2019 Offseason, June 30th 3PM PT.

[d-train]

Here's a good article about a guy that knows a little about building good NBA teams.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nba.com/amp/league/article/2019/04/24/jerry-west-bright-future-clippers-free-agency

[DusterBuster]

Seems likely the Blazers are losing their assistant coaches this summer. Pretty much ever team with a vacancy at HC has requested and been grated permission to interview Tibbetts and Vanderpool.

[Wizenheimer]

interesting tweet from Kanter:

Read on Twitter

might just be talking about focusing only on the playoffs, but might mean he'd be willing to sign for less. Two year tax-MLE with a player option for the 2nd season. He opts out and the Blazers can re-sign him on early-bird rights for 9.6M. That would be 15M for two years...might be enough

[dunlop212]

From press reports he is adamant about playing despite pain and injury risk. I 'm rehabbing a frozen shoulder, and appreciate what he is going through. My goodness, his whole game involves raising his arms. What a locker room that must be.

[Norm2953]

I do suspect in a league where a number of teams will have cap space, Portland will be able to attach
their pick to probably Meyers to get some needed room to sign their players. Those teams who likely
will strike out in free agency can pick up a free pick and still punt their cap space into next summer.

It will be fascinating to see what Portland does this summer for improvement likely the only sure move
will be to sign Aminu to new deal. Olshey does well when he's shopping for guys looking for prove it
deals and perhaps a successful Portland playoff run will open some eyes toward signing with Portland.

[d-train]

I doubt Blazers would need to include a 1st round pick with Leonard if they want to trade him. Obviously, anything that reduces your options jeopardizes your ability to get a fair or good deal. If Blazers were dumb enough to construct a false situation that required them to trade Leonard, they would probably lose some value. If Blazers were even dumber and created a false scenario that required they trade Leonard to a small select group of teams, they would probably even lose more value. The good news is Blazers aren't dumb and would choose to keep all their good players rather than create an alternate more negative reality.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Turner is the guy they should look to move first, even at the cost of a pick.

[d-train]

Turner is the guy they should look to move first, even at the cost of a pick.

The biggest problem trading Turner is replacing him. We need Turner or a player like him. We have many good players so we might not always choose to play Turner, but there are certainly some situations or matchups that we are better for having Turner.

[Wizenheimer]

Turner is the guy they should look to move first, even at the cost of a pick.

I doubt that a single 1st round pick would be enough.

early this season, Brooklyn took Faried and Arthur off Denver's hands in a trade that added around 19M in salary to the Nets' cap. But the Nets got Jared Dudley, a first and two 2nd round picks for doing so. And this summer there will be a bunch of teams looking to dump expiring contracts; the expiring-contract-for-TPE will be a buyer's market

but for fun, assume the Blazers are able to dump Turner and they only have to take back 6M or so in salary. That would put them around 115M in guaranteed salary...for 10 players. The CBA rule is you will be hard-capped at the apron if you use your full-MLE. The apron will be 138M. The cap-holds for Kanter, Aminu, Layman, Hood, and Curry total about 24.3M. So the Blazers would be over the apron and couldn't use the full-MLE unless they renounced the rights to Aminu and one of Hood/Curry. And even then the math would be tight

a big consideration is that the full-MLE is 9M and the tax-MLE is 5.5M. Portland would probably be giving up a 1st and a 2nd just to gain 3.5M in exception money. Might not be worth it. I guess main thing is we don't know how much stomach Jody Allen will have for a big tax bill next season

Blazers will be saddled with 34.5M in dumb Olshey decisions next season. Might be easiest to just let the clock on those decisions run out

[DusterBuster]

Turner is the guy they should look to move first, even at the cost of a pick.

I doubt that a single 1st round pick would be enough.

early this season, Brooklyn took Faried and Arthur off Denver's hands in a trade that added around 19M in salary to the Nets' cap. But the Nets got Jared Dudley, a first and two 2nd round picks for doing so. And this summer there will be a bunch of teams looking to dump expiring contracts; the expiring-contract-for-TPE will be a buyer's market

Are we viewing Jared Dudley as anything beyond a neutral-at-best inclusion? If so, I gotta check my calendar to make sure I didn't accidentally travel back in time.

You are right, it may cost more than a first to dump Turner for a TPE, but not that much more by your own example. Portland seems to have an endless supply of 2nd rounders, so if they trade some of those... w/e.

