FREE AGENCY 2024

[JRoy]

I'm about 77% convinced that Cronin will magically find his way into the worst possible outcome for next season: winning enough games early in the season to eliminate a chance at a top-5 pick in the best draft in years. Then around the trade deadline, after firmly establishing that Portland's vets are all deeply flawed and further degrading their trade value, and after seeing that the play-in was a no-fly zone form the beginning, pivoting into another late season tank that will be too little, too late

last season, it took 46 wins to just get the 10th seed in the West. Does anybody believe that this roster can climb from 21 wins to 46 wins?

Yep. Agreed. This is by far the most likely scenario.

If anybody gets traded it would be Simons--based on his comments about wanting to win at this stage of his career, and Olshey openly leaving him out of the "future" in his offseason pressers. Of course the return will be piss-poor, largely because veteran, above average, undersized SGs who don't play defense are niche players, not starters.

But I think the Blazers will hope for a bit of success in the early part of the season, and this will of course backfire...further tanking both Simons' and Grant's value at the deadline.

And 100% the Blazers will tank the end of the season again, as they should. There's no real reason to try and be competitive if you're almost guaranteed to miss the POs and there are actual benefits to losing.

Not Olshey, Crondome

[Walton1one]

Maybe it is just hopeful thinking, but Cronin’s statements about building around Scoot\Sharpe, no mention of Ant, more than once I think, Ant’s comments about wanting to win/be in the playoffs in Y6, and every player stopping by summer league except Ant\Grant & Thybulle sure seem conspicuous to me.

[BlazersBroncos]

Maybe it is just hopeful thinking, but Cronin’s statements about building around Scoot\Sharpe, no mention of Ant, more than once I think, Ant’s comments about wanting to win/be in the playoffs in Y6, and every player stopping by summer league except Ant\Grant & Thybulle sure seem conspicuous to me.

Could be the case. Could also be the case as with Herro that the market for guys with Ant's skillset just isnt there.

[Tim Lehrbach]

Without a backcourt upgrade or massive improvement from Scoot and Sharpe, there is zero chance this team competes for the playoffs/play-in. A top five pick is a safe bet.

[Walton1one]

I mean, I would not put it past Cronin to overvalue his players. I sincerely hope that is not the case, and maybe he is just a cool customer when it comes to making deals, & able/willing to wait until he absolutely has to make a trade.

I just would hate to see the team go into the year and waste minutes/wins/younger players’ development by playing\prioritizing Grant/Ant. Cronin can’t be that shortsided can he?

[JasonStern]

last season, it took 46 wins to just get the 10th seed in the West. Does anybody believe that this roster can climb from 21 wins to 46 wins?

With a veteran point guard addition yes, but I'm not sure 46 wins even gets you into the play-in. And even if it does, I don't see the Blazers making it out of the play-in. Would be a completely wasted season.

[Walton1one]

It isn't just missing the playoffs that POR needs, it is being one of the 4 worst teams in the NBA, if they have any desire to maximize their lottery odds

14% - 14% - 13.3% - 13.2%

Those are the lottery odds for the worst 4 records, after that, it starts to drop off precipitously. LY POR was at 13.2% for their pick and they dropped 3 spots to #7, hopefully, bad luck won't hit twice (DET may disagree). In a draft that could have up to 5-6 franchise-altering players in it, that means you want one of the 4 worst records in the NBA next year to give yourself the best possible chance. Especially for a team like POR, which is very reliant on the draft as a way to build\improve the talent on the team.

Now you can achieve that organically, by playing all the young guys, Scoot\Sharpe\Avdija\Camara\Clingan, likely helping them improve in the process, and see what exactly you have as core building pieces moving forward.

OR you can do the haphazard way that Cronin seems to prefer by playing guys like Grant\Ant\Thybulle major minutes until the All-Star break and then go into fake injury\tank mode and hope the NBA doesn't finally get some nerve and punish you for it.

We will find out in the next month or so what path Cronin prefers, he talks of leaning into the youth, but so far his action\non-action speaks to straddling the dual timeline of trying to appear competitive and then diving into tank mode. If that is the path he takes this year, it is a foolish risk to take, when the TRUE stakes (top 2025 pick) are so high for the future of this team. I sincerely hope he is not that shortsighted.

