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2025 Blazer Draft Prospects

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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1181 » by Case2012 » Wed Jun 18, 2025 2:32 am

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Yeah i think he's projection too and i worry about his attitude not willing to workout for teams. He could be the next Reddish or he could be the next Michael Porter or Ingram.

His attitude could be a real pain in the butt or it could be that killer alpha instinct we've desperately needed since we've rebuilt. I would not be surprised to see him fall to us, and while my top guy remains Coward, i would think real hard about him.

I feel like i've been a little hard on Bryant and Essengue, but i want players that are good now-- not players that we think we could train into being good on their second deal. Those players do not possess that IT factor that players who have natural feel for the game and high IQ do.

I firmly believe that with the right coach Wolf, Coward, Clifford, and WCJ could be borderline stars because they have the it factor.. and so does Bailey. It's just hard to delineate between pure hubris and star power sometimes, and that's where most gm's are stuck on him. If he fell to Portland you would have to swing on him almost just from a value stand point.

Getting a second pick for WCJ should be a top priority too, regardless of who we pick at 11. Maybe we could trade Ayton for Vuc and our pick back, then send a 2027 top 8 protected pick to Brk for 19?
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1182 » by Norm2953 » Wed Jun 18, 2025 2:34 am

ESPN had Demin at 13 with a mention of some teams inside the top 10.

I totally buy the notion that picks 9-15 are a crap shoot for Beringer's numbers are off
the chart with mentions of Myles Turner/JJJ but I would wonder if he and DC could
play on the court together. There are seemingly no shortage of developmental bigs
in this draft with Noa, Queen, Beringer, Sorber, Newell all going in the late lottery
to pick 20. I'd love to get a mobile big out of this draft, hopefully one who could
play on the court with DC.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1183 » by Tim Lehrbach » Wed Jun 18, 2025 2:38 am

dckingsfan wrote:
Tim Lehrbach wrote:I realize this is extremely specific, but is there a team that:
1. Picks before the Blazers.
2. Would trade down to 11.
3. Would accept Ayton, Simons, Williams, or Thybulle, or some combination thereof, in exchange for a larger, crappier expiring (i.e., modest savings along with the better player for the team moving down) as the incentive?

If it really is just team preference after the first half dozen picks or so, then maybe Portland can move up to get their guy without sacrificing crucial, future draft picks?

Wishful thinking, no doubt.

I like your thinking but I just can't identify a team. :(


Yeah, tbh I'm talking myself more and more into trading down. I think the Blazers will want to move up, but I just can't find the right match. And for my part, I am simply not overwhelmed by anybody and would rather have a few shots at the pool than just one.

One guy I keep forgetting -- and I'm not alone in this -- is Traore. He has not been mocked in the lottery much in the past few months, but he may well belong there, and I'd take him in Portland. I keep seeing justifications for his fall being a "bad" season and no development. Are these really true, though? His stats did not progress, but I think he looks more polished and fearsome on P&R and dribble-drives, mostly setting guys up but also finishing with strength and finesse. I watched more of him last year, admittedly, but the highlight packages just look quicker and more decisive to me. He clearly needs to fix his shot, but the energy and feel he bring kinda remind me of Lonzo Ball (who fixed his shot). Is that a crazy optimistic comparison? Maybe. The raw elements are there.

All that said, somebody or somebodies are gonna be left from the "interesting projects" pool of this draft in the late teens and early twenties. A trade down for multiple swings might be the best value on the board if the Blazers don't have/can't reach a guy they feel is a stud with #11.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1184 » by BlazersBroncos » Wed Jun 18, 2025 2:43 am

dckingsfan wrote:
BlazersBroncos wrote:Take the big swing early and use Simon’s to get a NBA ready guy like WCJ. That would be my play. Noa will be gone though, so maybe trade down for Coward (who is about as much of an unknown as Noa in many respects - but I like the upside).

I really don't like WCJ's game or contract. But maybe I am missing it - what does he bring that I don't get...

