Offseason of talk about LMA potentially leaving the Blazers

[d-train]

People keep talking about San Antonio going after Aldridge. While I agree it's a possibility, getting there is going to be a problem for them. Look at their cap-situation...

"guaranteed salaries and cap-holds":

Tony Parker $13,437,500
Tiago Splitter $8,500,000
Boris Diaw $7,000,000
Patrick Mills $3,578,947
Kawhi Leonard $7,235,148
Kyle Anderson $1,142,879

$40,894,474

all well and good. The cap is projected to be around 67 million which means the Spurs would need to be at around 48-49 million in order to be able to offer Aldridge a max. Even after adding 6 roster charges to 40.9 million, the Spurs would be at 44 million....45 million if they keep their first round pick

but obviously, there are some important names missing from that list...and some cap-holds that accompany those names:

Tim Duncan $15,000,000 (cap-hold)
Manu Ginobili $10,500,000 (cap-hold)
Danny Green $7,647,500 (cap-hold)
Marco Belinelli $3,735,875 (cap-hold)
Aron Baynes $3,946,300 (cap-hold)
Cory Joseph $5,058,153 (cap-hold)

so, assuming those numbers & assumptions are correct, the Spurs would have to renounce the rights to Duncan, Manu, Green, Joseph, and one of Belinelli/Baynes in order to have enough money to give Aldridge the max

Spurs could renounce Duncan and Manu to create cap room and after using the cap room to sign a free agent, they could resign Duncan and Manu using exceptions. Duncan would retain his bird rights and would be eligible for a bigger (bird rights) contract in 2016. Duncan and Parker are aging but Kawhi is the Spurs best player and would still be the best player even if LA joined him. LA might like his chances of winning a championship better with Kawhi as his all-star teammate rather than Lillard.

[Wizenheimer]

Spurs could renounce Duncan and Manu to create cap room and after using the cap room to sign a free agent, they could resign Duncan and Manu using exceptions. Duncan would retain his bird rights and would be eligible for a bigger (bird rights) contract in 2016. Duncan and Parker are aging but Kawhi is the Spurs best player and would still be the best player even if LA joined him. LA might like his chances of winning a championship better with Kawhi as his all-star teammate rather than Lillard.

the only exception the Spurs would have is the cap-room exception, which will be 2.8 million. If Duncan wants to re-sign for that little, then that would work, but IIRC, there was chatter in 2012 when he signed his last contract that 10 million/year was as low as he was willing to go. Maybe he's changed his view about that

I don't think the Spurs could convince both Duncan and Manu to split 2.8 million. Manu would have to re-sign for a minimum exception

the 'perfect' scenario for the Spurs, assuming they really wanted Aldridge (which I'd be a bit skeptical of), is to know they can resign Danny Green so they don't have to renounce his rights; renounce the other free agents; then sign Aldridge to a 1 year 15-16 million deal; then re-sign Duncan with the cap-MLE; then fill out the roster with vets. That would be a contending team again, and Popovich would likely be able to create a better version of Aldridge then Stotts has

[Norm2953]

If the Spurs can get Ginobli for example to retire could the Spurs renounce all rights to him
creating more cap space to pursue LA with a smaller cap hold?

Love LA as a player but if he is willing to leave money on the table to sign with a team with
a better chance to win a championship, more power to him. If he goes home to Texas, neither
the Spurs or Mavs are likely going to be favored over the Rockets with a healthy Dwight
Howard. His best choice could be to sign a one year deal to get into the free agent frenzy
which will be the summer of 2016 where a team like the Lakers with massive cap space
could sign three max free agent contracts. If he does that, Portland would be wise to move
him prior to the draft to a team over the cap like the Bulls.

[SalemStoner]

People view the Spurs as a likely landing spot because this season or next is very likely to be the last for Duncan and Manu. If they retire, then renouncing their cap holds is a minor issue and magically that cap space becomes dangerous. If they don't retire, then there isn't any real threats to sign LMA imo.

[GreenRiddler]

Man this stuff makes me gets so down...I just wish we knew, right the Season ends fr us (Whenever that maybe, not giving up hope) Why oh Why did we trade that Lotto pick?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TheAmySchwartz/status/591129261034995712[/tweet]

[DaVoiceMaster]

I'm not buying it. What happened to all the Lillard, Aldridge & Batum love they had for one another and wanting to stay together?

