Making Sense of a Senseless Summer

[zzaj]

I agree with most of this, although I think the relocation odds are probably 5%. Portland is a profitable NBA market, probably largely due to there being no NFL or MLB team here.

It depends entirely on who ends up buying the team. There aren't a lot of people who have billions of dollars sitting around that could buy the Blazers. If it goes private equity, it probably stays but management remains at the current level of competency. The Hawks are a great example there. But if it gets bought by one of the billionaires in Seattle, not liking the chances. Likewise, if it gets bought by some Chinese guy/conglomerate, they have no ties to Portland. They could view a second team in the Bay as more financially viable. Or San Diego. Or Vegas. Tons of Chinese tourism in all 3 of these places.

If the team does relocate, an MLB team will almost certainly relocate here to fill the gap. I don't like baseball, so whatever.

I also disagree that we should bring Dame back, and I doubt that he wants to return. Why wouldn't he sign for Boston or a contender? After all, that's why he left Portland in the first place. And we're far less competitive now than we were back then.

Dame tore his left achilles tendon. There's a decent chance he plays zero games this year. That's why the Bucks stretched him.

He still has a home, a dealership, and other investments in Portland. A 1+1 player option contract makes some sense. Be a veteran mentor. Do the P.R. tour. Then opt out if he fully recovers, or play a limited role before retiring. Free money.

People forget that Aldridge wanted to come back. Olshey was just a bitter f-tard that was fine milking Dame for 1st round playoff exits.

Golden State makes sense, though. Dame is from the Bay. But I'm pretty sure Boston is financially tapped out, and thus not able to sign him - either from the CBA or the luxury tax associated with paying a guy not to play.

Lillard is apparently interested in Boston. I have no idea why he would want to sign in Portland at this time. If he's 100% into a rehab and not going to play, it doesn't matter what team it is. He can be signed by Boston and live in Portland.

I'm not one to defend Olshey, but it could be that Olshey didn't want Aldridge back because he knew that a 31 year old who isn't a great rebounder, but with a penchant for the 19 foot turnaround jumper wasn't conducive to winning.

[BlazersBroncos]

I agree with most of this, although I think the relocation odds are probably 5%. Portland is a profitable NBA market, probably largely due to there being no NFL or MLB team here.

It depends entirely on who ends up buying the team. There aren't a lot of people who have billions of dollars sitting around that could buy the Blazers. If it goes private equity, it probably stays but management remains at the current level of competency. The Hawks are a great example there. But if it gets bought by one of the billionaires in Seattle, not liking the chances. Likewise, if it gets bought by some Chinese guy/conglomerate, they have no ties to Portland. They could view a second team in the Bay as more financially viable. Or San Diego. Or Vegas. Tons of Chinese tourism in all 3 of these places.

If the team does relocate, an MLB team will almost certainly relocate here to fill the gap. I don't like baseball, so whatever.

I also disagree that we should bring Dame back, and I doubt that he wants to return. Why wouldn't he sign for Boston or a contender? After all, that's why he left Portland in the first place. And we're far less competitive now than we were back then.

Dame tore his left achilles tendon. There's a decent chance he plays zero games this year. That's why the Bucks stretched him.

He still has a home, a dealership, and other investments in Portland. A 1+1 player option contract makes some sense. Be a veteran mentor. Do the P.R. tour. Then opt out if he fully recovers, or play a limited role before retiring. Free money.

People forget that Aldridge wanted to come back. Olshey was just a bitter f-tard that was fine milking Dame for 1st round playoff exits.

Golden State makes sense, though. Dame is from the Bay. But I'm pretty sure Boston is financially tapped out, and thus not able to sign him - either from the CBA or the luxury tax associated with paying a guy not to play.

Lillard is apparently interested in Boston. I have no idea why he would want to sign in Portland at this time. If he's 100% into a rehab and not going to play, it doesn't matter what team it is. He can be signed by Boston and live in Portland.

I'm not one to defend Olshey, but it could be that Olshey didn't want Aldridge back because he knew that a 31 year old who isn't a great rebounder, but with a penchant for the 19 foot turnaround jumper wasn't conducive to winning.

