2019 Offseason, June 30th 3PM PT.

[d-train]

I predict Blazers will add a 4th year to their 3 year streak of getting better every year. I also predict a 3rd year in a row of doom and gloom armchair prognosticators here predicting awful scenarios that never come to pass. It's amazing how some people can be continuously wrong and yet are never ashamed to weigh in with their idiotic skepticism.

[JasonStern]

in 2017 (about the same cap-space league-wide as this coming summer):

* Blake Griffin got 34M/year
* Paul Millsap got 30M/year
* Zach Randolph got 12M/year
* Taj Gibson got 14M/year
* Kelly Olynyk got 12.5M/year
* Mason Plumlee got 13M/year

in 2018:
Jorda - 1y/max
Nurkic - 4y/$48m
Baynes - 2y/$11m
Howard - 2y/$11m
Cousins - 1y/$5.3m
Davis - 1y/$4.4m
Noel, Okafor, Pachulia, McGee - veteran's minimum.

it's a shooter's league. I'd be more stunned if Curry doesn't get paid than if Portland couldn't find a cheap stopgap center.

as for Turner, I remain convinced that the plan is to trade him to a team looking to have cap space in 2020 in exchange for a longer contact owed less annually. question is just how bad of a contract Portland is going to get back given how many other teams also overpaid back in 2016.

if the Blazers are going to go that route and land an essentially useless player, why not stretch instead?

I never said the player has to be useless. the team has plenty of use for an overpaid stopgap at backup center and small forward... possibly power forward, too, if they decide they can't afford to retain Aminu.

[d-train]

The priority now is to win as many playoff games as Blazers can win with the our current team.

This summer Blazers will have a plan to respond to all the options they have. First, Blazers have to verify that Lillard and CJ are still onboard with being the nucleus of the team. I'm sure everyone remembers the summer of 2015 when Aldridge decided he had greener pastures in San Antonio. You never know when a key player will decide to pull the plug on a team.

Assuming Lillard and CJ are onboard with continuing their careers in Portland, Blazers have to decide if they are going to be hardcaped or if they have better opportunities by expanding team salary beyond the apron. The team will have options to go either way. The direction the team takes with salary is really the first issue the Blazers have to address because it will determine how they make the rest of their choices.

Until we see some actual action taken by the team, we have no clue what is going to happen next. If Olshey makes a big trade taking a player with a huge contract, we know Blazers are going to take salary beyond the apron and will pay lots of luxury taxes. If Olshey makes moves that reduce salary, maybe Blazers are going to hardcap themselves and have a plan to use the full MLE.

Either way, I expect Blazers will resign Aminu unless Lillard or CJ wants a trade and Blazers pull the plug on this team. I also expect Blazers will tender a QO to Layman, which he will eventually accept. I doubt Blazers and Layman agree to a long term contract. I think Hood and Curry will accept 2-year contracts starting at the early-bird exception. Kanter is a tougher question. I'm optimistic Kanter will stay, but you never know what will happen in free agency. Blazers will have either $5.6M or $9.2M to offer Kanter. Both numbers are probably less than Kanter will be offered elsewhere.

Edit: I forgot about the draft. I think the Blazers will try to trade their pick. I bet they tried to trade it last year. Our roster has too many young projects already and if we add another it should be a 2nd round pick or a dumpster dive free agent.

[Wizenheimer]

in 2017 (about the same cap-space league-wide as this coming summer):

* Blake Griffin got 34M/year
* Paul Millsap got 30M/year
* Zach Randolph got 12M/year
* Taj Gibson got 14M/year
* Kelly Olynyk got 12.5M/year
* Mason Plumlee got 13M/year

in 2018:
Jorda - 1y/max
Nurkic - 4y/$48m
Baynes - 2y/$11m
Howard - 2y/$11m
Cousins - 1y/$5.3m
Davis - 1y/$4.4m
Noel, Okafor, Pachulia, McGee - veteran's minimum.

it's a shooter's league. I'd be more stunned if Curry doesn't get paid than if Portland couldn't find a cheap stopgap center..

as I mentioned, last year was a complete aberration. There was the least amount of league-wide cap-space in 2018 in something like 11 years

this summer is NOT like last summer in terms of league-wide cap-space, it's a lot like 2017 (the year of my above list), even though there will be more cap-space this summer than there was in 2017

Kanter's value has likely gone up because so far in the playoffs he's demonstrated a willingness to work on defense and arguably outplayed Steven Adams

