zzaj wrote:Had to watch a replay of the game because of work...
There are a lot of deep structural things with the way this team is constructed that won't go away, and IMO will keep them from ever being a true title contender.
2 big issues (of the many) that I noticed in this game that are pretty glaring this season so far:
1) The 'dynamic' Stotts offense doesn't work against good teams with length. There is too much perimeter north to south passing and not enough east to west passing. The 'reads' that are required to make the offense work (to get into their different options based on what the defense is giving up) aren't happening quick enough or passes are getting picked off rather easily by the length of opposing teams. CJ and Nurkic in particular are having a really tough time making good decisions.
2) Relatedly, the Blazers are currently last (yes, you read that correctly) DEAD LAST in the NBA in fastbreak points. If you couple an NBA that is trending quicker with a Blazer offense that relies on 3pt jump shooting and two iso oriented guards that both work better in a halfcourt offense to win games?...that really doesn't bode well.
Like last season, the Blazers seem to have a very small window to win games. Basically, they have to shoot an incredibly high percentage from 3pt territory AND get a high volume of 2pt shots AND shoot a high volume of FTs AND not have anybody get into foul trouble to win games.
------------
I expect the Lakers to win easily in Portland. They are #1 in the NBA in points in the paint and #2 in the NBA in fastbreak points. Additionally, they have tons of length in their backcourt to bother the high PnR based, Stotts offense. Their guard rotation of Ball (6'6"), KCP (6'5"), Clarkson (6'5"), and Hart (6'5") is like Blazer kryptonite. Brook Lopez has been camping on the perimeter making jumpers. Which will keep Nurkic out of the paint, where he needs to be in order to help bother shots.
I know this post sounds dour and down at the mouth--but I'm just being realistic about what I see. This Blazers roster is averagely talented so in order to make up for that they need to out execute other teams. I thought with some continuity from last season that the Blazers might have a leg up in that department, but so far it looks as though they have actually regressed.
About point #1... It's not "just" length, the NBA didn't all of the sudden get vastly longer than it did last year. The guards aren't making good, accurate passes this year. Lillard is going better each game, but CJs still passing all over the place.
It's not even that passes are actually getting "picked off" per se... that happens 2-6 times a game, but that's true of every team. I'm finding that more often than not, the Blazers' guards are passing the ball a solid 5-7 feet off the mark, and the recipient of the pass has to go out of their way to receive the ball. This often ends with an easy steal, or a long period of time for the recipient to gather the ball and then reorient themselves and make a decision. This in my view is allowing defenses to react much easier, and it's stagnating the hell out of ball movement. The Blazers 2 lead guards, and best players are not making decisions quick enough, and are not making great reads. It's not like the defensive strategy on how to beat Portland has changed, maybe the guards are just rusty, I don't know... but they're not passing well at all, and our pick and rolls are all sorts of discombobulated still. WAY too many times a game I see Nurkic rolling right down the center of the lane, while Lillard or McCollum are attempting to do the same, the paint gets packed with 3-4 defenders and the Blazers pass the ball to the wings ending in an iffy shot, even if Aminu has been shooting well.
I still think that much of Portland's problems revolve around it's wings, and the 4 position. There's not a single guy who you trust on offense at the 3-4 spot, and Portland is often playing 3 wings at once who are severely flawed on the offensive end. Honestly though.
I trust Pat as a spot up shooter, but the guy stinks at getting open off the ball, all you need to do to neutralize him is put a mediocre defender on him and tell him to stick too him, and his defense is Crabbe levels of bad.
Harkless does pretty much nothing on offense right now, and is bricking dunks at what has to be a record pace, his defense shows up like 3-4 times a month.
Aminu is shooting the ball well, and has his patented 1 good drive and finish every other game or so, but he's just a bag of randomness any offensive possession, should probably be the starting 3, but has been stuck at the 4 do to reluctance to play rookies, and the mismatch disadvantage this creates for the Blazers is often horrendous.
Turner is a mixed bag, you just don't want him shooting 3s at all unless your up by like 7+ and he's open, his offense doesn't really help Lillard or McCollum, but I think does lend well to Davis and Nurkic. Turner's offense has shown capable of floating the Blazers for short periods, but has also proven capable of creating a major drag. Interestingly enough, I feel like tonight Turner should have been more aggressive offensively but wasn't... CJ was just a disaster, and Turner taking another 6 midrange shots and hitting 2-3 of them would've been vastly better than whatever CJ was doing (turning the ball over and bricking) in the 2nd and 4th quarter. Turner play solid, non-magnificent defense. Vastly better than Harkless to this point in the season.
Neither Nurkic or Ed Davis resemble a 4 in any way, but both do/or I think will do a solid to good job at the 5 throughout the majority of the game, in the majority of matchups.
Vonleh... we'll see. I do wonder if in some VERY strange way, when he plays the 4 next to Nurkic they synergize to a point where they are better than they should be based on individual ability. In the short time Vonleh played tonight, his defense looked really good, and he did some good dirty work and went up strong when he got the ball. He should be starting in the next few games IMO. The team definitely needs to change up the rotation, I didn't really want the Harkless/Aminu lineup to start the season, and in multiple games this year the disadvantages it has created have been noticeable.
I think:
Lillard
McCollum
Aminu
Vonleh
Nurkic
I'd experiment with a primary second unit of:
Napier
Lillard/McCollum (due to staggering)
Turner
Swanigan/Collins/Harkless depending on matchup
Ed Davis
With spot minutes for Connaughton in place of Turner and Lillard/McCollum (when they both sit for short spurts). I don't know though, might need to see if we can grab a Jordan Clarkson type player for Harkless or something.... we just have too many similar issues from all our wings. sigh..... was really hoping we'd see some progress with the wings. Aminu seems to be back, it would've been really nice if we got some progression from Harkless on top of that, but the guy has just looked invisible.
