Portland - 2016 Offseason

[HoopsFanAZ]

As to the guard rotation, my favored, "best" option is go get DeRozan. $$$
PG - Lillard (36), McCollum (12)
SG - DeRozan (24), McCollum (24)
SF - DeRozan (12), Harkless/Henderson/Crabbe/Aminu (36)

Whether any of the 3 guards play as few as 34 minutes is less important than having 3 players
on the same team scoring 20+ per game ... and no other team has that this year.
Other PGs and SGs are insurance and development players.

Aminu plays at PF/SF, Harkless has done the same, and Crabbe and Henderson
can both play SF/SG. If Portland signed DeRozan, Henderson or Crabbe is likely gone.

Bigs - Plumlee, Davis, Aminu, Vonleh ...
Getting a long rim protector is the next priority.

[PDXKnight]

As to the guard rotation, my favored, "best" option is go get DeRozan. $$$
PG - Lillard (36), McCollum (12)
SG - DeRozan (24), McCollum (24)
SF - DeRozan (12), Harkless/Henderson/Crabbe/Aminu (36)

Whether any of the 3 guards play as few as 34 minutes is less important than having 3 players
on the same team scoring 20+ per game ... and no other team has that this year.
Other PGs and SGs are insurance and development players.

Aminu plays at PF/SF, Harkless has done the same, and Crabbe and Henderson
can both play SF/SG. If Portland signed DeRozan, Henderson or Crabbe is likely gone.

Bigs - Plumlee, Davis, Aminu, Vonleh ...
Getting a long rim protector is the next priority.

Still not sure what the love with Derozan is. He's a good player no doubt but we already have 2 guards that shoot a lot. We need to go after a big or go home imo, Derozan is a solid player but Horford or even Millsap would fill much bigger voids on this team

[DusterBuster]

As to the guard rotation, my favored, "best" option is go get DeRozan. $$$
PG - Lillard (36), McCollum (12)
SG - DeRozan (24), McCollum (24)
SF - DeRozan (12), Harkless/Henderson/Crabbe/Aminu (36)

Whether any of the 3 guards play as few as 34 minutes is less important than having 3 players
on the same team scoring 20+ per game ... and no other team has that this year.
Other PGs and SGs are insurance and development players.

Aminu plays at PF/SF, Harkless has done the same, and Crabbe and Henderson
can both play SF/SG. If Portland signed DeRozan, Henderson or Crabbe is likely gone.

Bigs - Plumlee, Davis, Aminu, Vonleh ...
Getting a long rim protector is the next priority.

Still not sure what the love with Derozan is. He's a good player no doubt but we already have 2 guards that shoot a lot. We need to go after a big or go home imo, Derozan is a solid player but Horford or even Millsap would fill much bigger voids on this team

I'm really not convinced of DeRozen's fit with the team or Stotts' offense either. I agree that there's simply much bigger problems on the roster than finding a SG/SF when the team already has a really high quality SG and some good SF's.

I'm with you that Portland should look to solidify the front a bit better.

[Norm2953]

I'd like Portland to move on from Meyers and get a big, physical center that complements Plumlee.
It wouldn't hurt to add a big PG.

[Wizenheimer]

Still not sure what the love with Derozan is. He's a good player no doubt but we already have 2 guards that shoot a lot. We need to go after a big or go home imo, Derozan is a solid player but Horford or even Millsap would fill much bigger voids on this team

Portland has 2 guards that shoot a lot, but that doesn't mean they can't upgrade one of the positions. CJ averages 20.9 points on 18.0 FGA's. Derozan averages 23.6 points on 17.8 FGA's. Pretty big gap in points per shot. CJ doesn't even have an advantage over Derozan in play-making. CJ averages 4.2 assists vs 2.5 turnovers for a 1.71 assist/turnover ratio; Derozan averages 4.0 assists vs 2.2 turnovers for a 1.79 assist/turnover ratio. Derozan is an upgrade

but mainly, Derozan is mentioned because he's an all-star player who has some strong connections to Portland. He's a west coast guy who is very good friends with Lillard and Ed Davis is the godfather to his child. Blazers and all star free agents just don't seem to have those kind of connections. The problem is of course Portland's history with attracting top-level free agents. It just doesn't happen. We can talk about Al Horford...I certainly have...or dream about Durant, but we know that's almost certainly tilting at windmills..they ain't coming. So when there is a free agent like Derozan with strong connections to current Blazers, it may very well be that's Portland's best shot at actually landing a talented player. BPA applies sometimes even if it isn't the draft, and certainly, Portland won't be adding any top level players in the draft any time soon. Those connections might not mean anything but at least it's worth considering.

