Ayton offensive focal point?

[JasonStern]

Ayton is a solid, above average NBA center but he's overpaid for what he is and will only further be
overpaid in his next contract.

Ayton is only overpaid because Indiana threw a max contract at him and called Phoenix's hand. That isn't going to happen next contract. Will the Blazers still overpay? Probably, given the Grant extension. But it won't be some max level contract that cripples the franchise. And if it is, it's because he earned it, which is also a win for the Blazers.

Phoenix dropped the ball when they did not extend him to a more reasonable deal prior to RFA and let
themselves open to a max contract offer.

Any future Ayton extension would have to start from his expiring contract, which means he'll get overpaid
but if I had to over pay for either Grant or Ayton, I'd pay Ayton for he at least rebounds and seems to be
developing a game with Scoot.

Overpay is all relative when Dallas will likely have to offer Luka his $367/5 extension and these NBA guys
will soon be in Ohtani territory when it comes to money. SA's future extension for Victor is going to massive.

Stop. Luka Dončić is worth $367M. Ayton's next contract will be a $20M-30M/season contract. Just because he made more in the past and failed to live up to the hype does not mean he's guaranteed another max or high level contract. Who exactly is bidding against the Blazers? Indiana did bid against Phoenix, but they had the cap space and Ayton was younger. I really don't see teams lining up to throw $300M or whatever insane contract you think he'll land.

[Wizenheimer]

Stop. Luka Dončić is worth $367M. Ayton's next contract will be a $20M-30M/season contract. Just because he made more in the past and failed to live up to the hype does not mean he's guaranteed another max or high level contract. Who exactly is bidding against the Blazers? Indiana did bid against Phoenix, but they had the cap space and Ayton was younger. I really don't see teams lining up to throw $300M or whatever insane contract you think he'll land.

the new Media deals will be kicking in. And if you assume a 10% increase in the cap each year, by the time Ayton will be UFA, the cap would be over 170M, and according to BBREF:

26 teams will have 55M in cap-space; 22 teams will have 90M in cap-space; 17 teams will have over 100M in space

obviously, with rookie extensions and free agent signings those numbers could change quite a bit. But with those new media deals coming online it's a safe bet several teams will have major cap-space in July 2026. So Ayton could get a lot more than you claim

I agree that he won't. But that's not because of any limits in league-wide cap-space. It's because most teams will recognize that Ayton does NOT have the kind of impact that alters a team's trajectory. He's a supporting player, at best, and not worth a 30M/year deal when that's 20% of the cap. And if Portland offers him 20-25M/year, at most, as they should, he's the kind of player that will walk and actually save Portland from themselves

[HoopsFanAZ]

Ayton is a solid, above average NBA center but he's overpaid for what he is and will only further be
overpaid in his next contract.

Ayton is only overpaid because Indiana threw a max contract at him and called Phoenix's hand. That isn't going to happen next contract. Will the Blazers still overpay? Probably, given the Grant extension. But it won't be some max level contract that cripples the franchise. And if it is, it's because he earned it, which is also a win for the Blazers.

A reasonable explanation here in AZ at the time was that (1) Ayton thought he deserved max years and dollars. Phoenix wasn’t going to do so because of his limitations on how he gets points and doesn’t get free throws, as well as some on and off play. (2) Additionally, at that time, they were positioning for a trade bringing in a young player who was making max dollars in a 2nd contract with max years — which would not have been allowed by rule — having only 1 per team if Ayton got what he wanted. (3) Indiana ponied up with one less year, max but fewer dollars, and smaller yearly raises. (4) Phoenix preserved the asset at a lower cost and maintained trade flexibility.

That’s the way I heard it.

[Norm2953]

Ayton is only overpaid because Indiana threw a max contract at him and called Phoenix's hand. That isn't going to happen next contract. Will the Blazers still overpay? Probably, given the Grant extension. But it won't be some max level contract that cripples the franchise. And if it is, it's because he earned it, which is also a win for the Blazers.

Phoenix dropped the ball when they did not extend him to a more reasonable deal prior to RFA and let
themselves open to a max contract offer.

Any future Ayton extension would have to start from his expiring contract, which means he'll get overpaid
but if I had to over pay for either Grant or Ayton, I'd pay Ayton for he at least rebounds and seems to be
developing a game with Scoot.

Overpay is all relative when Dallas will likely have to offer Luka his $367/5 extension and these NBA guys
will soon be in Ohtani territory when it comes to money. SA's future extension for Victor is going to massive.

Stop. Luka Dončić is worth $367M. Ayton's next contract will be a $20M-30M/season contract. Just because he made more in the past and failed to live up to the hype does not mean he's guaranteed another max or high level contract. Who exactly is bidding against the Blazers? Indiana did bid against Phoenix, but they had the cap space and Ayton was younger. I really don't see teams lining up to throw $300M or whatever insane contract you think he'll land.