[skoharry]

if it were me I would let everyone go except kanter for sure 100% and aminu at 50%. I think while our bench was better than last season, we need to get rid of our ridiculous overpaid players like turner and leonard, and we don't need another unproven rookie. so I would do a package of turner, meyers, and our 1st round pick to a team that is looking to either rebuild or stock pile assets to pull off a major trade. so any team looking at trading for anthony davis, mike conley, bradley beal(maybe), john wall(maybe), andrew wiggins(maybe), or kevin love. we could also just do a trade where we get one or two good bench players. something like
POR gets cody zeller, Dwight Howard TPO, their 2019 and 2020 2nd round picks
CHA gets meyers leonard, ET, and our 2019 1st round pick.

POR gets evan fournier and 2019 2nd round pick
ORL gets meyer leonard, ET, and our 2019 1st round pick

POR gets andrew wiggins
MIN gets mike conley and POR 2019 1st
MEM gets ET, meyers leonard, and MIN 2019 1st.

POR gets robert covington, markieff morris TPO, MIN 2019 2nd, and tomas satoransky
MIN gets bradley beal
WAS gets meyers leonard, ET, andrew wiggins, MIN 2019 1st, and POR 2019 1st

[wco81]

Aren’t many of these questions going to be determined by how he team does in this second round series and any after it?

If the team breaks through — Barkley picks them to go to the Finals — they will more likely be inclined to keep as many of the players as possible.

[d-train]

Aren’t many of these questions going to be determined by how he team does in this second round series and any after it?

If the team breaks through — Barkley picks them to go to the Finals — they will more likely be inclined to keep as many of the players as possible.

No doubt the plan is to keep are players. The big challenge is keeping Kanter.

[Dzon Dilindzer]

im guessing neil olshey could give a first to get rid of evan turner and his salary and then resign some of these guys (kanter, hood, curry) if not all of them... there could be some dealings in the summer cause well have expiring bad contracts such as evan turner, harkless, meyers leonard) or we could wait one more year and let them become free agents

there would be money to spend in our salary cap and if neil olshey plays his cards right, very bright future awaits this team... he **** up really badly in the summer of 2016, but summers of 2019 and 2020 are great chance to clean his mess

im not sure if i would give him that chance though, were playing our future...

[Wizenheimer]

Aren’t many of these questions going to be determined by how he team does in this second round series and any after it?

If the team breaks through — Barkley picks them to go to the Finals — they will more likely be inclined to keep as many of the players as possible.

normally, this would probably be correct

but none of us know what the plans of Paul Allen's sister are or how much stomach she has for a big luxury tax bill

and what you're describing is something that cuts both ways. If the Blazers continue to do well, then the value of their free agents will likely climb well above what Portland can afford. The Blazers are strapped financially and have a straight-jacket on their flexibility

the only hope may be that the free agents love playing in Portland so much that they'll give the Blazers discounts, but that may not be realistic

[d-train]

Fans don't need to worry about luxury tax. We don't pay it.

Owners with winning team's don't NOT pay luxury taxes.

[Norm2953]

Actually fans pay a lot of the luxury taxes through ticket sales and advertising.

LIkely we'll be using our pick to dump enough salary to be able to sign some of our free agents
as long as the cost is reasonable. Teams that likely will strike out in free agency (Sacramento?)
will think nothing of swallowing the last year of Meyers and punt their cap space into 2020
as the price to pay for a FRP. Team improvement will come from Simons who will step into
Seth Curry's role next season. Dumping Meyers will likely lead to a another big body added to
the roster unless Skal steps into that role if Kanter leaves.

[d-train]

Actually fans pay a lot of the luxury taxes through ticket sales and advertising.

You are 100% wrong. Owners maximize all revenue streams (including ticket prices and advertising sales) based on the market. This is completely disconnected from costs. The only relationship is the effect the quality of the product has on demand. The CBA guarantees a team can't maintain a high quality product without eventually paying luxury tax.

[Roy The Natural]

Thoughts on this offseason:

Let Curry walk. Get Simons on the floor. He'll be ready to take 3rd guard time by next year IMO.

Keep Hood if he'll sign for cheap.

Try to keep Kanter for MLE type money.

Try and move Turner + a 1st rounder for a more valuable player on a cheaper contract.

Let Aminu walk. Ride with Collins/Harkless at the 4 for better or worse.