[Oneluckbox]

Is there any chance Portland could get Whiteside? He's an absolute monster on the defensive end obviously but his offensive game is also getting better and better. Still pretty young too. I suppose it will be really hard to sign with the Portland location vs Miami/all other top cities. Definitely a pipe dream but thinking about a Dame/CJ/Whiteside core with good role players around them. ONE CAN DREAM.

I agree that Blazers need a big more than anything. However I was thinking that Aminu was the biggest problem a couple of months ago but since being moved to PF and Moe starting, he has been very good. Was thinking someone like Barnes or Derozan but I have since cooled off on giving Barnes 15m or so. DD probably doesn't fit into the system because hes not a good 3pt shooter, but he's been shooting them a lot more in the latter half of the season and maybe if he focuses on that area, he could become a pretty decent 3pt threat. KD is always an option too

[Blazinaway]

I'd like Portland to move on from Meyers and get a big, physical center that complements Plumlee.
It wouldn't hurt to add a big PG.

I'd take Whiteside if he'd come here but that's unlikely, if we feel we need a bigger/stronger C to add to the Plumlee/Davis duo then perhaps a Mahimi or Mozgov? or even take a look at Hibbert?

[Wizenheimer]

Is there any chance Portland could get Whiteside? He's an absolute monster on the defensive end obviously but his offensive game is also getting better and better. Still pretty young too. I suppose it will be really hard to sign with the Portland location vs Miami/all other top cities. Definitely a pipe dream but thinking about a Dame/CJ/Whiteside core with good role players around them. ONE CAN DREAM.

I have no clue what's in Whiteside's mind when he thinks about his impending free agency, but it's probably safe to say Portland isn't at the front.

I think it's almost guaranteed that Whiteside will sign for a max deal somewhere. He'd be in the 25%-of-cap category like Lillard is. That means Miami can give him a deal of around 5-years/125 million. If he signs elsewhere, the max would be around 4-years/90 million. Miami's the only team that could offer the 5th year and 7.5% raises...everybody else can only offer 4.5% raises

Obviously, Miami has a big leg up on everybody else. They can give somewhere around 35 million more guaranteed money then any other teams, and they are in a state that has no income tax. Big advantages. Normally, they'd have difficulty since they don't own full bird rights on Whiteside, only early-bird rights. But they would have enough space this summer to make the offer, even after accounting for Wade's cap-hold. But if you believe some of the Miami fans at RealGM, it's not certain that the Heat will make that max offer to Whiteside

which tends to indicate that giving Whiteside a max deal could be risky, especially if the team that he's played for the last 2 years is leery of guaranteeing that kind of money. Will he be one of those players that gets his giant deal and then falls of a cliff in efficiency and impact?

He certainly has an impact in the paint, no denying that. He's crushing every other big in the league in blocked shots and blocked shot rate, and he alters more opponent shots then any player in the league. He's 2nd in the NBA in total rebound rate; 3rd in defensive rebound rate; and 9th in offensive rebound rate (Ed Davis is 4th). He's 1st in the league in defensive rating; 5th in defensive win shares; 7th in defensive box plus/minus; 7th in PER; 8th in win shares/48 and 15th in total win shares. Those are max contract numbers, easily

but there are questions about his BBIQ. He has a negative offensive box plus/minus. And when he gets the ball, he tends to shoot it. He has played more minutes then Mason Plumlee this season, yet he has 30 total assists compared to Plumlee's 223...

it's probably safe to say the risk/reward equation with Whiteside might be extreme on both sides of the equation. I'd be fine if the Blazers wanted to go after Whiteside. I'd be happier if they landed Horford then Whiteside, but I doubt they get much attention from either player. Whiteside would certainly alter the impact of Portland's C rotation

Was thinking someone like Barnes or Derozan but I have since cooled off on giving Barnes 15m or so. DD probably doesn't fit into the system because hes not a good 3pt shooter, but he's been shooting them a lot more in the latter half of the season and maybe if he focuses on that area, he could become a pretty decent 3pt threat. KD is always an option too

My guess is that Barnes will get quite a bit more then 15 million/year

this 'he-can't-shoot-three's-well-so-he-won't-fit-the-Stotts-offense' narrative is kind of irritating. Draymond Green and Iggy don't shoot three's well, but they certainly fit on a team that shoots more three's then anybody. Russel Westbrook doesn't shoot three's well yet he's a 5 time all-star, has been player of the week 11 times and player of the month 5 times, and is a triple-double machine that has been all-NBA 4 straight seasons. Tony Allen and Avery Bradley aren't good perimeter shooters yet they can fit a lot of teams well because their defense is so outstanding

for that matter, Harkless can't shoot three's well at all (27%), but he's able to have a major positive impact for the Blazers. I'm thinking that Stotts would be able to utilize players like Green or Iggy or Westbrook or Bradley and adjust his offense accordingly. If he couldn't or wouldn't then he shouldn't be the coach.