Is any player worth $367 million? That's Ohtani money for five seasons without any money being deferred.

Imagine how much Simons will be asking for in addition to Ayton. He's eligible to sign for a $125 million/3 deal

If what Wiz says is correct, the smart play might be extend Ayton this summer, if they can get him to sign for
much closer to what he's making in 2024.

[JasonStern]

Stop. Luka Dončić is worth $367M. Ayton's next contract will be a $20M-30M/season contract. Just because he made more in the past and failed to live up to the hype does not mean he's guaranteed another max or high level contract. Who exactly is bidding against the Blazers? Indiana did bid against Phoenix, but they had the cap space and Ayton was younger. I really don't see teams lining up to throw $300M or whatever insane contract you think he'll land.

the new Media deals will be kicking in. And if you assume a 10% increase in the cap each year, by the time Ayton will be UFA, the cap would be over 170M, and according to BBREF:

26 teams will have 55M in cap-space; 22 teams will have 90M in cap-space; 17 teams will have over 100M in space

obviously, with rookie extensions and free agent signings those numbers could change quite a bit. But with those new media deals coming online it's a safe bet several teams will have major cap-space in July 2026. So Ayton could get a lot more than you claim

I agree that he won't. But that's not because of any limits in league-wide cap-space. It's because most teams will recognize that Ayton does NOT have the kind of impact that alters a team's trajectory. He's a supporting player, at best, and not worth a 30M/year deal when that's 20% of the cap. And if Portland offers him 20-25M/year, at most, as they should, he's the kind of player that will walk and actually save Portland from themselves

If Neil Olshey gets another GM job, sure. All bets are off. But I can't see any team paying more than 15-20% of the cap on Ayton. And I say that as someone who actually supports Ayton and would be perfectly fine paying 15-20% of the cap to retain him.

Is any player worth $367 million?

Yes. Jokić and Luka. You could argue SGA, Giannis, and if you're betting for the future, Edwards. It's a star driven league.

[Wizenheimer]

If Neil Olshey gets another GM job, sure. All bets are off. But I can't see any team paying more than 15-20% of the cap on Ayton. And I say that as someone who actually supports Ayton and would be perfectly fine paying 15-20% of the cap to retain him.

you need to review the math

the NBA has already projected max salary cap increases starting in 2025 (when the new media deals start). The smoothing provision in the new CBA restricts the increases to 10%

so, based upon next season's 141M cap, in the 2025-26 season the cap will be in the 155-156M range. In 2026-2027, the cap would be 170-172M. That would mean, if Ayton got 20% of the cap as his base salary, a 5 year deal would be 39.6M/year. A 4 year deal would be 38M/year. Those are the numbers if the projections are correct

to keep Ayton at 20M/year or less, the Blazers would need to pay him 10-11% of the cap. They just paid Grant 21% of the cap. Do you really believe they'll pay Ayton 10%, or that he'sd agree to than instead of walk? When was the last time the Blazers paid market value for one of their role players. They always overpay...by way too much

I really want Ayton traded to keep Portland from bidding against themselves for another of their own low-impact, flat-trajectory role players. That's how they ended up barely dodging the luxury tax for a 21 win team, and will likely be 4-7M over the tax line the night after the draft...and could still be a 21 win team

[JasonStern]

you need to review the math

No. It's the weekend. You need to review beer.

But back to the topic on hand, Ayton on a $20-30M contract is perfectly reasonable. If someone really wants to pay him a max contract, I feel bad for their franchise hiring Neil Olshey. But at least Ayton will get more burn than Festus Ezili.

Unless you're an elite center with a diverse offensive skillset (Jokic, Embiid), the game has moved away from traditional bigs. I really don't think the market for Ayton is as big as everyone makes it out to be, which is the main reason why the Blazers were able to acquire him for effectively Nurkić and Little.

[Wizenheimer]

you need to review the math

No. It's the weekend. You need to review beer.

But back to the topic on hand, Ayton on a $20-30M contract is perfectly reasonable. If someone really wants to pay him a max contract, I feel bad for their franchise hiring Neil Olshey. But at least Ayton will get more burn than Festus Ezili.

