big of a fashionable type. He will not make anything close to MLE.

Yeah there's zero chance Meyers gets MLE money. He may get less than the 16 million per season if we are lucky but someone will pay up for his "services"

[PDXKnight]

There was some talk that Portland is expected to pursue Chandler as a free agent this offseason. That's an interesting thought considering we traded Batum because we didn't want to have to pay him a max contract this offseason.

Parsons is actually a very intriguing option at SF. Definitely a far superior shooter to Aminu. Gives up a little on the defensive end, but not a bad defender either

He would be a good fit but he will probably get Batum money and at that point we might as well have just stuck with nic.

[acidfrehley]

Yeah, i'd go with Nic over Parsons too.

[Fitz303]

Nic is already gone. Unless you think he's coming back this offseason, Nic should have nothing to do with pursuing Parsons. Parsons is a far superior shooter than Nic as well. Nic has been on the decline, shooting wise, for the last 4 years. Parsons brings more to the table in almost every way besides playmaking (though he's not terrible at that either).

I would be thrilled if we added Parsons, moved Aminu to the backup 3/4, re-signed Crabbe or Henderson for the backup 2/3, and picked up an offensive threat at Center

[Wizenheimer]

Nic is already gone. Unless you think he's coming back this offseason, Nic should have nothing to do with pursuing Parsons. Parsons is a far superior shooter than Nic as well. Nic has been on the decline, shooting wise, for the last 4 years. Parsons brings more to the table in almost every way besides playmaking (though he's not terrible at that either).

I don't think that's accurate

Not only is Batum a better play-maker, he's also a better rebounder and defender. None of the gaps are very significant though. His shooting has not been on the decline for 4 years. Two seasons ago he had his best shooting season. We know last season he played thru an injury to the wrist of his shooting hand. This season, he's shot a little better, but still way off his norm, but then, Charlotte has put him in the position that many here were calling for....they upped his usage to a career high and his assisted FG Rate to a career low, and that, IMO, was a mistake. Batum is not good as a high usage player. He's not going to shoot well with a higher usage and when searching for his own shot with the ball in his hands. He's also going to turn it over more because his handles are only average when driving

Batum is best as a low-usage facilitator, a spot-up shooter, and utility defender. Look at his play-making last season and compare it to CJ this season. Per36, Batum averaged 5.2 assists & 2.0 turnover vs CJ at 4.4 assists & 2.5 turnovers; Batum's assist/turnover ratio was 2.6 while CJ's is 1.76. Now, CJ almost doubled Batum in usage so he's naturally going to have more turnovers, but at the same time, that should mean many more assists if they were comparable facilitators. But they aren't

Problem is, most teams need scoring from their SF position, besides some play-making ability and good handles. Last year, Portland didn't because they had Aldridge scoring from the PF which made Batum's low usage and excellent play-making an almost perfect fit with Aldridge/Lillard. That's why the trade of Batum, at least to me, was a clear signal that Aldridge was leaving

But the chances of Batum coming back to Portland are probably nil. Paul Allen isn't inclined to go for do-overs unless it's Steve Blake, for some strange reason. I think the relationship between Olshey and Batum's agent is probably toxic, and I really doubt Batum has any inclination to come back to Portland

Parsons would be a real nice get, depending on the price of course. Is there reason to believe he'll opt-out and that He and Dallas won't still have a strong mutual attraction?

I would be thrilled if we added Parsons, moved Aminu to the backup 3/4, re-signed Crabbe or Henderson for the backup 2/3, and picked up an offensive threat at Center

Crabbe just doesn't do it for me. If a backup wing can't shoot 40% from three, he should at least be able to do some other things at a good level. Crabbe is a poor rebounder, only CJ is worse on the Blazers; Crabbe is worse then Ed Davis at assists; Only Meyers has a lower FT Rate; and Crabbe's defense is way overrated. He's a career 37% three point shooter, and that's with 97% of his three's being assisted. The league average has been around 35-36% over the last few years;and the Blazers are shooting 36.2% right now. So Crabbe is only slightly better then average. He's also likely to get a big payday this summer, for some reasons that don't make sense

I'd prefer Henderson to Crabbe because I think he'll be cheaper and I like the Blazers having a physical wing to make up for the undersized Lillard/CJ pairing. But honestly, it would be nice if the Blazers could do better then either Crabbe or Henderson

as far as the offensive C, I'm not really sure what that means. If it's somebody like Monroe, then I can't see how the Blazers will be able to afford both Parsons and Monroe. Maybe, if they renounced most of their free agents. Keep in mind that the Blazers chopped over 9 million off their potential cap-space this summer when they made the Varajao trade.

besides that, Monroe and Parsons carry a combined 45% usage rate. That's not going to fit well at all in a starting unit with the higher usage Lillard/CJ

if you had somebody besides Monroe in mind, I'd be curious. Right now, I'm fine with 48 minutes a game of Plumlee/Davis. I think PF is where the gaping hole is. I have some hopes for Vonleh, but I can't help thinking that he should be a lot further along then he is right now if he's supposed to be the PFOTF

[Fitz303]

Nic is already gone. Unless you think he's coming back this offseason, Nic should have nothing to do with pursuing Parsons. Parsons is a far superior shooter than Nic as well. Nic has been on the decline, shooting wise, for the last 4 years. Parsons brings more to the table in almost every way besides playmaking (though he's not terrible at that either).