[Wizenheimer]

I'm not buying it. What happened to all the Lillard, Aldridge & Batum love they had for one another and wanting to stay together?

they are relatively young men and a year is a long time. And, things can feel a lot different at the end of 5 year contract then in the middle of one. Perspectives change

I also think none of us has a handle on how that massive new TV deal for the NBA has changed how the future will unfold and how players view things

Aldridge has spent 9 years in Portland. He was 20 in his first summer league as a Blazer. Essentially, he'll have passed his twenties in Portland. I know when I was that age, I always considered any opportunities that would change things up. I can't blame Aldridge if he wants to make a big change, especially considering that there won't be as big a difference in money in Portland and money elsewhere as always reported. In fact, when factors like market size and state taxes are considered, there may be no financial advantage for him staying in Portland. And, the timing of his contract expiration compared to the new TV revenue may actually work against Portland then for Portland as was first assumed

something else, and I'll probably get crap for it: I don't think Olshey did enough to convince Aldridge he has a chance to play for a contender in Portland. He spent the first two years of his tenure trying to cheap-screw together a bargain-bin bench and forcing 'his' draft picks into roles they weren't ready for. And Olshey catered to Stotts by focusing on perimeter oriented players to the point that in this Memphis series, it looks like Aldridge is the only Blazer capable of battling physical interior play and scoring inside.

For chrissakes, Last season had the big positive bump of winning the first round against Houston, followed by the eye-opener of how much they needed to improve against San Antonio. And Olshey's response was to add Chris Kaman & Steve Blake? Of course, that's about all he could do at that point, but it probably isn't lost on Aldridge (or his agent) that prior to last summer Olshey had two off-seasons of major cap-space and only managed to add 1 rotation player, Lopez.

I wouldn't be surprised if Aldridge has doubts about Stotts either

this season looks to be ending on a major downer. It's been heading steadily downhill since the all-star break, and if Portland can't find some way to execute on both ends of the floor against a team that has won 10 of the last 11 meetings, they could get swept on their home floor. The best case now is probably just to extend the series to 5 games. That all has to affect Aldridge's thinking going into free agency

I imagine Portland is still the favorite. But I'd guess the odds are a lot closer to 50-50 now then they were a year ago.

the irony may be that as Olshey kept deferring bigger moves till the 2015 off-season to see which way Aldridge went, the very act of deferring may have pushed Aldridge out the door

[Blazinaway]

I'm not buying it. What happened to all the Lillard, Aldridge & Batum love they had for one another and wanting to stay together?

they are relatively young men and a year is a long time. And, things can feel a lot different at the end of 5 year contract then in the middle of one. Perspectives change

I also think none of us has a handle on how that massive new TV deal for the NBA has changed how the future will unfold and how players view things

Aldridge has spent 9 years in Portland. He was 20 in his first summer league as a Blazer. Essentially, he'll have passed his twenties in Portland. I know when I was that age, I always considered any opportunities that would change things up. I can't blame Aldridge if he wants to make a big change, especially considering that there won't be as big a difference in money in Portland and money elsewhere as always reported. In fact, when factors like market size and state taxes are considered, there may be no financial advantage for him staying in Portland. And, the timing of his contract expiration compared to the new TV revenue may actually work against Portland then for Portland as was first assumed

something else, and I'll probably get crap for it: I don't think Olshey did enough to convince Aldridge he has a chance to play for a contender in Portland. He spent the first two years of his tenure trying to cheap-screw together a bargain-bin bench and forcing 'his' draft picks into roles they weren't ready for. And Olshey catered to Stotts by focusing on perimeter oriented players to the point that in this Memphis series, it looks like Aldridge is the only Blazer capable of battling physical interior play and scoring inside.

For chrissakes, Last season had the big positive bump of winning the first round against Houston, followed by the eye-opener of how much they needed to improve against San Antonio. And Olshey's response was to add Chris Kaman & Steve Blake? Of course, that's about all he could do at that point, but it probably isn't lost on Aldridge (or his agent) that prior to last summer Olshey had two off-seasons of major cap-space and only managed to add 1 rotation player, Lopez.

I wouldn't be surprised if Aldridge has doubts about Stotts either

this season looks to be ending on a major downer. It's been heading steadily downhill since the all-star break, and if Portland can't find some way to execute on both ends of the floor against a team that has won 10 of the last 11 meetings, they could get swept on their home floor. The best case now is probably just to extend the series to 5 games. That all has to affect Aldridge's thinking going into free agency

I imagine Portland is still the favorite. But I'd guess the odds are a lot closer to 50-50 now then they were a year ago.

the irony may be that as Olshey kept deferring bigger moves till the 2015 off-season to see which way Aldridge went, the very act of deferring may have pushed Aldridge out the door

well if he does leave hopefully we could at least get some value in a sign and trade?

