Red Robot wrote:He should be fun to watch and I hope he's a future star.
That said, I'm kind of a Deni skeptic. His counting stats look good, but he was in a great situation to to rack those up with a big role on a bad team (we had plenty of opportunity to see this effect firsthand last season). I'm concerned that the way he appears to be pretty good at everything might be hiding the fact that he's not particularly good at anything. It seems like his strengths--size at his position and driving ability--might be hard to really leverage as part of a great team. I don't think Washington would have made this trade if they thought his long-term upside was especially high. At this point I trust the team who worked with him for several years more than I trust the Blazers' scouting and player development staff.
For that reason, I think the price was high. The Blazers are letting a lot of value go for someone who might not move the needle much. I don't think the value is terrible either, but at this point I'm siding with the camp who'd rather use our assets taking bigger swings.
There're known prototypes of players putting big stats on bad team.
First, guys which shot huge amount of bad shots with ridiculously high for their scoring abilities usage like Evan Turner, Nick Young and so on. Deni didn't get really high usage for most of year, and he was efficient.
Some guys on bad teams don't play defense at all (or can't play defense in any case)... but Deni was probably the best defender on Wizards when they were mediocre team, and when they were horrible. Deni's on/off per 100 poss. was +6.9 this season, while other starters had -4.7 - Kuzma, -5.4 - Poole and even -6.1 - Tyus Jones.
Sure, there certainly some guys which randomly get good year together with more chances to show themselves on bad team, and it may be the case - as you hinting that Wizards don't really believe in Deni's potential if they did this trade... The story is: Wizards sadly did everything and then a bit more to ensure that Deni wouldn't be able to reach his potential: they stuck and forgot him in the corner his rookie year when Russ + Beal run as historically (or more hysterically) high-usage (and pretty dumb) offensive back-court, then he had to became full time defensive stopper to stay in rotation second year when they brought 2 starting forwards in trade, and drafted another wing, 3rd year coaching was just... incoherent, and after finally they installed coach which started to actually use him correctly... they traded him. It's sad for me as I was really hoping he will prove his worth while playing for the team which drafted him - but he could be much better already if he was drafted by those who were interested in developing players.
Anyway. Except that logics of the statement "they agreed to trade him for Brogdon + 2 FRP + 2 seconds... so he probably doesn't worth this" is a bit convoluted - there're several things to take into account. Wizards maybe really felt that Deni doesn't suit their timeline as they aren't going to be good team another 4-5 years, they probably also were afraid his shooting will get worse that year... And it could be the case, but it's less important than it seems. Deni's scoring is mostly inside, shooting needed to open driving lines, but it's secondary. It's much more psychologic issue than real limitation. If he is shooting say 34% but takes and hits with decent enough percent open 3PA including pull-ups - he can score 18+, and even 20 ppg with above average efficiency. After all Luka is ~35% career 3P shooter, and Jimmy Butler is career 33% on 3P.
Actually I don't really see why driving ability would be hard to leverage on good team. Sure if the team wants to misuse and underuse Deni as low-usage 3&D player - it maybe the case. But it's horrible idea even if he shots 40%. On other hand if he set to be in Portland what he actually is e.g, playmaking wing his driving ability is very easy to leverage. Let's say he is 3rd option (if thing are good - 2nd/3rd) on offense. It means that he has ball in his hands to use his driving (+ running p&r, posting up smaller guards) but the opponent can't stuck on him their best wing defender full time... So he is guarded not by bad defender but just by the one which usually defends against SF... and large majority of NBA players aren't quick or/and big enough to guard him on drive.