LMA would have still been a winning player had Neil allowed him to return his last season. In 21/22 w/ BRK he posted a .141 WS48, 1.3 OBPM and -0.6 DBPM. Of players that year in BRK that played more than 1K minutes he had the 3rd best OnCourt after KD and Irving - basically tying Harden at +1.3. His ORTG was 119 and DRTG 112.

He absolutley would have helped PDX that year. We played Eubanks 650 minutes for example. LMA posted better numbers across the board than Nance as well - who we paid that never ending FRP obligation for.

We basically could have signed LMA for that 2.5M deal he got in BRK, not traded a FRP for Nance, been a better team and not have the pick obligation still hanging over us.

Neil was a buffoon.

[JasonStern]

Lillard is apparently interested in Boston. I have no idea why he would want to sign in Portland at this time. If he's 100% into a rehab and not going to play, it doesn't matter what team it is. He can be signed by Boston and live in Portland.

Good for Dame. Request Boston all you want. But they have $200M+ in salary. They just traded to get under the second apron, and are repeater tax payers. So that $2.8M veteran's minimum contract suddenly becomes $10M - which might not be a lot for you, but it is me. For a player with a torn achilles unlikely to play for at least most of the season. And then you have Tatum out with the same injury. And I may be wrong on this - don't follow Boston, but after the Holiday and Porzingas salary saving moves, their roster is full. Which means they would have to waive a player. More dead salary. Why would Boston do this?

If he really wants Boston, it would have to be after next season. Unless he signs with a team in some handshake deal where Dame recovers, and at the trade deadline, the team trades Dame to Boston for some salary. Some Dame for Hugo Gonzales trade. But, he's getting every penny from his last contract. So, simply taking a season off to recover isn't exactly the worst option.

I'm not one to defend Olshey, but it could be that Olshey didn't want Aldridge back because he knew that a 31 year old who isn't a great rebounder, but with a penchant for the 19 foot turnaround jumper wasn't conducive to winning.

And starting Dame, CJ, Norm Powell, Covington (at PF), and (a post-injury) Nurkic clearly was conductive to winning. That's certainly an opinion. Hasn't aged well, but an opinion.

Maybe I just like the narratives, but I like it when key franchise players finish out their careers with the franchise they are associated with. Like I will force block from my mind that Hakeem Olajuwon was ever a Toronto Raptor.

[zzaj]

It depends entirely on who ends up buying the team. There aren't a lot of people who have billions of dollars sitting around that could buy the Blazers. If it goes private equity, it probably stays but management remains at the current level of competency. The Hawks are a great example there. But if it gets bought by one of the billionaires in Seattle, not liking the chances. Likewise, if it gets bought by some Chinese guy/conglomerate, they have no ties to Portland. They could view a second team in the Bay as more financially viable. Or San Diego. Or Vegas. Tons of Chinese tourism in all 3 of these places.

If the team does relocate, an MLB team will almost certainly relocate here to fill the gap. I don't like baseball, so whatever.



Dame tore his left achilles tendon. There's a decent chance he plays zero games this year. That's why the Bucks stretched him.

He still has a home, a dealership, and other investments in Portland. A 1+1 player option contract makes some sense. Be a veteran mentor. Do the P.R. tour. Then opt out if he fully recovers, or play a limited role before retiring. Free money.

People forget that Aldridge wanted to come back. Olshey was just a bitter f-tard that was fine milking Dame for 1st round playoff exits.

Golden State makes sense, though. Dame is from the Bay. But I'm pretty sure Boston is financially tapped out, and thus not able to sign him - either from the CBA or the luxury tax associated with paying a guy not to play.

Lillard is apparently interested in Boston. I have no idea why he would want to sign in Portland at this time. If he's 100% into a rehab and not going to play, it doesn't matter what team it is. He can be signed by Boston and live in Portland.

I'm not one to defend Olshey, but it could be that Olshey didn't want Aldridge back because he knew that a 31 year old who isn't a great rebounder, but with a penchant for the 19 foot turnaround jumper wasn't conducive to winning.

