Pre Trade Deadline: Grading Joe Cronin

[Blazinaway]

On results, it's been a disaster. Middling return for Lillard, paying a high price for Deni (who is great but may well be gone by the time his play would even make a difference for a good Blazers team), zero blue chip draftees, and shepherding a franchise that looks no better off than it was when the rebuild began.

I agree with your sentiments. I especially agree with the notion that Avdija is the kind of player you add to a playoff team, but it's kind of a waste adding him to a team as bad as the Blazers. He's an entertaining player so he gets a lot of praise from Blazer fans desperately searching to a positive.

and no matter how many times people say it was a great trade, the reality is it could be a high price paid; and maybe too high. That 2029 first could be a 5th pick in a loaded draft

not only that, the Blazers will have to ship their 2028 second, that 2029 first, and their 2030 second to Washington. That's the remaining balance of that trade. And guess what folks: Avdija could walk away as a free agent in 2028. In other words, the Blazers could be shipping out two second's and a first AFTER Avdija signs with another team. Judging this a good trade before we know all those future outcomes is way premature

Blazers also might have the option of trading Deni to a team like OKC where he would be a perfect fit/finishing piece to a team that has a boat load of draft picks and a couple young guys who aren't seeing much time to develop. My bet is he'd garner a better return than what we paid for him, just my take

[Wizenheimer]

I gave Cronin a C- but thinking about it I should have given him a D because he is continuing the Olshey tradition of straddling every fence in sight

[Wizenheimer]

Spoiler:

On results, it's been a disaster. Middling return for Lillard, paying a high price for Deni (who is great but may well be gone by the time his play would even make a difference for a good Blazers team), zero blue chip draftees, and shepherding a franchise that looks no better off than it was when the rebuild began.

I agree with your sentiments. I especially agree with the notion that Avdija is the kind of player you add to a playoff team, but it's kind of a waste adding him to a team as bad as the Blazers. He's an entertaining player so he gets a lot of praise from Blazer fans desperately searching to a positive.

and no matter how many times people say it was a great trade, the reality is it could be a high price paid; and maybe too high. That 2029 first could be a 5th pick in a loaded draft

not only that, the Blazers will have to ship their 2028 second, that 2029 first, and their 2030 second to Washington. That's the remaining balance of that trade. And guess what folks: Avdija could walk away as a free agent in 2028. In other words, the Blazers could be shipping out two second's and a first AFTER Avdija signs with another team. Judging this a good trade before we know all those future outcomes is way premature

Blazers also might have the option of trading Deni to a team like OKC where he would be a perfect fit/finishing piece to a team that has a boat load of draft picks and a couple young guys who aren't seeing much time to develop. My bet is he'd garner a better return than what we paid for him, just my take

he re-signed Simons; re-signed Grant; matched the offer sheet to Thybulle; traded for Ayton & Timelord. All those players are still Blazers after two off-seasons amd quite possibly, two trade deadlines. And he spent 4 draft picks on Avdija. Nothing in Cronin's history suggests he'd be willing to move Avdija unless Avdija demanded to be traded

don't get me wrong, I like Avdija as a player; quite a bit. I just question the price paid and the timing

[Butter]

One of the Blazers Bloggers suggested that Cronin prioritized receiving established players over draft picks.

For example, allegedly, Cronin specifically wanted Timelord versus additional picks.

This is where I have concerns. Trading for established players is great, when the franchise is ready to push for the play offs. But right now, this strategy is keeping the Blazers on the mediocre treadmill.

Winning just enough games to keep them out of a top pick, but not enough talent to win playoff series.