Unless you're an elite center with a diverse offensive skillset (Jokic, Embiid), the game has moved away from traditional bigs. I really don't think the market for Ayton is as big as everyone makes it out to be, which is the main reason why the Blazers were able to acquire him for effectively Nurkić and Little.

we disagree. I don't think 30M is reasonable for a C with Ayton's flaws and limitations. 20M? OK, but why? He's a boring high usage C who doesn't pass, doesn't draw fouls, doesn't hit three's and stretch the floor, and doesn't set good screens. He clogs the lane looking for teammates to create his shot opportunities. He doesn't work well with Scoot. He's not a rim protector or shot blocker and he doesn't have the mobility to switch onto perimeter players with any sustained success. A drop-coverage C

on Pick-n-Roll, Roll Man plays he's only in the 41st percentile; in post-up, he's only in the 25th percentile (Duop Reath was in the 75th percentile); he's in the 7th percentile in isolation; the 30th percentile in spot-up. The only play type he's good at was in putbacks...the 92nd percentile. But both Grant and Sharpe were better and Badji was even

I say again: he's empty calories and it doesn't matter if he's making 10M or 40M...still low-impact/flat-trajectory at any price

[PDXKnight]

Ayton would get his points and Portland would lose, lose, and lose some more

he's not all-star talent and a team that features non-all-star talent as the #1 option is lottery bound. Especially when that talent is not a wing, doesn't pass well at all, and doesn't get to the FT line. Ayton is not Embiid

in the West:

Jokic
AD
Gobert
Kat
Sabonis
Wemby
Holmgren

he's in the running for 8th best center, in one conference. And he'd be in a group with Sengun, Valunciunas, Nurkic, Gafford, Lively, Zubac.. Some of those guys are better than Ayton, when both ends of the floor are considered

I think this is pretty accurate. He's good not great. Solid stats guy but not gonna be a major difference maker and definitely not a true number 1 option unless he's On a high lotto team. He can put up points but they feel like meaningless stats quite often. His real world impact on defense is pretty minimal as well.

I could see someone taking a flyer on ayton and I could also see portland keeping him for 2 more Years because theres nothing to lose really. Either way I hope portland is looking at replacement options in the long run because to me he's not the answer if he wants anything close to what he's making on his next contract

[BlazersBroncos]

you need to review the math

No. It's the weekend. You need to review beer.

But back to the topic on hand, Ayton on a $20-30M contract is perfectly reasonable. If someone really wants to pay him a max contract, I feel bad for their franchise hiring Neil Olshey. But at least Ayton will get more burn than Festus Ezili.

Unless you're an elite center with a diverse offensive skillset (Jokic, Embiid), the game has moved away from traditional bigs. I really don't think the market for Ayton is as big as everyone makes it out to be, which is the main reason why the Blazers were able to acquire him for effectively Nurkić and Little.

we disagree. I don't think 30M is reasonable for a C with Ayton's flaws and limitations. 20M? OK, but why? He's a boring high usage C who doesn't pass, doesn't draw fouls, doesn't hit three's and stretch the floor, and doesn't set good screens. He clogs the lane looking for teammates to create his shot opportunities. He doesn't work well with Scoot. He's not a rim protector or shot blocker and he doesn't have the mobility to switch onto perimeter players with any sustained success. A drop-coverage C

on Pick-n-Roll, Roll Man plays he's only in the 41st percentile; in post-up, he's only in the 25th percentile (Duop Reath was in the 75th percentile); he's in the 7th percentile in isolation; the 30th percentile in spot-up. The only play type he's good at was in putbacks...the 92nd percentile. But both Grant and Sharpe were better and Badji was even

I say again: he's empty calories and it doesn't matter if he's making 10M or 40M...still low-impact/flat-trajectory at any price

Preach.

Ayton should have no future with this team.

[Norm2953]

There are good reasons why Portland will have worked 5 guys who play center this off season prior
to the draft

Clingan, Edey, Missi, Ware and Bona

[JasonStern]

you need to review the math

No. It's the weekend. You need to review beer.

But back to the topic on hand, Ayton on a $20-30M contract is perfectly reasonable. If someone really wants to pay him a max contract, I feel bad for their franchise hiring Neil Olshey. But at least Ayton will get more burn than Festus Ezili.

Unless you're an elite center with a diverse offensive skillset (Jokic, Embiid), the game has moved away from traditional bigs. I really don't think the market for Ayton is as big as everyone makes it out to be, which is the main reason why the Blazers were able to acquire him for effectively Nurkić and Little.

we disagree. I don't think 30M is reasonable for a C with Ayton's flaws and limitations. 20M? OK, but why? He's a boring high usage C who doesn't pass, doesn't draw fouls, doesn't hit three's and stretch the floor, and doesn't set good screens. He clogs the lane looking for teammates to create his shot opportunities. He doesn't work well with Scoot. He's not a rim protector or shot blocker and he doesn't have the mobility to switch onto perimeter players with any sustained success. A drop-coverage C

on Pick-n-Roll, Roll Man plays he's only in the 41st percentile; in post-up, he's only in the 25th percentile (Duop Reath was in the 75th percentile); he's in the 7th percentile in isolation; the 30th percentile in spot-up. The only play type he's good at was in putbacks...the 92nd percentile. But both Grant and Sharpe were better and Badji was even

I say again: he's empty calories and it doesn't matter if he's making 10M or 40M...still low-impact/flat-trajectory at any price

Ayton is also a consistent 16ppg/10rpg guy. As great for Jody Allen saving $20-30M by only playing four starters, that's not conductive of winning basketball. And while you can pinpoint individual stats to say he sucks, he has proven himself to be a capable NBA starting center. And at 25 years old, he fits the rebuild timeline.

