Mike Schmitz - Draft Guru

[ebott]

I hated the Scoot pick and still do.

I like Sharpe and Clingan, though I wanted Eason and Edey.

Hate is a strong word for someone who could and likely will be really special.

Hm

I don’t hate him but I do hate drafting him.

Who would you have drafted instead?

[JRoy]

I would traded the pick to ORL for Black a 25 FRP and a couple SRP.

I don’t think much of Scoot.

[Walton1one]

I don't recall a deal with ORL was a possibility,

Scoot went #3, Black #6, both roughly the same age. Black played limited minutes (16.9/g), Scoot played (28.5m).

We will see what happens over the next few years, but I don't think there is any guarantee that Black will be a better player than Scoot.

[JRoy]

I don't recall a deal with ORL was a possibility,

Scoot went #3, Black #6, both roughly the same age. Black played limited minutes (16.9/g), Scoot played (28.5m).

We will see what happens over the next few years, but I don't think there is any guarantee that Black will be a better player than Scoot.

No guarantee, but I like his game a lot more.

[BlazersBroncos]

In retrospect one of the Thompson brothers seems like the right pick IMO.

I liked Black more than both Thompsons during draft time but the way their athleticism has translated to the NBA is pretty enticing. Wasnt convinced either were as elite athletically as they flashed as rookies. Both look like Gerald Wallace level athletes - and I dont use that comparison lightly.

[zzaj]

In retrospect one of the Thompson brothers seems like the right pick IMO.

I liked Black more than both Thompsons during draft time but the way their athleticism has translated to the NBA is pretty enticing. Wasnt convinced either were as elite athletically as they flashed as rookies. Both look like Gerald Wallace level athletes - and I dont use that comparison lightly.

IMHO, it's still too early to tell with that class. I really liked the Thompsons and loved Black. I think all 3 will become good players in the right situations. Black I think has the highest ceiling because of his passing gravity.

I was less high on Scoot, but as we all know it takes a long time with PGs. I still think he can be the starting PG on a good team.

[ebott]

I would traded the pick to ORL for Black a 25 FRP and a couple SRP.

I don’t think much of Scoot.

I don't think trades that might not have been possible are a valid part of this thought experiment. The goal of this thread is to talk **** about Mike Schmitz. What my theory presupposes is that its hard to do because no one taken behind Scoot, Shaedon or Klingan is all that good.

[JRoy]

I would traded the pick to ORL for Black a 25 FRP and a couple SRP.

I don’t think much of Scoot.

I don't think trades that might not have been possible are a valid part of this thought experiment. The goal of this thread is to talk **** about Mike Schmitz. What my theory presupposes is that its hard to do because no one taken behind Scoot, Shaedon or Klingan is all that good.

We will have to agree to disagree.

[BlazersBroncos]

Jalen Williams was taken after Shadeon Sharpe and I would say the chances that Sharpe ends up better than him are slim to none.

I would say clearly Jalen would have been a better pick - with arguments for Eason and probably Nembhard if the playoffs are any indication. Those 3 are really the only ones I would even consider above Sharpe. And only Williams is a clear cut decision.

I am pretty OK with the high picks we have made. Jalen has turned out better than really anyone would have ever expected, so I wont fault our FO for missing on him. Scoot was a concensus #3 so I cant really argue with him - albeit I am no longer that convinced he will be great, or even above replacement level. Clingan its just too early - but I really liked what he flashed in SL.

I have more issue with us not finding ways to get guys that fell like Eason, Kessler, Whitmore and in the last draft Furphy. But that is easier said than done and its said with a good amount of hindsight.

Really the only pick I have any issue with is Kris - who was a pick made for a win-now team led by Dame. Also pretty unhappy we punted both 2024 SRP - as many know I was and remain very high on Furphy.

[Walton1one]

Well, POR could have drafted Furphy @ #34, but opted to sell that pick for (3) 2nd's, which given the relatively poor # of picks they have moving forward, I can't fault them for that much.