[Walton1one]

I would add that if Cronin does the vets until All-Star break then injury\tank mode, it is even MORE risky this year, given you have multiple teams pivoting to tank mode already: WAS, BRK, CHI, DET, UTA, TOR

[Pattycakes]

All Cronin has done this offseason is add two missing pieces (Deni/DC) and held firm that he wants equal value for all of our vet assets that may be generating interest.

How you guys manage to be so pessimistic about him constantly blows my friggin mind. It has to be bias at this point, cause he’s literally uno reversing us from a fateless treadmill to a top young core in.. a couple seasons?

Internet gonna internet. Never change

[Tim Lehrbach]

All Cronin has done this offseason is add two missing pieces (Deni/DC) and held firm that he wants equal value for all of our vet assets that may be generating interest.

How you guys manage to be so pessimistic about him constantly blows my friggin mind. It has to be bias at this point, cause he’s literally uno reversing us from a fateless treadmill to a top young core in.. a couple seasons?

Internet gonna internet. Never change

In a way I understand the points you make here and elsewhere. There is no evidence that Cronin has missed any opportunities to move Simons, Grant, or Ayton for value, and the Deni trade was a very good one. We can appreciate his work where it merits approval.

But others, including me, do not share your optimism for the roster as currently constructed. The vets are losers, the youngsters are not elite prospects, and the team lacks either a war chest of draft picks or an abundance of cap space/expiring contracts with which to obtain them. The coach has shown no aptitude to elevate the team's level of play above its pitiful talent level.

The present and future of this team are, to most of us, rather bleak. Management needs to own that. You say elsewhere that they are probably happy with the fanbase believing the franchise is bottoming out when it is really getting ready to compete. On the contrary, I think they were quite pleased with beginning the rebuild more than a year before trading Lillard, while allowing the fans to believe they were still trying to field a credible playoff contender. The team has been trending downward for, what, four years? There is little to show for this initially stealth, now full-blown, rebuild.

I want to get on board with rooting for this squad because, as I have said, I do not endorse tanking and I think that an ideal franchise emphasizes winning now and winning later and does not have to sacrifice the former for the latter. But you have to do both well, and when you don't, you end up in the dreaded "straddling the fence" mode of assembling a poor excuse for a playoff threat while acquiring and developing no legitimately exciting prospects. Personally, I don't think Portland is straddling the fence -- I think they've leaned very hard into the rebuild and have put together a nearly perfect roster for tanking without looking blatant in doing so -- but it's certainly the case that Blazers brass can neither roll out a contender nor boast of their blue chip young talents. This team sucks and will suck until something dramatic happens like striking lottery gold or unlikely leaps from Scoot and Sharpe.

It's a very tough job to rebuild or win, let alone both, but that's why he's paid millions to do it.

[PDXKnight]

All Cronin has done this offseason is add two missing pieces (Deni/DC) and held firm that he wants equal value for all of our vet assets that may be generating interest.

How you guys manage to be so pessimistic about him constantly blows my friggin mind. It has to be bias at this point, cause he’s literally uno reversing us from a fateless treadmill to a top young core in.. a couple seasons?

Internet gonna internet. Never change

In a way I understand the points you make here and elsewhere. There is no evidence that Cronin has missed any opportunities to move Simons, Grant, or Ayton for value, and the Deni trade was a very good one. We can appreciate his work where it merits approval.

But others, including me, do not share your optimism for the roster as currently constructed. The vets are losers, the youngsters are not elite prospects, and the team lacks either a war chest of draft picks or an abundance of cap space/expiring contracts with which to obtain them. The coach has shown no aptitude to elevate the team's level of play above its pitiful talent level.

The present and future of this team are, to most of us, rather bleak. Management needs to own that. You say elsewhere that they are probably happy with the fanbase believing the franchise is bottoming out when it is really getting ready to compete. On the contrary, I think they were quite pleased with beginning the rebuild more than a year before trading Lillard, while allowing the fans to believe they were still trying to field a credible playoff contender. The team has been trending downward for, what, four years? There is little to show for this initially stealth, now full-blown, rebuild.