[JasonStern]

Easy C.
He inherited Olshey's mess and a change in ownership. Not a great situation to be in.
The Covington and Powell trade was a total rip-off. But, if the Blazers were set on a rebuild, then helping Balmer's team out makes some ownership level sense.
The CJ trade was fine. But immediately trading a solid young player in NAW when you're starting a youth movement was dumb.
Sharpe was a steal. But I'll save everyone a Jason ramble about how his ceiling is Vince Carter and his floor is Darius Miles, and Miles was a good, albeit flawed) player.
Re-signing Nurkić didn't really make sense given the Dame situation, but it's understandable versus losing an asset. And probably an attempt to convince Dame to stay.
GP2 was a train wreck signing that Golden State fortunately bailed us out of.
Haters gonna hate, but retaining Simons on a reasonable contract was a no-brainer.
Hart was awesome and I still a fan, but I get him not wanting to stay in Portland for a rebuild. Thybulle was a decent return, but taking on Cam Reddish- I'll spare everyone Jason rambling about just how bad of an NBA player he is/was?
Loved the Rupert pick. High bust potential, but we're not talking lottery. If he does pan out, he's the rare unicorn 3 and D wing the league covets right now. If not, he was the 43rd pick.
Scoot at 3 was the consensus no-brainer. Outside of Wembanyama, there wasn't any real sure-fire studs in that draft. I warned of Ricky Rubio vibes. And, that seems to playing out. Dominate against inferior competition, especially in lesser leagues, and get smoked by better. More concerning is the visible lack of development during his tenure despite the Cronin talking point that a reason for keeping Billups being that he is point guard who can develop point guards.
Retaining Thybulle on his current contract was solid.
Retaining Grant on his contract is nonsensical given the imminent rebuild.
The Dame/Nurk trade was solid. I mean, failing to retain him is a knock on Cronin. But, the return was solid given the gun to your head, trade me to Miami narrative being floated. Ayton is obviously mediocre and vastly overpaid. And Suns fans were right laughing their asses off that we took on his contract. But, always a chance that a player valued as a #1 pick can turn things around in a better situation. Like most, I view it as the Camara trade. The Dame for Holiday for Brogdon/Timelord was surprisingly brilliant. Especially when the pick returned ended up in sniping Deni Avdija.
Clingan looks promising, but not special. The type of player good teams need, but aren't going to propel them into contention.
So, overall we have a team years into a rebuild with some young starter tier role players, but no alpha #1 guy. The Grant extension screws the entire salary cap up. I would trade him for expirings. No picks of sweetener needed. Do that, and after next season, the Blazers are off the hook for Ayton and Simons contracts. They could still potentially be retained, but likely at a lower value. Or, you have max space and the younger players taking form. You'll also get two more lotto picks that you hope pan out.
That's the obvious way moving forward, but I am sure something will come around to mess this idea up. Which likely could be made by Cronin, especially if the Vulcans stop turning a profit on a bad for several years Blazers team. And I would not be the slightest bit surprised if the Blazers end up moving to Seattle or Vegas once the Mota Center lease is up. Likewise, I can see being mediocre for years and staying in Portland if they turn a profit. What I haven't seen is any indication that this current ownership and managerial regime is capable of creating a contending level team. And I hope that I am wrong.

[Walton1one]

I gave him a D, flirted with a C, and after reading an article from way back in 2012, and all the praise they gave to him about being a "capologist", I think D is acurrate.

What did that article say?
https://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/2012/04/joe_cronin_self-made_nba_capologist_helps_put_blaz.html

Interim general manager Chad Buchanan and other members of the Trail Blazers' management team rave about Cronin's under-the-radar contributions to the organization and they regularly brag that he knows the CBA like the back of his hand. He's so in tune with the ins and outs of NBA salaries, they say, that he can spout off the top of his head contract details of every player in the NBA -- a list that stretches more than 400 players long.

Buchanan and president Larry Miller have taken to saying the Blazers are poised for a "reloading" project rather than a "rebuilding" project. And while it might seem as if they backed into this situation, the truth is they've been working behind the scenes for more than a year to lay the foundation to have this flexibility.

And the architect behind it all is Cronin, a 6-foot-6, former college role player and self-made NBA "capologist" who has guided the inexperienced Blazers front office through the financial details of the revamped CBA.