[tester551]

I'm not buying it. What happened to all the Lillard, Aldridge & Batum love they had for one another and wanting to stay together?

they are relatively young men and a year is a long time. And, things can feel a lot different at the end of 5 year contract then in the middle of one. Perspectives change

I also think none of us has a handle on how that massive new TV deal for the NBA has changed how the future will unfold and how players view things

Aldridge has spent 9 years in Portland. He was 20 in his first summer league as a Blazer. Essentially, he'll have passed his twenties in Portland. I know when I was that age, I always considered any opportunities that would change things up. I can't blame Aldridge if he wants to make a big change, especially considering that there won't be as big a difference in money in Portland and money elsewhere as always reported. In fact, when factors like market size and state taxes are considered, there may be no financial advantage for him staying in Portland. And, the timing of his contract expiration compared to the new TV revenue may actually work against Portland then for Portland as was first assumed

something else, and I'll probably get crap for it: I don't think Olshey did enough to convince Aldridge he has a chance to play for a contender in Portland. He spent the first two years of his tenure trying to cheap-screw together a bargain-bin bench and forcing 'his' draft picks into roles they weren't ready for. And Olshey catered to Stotts by focusing on perimeter oriented players to the point that in this Memphis series, it looks like Aldridge is the only Blazer capable of battling physical interior play and scoring inside.

For chrissakes, Last season had the big positive bump of winning the first round against Houston, followed by the eye-opener of how much they needed to improve against San Antonio. And Olshey's response was to add Chris Kaman & Steve Blake? Of course, that's about all he could do at that point, but it probably isn't lost on Aldridge (or his agent) that prior to last summer Olshey had two off-seasons of major cap-space and only managed to add 1 rotation player, Lopez.

I wouldn't be surprised if Aldridge has doubts about Stotts either

this season looks to be ending on a major downer. It's been heading steadily downhill since the all-star break, and if Portland can't find some way to execute on both ends of the floor against a team that has won 10 of the last 11 meetings, they could get swept on their home floor. The best case now is probably just to extend the series to 5 games. That all has to affect Aldridge's thinking going into free agency

I imagine Portland is still the favorite. But I'd guess the odds are a lot closer to 50-50 now then they were a year ago.

the irony may be that as Olshey kept deferring bigger moves till the 2015 off-season to see which way Aldridge went, the very act of deferring may have pushed Aldridge out the door

well if he does leave hopefully we could at least get some value in a sign and trade?

Wiz - Great post as usual...

I don't think Portland will get any value out of a sign & trade. Portland has no leverage....

If I was Olshey, I would try to convince LMA to sign a 2 year deal with a player option on the 2nd (essentially giving LMA a 1 year deal to hit the "big money" with the cap explosion). Once he is under contract, I would start shopping him to one of his "targeted" teams.

[monopoman]

Man this stuff makes me gets so down...I just wish we knew, right the Season ends fr us (Whenever that maybe, not giving up hope) Why oh Why did we trade that Lotto pick?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TheAmySchwartz/status/591129261034995712[/tweet]

I just can't believe that Aldridge would have not brought these concerns up to management during this last season, unless this is a very recent development.

I mean its extremely rare when a big name player abandons his team and doesn't give them any warning ahead of time, especially when that player just 1 year ago made it very clear that he was very excited to sign a large deal next off-season.

[Wizenheimer]

well if he does leave hopefully we could at least get some value in a sign and trade?

it's possible, but probably only if Aldridge wanted to go to a team without necessary cap-space. I don't think that's the case unless it's maybe Chicago

San Antonio and Dallas could get enough space but they'd have pretty flimsy rosters after doing so

LMA will be an unrestricted FA; Portland's chances of getting much more then a large TPE are probably slim to none. Now, a big TPE could come in handy next year before the trade deadline, so it shouldn't be disregarded

[MakDagr]

If we lost Robin (possibly others), and with Neil's history with him, is DeAndre a possibility at all this offseason Wiz? Even if we went into the Luxury Tax this next year until the TV $ comes in.

Just curious...

[d-train]

Spurs could renounce Duncan and Manu to create cap room and after using the cap room to sign a free agent, they could resign Duncan and Manu using exceptions. Duncan would retain his bird rights and would be eligible for a bigger (bird rights) contract in 2016. Duncan and Parker are aging but Kawhi is the Spurs best player and would still be the best player even if LA joined him. LA might like his chances of winning a championship better with Kawhi as his all-star teammate rather than Lillard.

the only exception the Spurs would have is the cap-room exception, which will be 2.8 million. If Duncan wants to re-sign for that little, then that would work, but IIRC, there was chatter in 2012 when he signed his last contract that 10 million/year was as low as he was willing to go. Maybe he's changed his view about that

