What's the Blazers Headline Aug 1st?

[monopoman]

I'm going the big-bet unlikely optimistic route that the Blazers get lucky and end up with a Top 4 pick. Pretty low probability, so long betting odds, but good return if it hits.

I think Jason's timeline probably is the most realistic / worst payout odds.

It's not that low of a probability worst case the Blazers have a 20ish% chance at a top 4 pick. 1 out of 5 isn't great but it's not bad this isn't like 10 years ago when the best odds were weighted heavily towards the worst 4 or 5 teams.

http://Tankathon.com is the best site to keep track of who owes what pick and chance to get a top 4 pick.

Interesting site. They actually project that NOP will finish with a worse record than POR, with NOP having a 26.3% chance of a top 4 pick and POR at 20.3% - so that's a 46.6% chance of getting a top 4 pick.

I just ran their lottery simulator 10 times. We ended up with either the 8th and 9th or 9th and 10th picks 7 times, with the 4th pick once, the 2nd pick once and with picks 1 and 2 once (lol - too good to even hope for).

Edit: oops never mind. If the pick is top 4, NOP keeps it. The best we can hope for is our pick breaks into the top 4 and the NOP pick ends up top 10.

Yep NOP did not want to give up a top 4 pick with the CJ trade, a potential top pick in this draft is worth a good chunk more than usual. Best possible for us is Blazers get a top 4 pick and NO gets the 7th or 8th pick or something like that.

[BNM]

It's not that low of a probability worst case the Blazers have a 20ish% chance at a top 4 pick. 1 out of 5 isn't great but it's not bad this isn't like 10 years ago when the best odds were weighted heavily towards the worst 4 or 5 teams.

http://Tankathon.com is the best site to keep track of who owes what pick and chance to get a top 4 pick.

Interesting site. They actually project that NOP will finish with a worse record than POR, with NOP having a 26.3% chance of a top 4 pick and POR at 20.3% - so that's a 46.6% chance of getting a top 4 pick.

I just ran their lottery simulator 10 times. We ended up with either the 8th and 9th or 9th and 10th picks 7 times, with the 4th pick once, the 2nd pick once and with picks 1 and 2 once (lol - too good to even hope for).

Edit: oops never mind. If the pick is top 4, NOP keeps it. The best we can hope for is our pick breaks into the top 4 and the NOP pick ends up top 10.

Yep NOP did not want to give up a top 4 pick with the CJ trade, a potential top pick in this draft is worth a good chunk more than usual. Best possible for us is Blazers get a top 4 pick and NO gets the 7th or 8th pick or something like that.

Tankathon currently has POR as 3rd in their Draft Power Rankings projecting we will have the following four picks: 8, 9, 39, 58. We are the only team they project to have multiple lottery picks (and two in the top 9, at that).

Suppose we do end up with picks 8 and 9 (and assuming we don't trade one, or both, in a package for an established star), in this draft, would we be better off taking two players at 8 and 9, or trading those two picks to move into the top 5?

[DusterBuster]

Interesting site. They actually project that NOP will finish with a worse record than POR, with NOP having a 26.3% chance of a top 4 pick and POR at 20.3% - so that's a 46.6% chance of getting a top 4 pick.

I just ran their lottery simulator 10 times. We ended up with either the 8th and 9th or 9th and 10th picks 7 times, with the 4th pick once, the 2nd pick once and with picks 1 and 2 once (lol - too good to even hope for).

Edit: oops never mind. If the pick is top 4, NOP keeps it. The best we can hope for is our pick breaks into the top 4 and the NOP pick ends up top 10.

Yep NOP did not want to give up a top 4 pick with the CJ trade, a potential top pick in this draft is worth a good chunk more than usual. Best possible for us is Blazers get a top 4 pick and NO gets the 7th or 8th pick or something like that.

Tankathon currently has POR as 3rd in their Draft Power Rankings projecting we will have the following four picks: 8, 9, 39, 58. We are the only team they project to have multiple lottery picks (and two in the top 9, at that).

Suppose we do end up with picks 8 and 9 (and assuming we don't trade one, or both, in a package for an established star), in this draft, would we be better off taking two players at 8 and 9, or trading those two picks to move into the top 5?