One more question, do you think that Orlando does the deal after this recent trade?


Sorry, don’t mean ORL WCJ. Meant Walter Clayton JR.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1185 » by Tim Lehrbach » Wed Jun 18, 2025 2:45 am

Case2012 wrote:
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Yeah i think he's projection too and i worry about his attitude not willing to workout for teams. He could be the next Reddish or he could be the next Michael Porter or Ingram.

His attitude could be a real pain in the butt or it could be that killer alpha instinct we've desperately needed since we've rebuilt. I would not be surprised to see him fall to us, and while my top guy remains Coward, i would think real hard about him.


I've been highly critical of Bailey, but where Portland picks? His size and fluid athleticism are enough to merit the big swing. I don't think he can possibly drop that far because there are not enough surer things to fill a top ten, and some team is going to take the risk on his upside. I personally don't see a dependable NBA skill in him, so you're drafting him solely for those two attributes: size for an on-ball attacking wing, and fluid athleticism that you hope can be applied in functional ways. Definitely worth a #11 pick and probably about #8-9 in this draft, but that's as much about who else is in the pool as any justifiable excitement over Bailey.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1186 » by oldfishermen » Wed Jun 18, 2025 3:14 am

Ace will score plenty of points in the NBA. Sometimes enough points to win a few games.

The problem with Ace's game is, he only plays hero street ball. He does not get his team- mates involved, nor does he make his team-mates better. I would hate being on his team.

I would not waste a SRP to draft him. Let him ruin some others teams chemistry.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1187 » by zzaj » Wed Jun 18, 2025 3:33 am

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:
zzaj wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
…He also said based on discussions with other FO execs, scouts and agents around the league, he believe if (his words) the Blazers make the pick at 11, the consensus is their pick is going to be one of either Bryant, Noa or Jakučionis. Interesting no mention of Denim... maybe he's fallen down their board. All of it will just depend who's there at 11.


Could all be that they didn’t mention Demin because he’s their primary target. ESPN has been correct a lot of the time projecting for the Blazers…I just have a hard time with KJ…wouldn’t be the worst pick, but he just screams middling backup to me. His game in some ways reminds me of a shrimpy Deni, minus the stepback 3s.

I have a hard time with guards who won’t be able to self-create in the NBA but who are getting sold as passers. It’s MUCH more difficult to create an offensive passing advantage off of a set screen than off of a scrambled defense from self creation. Looking at the illinois offense, many of his assists seem to be off of C&S perimeter shots built into their offense.

Another thing I keep seeing which bugs me generally? Prospects keep getting touted with their barefoot measurements vs. their wingspan. A 6’5” barefoot player with a 6’7” wingspan isn’t +2” on an NBA court.


I thought Kasparas had actually pretty impressive numbers off self creation, isolation and step back shooting...? I could be wrong but one of the reasons I like him were some sneaky advanced stats I saw somewhere that I can't remember now lol.

Did find a comment on the draft board
He shot around 36%(?) on stepback threes, scored over 1.0 points per possession in isolation, and ranked in the 98th percentile in pick-and-roll. His HC rim frequency is at 30% on 62FG%. His true shooting sits at 58%, with strong indicators like a .50 free throw rate and .50 three-point rate. While his overall three-point percentage is just 32%, his stepback numbers and 85% from the line suggest he has a strong shot profile with room to develop into an elite shooter.


IIRC, I only watched two Illinois games this season, plus ofc all the same scouting vids we've all seen...so I'm not really the KJ guy. Absolutely, no kind of last word on his scout. He certainly may have a level of self creation he can unlock in the mid range.He You can tell just by watching that the stepback 3 is second nature for him...and that's a good thing. It's much easier to add C&S to the arsenal than off the dribble 3s. He has the FT% to indicate he may be able to up that C&S 3pt percentage, too. And he's only barely 19 on draft day and played internationally...all good things.