Besides, they could have made up for that @ #40, by selecting some other intriguing wing players still on the board then, namely: Bobi Klintman (#37), Jaylen Wells (#39), Pelle Larrson (#44), Cam Christie (#46), Antonio Reeves (#47), Anton Watson (#54) to name a few.

In 2023, there were some more intriguing prospects still on the board when POR took Murray, however they did take Rupert @ #43 and traded for Camara (drafted @ #52), both of whom have shown more promise than Murray. Flip Camara & Murray and would anyone be complaining?

In 2022, I agree, other than J.Williams so far, is there any other player who has established themselves as clearly above Sharpe? Also, don't forget, OKC missed on the pick before (Dieng, which they traded for). However, I do think this year is a critical year for Sharpe, need to see some real growth from him as a player.

[ebott]

Jalen Williams was taken after Shadeon Sharpe and I would say the chances that Sharpe ends up better than him are slim to none.

Perfect. I honestly don't really pay attention to other teams players after the draft. This is all the evidence I need to say Mike Shmidt sucks.

[JasonStern]

Jalen Williams was taken after Shadeon Sharpe and I would say the chances that Sharpe ends up better than him are slim to none.

This forum during the tank job, summarized in 3 lines:

"TRADE EVERYONE FOR PICKS! GAMBLE ON A SUPER-STAR!"
The Blazers take the most athletic player in the draft.
"WHY DID YOU PICK SHARPE WHEN A DIFFERENT PLAYER LOOKS TO BE BETTER 2 SEASONS IN???"

[m0ng0]

Jalen Williams was taken after Shadeon Sharpe and I would say the chances that Sharpe ends up better than him are slim to none.

This forum during the tank job, summarized in 3 lines:

"TRADE EVERYONE FOR PICKS! GAMBLE ON A SUPER-STAR!"
The Blazers take the most athletic player in the draft.
"WHY DID YOU PICK SHARPE WHEN A DIFFERENT PLAYER LOOKS TO BE BETTER 2 SEASONS IN???"

Don't forget management and ownership sucks, the coach sucks, the players suck, and the roots deal sucks, the uniforms suck...what else? The building sucks, the announcement team sucks, the radio signal is scratchy, never made a good draft pick EVER.

[BlazersBroncos]

Jalen Williams was taken after Shadeon Sharpe and I would say the chances that Sharpe ends up better than him are slim to none.

Perfect. I honestly don't really pay attention to other teams players after the draft. This is all the evidence I need to say Mike Shmidt sucks.

If you read my whole post I make it clear that I have no qualms with ‘missing’ on Jalen as he has shown out in a way that no one expected.

At the same time I also think it’s reasonable to make the statement that Jalen is almost certainly going to end up a better player than Sharpe. The gap right now is so large between the 2. It’s a statement made not with spite but simply a statement of realistic expectation.

[JRoy]

I don’t like stuff that sucks.

[Wizenheimer]

IMHO, it's still too early to tell with that class. I really liked the Thompsons and loved Black. I think all 3 will become good players in the right situations. Black I think has the highest ceiling because of his passing gravity.

I was less high on Scoot, but as we all know it takes a long time with PGs. I still think he can be the starting PG on a good team.

I just think in the modern NBA there is a ceiling for players who can't shoot like Amen Thompson. Obviously, Giannis is an exception but he's a unicorn

I'd think Amen's ceiling would be somewhere between a rich man's Justice Winslow and a poor man's Ron Artest. Maybe he can break thru that ceiling but unless he miraculously develops a perimeter shot, I'm skeptical. I suppose Ben Simmons (before the mental breakdown) could be a projection but there is a difference between 6'11 and 6'7

[zzaj]

IMHO, it's still too early to tell with that class. I really liked the Thompsons and loved Black. I think all 3 will become good players in the right situations. Black I think has the highest ceiling because of his passing gravity.

I was less high on Scoot, but as we all know it takes a long time with PGs. I still think he can be the starting PG on a good team.