You aren't getting into the Top 5 of this draft with 8 and 9. Most scouts are saying this is a 4 player draft and a pretty significant dropoff after 4. So maybeeeee you could get the 5th pick, but even that is probably unlikely. 8 and 9 probably realistically only get you up to like #6.

[wjun15]

they could just lose every game from now on and finish 5th which would give great chance for top 4 but unfortunately nurk is playing for his contract and players playing for their NBA lives like winslow Elleby

[BlazersBroncos]

This is what I think fits within reality and a good ending:

Resign Ant + Nurkic, operate as an over the cap team
Opt in for Bledsoe (Keep his 19M EC on the books to see if a trade opportunity opens up during the 22/23 season, gives us a nice bit defensive backup PG in the meantime)
PDX + NO picks fall around 8-10
Trade TPE + 1 of the 2 picks for Jonathan Issac
Resign McLemore for BAE (Designated shooter to alleviate some non-shooters in rotation)
Resign Trenton Watford for Vet Min (Can play a number of positions and gives high effort

Draft

LP - Jalen Duren C *** Super athletic and a great ying to the Nurkic yang. As Jusuf is best at 24-28mpg there is PT for him and in 3 years or so we re-evaluate and move / dont resign Nurkic if Duren is developing well ***
PDX SRP - Ron Harper JR F *** I think he projects well as a 3/D forward who can guard both SF and PF - Elite motor and effort fits the new culture IMO ***
MEM SRP - Euro statsh

G - Damian Lillard / Eric Bledsoe / (Anfernee Simons)
G - Anfernee Simons / Ben McLemore / Keon Johnson
F - Josh Hart / Nassir Little / Ron Harper JR
F - Jonathan Issac / Justice Winslow / Greg Brown
C - Jusuf Nurkic / Jalen Duren / Trenton Watford

[Brandon-Clyde]

So apparently Harden "accidentally" forgot to opt in on time

[DusterBuster]

So apparently Harden "accidentally" forgot to opt in on time

Also gotta get a laugh at Simmons' mental health problems magically disappearing and being ready to join the Nets for practice on Day 1... the people on the GB (including some mods) who fought so hard to back him just because he pulled the MH card... **** ridiculous. As though that wasn't the most obvious lie in the history of lies.

[wjun15]

This is what I think fits within reality and a good ending:

Resign Ant + Nurkic, operate as an over the cap team
Opt in for Bledsoe (Keep his 19M EC on the books to see if a trade opportunity opens up during the 22/23 season, gives us a nice bit defensive backup PG in the meantime)
PDX + NO picks fall around 8-10
Trade TPE + 1 of the 2 picks for Jonathan Issac
Resign McLemore for BAE (Designated shooter to alleviate some non-shooters in rotation)
Resign Trenton Watford for Vet Min (Can play a number of positions and gives high effort

Draft

LP - Jalen Duren C *** Super athletic and a great ying to the Nurkic yang. As Jusuf is best at 24-28mpg there is PT for him and in 3 years or so we re-evaluate and move / dont resign Nurkic if Duren is developing well ***
PDX SRP - Ron Harper JR F *** I think he projects well as a 3/D forward who can guard both SF and PF - Elite motor and effort fits the new culture IMO ***
MEM SRP - Euro statsh

G - Damian Lillard / Eric Bledsoe / (Anfernee Simons)
G - Anfernee Simons / Ben McLemore / Keon Johnson
F - Josh Hart / Nassir Little / Ron Harper JR
F - Jonathan Issac / Justice Winslow / Greg Brown
C - Jusuf Nurkic / Jalen Duren / Trenton Watford

Josh hart as your starting sf I'm not sure about that. and that's too much given up for Issac. Dame knows damn well this team is not competing for a chip

[DusterBuster]

This is what I think fits within reality and a good ending:

Resign Ant + Nurkic, operate as an over the cap team
Opt in for Bledsoe (Keep his 19M EC on the books to see if a trade opportunity opens up during the 22/23 season, gives us a nice bit defensive backup PG in the meantime)
PDX + NO picks fall around 8-10
Trade TPE + 1 of the 2 picks for Jonathan Issac
Resign McLemore for BAE (Designated shooter to alleviate some non-shooters in rotation)
Resign Trenton Watford for Vet Min (Can play a number of positions and gives high effort