See if Layman will come back for cheap

[d-train]

Aminu is going to resign

Turner could be traded to improve resigning options for Kanter. Or, he could be traded in a deal for a more expensive player. He can't be traded for cap room and he can't be replaced with a better player using an exception created by trade.

[JasonStern]

the only hope may be that the free agents love playing in Portland so much that they'll give the Blazers discounts, but that may not be realistic

Kanter and Hood have both been on the record multiple times about how much they love the team, so I wouldn't be surprised if either took a slight pay cut to remain with Portland. but the key word is slight - I can't see either taking a ~50% hit to remain with Portland, which could be the best that Portland can offer either player given a lack of bird rights.

[Wizenheimer]

the only hope may be that the free agents love playing in Portland so much that they'll give the Blazers discounts, but that may not be realistic

Kanter and Hood have both been on the record multiple times about how much they love the team, so I wouldn't be surprised if either took a slight pay cut to remain with Portland. but the key word is slight - I can't see either taking a ~50% hit to remain with Portland, which could be the best that Portland can offer either player given a lack of bird rights.

Kanter might be difficult if all Portland offers is the tax-MLE of 5.5M. Blazers might be able to game it a little though by offering a 2 year deal with a player option for the 2nd year (wink-nod). Kanter then opts out and Portland gives him their max early Bird offer of 9.6M. This would essentially give Kanter a 2 year 'deal' of 15.1M, which is over 7.5M/year. If that would be enough, I don't know

except for that last game, Hood hasn't been impressive in the playoffs...more like disappointing. His non-Bird is 4.17M. Is that enough? If it wasn't and Portland wanted to keep him, they could repeat the offer process they made to Kanter; 2 year deal with a player option. His 2nd year max would be 7.29M. That would be the equivalent of a 2 year 'deal' for 11.46M. Again, I don't know if that would be enough but maybe

if they did the same thing with Curry, it could be a 2 year 'deal' for 9.22M

[DusterBuster]

I ain't even worrying about the summer yet. There'll be plenty of time to pour over what's next once this awesome postseason run is over.

[Norm2953]

I do find it curious we are so concerned about Kanter for he's the same guy who was released by the
Knicks and its not likely he's going to get a huge contract offer for he's not an unknown around the
league. More power to him if someone wants to offer him a contract above the MLE and he takes it.

I'm not worried about signing either Hood or Curry for if they decide to sign elsewhere for more money,
more power to them as well. There are lots of guys out there who will sign with Portland on a prove it
deal. This summer will be about getting the necessary room to sign next group of guys if need be and
improving the team by likely integrating Simons into the playing rotation.

Let's say we do a deal that brings in LA back to Portland and indeed integrate Simons into the rotation.
We re-sign Aminu to a reasonable extension but lose Curry, Hood and the guys who went in the LA deal,
(let's say Meyers and Harkless). We sign Kanter to a 1 year deal with a player option. Portland goes out
and signs more guys who will sign 1 year deals much like Curry to prove it deals.

[Wizenheimer]

Let's say we do a deal that brings in LA back to Portland and indeed integrate Simons into the rotation.
We re-sign Aminu to a reasonable extension but lose Curry, Hood and the guys who went in the LA deal,
(let's say Meyers and Harkless). We sign Kanter to a 1 year deal with a player option. Portland goes out
and signs more guys who will sign 1 year deals much like Curry to prove it deals.

Popovich is coming back next season and I'd doubt he'd do that so he can coach Turner/Harkless and Meyers instead of Aldridge, and there's no other contracts on Portland that would fetch Aldridge and his 26M salary. A future Portland draft pick or two won't turn that package around either

remember now, the Spurs were able to develop Derrick White & Bryn Forbes this season, and those two really started to look pretty good at the end of the season. And they will get Dejounte Murray back next season as well. And they won't need the expiring contracts either...they could have 40M in cap-space in 2020-21. They have no reason to trade Aldridge for what Portland could offer. I mean, Turner looks like crap right now and Meyers is getting DNP-CD's in the playoffs

[falcon107]

No, Kanter would not accept a MLE offer.
But Portland can offer him 1 year contract about 10 million, and I believe it can be acceptable to him.
But if Portland beats Denver to reach Conference Finals, he would get e lot more better offer.

It is still questionable when Nurkic returns, and how long it will take him to return back to his form. Portland needs a player to fill his place, and Kanter already proved that he can be that player.