ESPN Predicts 35 Wins - Over or Under?

[zzaj]

As with EVERY season, injuries will dictate everything--including who the champs will be. If the Blazers best 8 players stay completely healthy and play at the level of which they are capable? Then the Blazers can be an above .500 team. If there are key injuries I would expect somewhere around <40 wins.

[Goldbum]

What the devil was the point of Grant + GP2 + Hart and Winslow if this is a 40ish win team? If we are going to fight to make the play in we should just blow this thing up...IDK I think we are better than that, but if I'm wrong then those with better data should be making smarter decisions. Doubling down on the tank saves the Nance pick, add the picks possible from Hart/Winslow trades and if we are not going to make noise we need to make change.

[JasonStern]

41-41. 7th or 8th seed. Swept in the first round by Golden State.

[ebott]

What the devil was the point of Grant + GP2 + Hart and Winslow if this is a 40ish win team? If we are going to fight to make the play in we should just blow this thing up...IDK I think we are better than that, but if I'm wrong then those with better data should be making smarter decisions. Doubling down on the tank saves the Nance pick, add the picks possible from Hart/Winslow trades and if we are not going to make noise we need to make change.

To Show Dame we're trying so he doesn't demand a trade.

[GEE]

41-41. 7th or 8th seed. Swept in the first round by Golden State.

Respectfully... I think what you predict, equals what we've seen for almost a decade now, what we sometimes call... "The Treadmill". But I think our team has made enough MAJOR changes to warrant some optimism, but not a whole lot considering we must be planning to still go 6'1 and 6'4 at the 1 & 2. Big difference should be with Chauncey's desire to push the ball, and play at a much faster pace (on both ends OTF) than we ever saw with Stotts... which was only a year ago. Can't go Small, if you don't play Fast. Player rotations will be The Key.

And as for Dame "demanding a trade", HA-HA-HA, HARDY, HAR-HAR. This is the absolute least of my worries. IMO, there is absolutely zero market for him right now.

[monopoman]

What the devil was the point of Grant + GP2 + Hart and Winslow if this is a 40ish win team? If we are going to fight to make the play in we should just blow this thing up...IDK I think we are better than that, but if I'm wrong then those with better data should be making smarter decisions. Doubling down on the tank saves the Nance pick, add the picks possible from Hart/Winslow trades and if we are not going to make noise we need to make change.

I think this team at it's peak is a 50ish win team, but that requires everything going right.

Grant is a great pickup that fits this team like a glove.
Sharpe looks like he can contribute at least somewhat early in the season.
Simons and Little both look great from game 1.
Lillard is fully healthy and playing at the level he was pre-injury.
Nurkic has his best season as far as health is concerned and he looks like a beast.
The team as a whole is relatively healthy.

Sure if nearly every single thing on this list happens I could easily see 50 or more wins.

[m0ng0]

41-41. 7th or 8th seed. Swept in the first round by Golden State.

And as for Dame "demanding a trade", HA-HA-HA, HARDY, HAR-HAR. This is the absolute least of my worries. IMO, there is absolutely zero market for him right now.

This is so comical, One workout would have put anyone's fears to rest. Stop this oh we couldn't have got anything for him anyways. I just love how we justify sucking or mediocrity by keeping Dame because that's what winning franchises do.

[JasonStern]

41-41. 7th or 8th seed. Swept in the first round by Golden State.

Respectfully... I think what you predict, equals what we've seen for almost a decade now, what we sometimes call... "The Treadmill". But I think our team has made enough MAJOR changes to warrant some optimism

No, but they've started doing this fascinating thing where they have both win-now pieces in Dame, Grant, Nurkić, Hart, etc., but also some solid young talent prospects in Sharpe, Simons, Little, etc. While I have a feeling nothing will come from it, you have young talent you could trade to win-now if the veterans overachieve. Likewise, you have veterans you could trade to speed up a rebuild. Or you could likely overpay players and run up against the salary cap and let them walk to free money to overpay players and run up against the salary cap.

[Norm2953]

41-41. 7th or 8th seed. Swept in the first round by Golden State.