The issue with him is that at 6'5" in shoes he's not outlier tall, even for PGs in the modern NBA, so playing against NBA defenders and defenses that know EXACTLY what he's going to do (stepback 3, or attack the basket off of screens and wait for contact) will just wilt any offense he brings to the table. If he was Banton or Demin's height I'd be much more intrigued. So basically what you're getting is a 36% C&S average length combo guard who is good at finding the open man, but gets caught turning the ball over when his defender doesn't bite on his hesitations around the basket. He'll be a negative defender in the NBA given his average length and athleticism.

Again, IMHO he wouldn't be a bad pick...just not somebody I'm as high on vs. Noa, Coward or Bryant at 11 for example. Demin even though he has only +1" length, at 6'9" in shoes at least has a 6'10.25" wingspan to cover up some of his defense. For reference, a player like Kris Murray is 6'8.75" in shoes with a 6'11.75" wingspan.

Full caveat, I'm a super proponent when it comes to outlier length as an indicator of future defense. For me it's kinda the defensive version of FT% : 3pt shooting. Of course not always an accurate prediction metric--certainly there are non-plus, very good defenders, but if you look at the league's best defenders historically, it's one quality that stands out...

Sorry for rambling! I can't WAIT for the draft!
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1188 » by zzaj » Wed Jun 18, 2025 3:40 am

Tim Lehrbach wrote:
Case2012 wrote:
Spoiler:
Read on Twitter


Yeah i think he's projection too and i worry about his attitude not willing to workout for teams. He could be the next Reddish or he could be the next Michael Porter or Ingram.

His attitude could be a real pain in the butt or it could be that killer alpha instinct we've desperately needed since we've rebuilt. I would not be surprised to see him fall to us, and while my top guy remains Coward, i would think real hard about him.


I've been highly critical of Bailey, but where Portland picks? His size and fluid athleticism are enough to merit the big swing. I don't think he can possibly drop that far because there are not enough surer things to fill a top ten, and some team is going to take the risk on his upside. I personally don't see a dependable NBA skill in him, so you're drafting him solely for those two attributes: size for an on-ball attacking wing, and fluid athleticism that you hope can be applied in functional ways. Definitely worth a #11 pick and probably about #8-9 in this draft, but that's as much about who else is in the pool as any justifiable excitement over Bailey.


I think you have to draft Bailey if he falls to #11. I'm not a fan AT ALL, but when he's 'on' he's as good a shotmaker as anybody in this draft. That being said, he's actually not that big. he was touted all year as 6'10" or 6'11"...but at the combine he measured 6'7.5 in socks. He had a 7'0.5" wingspan...so basically +2" in shoes. That's nothing close to elite length for a PF, but a bit above average for a SF.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1189 » by DusterBuster » Wed Jun 18, 2025 4:43 am

oldfishermen wrote:Ace will score plenty of points in the NBA. Sometimes enough points to win a few games.

The problem with Ace's game is, he only plays hero street ball. He does not get his team- mates involved, nor does he make his team-mates better. I would hate being on his team.

I would not waste a SRP to draft him. Let him ruin some others teams chemistry.


Ace Bailey reminds me of Jabari Parker.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1190 » by DusterBuster » Wed Jun 18, 2025 4:44 am

zzaj wrote:
Tim Lehrbach wrote:
Case2012 wrote:
Spoiler:
Read on Twitter


Yeah i think he's projection too and i worry about his attitude not willing to workout for teams. He could be the next Reddish or he could be the next Michael Porter or Ingram.

His attitude could be a real pain in the butt or it could be that killer alpha instinct we've desperately needed since we've rebuilt. I would not be surprised to see him fall to us, and while my top guy remains Coward, i would think real hard about him.


I've been highly critical of Bailey, but where Portland picks? His size and fluid athleticism are enough to merit the big swing. I don't think he can possibly drop that far because there are not enough surer things to fill a top ten, and some team is going to take the risk on his upside. I personally don't see a dependable NBA skill in him, so you're drafting him solely for those two attributes: size for an on-ball attacking wing, and fluid athleticism that you hope can be applied in functional ways. Definitely worth a #11 pick and probably about #8-9 in this draft, but that's as much about who else is in the pool as any justifiable excitement over Bailey.