Draft

LP - Jalen Duren C *** Super athletic and a great ying to the Nurkic yang. As Jusuf is best at 24-28mpg there is PT for him and in 3 years or so we re-evaluate and move / dont resign Nurkic if Duren is developing well ***
PDX SRP - Ron Harper JR F *** I think he projects well as a 3/D forward who can guard both SF and PF - Elite motor and effort fits the new culture IMO ***
MEM SRP - Euro statsh

G - Damian Lillard / Eric Bledsoe / (Anfernee Simons)
G - Anfernee Simons / Ben McLemore / Keon Johnson
F - Josh Hart / Nassir Little / Ron Harper JR
F - Jonathan Issac / Justice Winslow / Greg Brown
C - Jusuf Nurkic / Jalen Duren / Trenton Watford

Josh hart as your starting sf I'm not sure about that. and that's too much given up for Issac. Dame knows damn well this team is not competing for a chip

Yeah, I don't love Hart at SF either. Feels like another Powell situation.

Then again, I don't love Simons at SG, but it seems that's where we're headed... so wtf do I know.

[BlazersBroncos]

Hart has played nearly 60% of his minutes in the L at SF and was playing nearly all since coming to NO. He even played PF in NO with good result.

He and Little are the same height and while he doesn’t have Nas wingspan he is a much smarter defender and I would argue takes contact better despite a slight weight difference.

He is for sure a SF IMO.

[BlazersBroncos]

What about this, assuming we end up w/ 8 + 10:

TPE + 10 for Jonathan Issac + 32
Eric Bledsoe + Keon Johnson + 32 + Future LP FRP for Malcolm Brogdan

G - Damian Lillard / Malcolm Brogdan / Dennis Smith JR
G - Anfernee Simons / Malcolm Brogdan / Ben McLemore
F - Josh Hart / Nassir Little / CJ Elleby
F - Jonathan Issac / Justice Winslow / Greg Brown
C - Jusuf Nurkic / Jalen Duren (8) / Trenton Watford

[Norm2953]

The last thing Portland needs is another chronically injured big.

[DusterBuster]

What about this, assuming we end up w/ 8 + 10:

TPE + 10 for Jonathan Issac + 32
Eric Bledsoe + Keon Johnson + 32 + Future LP FRP for Malcolm Brogdan

G - Damian Lillard / Malcolm Brogdan / Dennis Smith JR
G - Anfernee Simons / Malcolm Brogdan / Ben McLemore
F - Josh Hart / Nassir Little / CJ Elleby
F - Jonathan Issac / Justice Winslow / Greg Brown
C - Jusuf Nurkic / Jalen Duren (8) / Trenton Watford

Not a huge fan of Issac. Don't love giving up a lottery pick for him and I think that extension he got is going to look pretty bad soon (already does).

Don't love the idea of Brogdan as backup either. Hart should probably be the 6th man if the Blazers are destined for the Lillard/Simons backcourt. I know you brought up why you think he can play SF, but I don't buy it. Just cause he has played those position doesn't mean you're putting him in the best position to be successful every time on the floor. Just because he can do something doesn't me he should.

[BlazersBroncos]

What about this, assuming we end up w/ 8 + 10:

TPE + 10 for Jonathan Issac + 32
Eric Bledsoe + Keon Johnson + 32 + Future LP FRP for Malcolm Brogdan

G - Damian Lillard / Malcolm Brogdan / Dennis Smith JR
G - Anfernee Simons / Malcolm Brogdan / Ben McLemore
F - Josh Hart / Nassir Little / CJ Elleby
F - Jonathan Issac / Justice Winslow / Greg Brown
C - Jusuf Nurkic / Jalen Duren (8) / Trenton Watford

Not a huge fan of Issac. Don't love giving up a lottery pick for him and I think that extension he got is going to look pretty bad soon (already does).

Don't love the idea of Brogdan as backup either. Hart should probably be the 6th man if the Blazers are destined for the Lillard/Simons backcourt. I know you brought up why you think he can play SF, but I don't buy it. Just cause he has played those position doesn't mean you're putting him in the best position to be successful every time on the floor. Just because he can do something doesn't me he should.