CJ is shooting three's very well. He's 8th in the NBA in both 3ptFG% and total makes. But as I pointed out earlier, CJ is averaging 20.9 points on 18.0 FGA's while Derozan is averaging 23.6 points on 17.8 FGA's. The reason Derozan is doing so much better in points/shot is because he gets to the FT line. He's 2nd in the NBA in made FT's a game; he's averaging over 7 points a game from FT's. That would be a very positive addition to the Blazer offense and make it more versatile. And the tried-and-true defense of CJ's game, that he goes out and creates his own baskets narrative doesn't apply in Derozan's case; Derozan's assisted FG rate is 30.1% compared to Cj's 36.6% rate

Derozan will probably re-sign in Toronto and Whiteside will probably go elsewhere so it's likely just an academic debate. But I do hope to hear during the July moratorium that Olshey is at least taking a shot at players the caliber of Horford-Derozan-Whiteside-Parsons before he goes trolling in the bargain bin or re-signs most of his own free agents; Portland needs a lot more talent then he can find in that bin or on the current roster

[Wizenheimer]

I'd take Whiteside if he'd come here but that's unlikely, if we feel we need a bigger/stronger C to add to the Plumlee/Davis duo then perhaps a Mahimi or Mozgov? or even take a look at Hibbert?

Mahinmi isn't that big....I doubt he's bigger or stronger then either Plumlee or Davis.

Hibbert is bigger but my god he's dinosaur slow. He's the exact opposite direction of where the NBA has been heading. IMO Hibbert was a bad idea 4 years ago when Olshey made that offer to him and he's an even worse idea now...no offense meant

Mozgov? well, he'd fit the bill as somebody bigger and stronger, but is he any kind of an upgrade? I ask that because if the Blazers add another C, one of their current rotation of Plumlee/Davis should drop out. There's not room for 3 C's in the Stotts offense. One would fill the Kaman role

here's a comparison of Plumlee/Davis to Mozgov, Mahinmi, Hibbert, and Whiteside:

http://bkref.com/tiny/GWQ95

looking at those numbers, the only clear upgrade to Plumlee/Davis is Whiteside. In fact, of the free agent C's this summer, AFAIC, Whiteside is the only one that is an upgrade. I think all others represent downgrades and won't be worth the effort or the time invested by the Blazer F.O. in a shortened moratorium this July

If Portland 'needs' a 3rd C that is a big body, then re-sign Kaman for a 1 or 2 year vet minimum. Reportedly, he loves Portland and might be willing to 'play' for a couple of million. By all accounts, he's had a major positive impact on the team behind the scenes

[blazersbucs40]

It seems to me I'm in the minority, but I'm in the camp of moving Plumlee. I don't think he will have higher value and long term Portland cant contend with him starting at center. I think its the #1 priority for Portland to get a rim protector this offseason

[Epicurus]

It seems to me I'm in the minority, but I'm in the camp of moving Plumlee. I don't think he will have higher value and long term Portland cant contend with him starting at center. I think its the #1 priority for Portland to get a rim protector this offseason

Plumlee's assists to turnover ratio will improve next year, as he and the others are more certain of their cuts and timing. It is already decent for the position. I think next year it will be excellent. His 10 ft or so shooting may also improve, as has his free throw shooting itself. In sum, for the blazers' flowing type of offense, Plumlee's offensive talents may prove very valuable.

[Wizenheimer]

It seems to me I'm in the minority, but I'm in the camp of moving Plumlee. I don't think he will have higher value and long term Portland cant contend with him starting at center. I think its the #1 priority for Portland to get a rim protector this offseason

According to Sportsvu tracking, Portland's opponents' at the rim FG% is 50.6%. That ranks 5th in the league. 5th. And they rank 16th in number of opponent FG's attempted at the rim and 7th in the rate of layups allowed. BBREF says that Portland allows 27.4% of opponent FG's within 3 feet of the rim. That ranks 4th. And the opponent FG% on those attempts is 58.9%; that ranks 3rd. All those numbers suggest that Portland's need of a rim protector may be overstated, and perhaps greatly over stated

on the other hand, Portland ranks 29th in opponent FG% in the 3'-10' zone, but are 11th in allowing shots from that zone. They rank 5th in opponent FG% in the 10'16' zone, but rank 13th in allowing shots from that zone. Finally, the Blazers rank dead last in both opponent FG% in the 16'-23' zone and number of attempts from that zone. dead last in both. Also, there is only one NBA team that allows a higher FG% from three then Portland, that is the Phoenix Suns. Portland is one of 4 teams tied for 26th-29th at 37.2%