I just think in the modern NBA there is a ceiling for players who can't shoot like Amen Thompson. Obviously, Giannis is an exception but he's a unicorn

I'd think Amen's ceiling would be somewhere between a rich man's Justice Winslow and a poor man's Ron Artest. Maybe he can break thru that ceiling but unless he miraculously develops a perimeter shot, I'm skeptical. I suppose Ben Simmons (before the mental breakdown) could be a projection but there is a difference between 6'11 and 6'7

Agreed 100%.

In the modern NBA shooting unlocks everything. You basically have to be elite at everything else in order to be a minutes player on a winning team as a non-shooter.

I actually liked Amen's brother more than I like Amen (still do). Ausar has a little more "cerebral" to his game, which I think will benefit him as a journeyman player. I don't think either will ever make an ASG.

Since you brought up Simmons, Black reminds me of him quite a bit. Obviously he doesn't quite have the size, but when I did my deep-dive on Black during that draft I was blown away by the defense, passing gravity, and amazing game processing--all of those things were indeed strengths of pre-issues Simmons. It wouldn't surprise me if Black ends up with an Iguodala lite, type of career.

[JRoy]

IMHO, it's still too early to tell with that class. I really liked the Thompsons and loved Black. I think all 3 will become good players in the right situations. Black I think has the highest ceiling because of his passing gravity.

I was less high on Scoot, but as we all know it takes a long time with PGs. I still think he can be the starting PG on a good team.

I just think in the modern NBA there is a ceiling for players who can't shoot like Amen Thompson. Obviously, Giannis is an exception but he's a unicorn

I'd think Amen's ceiling would be somewhere between a rich man's Justice Winslow and a poor man's Ron Artest. Maybe he can break thru that ceiling but unless he miraculously develops a perimeter shot, I'm skeptical. I suppose Ben Simmons (before the mental breakdown) could be a projection but there is a difference between 6'11 and 6'7

Agreed 100%.

In the modern NBA shooting unlocks everything. You basically have to be elite at everything else in order to be a minutes player on a winning team as a non-shooter.

I actually liked Amen's brother more than I like Amen (still do). Ausar has a little more "cerebral" to his game, which I think will benefit him as a journeyman player. I don't think either will ever make an ASG.

Since you brought up Simmons, Black reminds me of him quite a bit. Obviously he doesn't quite have the size, but when I did my deep-dive on Black during that draft I was blown away by the defense, passing gravity, and amazing game processing--all of those things were indeed strengths of pre-issues Simmons. It wouldn't surprise me if Black ends up with an Iguodala lite, type of career.

That’s what I was hoping for. Don’t think he has quite the ceiling that Iggy did but maybe the same kind of player.

[HoopsFanAZ]

1. Clingan, Sharpe, Scoot are the hope.
2. Draft and draft eval of Walker, Camara, Rupert, Murray for role players (draft position).
3. I did not like trading 34 as there was value there this year.

(Cronin) Getting a trade done to get both Salaun and Cody Williams? My preference. BUT getting Clingan and Deni, instead? Pretty good.

[zzaj]

1. Clingan, Sharpe, Scoot are the hope.
2. Draft and draft eval of Walker, Camara, Rupert, Murray for role players (draft position).
3. I did not like trading 34 as there was value there this year.

(Cronin) Getting a trade done to get both Salaun and Cody Williams? My preference. BUT getting Clingan and Deni, instead? Pretty good.

I'll take it a step further and say that IMO,
Scoot
Sharpe
Deni
Clingan
2025 draft pick

is the "core" for the next 5 years. Now, depending on how Sharpe and Scoot look next year, I could see a world where Schmitz and Cronin capitulate toward a Dylan Harper or Traore, or Edgecombe...but it's impossible to know that currently.

A little OT, but if I was going to pick my 1st and 2nd Rookie teams right now, here's what my 1st would look like:
Edey
Ware
Da Silva
Castle
Carrington

and 2nd:
Clingan
Risarcher
Matas
Jaylon Tyson
Sheppard or Dillingham, again depends on who gets more PT.

These are basically all based on who'll get minutes and whomever will put up scoring/rebound numbers, since efficiency is hardly ever taken into account in these rookie teams.