I want to get on board with rooting for this squad because, as I have said, I do not endorse tanking and I think that an ideal franchise emphasizes winning now and winning later and does not have to sacrifice the former for the latter. But you have to do both well, and when you don't, you end up in the dreaded "straddling the fence" mode of assembling a poor excuse for a playoff threat while acquiring and developing no legitimately exciting prospects. Personally, I don't think Portland is straddling the fence -- I think they've leaned very hard into the rebuild and have put together a nearly perfect roster for tanking without looking blatant in doing so -- but it's certainly the case that Blazers brass can neither roll out a contender nor boast of their blue chip young talents. This team sucks and will suck until something dramatic happens like striking lottery gold or unlikely leaps from Scoot and Sharpe.

It's a very tough job to rebuild or win, let alone both, but that's why he's paid millions to do it.

Small market teams don't generally draw all stars, they have to draft them. Usually the small market teams that get stars already have talent established to draw them in ie giannis in milwaukee

I think our best chance is to tank for that star. Maybe we've already drafted him or maybe we will from tanking more. I don't think this roster will win much anyhow, it's built to lose as is, not gonna be middle of the road in my eyes just from a roster composition standpoint. There's a lot of guys who either suck or develop and a few vets who clearly aren't gonna be all stars unless they're on a loaded team

The biggest meh moves were the powell trade and the biggest being probably grant signing. Fortunately with time that contract is looking closer to fair value than overpaid but it's still more than we should've promised him without knowing what we'd do with Dame. We probably should've worked out a s&t on the same deal but I guess here we are.

All in all I think Cronin hasn't been a top 10 gm but also not bottom 10. A lot of where he ends up depends on how his draft picks turn out and whether he is too glued to his guys to make a deal when he needs to. But I think in a market like portland it's hard to get a top 10 of anything so I'm content with him especially if 2-3 of his draft picks pay off handsomely

[Norm2953]

The problem with the tanking direction is the upcoming draft has to have the players the team
really needs.

The upcoming draft with the exception of Flagg is a guard heavy draft (assuming Ace projects as
a swing player). Next summer Sharpe will be extension eligible and one has to wonder if re-signing
with a Portland team that has tanked for every season he's been here will be a priority for him .

The 2026 draft with Boozer, who looks to be the classic PF might be of more paramount for
Portland, but that's two more years of tanking, just for a 14% chance at success.

I'm sympathetic to Pattycakes ideas for tanking as a primary strategy isn't a winning strategy
with only a14% chance at success.

[dckingsfan]

The problem with the tanking direction is the upcoming draft has to have the players the team really needs.

The upcoming draft with the exception of Flagg is a guard heavy draft (assuming Ace projects as a swing player). Next summer Sharpe will be extension eligible and one has to wonder if re-signing with a Portland team that has tanked for every season he's been here will be a priority for him.

The 2026 draft with Boozer, who looks to be the classic PF might be of more paramount for Portland, but that's two more years of tanking, just for a 14% chance at success.

I'm sympathetic to Pattycakes ideas for tanking as a primary strategy isn't a winning strategy
with only a14% chance at success.

Shouldn't it be a three-pronged strategy of developing the youngsters you have, trading the older players for assets (if/when that becomes viable) and not signing FAs that get you "over the hump" into the better than the 14th pick (to keep draft picks to hopefully hit on one).

Once you have a viable team, only then do you sign meaningful FAs?

There are 9 players that are 24&U. With the only older player on the roster being Grant. But trading the older players for additional assets should be fine as well.

Even the payroll looks fine for now. Take the next two draft picks and suddenly there is a lot of payroll flexibility.

[Walton1one]

Actually the upcoming draft has some non point guard players of interest besides Flagg, though he is the prize.

Ace Bailey- forward 6’9
VJ Edgecome - SG 6’5
Hugo Gonzalez - guard/forward 6’6

And then two PG in Nolan Traore 6’3 & Dylan Harper 6’6

Edgecome could work for POR, as Sharpe could slide down to SF, He looked real good during Olympic qualifying, playing for the Bahamas

Traore/Harper would not be an ideal fit for POR, considering they have Scoot, however, this is all the more reason to play Scoot a lot this year and see what you have in him, because if he is not progressing then you absolutely take one of those two guys, the ultimate goal here is to get a cornerstone player and if they think one of these guys could be that player, then you take them. Traore in particular has looked really good

Of course, there are some other players who could rise in this draft as well: Liam McNeely 6’8/SF, Asa Newell 6’9/F

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Not to anything here but WRT to some common things you hear on the general board (capture the Flagg etc...) IMO tanking for a specific player is probably the most loser mentality possible. Save me daddy Flagg, you're our only hope! Yuck, miss me with that cringe.