In other words, it sure seems like the desire for a rim protector is kind of like having a broken left ankle and putting the cast on your right ankle. That is to say that Portland's defensive achilles heel appears to be perimeter defense, not defense at the rim. This seems to fit the Defensive RPM numbers as both Davis and Plumlee are in the top 10% of the league in those rankings

Now, those marks in the 3'-10' zone are a bit problematic. There might be some poor rim-protection skew there. But all of their at the rim numbers lead in the other direction. Having watched this defense, my hunch is the majority of those shot are coming from closer to 10' then 3'. My sense is that Portland has poor perimeter defenders that are operating in a passive ICE PnR scheme, that allows far too many open looks in the mid-range game.

[AllMyNeilOlshey]

When the Bulls blow it up...would anybody be willing to take Rose? For some reason regardless of health I have been stuck on a Rose, Lillard, Mccollum backcourt.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Sign Thibs as the defensive coach!!!

[Norm2953]

Plumlee like CJ is about to get well paid but I'd be fascinated if Portland's management might
prefer extend Plumlee over CJ given the growth in his game in just one year. Likely Portland
will protect their rights and offer up QO's to our RFA's and will try to re-sign Gerald.

[Epicurus]

Let's look at doing nothing personnel wise. With this year of playing together (something not found in many Blazers this season) and offseason development of so much youth, I see an improvement in efg% of at least one percent for next year. That alone is worth 3.5 wins (see Winston, MATHLETICS). I think the same factors can mean an improvement of say .5 opponent efg%, meaning 1.75 additional wins. Much the same, maybe even with more probability, the Blazers will improve their turnovers, see my above remarks about Plumlee alone, making one less turnover per 100 possessions next season. That is worth 3.3 wins. Maybe further understanding of the defensive scheme and its modification to allow more steal, it is not difficult to foresee at least 1/2 more turnovers per 100 opponent possessions, or 1.6 more wins. I doubt if the rebounding will improve, already pretty good, on both sides. Thus that is a zero gains. Being perceived a bit differently by the refs, particularly from the beginning of last season, there should be more FTA offensively and defensively, at the same rate of makes, say then about 1 more win. Altogether, that would mean not changing personnel and depending upon seasoning, individual and collective, and with all other things being equal, particularly health, the Blazers may gain around 11-12 more wins next season--or around 55 wins.

Oshey's job is either to accept what this team may be next season as is, or figure what can take it to 60 wins or more (with, of course, the risk that the additions will not take from the team coherence displayed now).

[Downtown]

Let's look at doing nothing personnel wise. With this year of playing together (something not found in many Blazers this season) and offseason development of so much youth, I see an improvement in efg% of at least one percent for next year. That alone is worth 3.5 wins (see Winston, MATHLETICS). I think the same factors can mean an improvement of say .5 opponent efg%, meaning 1.75 additional wins. Much the same, maybe even with more probability, the Blazers will improve their turnovers, see my above remarks about Plumlee alone, making one less turnover per 100 possessions next season. That is worth 3.3 wins. Maybe further understanding of the defensive scheme and its modification to allow more steal, it is not difficult to foresee at least 1/2 more turnovers per 100 opponent possessions, or 1.6 more wins. I doubt if the rebounding will improve, already pretty good, on both sides. Thus that is a zero gains. Being perceived a bit differently by the refs, particularly from the beginning of last season, there should be more FTA offensively and defensively, at the same rate of makes, say then about 1 more win. Altogether, that would mean not changing personnel and depending upon seasoning, individual and collective, and with all other things being equal, particularly health, the Blazers may gain around 11-12 more wins next season--or around 55 wins.

Oshey's job is either to accept what this team may be next season as is, or figure what can take it to 60 wins or more (with, of course, the risk that the additions will not take from the team coherence displayed now).

I don't think it's as simple as doing nothing and as funny as it seems I don't think Olshey has a choice about doing nothing. His hand is definitely going to be forced to do "something" just by virtue of all the free agents on the roster. I can't see everyone re-signing so there will be changes. The only question we can't answer is which ones.

