Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Blazinaway]

for an off the radar solid C who plays pretty good D I like Ian Mahinmi, he's 29 but a 3-4 yr contract IMO might be a good value if we can get him "reasonably"

[red_power]

I though about Marc Gasol trade instead of counting all no name future free agent centers. Memphis team will likely be blown this summer, Marc is gone for around the year, he is already 31 years old and has long contract.
Assuming all of that I see very decent possibility to get for with very reasonable value (about 2 first round picks). Risky option of course but can be worth it.

[Wizenheimer]

I though about Marc Gasol trade instead of counting all no name future free agent centers. Memphis team will likely be blown this summer, Marc is gone for around the year, he is already 31 years old and has long contract.
Assuming all of that I see very decent possibility to get for with very reasonable value (about 2 first round picks). Risky option of course but can be worth it.

I might be wrong but I think Gasol is missing the rest of the season because of his 2nd significant foot injury. Gasol is big and he has lots of mass. I'd be real reluctant to take on the contract of a player that big with fragile feet, especially when he's 31 and will turn 32 nest season; and especially considering Portland's history with injury prone bigs

[Dame Lizard]

I think the Blazers should target late first/early 2nd 4 year College players, who could potentially come in and produce right away while still having a bit of ceiling or even perhaps some diamond in the rough potential.

These type of players will possibly contribute just as much as any of these FAs at a fraction of the cost. I am thinking Jeff Whithey types...

REALLY disappointing that Olshey didn't acquire any picks for this year, as I think this is exactly the time for young players to be added if you're looking at the projection of Lillard's "window".

Yep I completely agree. My want for a 2016 draft pick was primarily so we could draft a more NBA ready player, preferably a rim protector. Jeff Withey is a great example, and alongside Ezeli, are players that I've mentioned previously in the same context as well. Elite rim protectors (with limited offensive games), who get overlooked primarily because of them being 22/23 years old and not 19/20.

AJ Hammons was/is my guy for that role, the only thing is that Hammons actually has a nice offensive game. Hopefully Olshey can work out something on draft night (trade Cleveland's 2018 1st round pick + a 2nd if need be, depending on when Hammons is likely to go). He fits perfectly in with the age group, and will be on a rookie contract for years.

I have previously really liked Whiteside as a fit on this team, but looking at his very negative ORPM, and reflecting on how the fact that he's an unwilling passer is a giant understatement (and seeing how well Plumlee's passing works with our guards), I'm starting to get cold on him.

Every team only uses about 9 or 10 players in their rotation, and there's always guys like Connaughton, Cliff and Montero who are to raw to play anyway. I'd love for us to get a young shot-blocker (young because if we draft him, or get him undrafted, he'll be very cheap), even if he's stashed away at the end of the 15 man bench. There's always times (e.g. if Dwight Howard/Cousins entered beast-mode), where it could be beneficial having that card up your sleave, even if it's just as a gamble to see if it works.

[mactrapper10]

I though about Marc Gasol trade instead of counting all no name future free agent centers. Memphis team will likely be blown this summer, Marc is gone for around the year, he is already 31 years old and has long contract.
Assuming all of that I see very decent possibility to get for with very reasonable value (about 2 first round picks). Risky option of course but can be worth it.

I might be wrong but I think Gasol is missing the rest of the season because of his 2nd significant foot injury. Gasol is big and he has lots of mass. I'd be real reluctant to take on the contract of a player that big with fragile feet, especially when he's 31 and will turn 32 nest season; and especially considering Portland's history with injury prone bigs

Totally agree. The Grizzlies are a good candidate to blow it up this summer, but after this injury I don't think Gasol would be worth the gamble to go after.

[Run PDX]

I think the goals should go like this...

1. Extend Coach Stotts.

2. See if we can get a productive replacement for Leonard by making a trade on draft day. If, for example, we could get Sabonis from Gonzaga, by buying a late first round pick from Boston, we should jump at it.

3. Try to secure one of: Harrison Barnes, Kevin Love, or Ryan Anderson.
* Offer Vonleh, Aminu, and future draft considerations for Love.