I don't think the Spurs could convince both Duncan and Manu to split 2.8 million. Manu would have to re-sign for a minimum exception

the 'perfect' scenario for the Spurs, assuming they really wanted Aldridge (which I'd be a bit skeptical of), is to know they can resign Danny Green so they don't have to renounce his rights; renounce the other free agents; then sign Aldridge to a 1 year 15-16 million deal; then re-sign Duncan with the cap-MLE; then fill out the roster with vets. That would be a contending team again, and Popovich would likely be able to create a better version of Aldridge then Stotts has

Spurs and Duncan could agree to a 2yr/$5.9M deal with the 2nd year being a player option, then Duncan could opt out and Spurs could use bird rights to pay Duncan over $20M for 2016. The veteran’s minimum for Manu would be $1.5M and they can be 2yr contracts now. Or, Manu could also be a free agent again in 2016.

[JasonStern]

If we lost Robin (possibly others), and with Neil's history with him, is DeAndre a possibility at all this offseason Wiz?

if the Blazers lose Lopez, Aldrige, Matthews, and Afflalo, sure. but at that point, why?

[MakDagr]

Asking if we did work a 1 year, and player option, or Max deal with LA, could we bring him that next step at Center? Obviously would have to give DeAndre a Max deal, but I've heard Olshey does have a good relationship with DeAndre from their days in LAC

[dreamcloud]

Man, if we **** lose Aldridge, I don't know what I"m gonna do.. I can't stand the idea of watching my favorite player in the NBA playing for another team's city and fans... I only started really following the NBA when Aldridge joined the blazers..

[Brandon-Clyde]

Man this stuff makes me gets so down...I just wish we knew, right the Season ends fr us (Whenever that maybe, not giving up hope) Why oh Why did we trade that Lotto pick?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TheAmySchwartz/status/591129261034995712[/tweet]

I wanted to know who the hell was Amy Schwartz and it turns out she works for John Canzano. Not what I would call a reliable source

[Brandon-Clyde]

Spurs could renounce Duncan and Manu to create cap room and after using the cap room to sign a free agent, they could resign Duncan and Manu using exceptions. Duncan would retain his bird rights and would be eligible for a bigger (bird rights) contract in 2016. Duncan and Parker are aging but Kawhi is the Spurs best player and would still be the best player even if LA joined him. LA might like his chances of winning a championship better with Kawhi as his all-star teammate rather than Lillard.

the only exception the Spurs would have is the cap-room exception, which will be 2.8 million. If Duncan wants to re-sign for that little, then that would work, but IIRC, there was chatter in 2012 when he signed his last contract that 10 million/year was as low as he was willing to go. Maybe he's changed his view about that

I don't think the Spurs could convince both Duncan and Manu to split 2.8 million. Manu would have to re-sign for a minimum exception

the 'perfect' scenario for the Spurs, assuming they really wanted Aldridge (which I'd be a bit skeptical of), is to know they can resign Danny Green so they don't have to renounce his rights; renounce the other free agents; then sign Aldridge to a 1 year 15-16 million deal; then re-sign Duncan with the cap-MLE; then fill out the roster with vets. That would be a contending team again, and Popovich would likely be able to create a better version of Aldridge then Stotts has

Spurs and Duncan could agree to a 2yr/$5.9M deal with the 2nd year being a player option, then Duncan could opt out and Spurs could use bird rights to pay Duncan over $20M for 2016. The veteran’s minimum for Manu would be $1.5M and they can be 2yr contracts now. Or, Manu could also be a free agent again in 2016.

Agreeing to such a wink and nod deal would violate NBA rules and if proven there could be severe repercussions such as voiding of all contracts involved and loss of draft picks

[monopoman]

Man this stuff makes me gets so down...I just wish we knew, right the Season ends fr us (Whenever that maybe, not giving up hope) Why oh Why did we trade that Lotto pick?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TheAmySchwartz/status/591129261034995712[/tweet]

I wanted to know who the hell was Amy Schwartz and it turns out she works for John Canzano. Not what I would call a reliable source

Thanks, knowing that she works with Clownzano makes her reputation take a nose dive if you ask me. As I said prepare for the news media to bombard us with this crap until LMA picks a team.

[jeffhardyfan52]

Man this stuff makes me gets so down...I just wish we knew, right the Season ends fr us (Whenever that maybe, not giving up hope) Why oh Why did we trade that Lotto pick?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TheAmySchwartz/status/591129261034995712[/tweet]

I wanted to know who the hell was Amy Schwartz and it turns out she works for John Canzano. Not what I would call a reliable source

Thanks, knowing that she works with Clownzano makes her reputation take a nose dive if you ask me. As I said prepare for the news media to bombard us with this crap until LMA picks a team.

At this point wake me up when he signs
This is to depressing