I do agree with you to a point that not making a big move might be the best thing he can do at the moment. They have that one key ingredient for success which is team cohesiveness and actually playing like a team. Taking out a part or two from the equation and inserting a couple different ones doesn't guarantee that you've built a better robot.

But I've never believed that any of us in life "stand still". We're either getting ahead or falling behind even if we think we're living the "status quo". May as well try to improve every day. So for sure Olshey needs to think about what would improve the team.

But keeping the current group in large part isn't a bad idea. After all if any of us thought that before the season started that finishing fifth was a reasonable position we would have taken it. Shaping the team with a goal of securing home court advantage in the first round, meaning fourth, for next season is a worthy goal in putting together the roster for the 2016 offseason.

[Epicurus]

I wasn't arguing for standing still, but the belief that player and team development will NOT stand still. Young players on a young team. With the decently probably improvements in the four factors I mention, the team, all things being equal, especially health, we could have a 55 win team. Is that enough for the owner, front office, fan base? Don't know, but intentional changes should be put in the context of the probable.

[Blazer50]

Blazers are still in a position to Move the Needle this off season. They have $46,615,742 of guaranteed salaries with $59M inclusive. I would extend qualifying offers to my 4 RFA candidates giving us the option to Match offers. I would let Hendu & Kaman walk. We now have qualifying offers (or guarantees) adding about $19M to the Guaranteed money that equals $65,614,742.

Since we have a 3 day matching period and presumably will have some Home team consideration, especially from Meyers & Mo - who have been given great opportunities in Portland, we may be able to stretch our time frame a day or two base on the day they accept the offer. I am sure teams won't let those guys take Much time in signing sheets, but we might get a few days.

Olshey and Stotts Make a hard push to Whitesides with a Max free agent offer and show how he fits with our young - overachieving core and what a greater role he would have in Portland offensively and be our Key Defensive anchor. (Same spiel offered to Monroe and Kanter and Hibbert). I think Horford is a better - sure thing, but would not make the offer to him given his age and the fact that he will have more suitors and probably be able to take more time in making a decision. Whitesides' Max is about $22,500,000 according to some websites (seems high but 2nd round & time in league are considerations). This would still leave Portland - including cap holds at $87.5M. We might be able to front end load the deal like we did with Wes Matthews to make other offers less appealing. If Hassan does not take the offer, we could make the same to DeRozan if there is any indication he would be agreeable to coming to Portland - and we still have time to match on our RFAs.

Otherwise, I think Olshey may have a couple of small tweaks to do, but letting the team grow together might be the best alternative. Let's wait until the next trade deadline to see if an opportunity presents itself to acquire a substantial upgrade.

I would really like DeRozan starting at the SF and rotating him with CJ at SG / CJ at PG with Dame and Crabbe and Mo Harkless in the mix. Alternatively, I also like our big rotation - including Meyers Leonard with Whitesides in place of Kaman.

[Case2012]

We have one superstar in Dame (Curry LIGHT), an all star caliber player in CJ( Obviously the chances are high that he'll improve from his first full year of starting to his second, his defense probably won't improve sadly), a great hustle energy rebounder in Davis, Harkless and Aminu are SF's and small ball fours that can play defense and hit 3s on occasion, Plumlee can't shoot and doesn't have the heart of a player like Draymond Green, but he's similar in a lot of ways too because he can pass, rebound, roll, and outlet.. I think we'll see him with a triple double next season...

My point is that the way the team is constructed and the way Stotts plays his offense, it reminds me a lot of the warriors. A superstar (Dame/Curry), an allstar (CJ/Klay), a glue guy (Plumlee/Green), some small ball 4s that shoot 3s (Aminu/Harkless,Barnes/Rush) and a hustle energy rebounder (Davis/Ezeli?).

So the idea of letting the "cake bake" is interesting. Obviously the Blazers i compared to the Warriors aren't the same caliber, but if we can make some slight upgrades in some places while cutting some dead weight, why can't we be on a similar success arc as the warriors? I would prefer Barnes to Harkless and Crabbe and over pay to get him (Barnes is like both players in one body), but there aren't really many ways i can see us improving the team in realistic ways. Derozen would be awesome, so would Whiteside, but i think Barnes is a more realistic target and helps the team reflect the Warriors current success.

Does anyone else see this too or am i crazy?

Who would've thought the warriors would be this good 3 years ago? They're all essentially elite roll players (with the exception of Curry) that play great team basketball. The spurs are a perfect example of this too, except they have different puzzle pieces.

In summation, I think the era of the big 3 is over and the money ball super role player era is the future of the NBA.