4. Resign Allen Crabbe. He is the starting small forward for this roster.

5. Extend CJ McCollum. He is a star in the making. Lock him up.

6. Decide between Aminu and Harkless as a backup small forward. As I have already said, I think that trading Aminu might be a good idea - if it can get us a player like Kevin Love.

7. Resign Gerald Henderson and Brian Roberts. As far as backups go, I feel like these two are good options; and, I think fans will come to appreciate Roberts as much as they have grown to appreciate Henderson.

8. Sign a cheaper (MLE level) center.If Boston can get a center in a trade, they may let Tyler Zeller go in free agency - or maybe we can sign Miles Plumlee.

PG: Dame / Roberts / (CJ)
SG: CJ / Henderson / Conaughton
SF: Crabbe / Harkless / Montero
PF: Love / Davis / Sabonis 2.0
C: Plumlee / Zeller / Alexander

or...

PG: Dame / Roberts / (CJ)
SG: CJ / Henderson / Conaughton
SF: Crabbe / Aminu / Montero
PF: Barnes (or Anderson) / Vonleh / Sabonis 2.0
C: Plumlee / Davis / Zeller

[GreenRiddler]

We can make some trades this summer. we got Cle's 1st in 2020 and I think that's gonna be a lotto pick TBH LBJ has 2 good years left and no more. We also can trade our 2017 pick if we lose this draft pick I think.

I know no one wants to say it, but Blake was a Neo pick and that controversy may a bridge burning moment..... Sign and trade Meyers, Harkless and throw in Davis with both picks. LACs have no picks after the Green trade.

Dame/Roberts
CJ/Crabbe
Aminu/Hendo
Griffin/Luer
Plumlee/Festus

A man can dream.

[Norm2953]

Portland's off season starts first with whether they have their first round pick. It's not likely
to be a franchise changing player for it might be the last pick in the lottery.

Crabbe is a RFA and a west coast guy and unless team vastly overpays him, Portland would
match any offer he gets. Henderson is likely going to get some offers for he's shown he's
an effective bench player and Portland is likely going to give him a fair offer but he's an
east coast guy and likely gone if he can get a decent offer from a contender.


I'm skeptical Portland will sign anyone of significance in FA but will likely seek a trade for that
upgrade up front.

[Goldbum]

Am I missing something why did we waive Side Show Bob??? He's better than Kaman right now and maybe we could trade his expiring contract this summer, especially if he flourished with our open spacing and ball movement. If not, then stretch him this summer. Do you guys think maybe NO cut him to inch us closers to keeping our pick? Knowing Stotts he probably would have ended up resurrecting the guys career( only being half sarcastic).

[Wizenheimer]

4. Resign Allen Crabbe. He is the starting small forward for this roster.

5. Extend CJ McCollum. He is a star in the making. Lock him up.

7. Resign Gerald Henderson and Brian Roberts. As far as backups go, I feel like these two are good options; and, I think fans will come to appreciate Roberts as much as they have grown to appreciate Henderson.

I'm curious what you think those guys will get in average salary.

my guess:

Lillard - 25 million
CJ - 20 million (probably low for a "star in the making")
Crabbe - 12 million
Henderson - 8 million
Roberts - 3 million

68 million

that's a hell of a lot of money to be investing in a back court (Crabbe isn't a SF IMO) when the salary cap is projected to average 102-105 million over the next 5 years. Even in the best case scenarios, that's plunking over 60% of the cap into two positions and 1/3 of the roster, with all the front court players yet to be paid

We can make some trades this summer. we got Cle's 1st in 2020 and I think that's gonna be a lotto pick TBH LBJ has 2 good years left and no more. We also can trade our 2017 pick if we lose this draft pick I think.

unless you think Cleveland is going to lose about 28 games in a row and slip into the top-10 of the lottery, the Blazers will be getting the Cav's 2018 first.

[Norm2953]

I would think in this summer of free agency, Portland would opt to not re-sign CJ to a new
long term deal allowing him to be a restricted FA in 2017. It's quite possible Portland will
play things by the ear with their restricted FA's and monitor what is going on with
Henderson for the final interview after the season has ended will speak volumes as to
what they do.