I'm amazed you're STILL so down on those contracts now that they're expiring deals. I get there's going to be a lot of expiring deals out there next summer, but they're at least semi-tradable assets at this point. You're right, they may end up where the Blazers just have to keep them and let them expire, but at least now there's a possibility of a trade using Turner and Leonard. I guess I just don't see the need for the glass-half-empty outlook here anymore.

[Wizenheimer]

Turner is the guy they should look to move first, even at the cost of a pick.

I doubt that a single 1st round pick would be enough.

early this season, Brooklyn took Faried and Arthur off Denver's hands in a trade that added around 19M in salary to the Nets' cap. But the Nets got Jared Dudley, a first and two 2nd round picks for doing so. And this summer there will be a bunch of teams looking to dump expiring contracts; the expiring-contract-for-TPE will be a buyer's market

Are we viewing Jared Dudley as anything beyond a neutral-at-best inclusion? If so, I gotta check my calendar to make sure I didn't accidentally travel back in time.

You are right, it may cost more than a first to dump Turner for a TPE, but not that much more by your own example. Portland seems to have an endless supply of 2nd rounders, so if they trade some of those... w/e.

I'm amazed you're STILL so down on those contracts now that they're expiring deals. I get there's going to be a lot of expiring deals out there next summer, but they're at least semi-tradable assets at this point. You're right, they may end up where the Blazers just have to keep them and let them expire, but at least now there's a possibility of a trade using Turner and Leonard. I guess I just don't see the need for the glass-half-empty outlook here anymore.

sure, Dudley generally sucks. But for some reason, Brooklyn wanted him; or maybe they just wanted the 2nd they got for exchanging Arthur for Dudley. It may be noteworthy that as much as Dudley sucks, he averaged the same amount of minutes in the playoffs as Turner and Meyers combined

as far as the half glass...I've always been realistic about how tradeable those contracts would be as expirings and a big reason was looking ahead to this summer and seeing that sea of expiring contracts around the league coming due. 2019 has been set up as a buyer's market since 2016. Maybe Olshey can find a buyer, but I'm skeptical he wants to pay what would likely be the price

and as I said just gaining an extra 3.5M in exception room might make the price impractical.

if Kanter can't play and Meyers steps in and does OK, maybe he'd gain a little trade value. Still even if he was traded without any salary coming back, I doubt there's enough margin to allow the Blazers being comfortable using the full-MLE

[dunlop212]

OK, so we keep our FRP and the two overpaid stiffs, let Hood, Kanter, and Curry go, let Nurc fully rehab next year, it is a lottery team. There would be a nice core for the year after that. Would we have some dough to sign talent then? Or does all the money go to resign Simons and Collins?

[Wizenheimer]

OK, so we keep our FRP and the two overpaid stiffs, let Hood, Kanter, and Curry go, let Nurc fully rehab next year, it is a lottery team. There would be a nice core for the year after that. Would we have some dough to sign talent then? Or does all the money go to resign Simons and Collins?

Portland is right around 127M in guaranteed salary for 10 players; tax line is 132M, apron 138M.

Damian Lillard $29,802,321
C.J. McCollum $27,556,959
Evan Turner $18,606,556
Jusuf Nurkic $12,000,000
Maurice Harkless $11,511,234
Meyers Leonard $11,286,515
Zach Collins $4,240,200
Anfernee Simons $2,149,560
Skal Labissiere $2,338,847
Gary Trent Jr. $1,416,852

Andrew Nicholson (stretched) $2,844,430
Anderson Varejao (stretched) $1,913,345
Festus Ezeli (stretched) $333,333

$126,000,152

Nurkic had a 1.25M incentive clause which he fulfilled, so next season, that will be considered a likely bonus and counted against the cap. So that's how you get to 127M

and if Portland keeps their 1st round pick they'd be at 129M, only 3M below the tax line

then there are the free agent cap-holds:

Enes Kanter $1,618,486
Rodney Hood $4,167,466
Jake Layman $1,931,189
Al-Farouq Aminu $13,218,500
Seth Curry $3,354,000

$24,289,641

those cap-holds for Hood and Curry are the same as their non-bird max. That's the most Portland can offer them unless they use an MLE. Hood has been real disappointing so far in the playoffs so if Portland wanted to re-sign him that non-Bird amount should be more than sufficient. if any team offers more, nice knowing ya Rodney

the biggest question is how much luxury tax Jody Allen wants to pay. Aminu would be a huge loss even though he's frustrating to watch at times. I could be wrong, but I'm guessing he'll get somewhere around the MLE, 8-10M. Re-signing him alone could put Portland 5-7M above the tax line