Respectfully... I think what you predict, equals what we've seen for almost a decade now, what we sometimes call... "The Treadmill". But I think our team has made enough MAJOR changes to warrant some optimism

No, but they've started doing this fascinating thing where they have both win-now pieces in Dame, Grant, Nurkić, Hart, etc., but also some solid young talent prospects in Sharpe, Simons, Little, etc. While I have a feeling nothing will come from it, you have young talent you could trade to win-now if the veterans overachieve. Likewise, you have veterans you could trade to speed up a rebuild. Or you could likely overpay players and run up against the salary cap and let them walk to free money to overpay players and run up against the salary cap.

It does make you wonder if Portland had a viable Durant trade, if they would pull the trigger.

Dame, Simons and Nurkic having signed new deals/extensions would not traded but let's say everyone else on the
roster was put up along with all the picks/pick swaps (restrictions on the Chicago would negotiated).

I can't see Brooklyn accepting any Durant trade to Portland but if there were a viable trade, would Portland pull
the trigger?

[PDXKnight]

Respectfully... I think what you predict, equals what we've seen for almost a decade now, what we sometimes call... "The Treadmill". But I think our team has made enough MAJOR changes to warrant some optimism

No, but they've started doing this fascinating thing where they have both win-now pieces in Dame, Grant, Nurkić, Hart, etc., but also some solid young talent prospects in Sharpe, Simons, Little, etc. While I have a feeling nothing will come from it, you have young talent you could trade to win-now if the veterans overachieve. Likewise, you have veterans you could trade to speed up a rebuild. Or you could likely overpay players and run up against the salary cap and let them walk to free money to overpay players and run up against the salary cap.

It does make you wonder if Portland had a viable Durant trade, if they would pull the trigger.

Dame, Simons and Nurkic having signed new deals/extensions would not traded but let's say everyone else on the
roster was put up along with all the picks/pick swaps (restrictions on the Chicago would negotiated).

I can't see Brooklyn accepting any Durant trade to Portland but if there were a viable trade, would Portland pull
the trigger?

I have to think if there's a way without trading Dame you have to consider. The biggest thing to weigh would be whether the cost of mortgaging a boatload of draft capital gets us a title and if the answer is a definite good shot at winning it all I think you pull the trigger Ideally maintaining as much win now talent as humanly possible since after all its a win now move. Something like Dame-Hart-KD-grant-nurk as a starting 5 would be solid then do whatever we can to flip anf grant picks and or whatever else for a third star to get us into title mode. If however we gut the team and it's Dame Durant and a bunch of guys who would be lucky to be a 7th-12th man on any other nba roster we probably need to go the other way and deal Dame instead. So basically our finished roster after any hypothetical deal is significantly important here and should dictate how we approach this

[BlazersBroncos]

I really dont see a KD trade being viable given the asking price. I dont think we can beat PHX or BOS unless SS comes out of the gate and is getting like 15ppg.

[JasonStern]

Olshey screwed the team over bad with the protections on the Larry Nance Jr. trade. Until that pick conveys, the Blazers are rather limited on mortgaging the future. But in Olshey's defense, he did bunt for the fences.

[GEE]

Whenever I read someone suggest that we should consider trading Simons for a "star", I throw-up in my mouth a little. I watched Simons and Chauncey bonding in the games he played last season, and I recall him absolutely torching alot of really good NBA guards, consistently night after night. ANT is a STAR! I'd even place a tiny wager, though I'm not a betting man, that he may often outplay Dame, if given reign to do so. It's to the point I'll continue to stress... I worry most about Chauncey and Dame, and if they will make the same connection that Simons made with Chauncey last season. If Dame can, we may have ourselves 2 All-Stars next season. If he doesn't change his game, and wants to play like he did under Stotts, we're simply screwed.

As for KD... Screw Him! I've lost a great deal of respect for him, and wouldn't want him even if he was affordable, which he isn't. And who knows where he'll want to play another year from now. Must suck a little for GMs, when they sign a guy(not necessarily KD) to a monster deal, only to have that player ask out of the deal after one year. And then have the nerve to give a tiny list of destinations he wants to get traded to. Just BARF!