LMA would have still been a winning player had Neil allowed him to return his last season. In 21/22 w/ BRK he posted a .141 WS48, 1.3 OBPM and -0.6 DBPM. Of players that year in BRK that played more than 1K minutes he had the 3rd best OnCourt after KD and Irving - basically tying Harden at +1.3. His ORTG was 119 and DRTG 112.

He absolutley would have helped PDX that year. We played Eubanks 650 minutes for example. LMA posted better numbers across the board than Nance as well - who we paid that never ending FRP obligation for.

We basically could have signed LMA for that 2.5M deal he got in BRK, not traded a FRP for Nance, been a better team and not have the pick obligation still hanging over us.

Neil was a buffoon.

Yeah, all totally fair--and yes, Neil was a baffoon...

[zzaj]

Lillard is apparently interested in Boston. I have no idea why he would want to sign in Portland at this time. If he's 100% into a rehab and not going to play, it doesn't matter what team it is. He can be signed by Boston and live in Portland.

Good for Dame. Request Boston all you want. But they have $200M+ in salary. They just traded to get under the second apron, and are repeater tax payers. So that $2.8M veteran's minimum contract suddenly becomes $10M - which might not be a lot for you, but it is me. For a player with a torn achilles unlikely to play for at least most of the season. And then you have Tatum out with the same injury. And I may be wrong on this - don't follow Boston, but after the Holiday and Porzingas salary saving moves, their roster is full. Which means they would have to waive a player. More dead salary. Why would Boston do this?

If he really wants Boston, it would have to be after next season. Unless he signs with a team in some handshake deal where Dame recovers, and at the trade deadline, the team trades Dame to Boston for some salary. Some Dame for Hugo Gonzales trade. But, he's getting every penny from his last contract. So, simply taking a season off to recover isn't exactly the worst option.

I'm not one to defend Olshey, but it could be that Olshey didn't want Aldridge back because he knew that a 31 year old who isn't a great rebounder, but with a penchant for the 19 foot turnaround jumper wasn't conducive to winning.

And starting Dame, CJ, Norm Powell, Covington (at PF), and (a post-injury) Nurkic clearly was conductive to winning. That's certainly an opinion. Hasn't aged well, but an opinion.

Maybe I just like the narratives, but I like it when key franchise players finish out their careers with the franchise they are associated with. Like I will force block from my mind that Hakeem Olajuwon was ever a Toronto Raptor.

Lol, yeah you got a good point there...Okay, I'll go back to not defending Olshey ever again.

[Norm2953]

Guys are signing for obscene amounts of money (Banchero, SGA, Booker, etc and Jokic next summer)

Makes me wonder how much Deni will be asking for next summer if he's had another solid season.

[Walton1one]

And how POR find the way to pay him? Trading for Jrue just made that challenge a little bit harder.

It will probably be up to the next GM to figure that out though

[Sinobas]

And how POR find the way to pay him? Trading for Jrue just made that challenge a little bit harder.

It will probably be up to the next GM to figure that out though

What are you guys talking about? Deni is signed through 27-28. We currently have no salary on the books for 28-29. Grant and Holiday will be off the books.

But we will probably have Scoot/Camara/Clingan/Sharpe on 2nd contracts by then. Cronin just needs to not pay them stupid salary.

[Norm2953]

At least Portland won't be the ones who have to pay Ayton/Simons stupid money but I do wonder
if they will be able to sign Camara this summer for he will be an UFA in the summer of 2027.

Hopefully he will bite on that $100 million extension that has been rumored

[Walton1one]

And how POR find the way to pay him? Trading for Jrue just made that challenge a little bit harder.

It will probably be up to the next GM to figure that out though

What are you guys talking about? Deni is signed through 27-28. We currently have no salary on the books for 28-29. Grant and Holiday will be off the books.

But we will probably have Scoot/Camara/Clingan/Sharpe on 2nd contracts by then. Cronin just needs to not pay them stupid salary.

So your plan is to let Deni play out his contract and become a UFA and then hope he resigns with POR over say another team? Did you not notice what just happened to IND and they were in the NBA championship?