I think you have to draft Bailey if he falls to #11. I'm not a fan AT ALL, but when he's 'on' he's as good a shotmaker as anybody in this draft. That being said, he's actually not that big. he was touted all year as 6'10" or 6'11"...but at the combine he measured 6'7.5 in socks. He had a 7'0.5" wingspan...so basically +2" in shoes. That's nothing close to elite length for a PF, but a bit above average for a SF.


I agree with this. If he gets to 11 you probably have to take the swing even if you aren’t 100% sold on him given the natural skills he has.

I definitely would worry he’s too much of a tweener tho, even for today’s NBA.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1191 » by The Sebastian Express » Wed Jun 18, 2025 5:33 am

I don't think he drops to eleven. He isn't having issues on the realm of Cam Whitmore, right?
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1192 » by dckingsfan » Wed Jun 18, 2025 2:26 pm

BlazersBroncos wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
BlazersBroncos wrote:Take the big swing early and use Simon’s to get a NBA ready guy like WCJ. That would be my play. Noa will be gone though, so maybe trade down for Coward (who is about as much of an unknown as Noa in many respects - but I like the upside).

I really don't like WCJ's game or contract. But maybe I am missing it - what does he bring that I don't get...

One more question, do you think that Orlando does the deal after this recent trade?

Sorry, don’t mean ORL WCJ. Meant Walter Clayton JR.

Ah, makes much more sense... Who is going to give you picks for Simons?
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1193 » by BlazersBroncos » Wed Jun 18, 2025 2:45 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
BlazersBroncos wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:I really don't like WCJ's game or contract. But maybe I am missing it - what does he bring that I don't get...

One more question, do you think that Orlando does the deal after this recent trade?

Sorry, don’t mean ORL WCJ. Meant Walter Clayton JR.

Ah, makes much more sense... Who is going to give you picks for Simons?


CHA? Nurkic + min contract player + 33 + 34?

I could see DET having interest if they lose Beasley and THJ. Stewart + Simons works - really like Beef Stew as a long term backup to DC.

BRK obviously if they want to meet the cap floor w/o taking on long term salary. Simons for 27.

LAL can match w/ Vincent + Maxi + Dalton.

Maybe even DAL w/ Simons for Klay + Martin + protected future FRP (Pick is justified w/ addition of Martin and his bad deal)

The DET idea is my favorite - but it would hinge on them losing both shooters in FA IMO.

Follow it up w/ Ayton + Kris or Reath to LAL for Vincent + Maxi + Vandy + Dalton. Probably buy out Maxi.

Finish it up w/ 11 for 15 + 24

G - Scoot Henderson / Gabe Vincent / Walter Clayton JR (24)
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle / Cedric Coward (15)
F - Toumani Camara / Dalton Knetch / Cedric Coward (15)
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Simone Fontecchio
C - Donovan Clingan / Isaiah Stewart / Jarred Vanderbilt

IR RWIII
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1194 » by dckingsfan » Wed Jun 18, 2025 3:15 pm

BlazersBroncos wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
BlazersBroncos wrote:Sorry, don’t mean ORL WCJ. Meant Walter Clayton JR.

Ah, makes much more sense... Who is going to give you picks for Simons?

CHA? Nurkic + min contract player + 33 + 34?

I could see DET having interest if they lose Beasley and THJ. Stewart + Simons works - really like Beef Stew as a long term backup to DC.

BRK obviously if they want to meet the cap floor w/o taking on long term salary. Simons for 27.

LAL can match w/ Vincent + Maxi + Dalton.

Maybe even DAL w/ Simons for Klay + Martin + protected future FRP (Pick is justified w/ addition of Martin and his bad deal)

The DET idea is my favorite - but it would hinge on them losing both shooters in FA IMO.

Follow it up w/ Ayton + Kris or Reath to LAL for Vincent + Maxi + Vandy + Dalton. Probably buy out Maxi.