On a side note, LBJ just did like James Harden, and signed a very reasonable two year extension with the Fakers. Night and Day in comparison to Dames. Just say'n.

[monopoman]

I really dont see a KD trade being viable given the asking price. I dont think we can beat PHX or BOS unless SS comes out of the gate and is getting like 15ppg.

Currently a trade doesn't even work without including Dame. After 6 months into the season, I believe we could trade some of our re-signed players like Simons.

So any trade happening that puts Durant in Portland is not happening until we get well into the season.

[jebdrbhjb]

This team isn't 15 wins behind the T-Wolves...geez if that was the Vegas line I would lay down a 6 figure bet.

DraftKings has the Blazers O/U at 39.5

[mighty_duck]

DraftKings has the Blazers O/U at 39.5

That's a more realistic number.
We'll exceed it if all of these happen:
1. The new pieces click, and we play energized defense
2. Dame and Nurk don't lose significant time
3. There's reasonable growth from Ant and Nas
4. Two of the players outside our top 6-7 prove they deserve to be in the NBA this season (and not G-League material)

I wish I were more optimistic. But the team feels like it has too many holes, and not enough elite talent. I'd go under that 39.5.

[DaVoiceMaster]

DraftKings has the Blazers O/U at 39.5

That's a more realistic number.
We'll exceed it if all of these happen:
1. The new pieces click, and we play energized defense
2. Dame and Nurk don't lose significant time
3. There's reasonable growth from Ant and Nas
4. Two of the players outside our top 6-7 prove they deserve to be in the NBA this season (and not G-League material)

1. Lillard
2. Simon's
3. Hart
4. Grant
5. Nurkic
6. Winslow
7. Payton II
8. Little

I think the top 7 are already NBA players and Little has shown he can play when healthy. Did you mean 6/7 or did you mean some from below:

9. Johnson
10. Watford
11. Eubanks
12. Sharpe
13. Walker
14. Hughes
15.

I think they are a starting SF and backup C from really competing. The SF may be enough to compete, given the variety of backup bugs they have and going small.

[Goldbum]

Is Hughes with the team? I didn't think he had a chance to sniff the NBA this year... really hope they are not considering keeping that guy. Just looked slow and indecisive. I don't think he's an NBA player he's probably not even Blevins and that's says a lot.

[mighty_duck]

1. Lillard
2. Simon's
3. Hart
4. Grant
5. Nurkic
6. Winslow
7. Payton II
8. Little

I think the top 7 are already NBA players and Little has shown he can play when healthy. Did you mean 6/7 or did you mean some from below:

9. Johnson
10. Watford
11. Eubanks
12. Sharpe
13. Walker
14. Hughes
15.

I think they are a starting SF and backup C from really competing. The SF may be enough to compete, given the variety of backup bugs they have and going small.

I'm not completely sold on either Winslow (durability, size, offense) or Little.
But even if they do work out, for the regular season an 8 man rotation is borderline problematic. Especially given the injury history of those 8. I stand by what I said - to exceed 39 wins, we'd need one more legitimate NBA rotation player, whether it is out the second group you mentioned, or a free agent pickup or trade.

[DaVoiceMaster]

1. Lillard
2. Simon's
3. Hart
4. Grant
5. Nurkic
6. Winslow
7. Payton II
8. Little

I think the top 7 are already NBA players and Little has shown he can play when healthy. Did you mean 6/7 or did you mean some from below:

9. Johnson
10. Watford
11. Eubanks
12. Sharpe
13. Walker
14. Hughes
15.

I think they are a starting SF and backup C from really competing. The SF may be enough to compete, given the variety of backup bugs they have and going small.

I'm not completely sold on either Winslow (durability, size, offense) or Little.
But even if they do work out, for the regular season an 8 man rotation is borderline problematic. Especially given the injury history of those 8. I stand by what I said - to exceed 39 wins, we'd need one more legitimate NBA rotation player, whether it is out the second group you mentioned, or a free agent pickup or trade.

Yup, agreed. If they had a true SF, I think they could be dangerous. Then add a quality big man off the bench and they could give any team a run for their money.