"There have been many times where I have thought, "Where would we be without him,'" Buchanan said of Cronin. "Because he just has such a strong grasp of the salary cap and the rules involving payroll. Any question involving the CBA, a trade or roster move or a particular salary, he knows it off the top of his head. He understands, basically, every single contract in the league, from the value of it to how it's structured."

Over the years, Cronin has studied the CBA weekly -- sometimes daily -- to become an expert. A day doesn't go by in which he doesn't study the salaries of every player and every team in the NBA.

How a "capologist" could have misjudged the effects of the new CBA and signed Grant to that ridiculous contract (an F), overpaid for Simons (D) is a mystery

Cronin’s biggest trade\s of Dame and then later Avdija? Here is the ledger on that:

Lillard, Nurkic, Little, Johnson, POR 24' 1st (#14), POR 28'/30' 2nd = Ayton, Avdija, Williams III, Camara, 2029 FRP, 2028 and 2030 FRP swaps.

Little is out of the league (PHX took the hit on the renting years of his 4yr deal)

Keon Johnson is an end of bench\back end player

Nurkic, whom Cronin overpaid, just got demoted to the bench by PHX

Lillard, already showing some signs of aging and still has (2) years left @ $54\$58.5mil

Avdija, has proven to be a nice piece, but the appropriate question is if he made this move too soon, as the team is not good enough for him to be that excellent complementary addition. Giving up (1), possibly (2) lottery picks + (2) 2nd's for a player who will be tricky to re-sign when his contract is up, which is right before the pick (28') conveys seems like an unneeded risk

Camara was a nice addition to the MIL\PHX\POR trade, however I question POR "desire" for him, given that they had MULTIPLE opportunities to draft him (Murray\Rupert) yet passed. Strategy? Luck? Maybe a little of both, but I don't give Cronin high water marks for acquiring him

RW3 has yet to be dealt so, remains to be seen what added value they get for him

Ayton is an albatross as a contract and as a player, likely dealt for something as an expiring contract next year, but I doubt it is much. Trading overpriced Nurkic for a MORE overpriced Ayton is only appealing if he can flip Ayton's contract for some assets

28 pick swap could be worthless, depending on POR pick conveying to CHI

29' pick, 30' MIL swap have value

Overall, Avdija\Camara, 28/30 swaps and 29 pick are a pretty good return for what was given out, but a lot is still outstanding as well (RW3, Ayton, will 28 swap convey, where do the (3) picks in 29' end up?), so could be better.

OTHER TRADES
No other way around it, and he may not have had much choice, but the Covington\Powell trade was BAD and CJ deal was not much better.

POR (Olshey) PAID a 1st to get Nance Jr (to CHI, still outstanding) and then Cronin ended up giving him away for little\nothing of value

Hart was later dealt for a 23' 1st (Kris Murray)

NAW was basically given away to UTA

One of the 2nd's POR received was used on Jabari Walker, who is an end of bench player that likely will be let go this offseason

Overall, the biggest trade, Dame, was a win IMO, Avdija trade could be a win (let's see where that 29 pick ends up and if POR can retain Deni). LAC deal bad, CJ deal marginally better

CONTRACTS - Given his supposed "pedigree\expertise" this is most concerning aspect of Cronin!s tenure

Simons contract (4yr\$100) - overpaid, considering that comparable players KCP (3yr\$66) & Monk (4yr\$78) signed this year for less

Matched Thybulle (3yr/$33) - Which was an overpay and unless dealt, a complete waste (no assets for retaining an asset?)

VASTLY overpaid for Jerami Grant (5yr\$160mil), nothing more to say here and it has been well chronicled by many as a bad contract

Overpaid for Payton II (3yr/$26) which hard capped POR in process, then subsequently dealt him away for (5) 2nd's, so a little bit of a wash there IMO, but the cap management, deserves to be questioned...

