2025 Blazer Draft Prospects

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I recognize that KJ has some real talent and could be a really good player some day.

He also has a pretty high bust potential, you really gotta trust in your ability to identify the intangibles that makes for great BBIQ and game feel because that is what you are betting on with him. If he doesn't have that next level feel then he doesn't seem to be enough of an athlete, scorer or defender to stick in other roles.

[Dame Lizard]

I recognize that KJ has some real talent and could be a really good player some day.

He also has a pretty high bust potential, you really gotta trust in your ability to identify the intangibles that makes for great BBIQ and game feel because that is what you are betting on with him. If he doesn't have that next level feel then he doesn't seem to be enough of an athlete, scorer or defender to stick in other roles.

Agree.

Someone like Coward seems like a no-brainer selection for Portland. Low bust potential and strong upside, plus helps the team from Day 1 which seems important for Portland, particularly in the midst of a sale.

[Norm2953]

I would wonder about investing a late lottery pick in SG, when Portland has to think about an
extension for Sharpe. If they extend Sharpe, I could at least see KJ playing alongside of Scoot
and Sharpe.

I'd love to trade down with the OKC Thunder. Let them take whoever they want at 11 for they can't
really use two more rookies on a crowded roster. Tankathon was Coward and Beringer picked at
15,24

[Walton1one]

Nice breakdown of Penda, Newell & Essengue here

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=EMPyn6S6ZWmrFTD1kXeMkA

[Walton1one]

Jakucionis & Demin can both play on/off ball and both are good\elite level passers, for a team lacking in AST\rate, that (& their positional flexibility) would seem to be important

This came from swish theory, posted above, section on Penda and I think it kind of explains the appeal of Demin, and maybe why POR worked out\is interested in Penda?

[quote]Wing-sized passers are always, always at a premium in the league[|quote]

Maybe this is the type of player that POR is targeting? Who needs shooting (Demin\Penda), right?

[Walton1one]

Latest ESPN mock has POR taking Carter Bryant, Woo again making the call, have a sneaking suspicion that they are not being forthright here for a reason. It will be interesting to see if there is another mock in a day or two and if Givony is the one who picks for POR and who that player is.

Bryant has had a positive predraft process and appears ticketed for the late lottery, with interest coming from Phoenix following the Suns' trade in at No. 10, and Portland at No. 11 and Atlanta at No. 13 closely linked as landing spots.
The Trail Blazers appear set at center with Donovan Clingan long-term as well as Deandre Ayton still under contract, but are otherwise positioned to target the best available talent here, having worked out most of the names projected in this range. Bryant would give them additional shooting, perimeter size and positional versatility working in behind Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara.
While Bryant isn't expected to create much of his own offense in the near future, his ability to shoot from range, add value as a passer, and guard all over defensively with his excellent physical tools gives him a realistic pathway to becoming a lineup fixture. -- Woo

[dckingsfan]

I would wonder about investing a late lottery pick in SG, when Portland has to think about an
extension for Sharpe. If they extend Sharpe, I could at least see KJ playing alongside of Scoot
and Sharpe.

I'd love to trade down with the OKC Thunder. Let them take whoever they want at 11 for they can't
really use two more rookies on a crowded roster. Tankathon was Coward and Beringer picked at
15,24

I say no to a Sharpe extension and still would want to do the trade down...

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Jakucionis & Demin can both play on/off ball and both are good\elite level passers, for a team lacking in AST\rate, that (& their positional flexibility) would seem to be important

I am not sure Portland should be drafting with the mentality of covering up our current weaknesses but what I really want to muse about is whether assist rate even works like that.

The general process of "oh we are weak at *STAT* so draft player with high *STAT*" works for some things better than others. Rebounding? Sure, that works. There is some nuance in how a team uses a player (crashing offensive boards, getting back in transition) and some nuance about players who impact team rebounding more than the stats would indicate (Robin Lopez used to do this very well) but in general you put a player who is good at rebounding on the floor and your team will get more rebounds. Defense and stock numbers, yeah similar to rebounding. Again some nuance in how a player is used and whether the numbers actually capture their full impact but in general, better defenders on the floor means better defense.