The goal should be to seek an upgrade at every position on the roster other than PG
for bringing everyone back merely means more seasons like this season. They might as
well toss out some max contract offers to their targeted free agents to see if anyone
wants to sign here but I think ultimately they will seek a trade to upgrade their talent
on the roster.

[Run PDX]

After thinking more about it, and reading Wizenheimer's response to my post, I have started to wonder where the limits might be for our free agents this offseason. How much money is "too much" for us to match?

I think Crabbe is probably the most worthy of a decent contract among our free agents. He could easily make $12.5M.
But, if Crabbe is offered much more by another team, I don't know how the Blazers can match it and keep Aminu.

Harkless is probably somewhere between $5M to $6.5M - if the MLE is worth $8M next season. And, that can change - based upon his play. He might be a good silver medal to Crabbe, if he gets a large offer.

With Henderson, I think he is probably on his last MLE level deal. So, yes, he's probably worth about $8M to $9M. But, I think that he could be worth keeping if we want to maintain a decent bench - especially if Crabbe gets a big offer.

I personally would like to see the Blazers let Leonard go. I think he's going to demand around the same money as Crabbe, because of his height and ability to shoot, but I think Portland would be better served to invest that money into an upgrade at starting Power Forward.

Roberts on a veteran's minimum contract to a part of an MLE deal would not be bad. We will need a serviceable point guard going forward, and I think a veteran like Roberts would not be a bad idea.

And, finally, I want Kaman to coach. But, I would not want to use a roster spot on him. If he wants to go out and try to win a championship, more power to him. But, I think he's an outstanding mentor, and he could be a good coach.

What do you think?

[Wizenheimer]

I think Crabbe is probably the most worthy of a decent contract among our free agents. He could easily make $12.5M.
But, if Crabbe is offered much more by another team, I don't know how the Blazers can match it and keep Aminu.

I really can't get a handle on what Blazer free agents will get

in the past, every time I've predicted what a Blazer player would get in free agency, I've been off by a long ways, and on the low side. They always seem to get more. And it seems an axiom in the NBA that young players showing decent potential almost always get overpaid during their 2nd contract

add all that to all the teams (17-20 or so) that will have major cap-space this summer, even after cap-holds. There has never been so much money chasing so few free agents, and there are always GM's willing to overpay to try and steal an RFA. I think there are going to be a bunch of mind-boggling contracts given out this summer

now, a lot of people are predicting that Evan Fournier will get in the 15-20 million/year range. He's the same age as Crabbe and has very similar numbers. He's a better 3 point shooter and assist man though, but he's not good defensively. But if Fournier gets 15 million/year or more, it doesn't seem likely that Crabbe will only get 12 or 12.5

[Run PDX]

But if Fournier gets 15 million/year or more, it doesn't seem likely that Crabbe will only get 12 or 12.5

If Fournier gets $15M... This summer will be ridiculous.
And, I think the odds of Portland HAVING to make trades to improve the team will increase - because Portland cannot afford to sign three or four players to $15M deals while also keeping Dame and CJ together in the back court for the long term...

[red_power]

I thought about possibility adding Deng here. Imo team definitely needs to upgrade wing position with experienced role player, Moe just duplicate what we already have with Al Farouq, and Henderson simply has to small space behind Crabbe and CJ.
Still Luol is ideal glue guy for start, he has size and experience, can shoot, defend, rebound, and may be covered in fog during summer while teams seems to be wanted load big money in young RFA.
For me it would be ideal consolation prize in FA period.

[red_power]

I though about Marc Gasol trade instead of counting all no name future free agent centers. Memphis team will likely be blown this summer, Marc is gone for around the year, he is already 31 years old and has long contract.
Assuming all of that I see very decent possibility to get for with very reasonable value (about 2 first round picks). Risky option of course but can be worth it.

I might be wrong but I think Gasol is missing the rest of the season because of his 2nd significant foot injury. Gasol is big and he has lots of mass. I'd be real reluctant to take on the contract of a player that big with fragile feet, especially when he's 31 and will turn 32 nest season; and especially considering Portland's history with injury prone bigs

Totally agree. The Grizzlies are a good candidate to blow it up this summer, but after this injury I don't think Gasol would be worth the gamble to go after.