Signed Little to 4yr\$10.8, PHX waived him and ate the remaining years on his contract

Signed Nurkic to 4yr\$70, relegated to the bench, play has been subpar

Signed Reath, maybe he will net a 2nd rounder

Overall - For a guy whose strength lies in the CBA\cap, how badly that he has mismanaged both is disturbing. Overpaid nearly all of the players that he signed (most of which, were re-signing his own players)

wWhen you factor in his inability to prepare for the new CBA which you would expect him to know more than most, it reflects on him poorly

DRAFT - Overall, ok\TBD
22' Sharpe @ #7, Walker @ #59

Other players of note: -Jalen Willimas, Duren, Eason, Daniels, Sochan

Can't say that outside of Williams, i would trade Sharpe for any of the other players listed, and 11 other teams missed out on Williams as well. Walker @ #59 was a decent pickup, likely not an NBA player for long, but value wise, ok - Grade: A

23' Henderson @ #3, Murray @ #27, Rupert @ #43

Other players of note: Amen Thompson, Anthony Black, Bilal Coulibaly, Dereck Lively, Cam Whitmore, Gradey Dick, Brandin Podziemski

Scoot was the obviuos pick, I can't blame Cronin for bad luck (Miller) or use revisionist history.

There was a clear #1 and a Clear #2/#3, the debate was who would be #2 & who would be #3.

Amen Thompson may very well end up the better player and POR did bring him and his brother in, but they went with Scoot instead. Would drafting Amen have caused Dame to ask out as well? probably..

Murray @ #23, not overly inspiring, Cronin claiming they had a lottery grade on him does not reflect well on him either, however who else has been much better?

Strawther\DEN? Jackson Jr\MIL? Same w\Rupert @ #43. Camara does not count here, as they passed on him twice

Grade: B-

They drafted the consensus guy, missed (likely) on Amen whom they brought in and evaluated (and better fits the archetype of players' they usually go after?), but outside of Amen, there are no "wow, that was so obvious" picks IMO.

However, part of this grade IMO, is on their overall evaluation of Scoot, not knowing\understanding his weakness in playing within a system (running a structured offense) and that it would be a struggle for him to adapt. The athletic talent is there, what is b\t the ears is a concern.

24' Clingan @ #7, traded #14, sold #34 )3 - 2nd's) and #40 (cash)

Other players of note: Zach Edey, Dalton Knecht, Jared McCain

Grade: B

The pick of Clingan is an A IMO, didn't have to trade up to get him, other rumored players who were tied to them: Cody Williams\Buzelis\Salaun, have not really lit the world on fire.

Rumors were if Clingan was gone, they would have taken Edey or Knecht, both of whom are playing well, yet both are also 2 years older than Clingan.

I give Cronin a C-/D for the rest of this draft, #14 was used to get Avdija. #34 was sold for (3) 2nd's to offset the 2nd's they gave away IN the Avdija deal and #40 was sold for cash (twice).

I have serious issues with moves made in 2nd round, especially since there have been SEVERAL players that would have helped POR: Mitchell, Wells, Ighodaro, Larsson, or would have been worth investing in: Furphy, Klintman, Kolek, Djurisic (as a stash)

Overall B, Cronin has generally drafted ok, still a lot to be TBD though (particularly Scoot\Clingan) but has wasted draft assets.

So, decent performances via draft, ok performace in trade (uneven as a whole, better\TBD as of late, future ???) IMO bith are weighted down by his bad performance regarding the CBA\contracts.

Also a major factor here IMO, the retool over rebuild philosophy (bad, has not worked in multiple iterations) that he has championed, his hesitation to make deals, & apparent overvaluation of his own players which have negatively contributed to bad contracts & underwhelming trade returns.

[zzaj]

I gave him a D, flirted with a C, and after reading an article from way back in 2012, and all the praise they gave to him about being a "capologist", I think D is acurrate.