Blazers will at the least have the 5.5M tax-MLE to use. For me, if it was a choice between Kanter and Curry, I'd choose Kanter. But I'm not sure if he'd sign for that little. If the Blazers use their full tax-MLE they'd be 11-13M over the tax line

then there is Layman. For a while there he was looking like one of those low-paid RFA's that would get a big offer. But the last month of the season and playoffs have knocked a lot of his shine off. Say he's re-signed for 5M (too high?). Portland is now 16-18M over the tax line which yields a 32-38M tax bill...yikes! It's going to be quite a juggling act
*********************************************************************

as for you question about 2020-21:

Damian Lillard $31,626,953
C.J. McCollum $29,354,152
Jusuf Nurkic $12,888,889
Zach Collins $5,406,255
Andrew Nicholson (stretched) $2,844,430
Anderson Varejao (stretched) $1,913,345
Anfernee Simons $2,252,040
Skal Labissiere $3,484,882
Gary Trent Jr. $1,663,861

$91,434,807

add 5 roster charges and the Blazers are around 96M. That would leave them with 20M in space (projected cap 116m). But that doesn't account for the 2019 or 2020 first round picks. It also doesn't account for any contracts they sign this summer that last longer than a year, or any cap-holds

[HoopsFanAZ]

Harkless + Leonard + Trent ( + a future protected 1st if necessary) for Aldridge.
No need to spend on Kanter. Aldridge would need to want out but already stated he wants to play with Lillard.
Some here would say it’s an overpay for LMA at age 33 (34 when the season starts), but it’s about contending for a title.

[JasonStern]

people are taking Kanter's remarks as altruistic, but the truth is that bigs haven't made the money in recent off-seasons that they have in the past. even if he walks, I suspect that Curry will be much harder to replace - unless Simons takes a leap. in fact, the Hood trade might have been Olshey foreshadowing this - although I may be giving him too much credit factoring in Hood's lack of bird rights.

as for Turner, I remain convinced that the plan is to trade him to a team looking to have cap space in 2020 in exchange for a longer contact owed less annually. question is just how bad of a contract Portland is going to get back given how many other teams also overpaid back in 2016.

if Kanter can't play and Meyers steps in and does OK, maybe he'd gain a little trade value.

go home, Wiz. you're drunk.

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looking at my avatar, I think I might be 10x as punchable as I would be otherwise.

[Wizenheimer]

people are taking Kanter's remarks as altruistic, but the truth is that bigs haven't made the money in recent off-seasons that they have in the past. even if he walks, I suspect that Curry will be much harder to replace - unless Simons takes a leap. in fact, the Hood trade might have been Olshey foreshadowing this - although I may be giving him too much credit factoring in Hood's lack of bird rights.

Bigs got paid big-time in 2016. like everybody else. Last year there was no cap-space and that's how Portland got Nurkic on a budget deal.

in 2017 (about the same cap-space league-wide as this coming summer):

* Blake Griffin got 34M/year
* Paul Millsap got 30M/year
* Zach Randolph got 12M/year
* Taj Gibson got 14M/year
* Kelly Olynyk got 12.5M/year
* Mason Plumlee got 13M/year

there were very few UFA centers that season, and maybe PF's will get more than C's. Still, Portland offering Kanter the tax-MLE looks like a low-ball offer

on the other hand, there might be several functional C's that would play for a vet minimum next season

as for Turner, I remain convinced that the plan is to trade him to a team looking to have cap space in 2020 in exchange for a longer contact owed less annually. question is just how bad of a contract Portland is going to get back given how many other teams also overpaid back in 2016.

to start with, right now, 29 of 30 teams have cap-space in 2020 in terms of guaranteed money. It's really hard to get a handle on which teams will shoot for 2020 cap-space

it's easier to look at contracts and try and find any that fit the bill:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/players.html

at the minimum, the Blazers would need to gain 5M in 'space' IMO

* Turner and a pick for Cody Zeller? It drops Blazer payroll by 5M and would add a C replacement at the same time negating the worry about Kanter. But Zeller is always injured and Charlotte will have over 50M in space anyway.