I don't even know why I'm defending Ayton here. My whole point was that he's not getting a max contract when his current contract expires. Thus the "OMG how are we going to afford to keep Ayton?" posts weren't valid concerns. The only way someone maxes him out on his next contract is if he addresses all of the weaknesses in his game, at which point he'd be an Embiid tier player. The horrors of having that on the roster.

[JasonStern]

There are good reasons why Portland will have worked 5 guys who play center this off season prior
to the draft

Clingan, Edey, Missi, Ware and Bona

I wouldn't read into that too much. This year's draft is big heavy. Next year's draft is guard heavy. If you really believe the Blazers sucked all year just to try to get a pick specifically to replace Ayton versus working out players projected in the 7 and 14 pick range, shopping free agency, etc., DM me and I will mail you a free tinfoil hat.

[Norm2953]

There are good reasons why Portland will have worked 5 guys who play center this off season prior
to the draft

Clingan, Edey, Missi, Ware and Bona

I wouldn't read into that too much. This year's draft is big heavy. Next year's draft is guard heavy. If you really believe the Blazers sucked all year just to try to get a pick specifically to replace Ayton versus working out players projected in the 7 and 14 pick range, shopping free agency, etc., DM me and I will mail you a free tinfoil hat.

Portland sucked all year because the team literally sucked but they were hoping for another top 3 pick
after the injuries hit.

The player they really wanted was Sarr, who the Blazers top brass all went to Australia to see play in person.

Ayton is a guy who will hold down the fort for a team they hoped would be competitive for they hoped
Scoot would hit the ground running and Sharpe in his soph year would blossom. They picked up Robert
Williams whom they hoped would add needed muscle to the front court with Ayton and Grant. Team
will still need to add muscle if Williams is unable to play which is why there is interest in Clingan

Actually next years draft will have Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey and the big headed to Duke towards the
top, along with another French player at the top.

[Butter]

There are several project centers in this draft that the Blazers could target at 14. Assuming they do not take Clingan, Ware, Missi will be available at 14. If not, there are some interesting deep projects that could drop to the 2nd.



Ayton isn't going anywhere, but bringing in a future center behind him is a smart play.

[zzaj]

One of the main issues I see with last year is that the team didn’t identify HOW they want to play. Injuries played a big part in that, coaching played a big part in that and the roster had some part in that, too…

It’s very hard to draft and project a position (like Center) without a real plan in place for how you want the system to work around that position…

[Norm2953]

That is correct but its interesting to note ESPN lists Edey as the best pick and roll finisher in this draft.

At 7-5 300 lbs, they note he sets wide, bruising screens, is an offensive force who catches the ball with
a near 8 foot wingspan

He is what he is which is a guy who while he can shoot from some distance, why would anyone want
a 300 lb guy shooting from 25 feet. Not the defender or shot blocker Clingan will be.

I'd love to get him at 14 and would love to use the pick at 7 to pick BPA, hopefully at a position where
there is need. I could live with picking him at 7

[BlazersBroncos]

That is correct but its interesting to note ESPN lists Edey as the best pick and roll finisher in this draft.

At 7-5 300 lbs, they note he sets wide, bruising screens, is an offensive force who catches the ball with
a near 8 foot wingspan

He is what he is which is a guy who while he can shoot from some distance, why would anyone want
a 300 lb guy shooting from 25 feet. Not the defender or shot blocker Clingan will be.

I'd love to get him at 14 and would love to use the pick at 7 to pick BPA, hopefully at a position where
there is need. I could live with picking him at 7

Screens are a reason I want Edey at 14.

Think it may be the most underrated trait in the league when evaluating bigs. A elite screener creates constant mismatches.

Watching Ayton screen vs Nurkic screen was infuriating.

[Norm2953]

Edey is literally my favorite player at 14 for its the perfect spot for a player who will score
some points against second string opposition and knock some guys around.

If we could get a Knecht, Castle, Salaun, Holland or perhaps Buzelis at 7, it will be a solid draft.

Whoever they get at 34, 40 or perhaps in a trade up for a late first round pick, will just be gravy.

[Wizenheimer]

I don't want the Blazers to 'waste' a pick on either Clingan or Edey. That said, I much rather Portland draft Edey at 14 than Clingan at 7. I'd prefer that Portland swung for the fences with both picks and gambled on wings, but the Blazers haven't done many things I like lately. Actually, with 3 or 4 exceptions, they haven't done much I like since 2012