What did that article say?
https://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/2012/04/joe_cronin_self-made_nba_capologist_helps_put_blaz.html

Interim general manager Chad Buchanan and other members of the Trail Blazers' management team rave about Cronin's under-the-radar contributions to the organization and they regularly brag that he knows the CBA like the back of his hand. He's so in tune with the ins and outs of NBA salaries, they say, that he can spout off the top of his head contract details of every player in the NBA -- a list that stretches more than 400 players long.

Buchanan and president Larry Miller have taken to saying the Blazers are poised for a "reloading" project rather than a "rebuilding" project. And while it might seem as if they backed into this situation, the truth is they've been working behind the scenes for more than a year to lay the foundation to have this flexibility.

And the architect behind it all is Cronin, a 6-foot-6, former college role player and self-made NBA "capologist" who has guided the inexperienced Blazers front office through the financial details of the revamped CBA.

"There have been many times where I have thought, "Where would we be without him,'" Buchanan said of Cronin. "Because he just has such a strong grasp of the salary cap and the rules involving payroll. Any question involving the CBA, a trade or roster move or a particular salary, he knows it off the top of his head. He understands, basically, every single contract in the league, from the value of it to how it's structured."

Over the years, Cronin has studied the CBA weekly -- sometimes daily -- to become an expert. A day doesn't go by in which he doesn't study the salaries of every player and every team in the NBA.

How a "capologist" could have misjudged the effects of the new CBA and signed Grant to that ridiculous contract (an F), overpaid for Simons (D),

His biggest trade\s of Dame and then later Avdija? Here is the ledger on that:

Lillard, Nurkic, Little, Johnson, POR 24' 1st (#14), POR 28'/30' 2nd = Ayton, Avdija, Williams III, Camara, 2029 FRP, 2028 and 2030 FRP swaps.

Little is out of the league (PHX took the hit on the 4yr)
Keon Johnson is end of bench\back end player
Nurkic, whom Cronin overpaid, just got demoted to the bench by PHX
Lillard, already showing some signs of aging and still has (2) years left @ $54\$58.5mil

Avdija, has proven to be a nice piece, but the appropriate question is if he made this move too soon, as the team is not good enough for him to be that excellent complementary addition. Giving up (1), possibly (2) lottery picks + (2) 2nd's for a player who will be tricky to re-sign when it is up right before the pick (28') conveys

Camara was a nice addition to the MIL\PHX\POR trade, however I question their "desire" for him, given that had MULTIPLE opportunities to draft him (Murray\Rupert) yet passed. Strategy? Luck? Maybe a little of both, but I don't give him high water marks for that

RW3 has yet to be dealt so, remains to be seen

Ayton is an albatross as a contract and a player, likely dealt for something as expiring next year, but doubt it is much. Trading overprice Nurkic for MORE overpriced Ayton is only appealing if he can flip Ayton's contract for some assets

28 pick swap could be worthless, depending on POR pick conveying to CHI

29' pick, 30' MIL swap have value

Overall, Avdija\Camara, 28/30 swaps and 29 pick are pretty good for what was given out, but a lot is outstanding as well (RW3, Ayton, will 28 swap convey, where do the (3) picks in 29' end up?), so could be better.

OTHER TRADES
No other way around it, and he may not have had much choice, but Covington\Powell trade was BAD and CJ deal was not much better..

POR (Olshey) PAID a 1st to get Nance Jr (to CHI, still outstanding) and then ended up giving him away for little\nothing
Hart was later dealt for a 23' 1st (Kris Murray)
NAW was basically given away to UTA
One of the 2nd's the received was used on Jabari Walke, an end of bench player that likely will be let go this offseason

Overall, biggest trade Dame was a win IMO, Avdija trade could be a win (let's see where that 29 pick ends up and if POR can retain Deni). LAC deal bad, CJ deal