I totally not sold on Plumlee as starting center and don't see somebody like Mahinmi as much better option. On other hand I don't want to ship half of the team away for somebody like DMC.
Marc would be interesting in between option, if he can get solid game form for mid of 2017 season of course.

[Wizenheimer]

But if Fournier gets 15 million/year or more, it doesn't seem likely that Crabbe will only get 12 or 12.5

If Fournier gets $15M... This summer will be ridiculous.
And, I think the odds of Portland HAVING to make trades to improve the team will increase - because Portland cannot afford to sign three or four players to $15M deals while also keeping Dame and CJ together in the back court for the long term...

I have a hard time seeing him get that much but many people in a Fournier prediction thread on the trades board think it will happen.

Terrance Ross got 11 million a year under a 70 million cap with only about 5-6 teams having significant cap-space. It's not easy to see Fournier and Crabbe only getting 12 million a year under a 92 million cap with 17-19 teams having significant cap-space

but the scary thing to me isn't what Crabbe might get under a 92 million cap, but what CJ might get under a 110 million cap, and even scarier is if Portland is paying both already having Lillard locked up at 25 million a year

[Masterfully]

If Fournier gets $15M... This summer will be ridiculous.
And, I think the odds of Portland HAVING to make trades to improve the team will increase - because Portland cannot afford to sign three or four players to $15M deals while also keeping Dame and CJ together in the back court for the long term...

Yes, Portland can afford that. It's not ideal, but easily affordable. Say CJ gets $20M and there are 4 other players getting $15M. That'd put Portland at $105M (for 6 players) in the summer where the cap is expected to be around $110M. Keep in mind that CJ's extension won't hit the cap this summer.

Obviously Portland would go over the cap to fill out the rest of the roster, but almost every team goes over the cap.

[Wizenheimer]

If Fournier gets $15M... This summer will be ridiculous.
And, I think the odds of Portland HAVING to make trades to improve the team will increase - because Portland cannot afford to sign three or four players to $15M deals while also keeping Dame and CJ together in the back court for the long term...

Yes, Portland can afford that. It's not ideal, but easily affordable. Say CJ gets $20M and there are 4 other players getting $15M. That'd put Portland at $105M (for 6 players) in the summer where the cap is expected to be around $110M. Keep in mind that CJ's extension won't hit the cap this summer.

Obviously Portland would go over the cap to fill out the rest of the roster, but almost every team goes over the cap.

I've pointed out before that the 108-110 million cap in 2017-18 is the high water mark. The NBA, based upon some quirks in the TV revenue is projecting the cap to drop back down close to 100 million and not exceed the 17-18 cap for the next 3 seasons:

the latest salary-cap forecasts as well as projected jumps in the luxury tax threshold from its current figure of $76.8 million to $81.6 million next season, $108 million in 2016-17 and $127 million in 2017-18, sources said.

In subsequent years, sources said, league officials are projecting a slight decrease in the cap, down to $100 million in 2018-19 (with a $121 million tax line), $102 million in 2019-20 (with a $124 million tax line) and $107 million in 2020-21 with a $130 million tax line.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12711616/teams-told-nba-salary-cap-hit-100m-2017-18-season

in your case, the one where the Blazers are paying 6 guys 105 million/year, the important line isn't the salary cap, it's the luxury tax threshold. If Portland is paying 6 guys close to 105 million in 2018-19, then they have 9 roster spots to fill with only a 16 million dollar margin before they exceed the threshold. Your hypothetical just doesn't seem realistic, not if Paul Allen doesn't want to pay millions in luxury tax and hamstring roster flexibility. Even if the cap and tax lines bump up 3 or 4 million, there's still not enough of a margin

[Masterfully]

The lux tax threshold is indeed the important figure. It will surely go up, but even if it doesn't 9 players for $16M is realistic. The Cavs payroll this year is $105M, yet they have 6 players totalling about $9M in cap space at the end of their bench. You are gonna have some low paid vets and Montero/Alexander level rookies holding down spots. And you could leave the 15th spot open.