I just dont see how Nas is considered a pure SF (And even able to play PF) at 6'5 but Hart at the same height, with a much better career so far at SF, is a SG. I see few better options at SF outside a star trade. The 6'8 SF's are just tremendously rare. Even now guys like Barnes, Grant, DFS, etc are all playing much more at PF than SF.

Brogdan would be a backup in name only. He would get 30mpg behind Dame and Ant. He is the exact type of guy the team seems to be targeting.

JI is a risk but we have draft capital to roll the dice. Elite defender with rare size and enough flashes on offense to give hope (And you dont need him to score too much w/ Dame + Ant getting 45-50 per night combined, Hart + Jusuf being 15ppg guys as well).

[Norm2953]

I think I'd rather gamble on someone like Nikola Jovic in the late lottery than gamble on Isaac. He's
another those big (6-10) Euros who can handle the ball, similar to Franz Wagner who plays for the Magic.

[The Sebastian Express]

What about this, assuming we end up w/ 8 + 10:

TPE + 10 for Jonathan Issac + 32
Eric Bledsoe + Keon Johnson + 32 + Future LP FRP for Malcolm Brogdan

G - Damian Lillard / Malcolm Brogdan / Dennis Smith JR
G - Anfernee Simons / Malcolm Brogdan / Ben McLemore
F - Josh Hart / Nassir Little / CJ Elleby
F - Jonathan Issac / Justice Winslow / Greg Brown
C - Jusuf Nurkic / Jalen Duren (8) / Trenton Watford

Not a huge fan of Issac. Don't love giving up a lottery pick for him and I think that extension he got is going to look pretty bad soon (already does).

Don't love the idea of Brogdan as backup either. Hart should probably be the 6th man if the Blazers are destined for the Lillard/Simons backcourt. I know you brought up why you think he can play SF, but I don't buy it. Just cause he has played those position doesn't mean you're putting him in the best position to be successful every time on the floor. Just because he can do something doesn't me he should.

I just dont see how Nas is considered a pure SF (And even able to play PF) at 6'5 but Hart at the same height, with a much better career so far at SF, is a SG. I see few better options at SF outside a star trade. The 6'8 SF's are just tremendously rare. Even now guys like Barnes, Grant, DFS, etc are all playing much more at PF than SF.

Brogdan would be a backup in name only. He would get 30mpg behind Dame and Ant. He is the exact type of guy the team seems to be targeting.

JI is a risk but we have draft capital to roll the dice. Elite defender with rare size and enough flashes on offense to give hope (And you dont need him to score too much w/ Dame + Ant getting 45-50 per night combined, Hart + Jusuf being 15ppg guys as well).

Probably because Nassir has a wingspan three inchers longer.

[BlazersBroncos]

Not a huge fan of Issac. Don't love giving up a lottery pick for him and I think that extension he got is going to look pretty bad soon (already does).

Don't love the idea of Brogdan as backup either. Hart should probably be the 6th man if the Blazers are destined for the Lillard/Simons backcourt. I know you brought up why you think he can play SF, but I don't buy it. Just cause he has played those position doesn't mean you're putting him in the best position to be successful every time on the floor. Just because he can do something doesn't me he should.

I just dont see how Nas is considered a pure SF (And even able to play PF) at 6'5 but Hart at the same height, with a much better career so far at SF, is a SG. I see few better options at SF outside a star trade. The 6'8 SF's are just tremendously rare. Even now guys like Barnes, Grant, DFS, etc are all playing much more at PF than SF.

Brogdan would be a backup in name only. He would get 30mpg behind Dame and Ant. He is the exact type of guy the team seems to be targeting.

JI is a risk but we have draft capital to roll the dice. Elite defender with rare size and enough flashes on offense to give hope (And you dont need him to score too much w/ Dame + Ant getting 45-50 per night combined, Hart + Jusuf being 15ppg guys as well).

Probably because Nassir has a wingspan three inchers longer.

I get that, but I still think given the relative dearth of prototypical sized SF you can roll with a guy like Hart. I dont see this as a Norm Powell situation. Hart plays bigger than his listed size, hell he was at 7rpg at SF in NO.