Finish it up w/ 11 for 15 + 24

G - Scoot Henderson / Gabe Vincent / Walter Clayton JR (24)
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle / Cedric Coward (15)
F - Toumani Camara / Dalton Knetch / Cedric Coward (15)
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Simone Fontecchio
C - Donovan Clingan / Isaiah Stewart / Jarred Vanderbilt

IR RWIII

I don't want to shoot these down but, I don't think any of them happen on their own. But this could be a wild off-season where Cronin gets involved in the trading - or not.

Of all these, I think the Dallas option is the most likely. Also, never trade with LAL :D
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1195 » by BlazersBroncos » Wed Jun 18, 2025 4:06 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
BlazersBroncos wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Ah, makes much more sense... Who is going to give you picks for Simons?

CHA? Nurkic + min contract player + 33 + 34?

I could see DET having interest if they lose Beasley and THJ. Stewart + Simons works - really like Beef Stew as a long term backup to DC.

BRK obviously if they want to meet the cap floor w/o taking on long term salary. Simons for 27.

LAL can match w/ Vincent + Maxi + Dalton.

Maybe even DAL w/ Simons for Klay + Martin + protected future FRP (Pick is justified w/ addition of Martin and his bad deal)

The DET idea is my favorite - but it would hinge on them losing both shooters in FA IMO.

Follow it up w/ Ayton + Kris or Reath to LAL for Vincent + Maxi + Vandy + Dalton. Probably buy out Maxi.

Finish it up w/ 11 for 15 + 24

G - Scoot Henderson / Gabe Vincent / Walter Clayton JR (24)
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle / Cedric Coward (15)
F - Toumani Camara / Dalton Knetch / Cedric Coward (15)
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Simone Fontecchio
C - Donovan Clingan / Isaiah Stewart / Jarred Vanderbilt

IR RWIII

I don't want to shoot these down but, I don't think any of them happen on their own. But this could be a wild off-season where Cronin gets involved in the trading - or not.

Of all these, I think the Dallas option is the most likely. Also, never trade with LAL :D


Shooting down is fine. I am being optimistic. I dont think there is going to be a market for Ayton or Simons. Grant especially is untradable. I think we simply draft and sit on our hands. Unfortunately.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1196 » by dckingsfan » Wed Jun 18, 2025 4:20 pm

BlazersBroncos wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
BlazersBroncos wrote:CHA? Nurkic + min contract player + 33 + 34?

I could see DET having interest if they lose Beasley and THJ. Stewart + Simons works - really like Beef Stew as a long term backup to DC.

BRK obviously if they want to meet the cap floor w/o taking on long term salary. Simons for 27.

LAL can match w/ Vincent + Maxi + Dalton.

Maybe even DAL w/ Simons for Klay + Martin + protected future FRP (Pick is justified w/ addition of Martin and his bad deal)

The DET idea is my favorite - but it would hinge on them losing both shooters in FA IMO.

Follow it up w/ Ayton + Kris or Reath to LAL for Vincent + Maxi + Vandy + Dalton. Probably buy out Maxi.

Finish it up w/ 11 for 15 + 24

G - Scoot Henderson / Gabe Vincent / Walter Clayton JR (24)
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle / Cedric Coward (15)
F - Toumani Camara / Dalton Knetch / Cedric Coward (15)
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Simone Fontecchio
C - Donovan Clingan / Isaiah Stewart / Jarred Vanderbilt

IR RWIII

I don't want to shoot these down but, I don't think any of them happen on their own. But this could be a wild off-season where Cronin gets involved in the trading - or not.

Of all these, I think the Dallas option is the most likely. Also, never trade with LAL :D

Shooting down is fine. I am being optimistic. I dont think there is going to be a market for Ayton or Simons. Grant especially is untradable. I think we simply draft and sit on our hands. Unfortunately.

Sadly, I am with you. I guess the only thing that gives me optimism is that it could be a wild draft night with lots of transactions where we get pulled in.