The salary cap is projected to be $182.4 in 28/29, though that may be high, as already they are projecting the increase year over year to be less than initially projected, but let's assume that

Deni will be eligible to make 30% of the salary cap (up to $54mil\approx)

POR will be limited to 120% of his salary (which is $14,250,000), so they cannot go over the cap to resign him & he is not signing for that anyway.

That means POR, because of the way his contract is set up will need to be SIGNIFICANTLY under the cap to pay the man his money (as KGB would say) AND he will be a UFA, which means no leverage for POR and no guarantees even if they do get that far under that he will come back (ask IND).

Hard to predict what other salaries will be on the books by then. Camara (if he does not take the 4yr/$89 deal) will be at\north of $30mil, Sharpe (if he doesn't take the Smith Jr 5yr\$122 deal) will also be north of $30, Scoot will be at $30? $35, Yang @ $7.5, Clingan's cap hold will be @ $29m, 1-2 or more draft picks at anywhere from $10-15mil is ikely & it is doubtful they would not have a few other contracts on the books as well 3 years from now

That is roughly $146 or so, not factoring in any other salary on the books 4 years from now, leaving $36+ mil or so, likely not enough. So doable yes, but the big part you are ignoring is that he will be free to go wherever he wants and POR has no sway, that is a huge risk and signing him a year earlier is just as\if not more problematic given the $73+ mil owed to Jrue & Grant

[Sinobas]

And how POR find the way to pay him? Trading for Jrue just made that challenge a little bit harder.

It will probably be up to the next GM to figure that out though

What are you guys talking about? Deni is signed through 27-28. We currently have no salary on the books for 28-29. Grant and Holiday will be off the books.

But we will probably have Scoot/Camara/Clingan/Sharpe on 2nd contracts by then. Cronin just needs to not pay them stupid salary.

So your plan is to let Deni play out his contract and become a UFA and then hope he resigns with POR over say another team? Did you not notice what just happened to IND and they were in the NBA championship?

The salary cap is projected to be $182.4 in 28/29, though that may be high, as already they are projecting the increase year over year to be less than initially projected, but let's assume that

Deni will be eligible to make 30% of the salary cap (up to $54mil\approx)

POR will be limited to 120% of his salary (which is $14,250,000), so they cannot go over the cap to resign him & he is not signing for that anyway.

That means POR, because of the way his contract is set up will need to be SIGNIFICANTLY under the cap to pay the man his money (as KGB would say) AND he will be a UFA, which means no leverage for POR and no guarantees even if they do get that far under that he will come back (ask IND).

Hard to predict what other salaries will be on the books by then. Camara (if he does not take the 4yr/$89 deal) will be at\north of $30mil, Sharpe (if he doesn't take the Smith Jr 5yr\$122 deal) will also be north of $30, Scoot will be at $30? $35, Yang @ $7.5, Clingan's cap hold will be @ $29m, 1-2 or more draft picks at anywhere from $10-15mil is ikely & it is doubtful they would not have a few other contracts on the books as well 3 years from now

That is roughly $146 or so, not factoring in any other salary on the books 4 years from now, leaving $36+ mil or so, likely not enough. So doable yes, but the big part you are ignoring is that he will be free to go wherever he wants and POR has no sway, that is a huge risk and signing him a year earlier is just as\if not more problematic given the $73+ mil owed to Jrue & Grant

Why are they limited to giving him a 20% raise? I thought they'd have his Bird rights and could go over the cap. If those aren't true, then letting him expire would not be a good move.

But it's in the interest of both teams to pay Deni more earlier and spread it out. Deni is getting paid peanuts.

[Sinobas]

The projected salary cap for 27-28 is 182 mil, with a luxury tax threshold of 221. So 221 is the real "cap" for the Blazers.

We've got 74 million tied up in Grant and Holiday, which has people concerned understandably.

Let's say Deni gets 35 mil, Camara 30, Scoot 20, Sharpe 25, that brings us up to 210 mil for 8 players, so we'd be filling out the roster with 4 minimum wage guys.

Maybe they will play the luxury tax for 1 year, or waive and stretch someone like Grant. They could stretch and waive him in the final year of his deal and avoid the tax, but it would cost 12 mil per year for 3 years. Or Holiday might do us a favor and opt out.