But does assist rate work the same? I am hesitant because assist rate is so much more context dependent than those other aspects. For one, to have a decent assist rate the team needs to put the ball in your hands often, which means being able to carry a pretty decent usage rate, and this is something more players struggle with than we might imagine. A lot of players are limited in how much they can really do because the more they handle the ball the more of a target they are for defenses to pressure. Like you could be the greatest scorer in the world but if you cough the ball up easily under double teams or against an elite POA defender then it doesn't matter how good you score you wont ever get to that point. So in order to carry a significant usage in this league that you need to not turn the ball over, you need to have the speed or guile to get to the spots coach wants to initiate the offense from and you need to be able to score enough that defenses cannot sag off you and cover passing lanes.

In order to ever achieve a decent assist rate in this league there are quite a few pre-requisites, it isn't just a plug and play stat but something that you have to be good at a lot of different things before you ever have the opportunity to do it.

Good post in the Demin draft thread:

Early in the NBA, his role will be pared down to what he does great - facilitate.

The problem is that such a role doesn't really exist in the NBA. To justify having the ball in your hands, you need to be able to deal with ball pressure, stress defenses and create advantages. And if you don't have the ball in your hands because you can't do those things, you need to react to how defenses play you – whether that is shooting the ball, attacking off the dribble, moving off the ball and/or making the right passes. There really is no role in which a player is asked to focus on facilitating and doing little else. NBA defenses are way too sophisticated and strong for that.

[Walton1one]

The reality is POR has a major issue with assists = ball movement and as a result a poor half court offense, and is it really a big surprise?

PG Simons, ISO heavy
SG Camara, finisher
SF Grant - ISO heavy
PF Avdija - secondary facilitator\scorer
C Ayton ISO heavy

Sharpe ISO heavy
Scoot facilitator
DC finisher
Thybulle finisher
Banton ISO+ heavy

There is your current 10 man rotation and your best facilitator is coming off the bench, you have 5 guys who are heavy ISO guys, and another 3 pure finisher types, not good

That is why a guy like Jakucionis or Demin would be an intriguing fit, because both can facilitate, Jakucionis can shoot and facilitate. Demin is a borderline elite facilitator (theoretical shooter), meaning if they are going to keep all those ISO scoring players on the team (or even if not), it might be good to have a player around who can get them the ball/move it around, rather than watching a series of Simons\Grant\Ayton\Sharpe & Banton go 1v1/2/3

Outside of Scoot & Avdija 9x out of 10 those 5 players are creating for themselves, often poorly, and then if they can’t get the shot they want dumping it to other ISO guys or a play finisher like Camara\DC\Thybulle whom 9x out of 10 when the ball cones to them, it goes up rather than moves through the offense

Can’t win meaningful games with that kind of play style, those kind of players, especially since not one of them is a star level player, and BTW, it did not work with star level ISO players in the playoffs either

[Dame Lizard]

The reality is POR has a major issue with assists = ball movement and as a result a poor half court offense, and is it really a big surprise?

PG Simons, ISO heavy
SG Camara, finisher
SF Grant - ISO heavy
PF Avdija - secondary facilitator\scorer
C Ayton ISO heavy

Sharpe ISO heavy
Scoot facilitator
DC finisher
Thybulle finisher
Banton ISO+ heavy

There is your current 10 man rotation and your best facilitator is coming off the bench, you have 5 guys who are heavy ISO guys, and another 3 pure finisher types, not good

