Blazer77 wrote:JasonStern wrote:DusterBuster wrote:That doesn't change the fact that these are very likely situations the team is dealing with this summer
Other than maybe the 76ers who overvalue Simmons and could see a Dame/Simmons trade, what team do you believe is not accepting a realistic trade that benefits both sides because of Damian Lillard trade speculation?
The Blazers aren't playing from a position of power. But they also aren't playing from a position of weakness. Maybe the Dame uncertainty affected free agency signings, but even that is questionable as Powell came back, the Blazers are dangerously close to the luxury tax threshold, and the only signings they have made have been veteran minimum contracts.
I like Jason Quick and all, but if Olshey says to push an agenda, he kind of has to or risk losing access to the team. And the idea that - gosh, darn it! We were
this close to making a big move for the first time in Olshey's tenure, but uncertainty about Dame's future in Portland caused the trade to fall apart reeks of someone making excuses to cover their ---.
Blazer77 wrote:
Totally true. Rebuilding teams should stay away from CJ. However, there are some teams who are at the beginning of their climb, and they might be enticed to give up significant value in return. And, there are teams who feel they underachieved last season, and these teams may also be enticed to give significant value in return.
I'm not saying CJ isn't positive value. 20+ppg fringe all-star players, even when overpaid, aren't as common as RealGM makes you believe. But CJ has his flaws. And if you can't route him to a rebuilding team, the best you can realistically expect is routing him to another win-now team. But if you're doing that, you risk the other win-now team cutting Portland out if Portland is getting the best player in the deal. That's why the CJ for Tobias Harris trade gets thrown around so much. Both are talented but flawed players on large contracts whose skillsets could potentially benefit the other team.
I've always struggled with Tobias Harris. I feel like the idea of Tobias Harris is better than actual Tobias Harris. It seems like he lives in the land of potential. One of those "young" players who one day you turn around and realize that this is all they'll be. I think the appeal of CJ is that because he's often duplicative of Lillard, there's an appeal to how his game might expand away from Lillard. CJ, to me, has a strong potential to get 25+ ppg on a win-now team, simply because he could (emphasis here on could) get more touches and higher usage.
It's a tough one. It's easy for me to say the type of player I want in return, but ultimately that player has to have a name. Theoretically, I'd love to move him for a PF who can defend both spots (totally Siakam in my head), but that's a shortlist. And my biased opinion slots CJ's value as equivalent to Simmons (who I'd like to see utilized as a PF). In my head a deal centered around CJ for Simmons is a win-win. . .but I don't think that's near the reality.
One thing that gives me hope that a trade is possible (again emphasis on possible and not likely) is retaining Powell. He seems like a really good fit next to Dame in the backcourt. And that point we can seek out an asset (or maybe two) that could make things interesting.
I just wish I wasn't so underwhelmed by the Billups hire.
Tobias Harris 20/21 29YO
PER 20.0
TS .597
3PTar .225
FTr .221
AST% 17.6
USG 23.9
OWS 4.1 DWS 3.1 WS 7.1
WS48 .170
OBPM 2.8 DBPM 0.5 BPM 3.4
VORP 2.7
On/Off +4.0
Ben Simmons 20/21 25YO
PER 18.2
TS .584
3PTar .017
FTr .492
AST% 31.3
USG 20.2
OWS 2.7 DWS 3.3 WS 6.0
WS48 .153
OBPM 0.8 DBPM 1.9 BPM 2.7
VORP 2.2
On/Off +6.2
Pascal Siakiam 20/21 27YO
PER 17.7
TS .547
3PTar .256
FTr .313
AST% 20.5
USG 26.3
OWS 2.3 DWS 2.0 WS 4.2
WS48 .101
OBPM 0.8 DBPM -0.4 BPM 0.4
VORP 1.2
On/Off +8.6
I know advanced stats are not everything, and this doesnt really address contract, but its hard to convince me the difference between Tobias and Ben/Pascal is worth numerous FRP's (Which, again, it absolutely would take). Not only that, but we likely, IMO, could get an additional asset in a CJ/Harris swap.
Harris gets a bad wrap, but he is absolutely a high-to-middle tier #3 option. I think neither Pascal or Ben are middle tier #2's, and Simmons skillset is so odd that its hard to argue where the hell he would fit in an 'option' pecking order.
IDK, I think literally the body type of Pascal as a skinny, twitchy looking jumbo forward gets him overrated in comparison to the almost pudgy Tobias, but the playing level on court just isnt that far apart.
These are the best options we have in a CJ swap, and none of them vaults us into contention. Get the cheapest one, keep the picks and give us some false hope. And if the stars align (As they sorta did this PO w/ all the superstar injuries) we would have a punchers chance to make some PO noise. Then again, the stars aligning two POs in a row is very unlikely. But Harris is 100% the best value while keeping the future in play.