[tester551]

What are you guys talking about? Deni is signed through 27-28. We currently have no salary on the books for 28-29. Grant and Holiday will be off the books.

But we will probably have Scoot/Camara/Clingan/Sharpe on 2nd contracts by then. Cronin just needs to not pay them stupid salary.

So your plan is to let Deni play out his contract and become a UFA and then hope he resigns with POR over say another team? Did you not notice what just happened to IND and they were in the NBA championship?

The salary cap is projected to be $182.4 in 28/29, though that may be high, as already they are projecting the increase year over year to be less than initially projected, but let's assume that

Deni will be eligible to make 30% of the salary cap (up to $54mil\approx)

POR will be limited to 120% of his salary (which is $14,250,000), so they cannot go over the cap to resign him & he is not signing for that anyway.

That means POR, because of the way his contract is set up will need to be SIGNIFICANTLY under the cap to pay the man his money (as KGB would say) AND he will be a UFA, which means no leverage for POR and no guarantees even if they do get that far under that he will come back (ask IND).

Hard to predict what other salaries will be on the books by then. Camara (if he does not take the 4yr/$89 deal) will be at\north of $30mil, Sharpe (if he doesn't take the Smith Jr 5yr\$122 deal) will also be north of $30, Scoot will be at $30? $35, Yang @ $7.5, Clingan's cap hold will be @ $29m, 1-2 or more draft picks at anywhere from $10-15mil is ikely & it is doubtful they would not have a few other contracts on the books as well 3 years from now

That is roughly $146 or so, not factoring in any other salary on the books 4 years from now, leaving $36+ mil or so, likely not enough. So doable yes, but the big part you are ignoring is that he will be free to go wherever he wants and POR has no sway, that is a huge risk and signing him a year earlier is just as\if not more problematic given the $73+ mil owed to Jrue & Grant

Why are they limited to giving him a 20% raise? I thought they'd have his Bird rights and could go over the cap. If those aren't true, then letting him expire would not be a good move.

But it's in the interest of both teams to pay Deni more earlier and spread it out. Deni is getting paid peanuts.

It depends on timing.

If Portland tries to extend Deni prior to his contract expiring (June 2028) -> the CBA requires the new contract to be based on the current contract (or MLE). The most you can go is 140% of the existing contract.

Once Deni enters UFA in July 2028, Portland can offer the max (assuming he's worth it).

[Wizenheimer]

the projected salary cap in 2028-29 is 205M (206.4M according to Forbes)

Avdija will be past the 7-year vet threshold so his scale will be a max 30% of the cap (assuming he's not eligible for the supermax)

so then, his max base salary would be 61.5M with 4.92M step raises. Meaning Deni's Max contract could be a 5-year/356M deal. That's 71M/year folks

now, if he's all-NBA by then and eligible for a super-max (very unlikely but you never know), then his max would be a 4-year/416M deal. Brace yourselves: that's 83M year.

now, the odds he'll warrant that kind of investment are extremely low. The problem is he and his agent will know what the max-level deals look like because they can do math and will have seen lots of insane contracts being signed. Portland will be pushing against that rising tide

[Walton1one]

Since in Deni's last year he makes only $11.8mil, POR can only offer him 140% of that amount, which is $16.6mil roughly. To offer him more than that they need to be UNDER the salary cap, therein lies the problem

Hard to know salary obligation so far out but we can assume:
- Camara (if he does not take the 4yr/$89 deal) will be at\north of $30mil
- Sharpe (if he doesn't take the Smith Jr 5yr\$122 deal) will also be north of $30
- Scoot will be at $35?
- Yang @ $7.5
- Clingan's cap hold will be @ $29m
- 1-2 or more draft picks (26' and\or 27' at anywhere from $10-15mil
- Plus whatever other contracts they have on the books 3 years from now. It is doubtful they would not have a few other contracts

That is roughly $146 or so, not factoring in any other salary on the books, leaving $36+ mil or so

Spotrac has the cap in 28/29 @ $182 million

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/_/year/2028

But again, the most concerning part, other than finding enough space under the cap to resign him, is letting him go to UFA in the first place, b\c then even if POR creates enough room under the cap, he could elect to sign somewhere else, just like Myles Turner did (and Aldridge did many years ago). Cannot risk letting him get to FA, therefore they need to resign him WHILE he is under contract, getting far enough under the cap to renegotiate his deal early.