That is why a guy like Jakucionis or Demin would be an intriguing fit, because both can facilitate, Jakucionis can shoot and facilitate. Demin is a borderline elite facilitator (theoretical shooter), meaning if they are going to keep all those ISO scoring players on the team (or even if not), it might be good to have a player around who can get them the ball/move it around, rather than watching a series of Simons\Grant\Ayton\Sharpe & Banton go 1v1/2/3

Outside of Scoot & Avdija 9x out of 10 those 5 players are creating for themselves, often poorly, and then if they can’t get the shot they want dumping it to other ISO guys or a play finisher like Camara\DC\Thybulle whom 9x out of 10 when the ball cones to them, it goes up rather than moves through the offense

Can’t win meaningful games with that kind of play style, those kind of players, especially since not one of them is a star level player, and BTW, it did not work with star level ISO players in the playoffs either

I'm not sure why you're worried about roster composition when our biggest problem is that we lack a star.

We could have the perfect playmaking addition to our team, but we'd still suck.

We should be drafting the play with the highest likely upside, and then once we identify who are core pieces are (in addition to Deni and Toumani, because frankly nobody else on the roster is a lock-in imo), then we can worry about fit.

[Walton1one]

Yeah, but POR management is the one talking about being a playoff team next year, I don’t disagree with you

I also don’t think Jakucionis\Demin have anymore limited upside than a lot of the other theoretical “tools” players listed in this range, so IMO best of both worlds, can help\shore up deficiencies now and have upside to be something more

[BlazersBroncos]

Demin shouldn’t be grouped with KJ. The only trait he has over Kasparas is size.

KJ is bettter at literally everything else.

[Walton1one]

The size though is a big factor in his favor, as is the IQ\feel and elite playmaking capability

I like Jakucionis more b/c I buy the shooting and I buy the craft\IQ overcoming the physical deficiencies

[oldfishermen]

Size does not matter, if the player chockes under pressure.

Demin shoots and plays great, when not guarded. But his game falls apart under pressure.

[Walton1one]

Looked good in the NCAA tournament though? Thought he looked pretty impressive overall?

15-4-2
11-8-8
15-2-7

[oldfishermen]

Looked good in the NCAA tournament though? Thought he looked pretty impressive overall?

15-4-2
11-8-8
15-2-7

Was Demin impressive?

Demin was inefficient taking a lot of shots to get his points. And shied away from really guarding anyone.

Tourny stats
FG% 42.9
3P% 28.6
With no one guarding him. FT% 100.

[Dame Lizard]

The size though is a big factor in his favor, as is the IQ\feel and elite playmaking capability

I like Jakucionis more b/c I buy the shooting and I buy the craft\IQ overcoming the physical deficiencies

Size is good in basketball for many reasons: rebounding, defense, scoring and court vision.

He really only uses his size for one of those aspects. This the whole "Demin is a really big PG" is such an overhyped narrative imo, because he doesn't actually use much of his size to his advantage. If we looked at Ben Simmons on the other hand, for as horrible as his scoring is, he provides elite defense and elite rebounding at least.

[Walton1one]

Really big facilitator, with multi positional capabilities, those types of players are rare

He is young, needs to get stronger, you are betting the shot comes around m, he is a developmental guy who has some utility now, but if the tools develop he could be a home run pick, chances of that happening though? Unknown

I get not liking him, I think he is a risky pick as well, but his potential upside is huge

[Norm2953]

It'll be an interesting 2025-26 Blazers team if they keep Jrue and add Carter Bryant as their pick at 11,

Blazers would have Bryant, Camara, Deni and Grant up front with DC/Ayton with Scoot, Sharpe, Jrue and
Thybulle in the BC.

A team heavy on defenders that might struggle to score on a lot of nights but their defense will keep them
in most games

[Walton1one]

“After the Trail Blazers traded Simons for Holiday, Kasparas Jakucionis suddenly emerged as a real target for Portland, sources said,” Siegel reported. “Jakucionis recently had a private workout with the team the day before this trade was made, and his playmaking abilities would instantly provide depth to the Blazers' second unit.”