Game 72: Portland vs Utah 6:00pm Root

[The Sebastian Express]

I know many (most?) of us are rooting for ping pong balls, but it's good on a human level that Portland gets some wins here and there even if they don't make the playoffs --- I don't want to see the players feeling completely demoralized.

Some nice things:

Lillard now will qualify for the points leaderboard, and the win may improve his chances of making an All-NBA team. I think he deserves to be in it, but if Portland completely collapses and ends up with 50 losses, some in the media may exclude him from their ballot on that basis.

Sharpe got tons of minutes! This is what I want to see from here on out. Maybe he can make a run at the All-Rookie 2nd team. Seeing what he's able to do in a larger role will be good going forward.

Nurkic and Watford played great. I'm not sure whether Portland may look to move one or both of them in the offseason, but them playing well is good for morale as well as trade value.

I don't think Portland will look to move Watford unless it's like in a deal for Embiid or someone (if Philly flames out, again, I'm not hoping you flameout, Philly fans!) or as a prospect for a star. I think he just has too much interesting potential as a Draymond-lite-lite to move. We've needed a four like him for so long and here he goes.

[Norm2953]

Dropped to 7 in Tankathon

Now that Dame has qualified for the scoring title, let's see when they shut him down for the
season. Team is still 4 wins away from making the play in with 10 games left in the season
at the very least and it seems pointless to be playing him.

[BNM]

After last night's game, it's clear Shaedon is a better fit next to Dame than Anfernee is. We need his length at SG next to Dame, he's already a better defender than Ant and will only get better with experience. Not only did Shaedon have a career high in points (24) and minutes (39:46) last night, he also had a career high in rebounds (9) and steals (4). He was also a team best +28. This is the kind of all around play we need from the SG position.

That means one of two things for Ant: either he's traded, or he comes off the bench.

Of course, I spent the entire off season/preseason lobbying for Josh Hart to start at SG with Ant coming off the bench. We know how that worked out. Ant and Dame are just too similar in size and strengths/weaknesses to start together. They are redundant on offense and get killed on defense. Of all people, Chauncey should be aware of this. In DET, he played next to a 6'6" SG (Rip Hamilton). DET also started a 6'9" SF and a 6'11" PF. I know the game has changed in the last 15 - 20 years, but now, more than ever, length matters at the SF/SG positions.

So, either go all in on Shaedon starting a SG next season with Ant coming off the bench, or bundle Ant with one of our 1st round picks for an upgrade at SF. If we keep Ant, pair him with Thybulle on the second unit - Ant for scoring and Thybulle for defense. That makes both the stating unit (Dame + Shaedon) and the bench (Ant + Thybulle) stronger and better balanced than Dame + Ant starting.

BTW, since Hart was traded he is coming off the bench at SG for the Knicks and excelling. His advanced stats are up across the board. His TS% is a ridiculous .738. His WS/48 has jumped from .098 to .203, his OBPM and DBPM have jumped from -0.8 and +0.7 to +2.4 and +2.5. See what happens when you have a coach who plays a player at his natural position. I'm sick of seeing POR tr0t out an undersized backcourt for over a decade, and tripling down on the subminiature lineup by playing Norm Powell and Josh Hart as their starting SFs.

[BlazersBroncos]

BTW, since Hart was traded he is coming off the bench at SG for the Knicks and excelling. His advanced stats are up across the board. His TS% is a ridiculous .738. His WS/48 has jumped from .098 to .203, his OBPM and DBPM have jumped from -0.8 and +0.7 to +2.4 and +2.5. See what happens when you have a coach who plays a player at his natural position. I'm sick of seeing POR tr0t out an undersized backcourt for over a decade, and tripling down on the subminiature lineup by playing Norm Powell and Josh Hart as their starting SFs.

I concede that playing his natural position definatley helps Josh but the shooting splits between Portland and NYK are not explained by simply having Josh guard SG rather than SF. The guy just stopped shooting here, and when he did it was ugly. He either was on a super long cold streak here (To the point it hurt the team, as he passed up 3's) or is on a hot streak now in NYK.

All in all, I think Hart is just a super high variance shooter from 3. So high in variance that it would actually cause me hesitation to pay him. You can sorta see this through his entire career. People generally talk about streaky shooters in the vein of guys that hit 8 one game and go 1/8 the next, but Josh is a big picture streaky shooter - going 50 games on meh volume at 30% then 30 at 40%. Its a big issue when evaluating his worth.

[BNM]

BTW, since Hart was traded he is coming off the bench at SG for the Knicks and excelling. His advanced stats are up across the board. His TS% is a ridiculous .738. His WS/48 has jumped from .098 to .203, his OBPM and DBPM have jumped from -0.8 and +0.7 to +2.4 and +2.5. See what happens when you have a coach who plays a player at his natural position. I'm sick of seeing POR tr0t out an undersized backcourt for over a decade, and tripling down on the subminiature lineup by playing Norm Powell and Josh Hart as their starting SFs.

I concede that playing his natural position definatley helps Josh but the shooting splits between Portland and NYK are not explained by simply having Josh guard SG rather than SF. The guy just stopped shooting here, and when he did it was ugly. He either was on a super long cold streak here (To the point it hurt the team, as he passed up 3's) or is on a hot streak now in NYK.

All in all, I think Hart is just a super high variance shooter from 3. So high in variance that it would actually cause me hesitation to pay him. You can sorta see this through his entire career. People generally talk about streaky shooters in the vein of guys that hit 8 one game and go 1/8 the next, but Josh is a big picture streaky shooter - going 50 games on meh volume at 30% then 30 at 40%. Its a big issue when evaluating his worth.

I think starting next to Dame, Ant and Grant, Josh was a forgotten man in our offense (Chauncey is horrible at designing a modern offense to match the talent he has). So, Josh focused on defense and rebounding and usually only shot 3's as a last resort (kick out to him as the shot clock was expiring).

In NY, he is playing his natural position and getting shots within the flow of the offense. He has shorter defenders guarding him and has to expend less energy trying to guard bigger, stronger players. Sure, his current 3FG% is not sustainable, but both his percentage and volume were, by far, career lows under Chauncey this year. His volume is about the same in NY, but the quality of his looks is much better.

Bottom line: his offensive production was hurt by playing out of position and not having any real role in POR's offense.

[The Sebastian Express]

I believe Josh explained the reason he stopped shooting so much and the issues with shooting was because it was the system we ran and his role in it, he knew he wasn't suppose to shoot but keep the ball moving. He said he wasn't blaming Portland/Chauncy, but it was just how the system was designed and he wanted to stay within the system.

Obviously a system that encouraged him not to shoot/got him to a point of hesitancy to shoot is not good. And I agree with BNM and felt for a long time he should've been starting at the two or if they weren't going to do that to make him the primary ballhandler/point/two in the second unit.

[Norm2953]

It made a difference in Hart in Portland however in 2023 with 3 ball dominant players in Dame, Ant and
Grant.

Last season when Dame went down, Ant had veteran guys like Hart and Winslow in the lineup with him
and both he and Nurk shined for the two vets and Eleby complimented their games. This season, its
clear Dame/Ant are less of a fit when a third ball dominant player is added to the mix for most of
Hart's shots disappeared and Nurk was unhappy being at best a fourth option. Something to keep in
mind when harping for the #2 guy to team with Dame if Grant is on the roster.