I don't think that's accurate

Not only is Batum a better play-maker, he's also a better rebounder and defender. None of the gaps are very significant though. His shooting has not been on the decline for 4 years. Two seasons ago he had his best shooting season. We know last season he played thru an injury to the wrist of his shooting hand. This season, he's shot a little better, but still way off his norm, but then, Charlotte has put him in the position that many here were calling for....they upped his usage to a career high and his assisted FG Rate to a career low, and that, IMO, was a mistake. Batum is not good as a high usage player. He's not going to shoot well with a higher usage and when searching for his own shot with the ball in his hands. He's also going to turn it over more because his handles are only average when driving

Batum is best as a low-usage facilitator, a spot-up shooter, and utility defender. Look at his play-making last season and compare it to CJ this season. Per36, Batum averaged 5.2 assists & 2.0 turnover vs CJ at 4.4 assists & 2.5 turnovers; Batum's assist/turnover ratio was 2.6 while CJ's is 1.76. Now, CJ almost doubled Batum in usage so he's naturally going to have more turnovers, but at the same time, that should mean many more assists if they were comparable facilitators. But they aren't

Problem is, most teams need scoring from their SF position, besides some play-making ability and good handles. Last year, Portland didn't because they had Aldridge scoring from the PF which made Batum's low usage and excellent play-making an almost perfect fit with Aldridge/Lillard. That's why the trade of Batum, at least to me, was a clear signal that Aldridge was leaving

But the chances of Batum coming back to Portland are probably nil. Paul Allen isn't inclined to go for do-overs unless it's Steve Blake, for some strange reason. I think the relationship between Olshey and Batum's agent is probably toxic, and I really doubt Batum has any inclination to come back to Portland

Parsons would be a real nice get, depending on the price of course. Is there reason to believe he'll opt-out and that He and Dallas won't still have a strong mutual attraction?

You're right, I left out the defense, though I touched on that in my original post regarding Parsons. Sorry, Batum has had 1 good season of shooting from the field in the last 4 years (was poor the season before, and has been poor the 2 seasons after). He's a below average 3 point shooter, and has been for 2 years now. Hell, Aminu is shooting the same % from 3 as Batum. Overall, I think they're comparable in terms of value, it just depends on what you're looking for at SF

Most Mavs fans believe it's a foregone conclusion that he opts out, and Blazers Edge just had a blurb about Parsons possibly being intriguing to the Blazers, but that Parsons will likely have a large list of potential suitors.

I would be thrilled if we added Parsons, moved Aminu to the backup 3/4, re-signed Crabbe or Henderson for the backup 2/3, and picked up an offensive threat at Center

Crabbe just doesn't do it for me. If a backup wing can't shoot 40% from three, he should at least be able to do some other things at a good level. Crabbe is a poor rebounder, only CJ is worse on the Blazers; Crabbe is worse then Ed Davis at assists; Only Meyers has a lower FT Rate; and Crabbe's defense is way overrated. He's a career 37% three point shooter, and that's with 97% of his three's being assisted. The league average has been around 35-36% over the last few years;and the Blazers are shooting 36.2% right now. So Crabbe is only slightly better then average. He's also likely to get a big payday this summer, for some reasons that don't make sense

I'd prefer Henderson to Crabbe because I think he'll be cheaper and I like the Blazers having a physical wing to make up for the undersized Lillard/CJ pairing. But honestly, it would be nice if the Blazers could do better then either Crabbe or Henderson

as far as the offensive C, I'm not really sure what that means. If it's somebody like Monroe, then I can't see how the Blazers will be able to afford both Parsons and Monroe. Maybe, if they renounced most of their free agents. Keep in mind that the Blazers chopped over 9 million off their potential cap-space this summer when they made the Varajao trade.

besides that, Monroe and Parsons carry a combined 45% usage rate. That's not going to fit well at all in a starting unit with the higher usage Lillard/CJ

if you had somebody besides Monroe in mind, I'd be curious. Right now, I'm fine with 48 minutes a game of Plumlee/Davis. I think PF is where the gaping hole is. I have some hopes for Vonleh, but I can't help thinking that he should be a lot further along then he is right now if he's supposed to be the PFOTF

I agree that I've warmed to the idea of a cheaper Henderson over Crabbe and whatever larger contract he gets this offseason, for many of the same reason that you've stated. Crabbe's defense seemed to be getting better, but he seems to have slipped back into some really lazy ways again, and he can't create for himself.

In regards to an offensive Center, I say that mainly because I feel that Olshey believes that Vonleh has the potential at PF, and will run with him again next year. I guess we'll just hope that he puts in some serious work in the offseason. With the term "offensive" I guess I mean someone who can put up 14-18 ppg, and take some pressure off the guards. I know that Parsons and Monroe (or Howard or Horford) are high usage, but I don't think that's a bad thing. I view taking some pressure off of CJ as the lone option after Lillard as a good thing. Who's actually interested in coming to Portland this offseason? who knows? I know our history suggests that we won't be able to bring anyone, but maybe with this overachieving, having a star in Lillard, and CJ, they can convince some worthwhile players. This is going to be a very interesting offseason for sure. I have NO idea which way Olshey is going to go. Hell, I still like the idea of trading CJ for Okafor or Noel, but I don't see that having a snowball's chance in hell of happening with Olshey.