Listen I get a strong draft is a strong draft and we want to position ourselves accordingly. No doubt.

But even if we are the worst team possible chances are still only 14%. Anyone reasonable in the GM chair would NOT be building any future plans around needing that specific outcome of winning the #1 pick. If it happens, great, wonderful, makes the job much easier. We all wish we could have the Spurs job right now.

But the majority of possible futures include having to make hay with a 4th or worse pick and if you are not ready to do as much as you can with that set of events then you would not be doing your job.

Maybe I'm a broken record but I have no problem seeing what this roster can accomplish as is, we are not in danger of being a great team. I see zero reason to tear anything more down until something starts going "right" on the court. If we end up being "too good" then that is exceedingly easy problem to solve mid-season. So exceedingly easy that I don't know why folks are preemptively trying to solve that problem.

To be fair, if I were GM Billups would be gone yesterday as I think he devalues our vets and stunts our youth. But that is a different issue than trading our vets now because we have already decided this roster is too damn good before the first game is ever played. That strikes me as some wildly optimistic thinking after results from the previous couple years.

[Norm2953]

Tanking as a strategy is only a winning strategy when a generational talent like Victor is available
but those guys are only available every 15 or so years.

I really think the strengths of this draft is the depth of quality talent but even then, each of these
great drafts had a bust in the top 5 for Darko was the second pick in a draft with Lebron, Wade,
Melo.

I think the thing to do is look for opportunities to add guys like Deni Ardvija, who is signed on a good contract,
long term. Trade with the Wizards will help both teams and Portland has enough draft capital to be able to afford
what may be Portland's best SF since Batum.

This will be a transitional season for Portland has to find out if Scoot/Sharpe are going to be the players the
team hopes they will be. I find it interesting the Blazers coaches were already watching Edgecombe and he's
a 6-4 SG and likely will monitor Traore, the French PG. Team has to decide if they plan to extend Sharpe next
summer or invest their next top 5 pick on a guard.

I'd look for more trades involving more draft capital. Let's see if LA comes to the table for Grant after Lebron
returns from the Olympics.

[GEE]

All Cronin has done this offseason is add two missing pieces (Deni/DC) and held firm that he wants equal value for all of our vet assets that may be generating interest.

How you guys manage to be so pessimistic about him constantly blows my friggin mind. It has to be bias at this point, cause he’s literally uno reversing us from a fateless treadmill to a top young core in.. a couple seasons?

Internet gonna internet. Never change

[Walton1one]

Yeah, I just disagree with the keeping the vets for now is fine mentality.

One of Grant\Ant needs to go before training camp. Otherwise you are going to be sitting Scoot or Sharpe on the bench, and as stated above Sharpe is up for an extension, and you have a draft next year that has some high quality guards in it, so I would think you would want to know whether or not one of the two players that you hope are a key part of your future are worth Investing in, or if you need to pivot to address that in the draft.

So having those vets on the team next year, taking up valuable minutes\shots, is a detriment to the team IMO.

[Norm2953]

It'd be interesting if Portland in the end just takes expiring contracts and a protected FRP for
Grant

One has to think there will be a move made prior to training camp, especially if TL is going to be
available this season. Team has some progress this off season for Deni will be the secondary ball
handler this team has lacked since they traded Batum and Donovan is going to be a solid player
in time. Their BC with Scoot/Sharpe hasn't played many games together and nobody knows how
much progress Scoot will make this summer and in fall camp and whether Sharpe will turn athletic
talent into consistent play on the court.

Likely it doesn't matter for whatever progress the team makes on the court, it won't be enough to
really compete for even a play in spot in the western conference. Some of the bottom feeders like
Houston will be much improved while some teams like the Clippers/Lakers along with the GSW are
getting older. Portland's time is coming if their young talent comes along but it won't be in 2024-5

[dckingsfan]

It'd be interesting if Portland in the end just takes expiring contracts and a protected FRP for Grant.

This is an interesting question. It seems like that is probably what is on the table (basically a late first round pick and probably not even in '25). Washington has the same issue with Kuz and there are other teams with forwards out there with the same issue. My guess, it will be a buyers' market and this will go to the trade deadline vs. before the season starts.

But, I think your point that it would be better for Portland to move on sooner rather than later is a good one. I just think the market is a bit soft right now.