I don't think it will be targeted trades from Cronin rather a reaction to other teams. But, we did the Deni trade - so I could be all wet.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1197 » by Norm2953 » Wed Jun 18, 2025 4:36 pm

I don't know if there will be a market for Ayton/Simons but they are expiring and perhaps its for the better
if Portland just let them walk so that they will have cap space next summer

https://hoopshype.com/lists/2026-nba-free-agent-rankings-the-best-players-available-next-year/
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1198 » by oldfishermen » Wed Jun 18, 2025 6:01 pm

@ #11, my first choice is still Coward. But I agree with the logic of picking Jakucionis.

Both players could fill a need, and become part of the regular rotation. Coward is more NBA ready, Jakucionis has the higher ceiling.

We should know what we have in Coward by mid season. KJ will probably take a couple of seasons to breakout. Hope he is not another Sharpe. Tons of potential, but after 2.5 seasons, we still do not know what we have in Sharpe.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1199 » by zzaj » Wed Jun 18, 2025 6:58 pm

oldfishermen wrote:@ #11, my first choice is still Coward. But I agree with the logic of picking Jakucionis.

Both players could fill a need, and become part of the regular rotation. Coward is more NBA ready, Jakucionis has the higher ceiling.

We should know what we have in Coward by mid season. KJ will probably take a couple of seasons to breakout. Hope he is not another Sharpe. Tons of potential, but after 2.5 seasons, we still do not know what we have in Sharpe.


Interesting...my feeling is the exact opposite. Coward's length and plus shooting, as well as the unknowns surrounding his growth curve project him with a higher ceiling in my view. If his shooting is real and he adds some in-between game and his defense continues to develop to a high level then that is a very very good player. KJ has very limited athletic ability for a guard, and while his stepback 3 is a weapon, his C&S leaves some to be desired. I don't really believe in his passing, personally. A lot of his assists and "vision" appear to be open passes to wide open shooters in the Illinois system.

Both players I would expect will need a couple of years to get their feet wet in NBA play.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#1200 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Wed Jun 18, 2025 7:02 pm

zzaj wrote:
Spoiler:
DeBlazerRiddem wrote:
zzaj wrote:
Could all be that they didn’t mention Demin because he’s their primary target. ESPN has been correct a lot of the time projecting for the Blazers…I just have a hard time with KJ…wouldn’t be the worst pick, but he just screams middling backup to me. His game in some ways reminds me of a shrimpy Deni, minus the stepback 3s.

I have a hard time with guards who won’t be able to self-create in the NBA but who are getting sold as passers. It’s MUCH more difficult to create an offensive passing advantage off of a set screen than off of a scrambled defense from self creation. Looking at the illinois offense, many of his assists seem to be off of C&S perimeter shots built into their offense.

Another thing I keep seeing which bugs me generally? Prospects keep getting touted with their barefoot measurements vs. their wingspan. A 6’5” barefoot player with a 6’7” wingspan isn’t +2” on an NBA court.


I thought Kasparas had actually pretty impressive numbers off self creation, isolation and step back shooting...? I could be wrong but one of the reasons I like him were some sneaky advanced stats I saw somewhere that I can't remember now lol.

Did find a comment on the draft board
He shot around 36%(?) on stepback threes, scored over 1.0 points per possession in isolation, and ranked in the 98th percentile in pick-and-roll. His HC rim frequency is at 30% on 62FG%. His true shooting sits at 58%, with strong indicators like a .50 free throw rate and .50 three-point rate. While his overall three-point percentage is just 32%, his stepback numbers and 85% from the line suggest he has a strong shot profile with room to develop into an elite shooter.


IIRC, I only watched two Illinois games this season, plus ofc all the same scouting vids we've all seen...so I'm not really the KJ guy. Absolutely, no kind of last word on his scout. He certainly may have a level of self creation he can unlock in the mid range.He You can tell just by watching that the stepback 3 is second nature for him...and that's a good thing. It's much easier to add C&S to the arsenal than off the dribble 3s. He has the FT% to indicate he may be able to up that C&S 3pt percentage, too. And he's only barely 19 on draft day and played internationally...all good things.