CONTRACTS - Given his supposed "pedigree\expertise" this is most concerning
Simons contract (4yr\$100) - overpaid - Given that comprable players KCP (3yr\$66) & Monk (4yr\$78) signed this year for less
Matched Thybulle (3yr/$33) - overpaid and unless dealt, a complete waste (no assets for retaining an asset?)
VASTLY overpaid for Jerami Grant (5yr\$160mil)
Overpaid for Payton (3yr/$26) AND hardcapped POR in process - subsequently dealt him away for (5) 2nd's, so a little bit of a wash there, but the cap management, deserves to be questioned...
Signed Little to 4yr\$10.8
Signed Nurkic to 4yr\$70
Signed Reath - ok, he may net a 2nd rounder

Overall - For a guy whose strength lies in the CBA\cap, how badly has mismanaged both is disturbing. Overpain nearly (all?) players he signed (most of which, were re-signing his own). and then especially when you factor in his inability to prepare for the new CBA. You would expect him to know this more than most

DRAFT - Overall, ok\TBD
22' Sharpe @ #7, Walker @ #59
Other players of note: -Jalen Willimas, Duren, Eason, Daniels, Sochan - Can't say that outside of Williams, i would trade Sharpe for any of the other players listed, and 11 other teams missed on him as well. walker @ #59 was decent pickup, likely not an NBA player for long, but value wise, ok - A

23' Henderson @ #3, Murray @ #27, Rupert @ #43
Other players of note: Amen Thompson, Anthony Black, Bilal Coulibaly, Dereck Lively, Cam Whitmore, Gradey Dick, Brandin Podziemski
Scoot was the obviuos pick, can't blame Cronin for bad luck (Miller) or use revisionist history. There was a clear #1 and a Clear #2/#3, the deabte was who at #2, who at #3. Amen Thompson may very well end up the better player and POR did bring him and his brother in, but went with Scoot instead. Would bringin inAmen have caused dame to ask out as well? probably..
Murray @ #23, who else has been much better? Strawther\DEN? Jackson Jr\MIL? Same w\Rupert @ #43. Camar does not count here
So B- here, the drafted the consensus guy, missed (likely) on Amen whom they brought in and evaluated (and better fits the type of players' they go after?), but outside of Amen, there are no "wow, that was so obvious" picks. Part of this grade IMO, is on their overall evaluation of Scoot, not knowing\understanding his weakness in playing within a system (running setes) and that it would be a struggle for him/ The atletic talent is there, what is b\t the ears is a concern.

24' Clingan @ #7, traded #14, sold #34 )3 - 2nd's) and #40 (cash)
Other players of note: Zach Edey, Dalton Knecht, Jared McCain
B, The pick of Clingan is an A IMO, didn't have to trade up to get him, other rumored players ti3ed to them, Cody Williams\Buzelis\Salaun, have not really lit the world on fire. Rumors were if Clingan was gne, they would have taken Ede or Knecht, both playing well, both also 2 years older than Clingan.
I give Cronin a C\D for the rest of this draft, #14 was used to get Avdija. #34 was sold for (3) 2nd's to offset the 2nd's they gave away IN the Avdija deal and #40 was sold for cash (twice). I have serious issues with moves made in 2nd rouns, especially since there have been SEVERAL players that would have helped POR: Mitchell, Wells, Ighodaro, Larsson, or would have been worth ivnesting in: Furphy, Klintman, Kolek, Djurisic (as a stash)

Overall B, has generally drafted ok, still a lot to be TBD (particularly Scoot\Clingan) but has missed on some and wasted draft assets.

So, decent performances via draft, ok performace in trade (uneven as a whole, better\TBD as of late, future ???) IMO is weighted down by bad performance in CBA\contracts.

Also a factor here, the retool over rebuild philosophy (bad, has not worked in multiple iterations), hesitation to make deals, & apparent overvaluation of his own players which have negatively contributed to contracts\trades.

Great overview, Walton1--I agree with basically everything here.

I'll point out that the context of the Lillard trade matters. A player publicly wanting out limits a GM, I suppose. Like you, I think Cronin did okay given the situation.