The problem with that is, POR has Jrue\Grant on the books for $73.6 in 27/28 & $69 in 26/27

According to Spotrac, Saraly cap for 27/28 is $173.7 & in 26/27 the cap is $165.4

[Wizenheimer]

Since in Deni's last year he makes only $11.8mil, POR can only offer him 140% of that amount, which is $16.6mil roughly. To offer him more than that they need to be UNDER the salary cap, therein lies the problem

Hard to know salary obligation so far out but we can assume:
- Camara (if he does not take the 4yr/$89 deal) will be at\north of $30mil
- Sharpe (if he doesn't take the Smith Jr 5yr\$122 deal) will also be north of $30
- Scoot will be at $35?
- Yang @ $7.5
- Clingan's cap hold will be @ $29m
- 1-2 or more draft picks (26' and\or 27' at anywhere from $10-15mil
- Plus whatever other contracts they have on the books 3 years from now. It is doubtful they would not have a few other contracts

That is roughly $146 or so, not factoring in any other salary on the books, leaving $36+ mil or so

Spotrac has the cap in 28/29 @ $182 million

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/_/year/2028

But again, the most concerning part, other than finding enough space under the cap to resign him, is letting him go to UFA in the first place, b\c then even if POR creates enough room under the cap, he could elect to sign somewhere else, just like Myles Turner did (and Aldridge did many years ago). Cannot risk letting him get to FA, therefore they need to resign him WHILE he is under contract, getting far enough under the cap to renegotiate his deal early.

The problem with that is, POR has Jrue\Grant on the books for $73.6 in 27/28 & $69 in 26/27

According to Spotrac, Saraly cap for 27/28 is $173.7 & in 26/27 the cap is $165.4

you're spinning your wheels here. If Avdija is worth re-signing, he's going to be getting 35-40M, at least. Might be in the 45-50M range three years from now. The Blazers will not be able to create anywhere close to 25-35M in space. Unless they are just a crappy team with little talent....and then it would make no sense to re-sign Avdija

[Walton1one]

And if POR does not win/progress enough these next 2 years (likely) he may want to leave anyway

For a cap specialist Cronin appears to be pretty lousy IMO

It can be done (resigning Deni) but bringing on Jrue made that much more difficult, all to make a playin (also giving up 26’ 1st if they make playoffs, which is slated to be very strong) absolute insanity….

He really is going to doom this team to mediocrity, only hope is things backfire this season and they miss playoffs again, then hopefully new owners can come in, clean house and try to right the ship (or just tear it all down again)

[PDXKnight]

And if POR does not win/progress enough these next 2 years (likely) he may want to leave anyway

For a cap specialist Cronin appears to be pretty lousy IMO

It can be done (resigning Deni) but bringing on Jrue made that much more difficult, all to make a playin (also giving up 26’ 1st if they make playoffs, which is slated to be very strong) absolute insanity….

He really is going to doom this team to mediocrity, only hope is things backfire this season and they miss playoffs again, then hopefully new owners can come in, clean house and try to right the ship (or just tear it all down again)

Id be surprised if there wasn't some form of shake up with new owners. Could see us offloading grant and jrue even if it means trading a 1st or stretching and I could see the new owners trading anyone who hasnt materialized (Rupert/murray) and letting rob/mathise go. Scoot could be gone as well if he doesnt take a leap this year but id imagine he plays out his rookie deal at least.

[JasonStern]

Called it! Dame's back.
And guess whose Chinese viewership took a massive jump during summer league?
But Silver publicly blasted the Moda Center, which I also mentioned is one of the oldest stadiums in the NBA.
So, I doubt the Blazers relocate before Dame's contract expires. I know that the Moda lease goes until 2030. It can be bought out, but that still provides future ownership plenty of time to figure things out regardless of what path they take. So, I still have relocation at 50% - just over a longer timeline. It again depends entirely on who buys the team and whether the league expands to 32.

[DusterBuster]

Just replying to up this title...