If we want a upgrade at SF the pickings are slim (Taking into account availability). Maybe Hayward, but he makes a ton and do you want to use a lotto pick here? BC thats what he will cost. Grant has been discussed alot but he has been a PF for a few seasons now, and again will cost a lotto pick. Barnes, but SAC is going for win-now and IMO he isnt available (Nor is he worth a lotto pick IMO).

I mean, looking at this list and the league wide availability of guys you cant really tell me there is a better option than Hart:

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-rankings-rumors-top-22-small-forwards-2021-22-season-lebron-durant-luka/

I think even if we used a lotto pick to pick up Grant we would end up starting him at PF and Hart at SF.

Maybe we could get BB from Utah for the TPE and a smaller asset, but his footspeed is so poor he is also a PF IMO.

[BlazersBroncos]

Realistically, I think this has a shot (Say we keep playing well and end up 15, NO keeps stinking and ends up 6)

Bledsoe + 15 for Grant
Sign Pat Connaughton w/ MLE - This guy really seems like the type of player the FO and Billups will chase IMO
Resign Simons, Nurkic, McLemore
Draft Jalen Duran 6, Jamie Jaquez JR 39

G - Damian Lillard / Anfernee Simons / Dennis Smith JR
G - Anfernee Simons / Pat Connaughton / Ben McLemore / Jamie Jaquez JR
F - Josh Hart / Nas Little / Ben McLemore / Jamie Jaquez JR
F - Jerami Grant / Justice Winslow / Greg Brown
C - Jusuf Nurkic / Jalen Duren / Trendon Watford

I think that team can be a top 3 seed in the West with a bit of luck (IE Health, Simons + Little development, Duren being playable as a PNR finisher + defender, Winslow and Hart playing at or near current level, etc).

[Wizenheimer]

Realistically, I think this has a shot (Say we keep playing well and end up 15, NO keeps stinking and ends up 6)

Bledsoe + 15 for Grant
Sign Pat Connaughton w/ MLE - This guy really seems like the type of player the FO and Billups will chase IMO
Resign Simons, Nurkic, McLemore
Draft Jalen Duran 6, Jamie Jaquez JR 39

G - Damian Lillard / Anfernee Simons / Dennis Smith JR
G - Anfernee Simons / Pat Connaughton / Ben McLemore / Jamie Jaquez JR
F - Josh Hart / Nas Little / Ben McLemore / Jamie Jaquez JR
F - Jerami Grant / Justice Winslow / Greg Brown
C - Jusuf Nurkic / Jalen Duren / Trendon Watford

I think that team can be a top 3 seed in the West with a bit of luck (IE Health, Simons + Little development, Duren being playable as a PNR finisher + defender, Winslow and Hart playing at or near current level, etc).

if Portland is at #15, they lose the pick to Chicago. If the Pels are at 6 pre-lottery, they have a 37% chance of being in the top4 and keeping that pick

don't get me wrong, I'd love if the Blazers have the Pels pick and it's #6. Those are just risky odds

as for Portland's pick, factoring in their record, their schedule, and how they've been playing I think they will very likely be in the play-in. Meaning their pick would either convey to Chicago or fall in the 11-14 range. Having #6 or #7 + #12 or #13 would give the Blazers really nice trade leverage.

But I'm not sure that's much better than Portland making the playoffs and having #6 or #7 + all of their future 1st's back. Getting rid of that obligation that olshey attached to the Nance trade would be a giant relief for the Blazers. That's been hanging over Portland for the entire season. Even then, if it ends up that Portland gives up a 15th or 16th pick for 37 games of Nance, it's olshey's final FU to the Blazers. What a crap trade

[GEE]

I will continue to hope that good KARMA gives us a "Headline" similar to what Golden State had oh so recently, when they got a top 3 pick and a lower end lottery pick, and used them to draft players. May have been a much weaker draft that year too well iirc. Hoping one rises high enough to get Chet, and if one falls lower to the 10-14 range, that would be just fine. Hell, even if we lost one of the FRP picks this year, I'd still be 100% stoked, if we just landed Chet, with a smart 2nd round selection too.

But I do still worry those picks won't be used by us. Surely... Lots of drama ahead!