I look at that list and I really don't see many candidates, and when I do, the other teams will already have plenty of cap-space in 2020

if the Blazers are going to go that route and land an essentially useless player, why not stretch instead? That would be a 6.2M stain on the cap for three years but would clear 12.4M off the books this summer. Because of that stain though I can only see a stretch being an option if JA says no to more luxury tax. But, I think 6.2M in dead salary for 3 years might be better than 12M in live salary for 2 or 3 years attached to a player who rarely leaves the bench

I wish Olshey would have at least been wise enough to put team options for the 4th seasons on the Turner and Meyers contracts. Better yet, make them non-guaranteed so they could be good trade assets around draft time

[Blazinaway]

people are taking Kanter's remarks as altruistic, but the truth is that bigs haven't made the money in recent off-seasons that they have in the past. even if he walks, I suspect that Curry will be much harder to replace - unless Simons takes a leap. in fact, the Hood trade might have been Olshey foreshadowing this - although I may be giving him too much credit factoring in Hood's lack of bird rights.

Bigs got paid big-time in 2016. like everybody else. Last year there was no cap-space and that's how Portland got Nurkic on a budget deal.

in 2017 (about the same cap-space league-wide as this coming summer):

* Blake Griffin got 34M/year
* Paul Millsap got 30M/year
* Zach Randolph got 12M/year
* Taj Gibson got 14M/year
* Kelly Olynyk got 12.5M/year
* Mason Plumlee got 13M/year

there were very few UFA centers that season, and maybe PF's will get more than C's. Still, Portland offering Kanter the tax-MLE looks like a low-ball offer

on the other hand, there might be several functional C's that would play for a vet minimum next season

as for Turner, I remain convinced that the plan is to trade him to a team looking to have cap space in 2020 in exchange for a longer contact owed less annually. question is just how bad of a contract Portland is going to get back given how many other teams also overpaid back in 2016.

to start with, right now, 29 of 30 teams have cap-space in 2020 in terms of guaranteed money. It's really hard to get a handle on which teams will shoot for 2020 cap-space

it's easier to look at contracts and try and find any that fit the bill:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/players.html

at the minimum, the Blazers would need to gain 5M in 'space' IMO

* Turner and a pick for Cody Zeller? It drops Blazer payroll by 5M and would add a C replacement at the same time negating the worry about Kanter. But Zeller is always injured and Charlotte will have over 50M in space anyway.

I look at that list and I really don't see many candidates, and when I do, the other teams will already have plenty of cap-space in 2020

if the Blazers are going to go that route and land an essentially useless player, why not stretch instead? That would be a 6.2M stain on the cap for three years but would clear 12.4M off the books this summer. Because of that stain though I can only see a stretch being an option if JA says no to more luxury tax. But, I think 6.2M in dead salary for 3 years might be better than 12M in live salary for 2 or 3 years attached to a player who rarely leaves the bench

I wish Olshey would have at least been wise enough to put team options for the 4th seasons on the Turner and Meyers contracts. Better yet, make them non-guaranteed so they could be good trade assets around draft time

Interesting Wiz, after reading what you wrote I think POR stretching ET may be something a lot more viable than I had thought given other options. May as well keep Meyers given our C situation next year, and though I'd rather not stretch ET unless something more attractive comes or Olshey shocks us with a McCollum trade for a less salaried good player and capspace, an ET stretch may be a reasonable option, really don't want to do it but it is an option and as you said could depend a lot on JA

[Norm2953]

There will be a lot of LA back to Portland talk for pop undoubtedly knows SA time is likely over.

Likely ET will be needed in any deal for trade purposes but I wonder if they would really swallow
ET, Meyers and picks to begin their rebuild.

[GEE]

There will be a lot of LA back to Portland talk for pop undoubtedly knows SA time is likely over.

Likely ET will be needed in any deal for trade purposes but I wonder if they would really swallow
ET, Meyers and picks to begin their rebuild.

It's got legs, but Pop just sent Leonard to Canada vs. Los Angeles, so there's that. It's not my favorite plan forward considering how LA left us, but I think if you're Olshey, it would be smart to put ET, Leonard & 2 1sts on the table, knowing it also saves them 25 mil. Just leave it on the table for them. Ya never know.

[Norm2953]

Pop apparently is close to an extension on a new contract. He's not coming back on a rebuild so I would
presume any LA trade back to Portland would not be a salary dump and would have to make sense for
them from a basketball POV.

I'd still try to dump LA on Portland for Harkless, ET and picks. Likely they would ask for Simons or Collins
in the deal.