The issue with him is that at 6'5" in shoes he's not outlier tall, even for PGs in the modern NBA, so playing against NBA defenders and defenses that know EXACTLY what he's going to do (stepback 3, or attack the basket off of screens and wait for contact) will just wilt any offense he brings to the table. If he was Banton or Demin's height I'd be much more intrigued. So basically what you're getting is a 36% C&S average length combo guard who is good at finding the open man, but gets caught turning the ball over when his defender doesn't bite on his hesitations around the basket. He'll be a negative defender in the NBA given his average length and athleticism.

Again, IMHO he wouldn't be a bad pick...just not somebody I'm as high on vs. Noa, Coward or Bryant at 11 for example. Demin even though he has only +1" length, at 6'9" in shoes at least has a 6'10.25" wingspan to cover up some of his defense. For reference, a player like Kris Murray is 6'8.75" in shoes with a 6'11.75" wingspan.

Full caveat, I'm a super proponent when it comes to outlier length as an indicator of future defense. For me it's kinda the defensive version of FT% : 3pt shooting. Of course not always an accurate prediction metric--certainly there are non-plus, very good defenders, but if you look at the league's best defenders historically, it's one quality that stands out...

Sorry for rambling! I can't WAIT for the draft!


Ramble away! It's what we are all here for anyways, just offering various opinions. No one is an expert or should be taken too seriously, not like we are getting paid to be here.

I am definitely with you about length, it's why I'm still high on the "hype trio" of Essengue, Bryant and Coward.

But the other thing I think to look out for is players with exceptional BBIQ. They might not always come in the most physically ideal package but players who can think the game faster and better than others definitely have a place in this league.

In our range, KJ is the guy that sticks out to me as maybe having the feel and mentality to be that kind of player. Is he? I dunno. No one does. It's the hardest thing to measure or project in a prospect. We can only watch and find out. But he has a specific kind of flair to his game, a looseness and adaptability that I like to see as hints toward that sort of thing.

Is 6'5 too small for PG these days? I don't really think so. I think a bigger problem for PG's is being slow, its why I am just not a fan of Demin. Point guards need to constantly fight over screens and beat players to spots on the court. At least as far as it relates to offensive abilities I would rather a guy with less than ideal height but with good speed and shiftiness at the position. I mean I would love to find an offensive wizard with exceptional size and length and speed but drafting at 11 something has to give. I think KJ could be a Jamal Murray type player, obviously that isn't a A tier star player but it would still be a good pickup at 11. So I think KJ has a good mix of size and shiftiness and the kind of vision and ball handling to potentially someday be a lead ball handler for a team.

He still isn't my top target. I have a bit of hesitation about his second half of the season. I mean 6 months ago he was pretty universally ranked as a top 5 draft pick and so the only reason we are discussing him is due to that slip. The story is that was due to an injury which, sure ok, maybe circumstances have allowed a top talent to slip to us. But also I am definitely wary of trends and it makes me wonder if he will be able to be consistent in a league as physical as the NBA, players are constantly getting dinged up and bruised and they need to perform to their best regardless.

Anyways, broadly speaking my thinking on this kind of goes as such: While obviously you want all players to be good defenders, exceptional defense is what makes exceptional role players and exceptional offense is what makes star players. It would be a little silly to pass up on Jamal Murray for Jaden McDaniels. Now again if scouting doesn't think KJ can be that kind of offensive initiator then yeah lets draft a guy who can be a defensive monster instead, but I wouldn't rule out a guy who is head and shoulders above his peers when it comes to thinking the game just because they aren't ideal physically or built for elite defense.

Anyways, ramble ramble ramble no one really knows. I think KJ has an intriguing enough skillset combined with a fluidity and craftiness to consider him against guys who better look the part like Essengue, Bryant and Coward. Not entirely sold one way or the other, but its worth not ruling him out entirely.

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