Downtown wrote:Like everyone else I hope Aldridge decides to stay and accept the maximum contract offer. But I don't pretend to know a thing about which way he's leaning. And I think he would be making a mistake not to at least explore his options and listen to teams pitches in what they are prepared to do in order to lure him to their teams. Being a top tier free agent and having control in your own hands only comes around once or twice in a players career so you better take advantage of it.
But if we are discussing what would be the Blazers best options if he did tell them he's gone then I think some of the pieces Houston has are the best for Portland, more so than Dallas or San Antonio if Texas is indeed where Aldridge wants to move to. And although I don't know what kind of cap issues arise, I'm just going with players I think could work.
While none of these guys can give Portland what Aldridge does I think players such as Jones, who is underrated in my opinion, Capella, Montiejunas, and even KJ McDaniels, all would give the Blazers much better depth and some young potential, especially combined with McCollum and Leonard, both of whom have done enough lately to change my opinion of them as far as potential.
I think Portland's ability to get any value in a trade for LMA would be directly related to how close the other team could get to the cap-space to sign Aldridge outright, and how much they'd have to sacrifice to get there
Theoretically then, you're right, Houston would probably offer Portland the best opportunity for getting value back.
to start with, they'd have to sacrifice quite a bit to get anywhere close to the necessary space, and I'm not sure they could get there. Apparently, Corey brewer already declined his option
so, this would be their guaranteed salary picture:
Dwight Howard $22,359,364
James Harden $15,756,438
Trevor Ariza $8,193,030
Pablo Prigioni $1,734,572
Terrence Jones $2,489,530
Donatas Motiejunas $2,288,205
Clint Capela $1,242,720
Joey Dorsey $1,015,421
Nick Johnson $845,059
about 56 million. That's for only 9 players so add 3 roster charges bringing their 'payroll' to about 57.5 million. That would leave them about 9 million shy of the needed space.
and keep in mind, that does not account for the 18th pick in the draft (pelicans), or the cap-holds of Patrick Beverly and Josh Smith
obviously, a deal could get done if it was Ariza and Jones for Aldridge. That might even leave enough room for Houston to absorb Beverly's cap-hold. But I don't think the Blazers would have any interest in Ariza's long-term deal. I suppose they might if they were thinking they would cut loose from Batum either in trade or when his contract expires. Another option would be if a 3rd team with cap-space or an interesting player or two wanted Ariza and was willing to send picks and/or players to Portland
Ideally, if Aldridge wanted to go to Houston, the two teams could get an agreement in place early, before the draft, and that 18th pick would be part of the deal
or, if the Blazers, knowing Aldridge was leaving, were willing to play hardball with Lopez, they could ask for Motiejunas as a form of insurance is Lopez leaves. The problem with that, in my view, is that Lillard, Leonard, Jones, and Motiejunas would all be 4th year RFA's at the same time. That would be bad timing in terms of the cap, especially considering they'd all be getting new contracts under the parameters of the new TV deal and a 90 million salary cap
hell, maybe the Blazers could even include a trade of Blake for a re-signed Patrick Beverly although I'd expect Beverly will be a too high-priced backup
And because none of these players have big contracts(yet), it would still allow Olshey to go after and higher end power forward or centre in free agency to try and mitigate the loss of Aldridge.
you may be significantly overestimating the amount of cap-space Portland would have, especially if Afflalo doesn't opt-out. Portland would be at about 41 million in salary (including the 23rd pick), and the cap-holds of Matthews and Lopez would add 20 million. So that would leave around 6 million in space before accounting for any returning salary in an Aldridge trade. Portland could clear about 12 million in space by renouncing Lopez and waiving Kaman, but that would leave Leonard, Jones, and perhaps Motiejunas as the only bigs, and that's not even close to what the Blazers would need
But make no mistake, I'm still in the camp that wants to see the entire core back, plus a better perimeter defender sixth man type like Aflalo was supposed to be for them. But I'm also realistic that being able to keep all three of Aldridge, Mathews, and Lopez might be a difficult task for Olshey.
yeah, it's going to be a difficult task, but by god, that's the task Olshey has been pointing at for 3 off-seasons by deferring any significant bench-building. He's had some plan in place apparently, and if it starts by losing Aldridge to free agency, it will have been an unmitigated failure, unless somehow, he can turn water into wine
I'm rather pessimistic at this point. I did not like Aldridge's body language at all in this Memphis series. he looked kind of checked out. He wasn't moving like he usually does, but then, it can be hard to move normally with one foot out the door
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